Portsmouth to be relegated?

8-10 · 16-07-2009 4:10pm #1

Currently 5/1 or 9/2 or thereabouts.

I was having a look at squads and players and Portsmouth are only one of a high number of poor teams this year. I reckon there's 6 or 7 who could get relegated without much surprise.

However after reading about Crouch's imminent move to Sunderland I had a look at who is actually left in the squad.

By my count, if Crouch and Distin (also strongly linked with a move away) leave this summer, Portsmouth will still be over £50million in debt and have only 14 outfield players in the squad. (I'm also excluding Linvoy Primus who has only been kept on so he can get 10yrs at the club and a testimonial, he's played once for them since 2006/07 season)

Thats:

Younes Kaboul
Hayden Mullins
Hermann Hreiðarsson
Papa Bouba Diop
David Nugent
John Utaka
Niko Kranjčar
Martin Cranie
Richard Hughes
Nwankwo Kanu
Angelos Basinas
Marc Wilson
Nadir Belhadj
Aaron Mokoena

Barely enough to make a match day squad.

Then half of these have made 17 appearances or less for Pompey, only 7 players have been first team for more than a season. Only Kanu has scored more than 10 goals for them. And 5 are in their 30's.

And who's steering the boat? Paul Hart. On a temporary basis. So they still have no manager for the season.

Sulamain al-Fahim has been rumoured to takeover but there's the new 'fit and proper persons' rule to get around as well as 2 months of trying to finance the deal already elapsed. If it eventually goes through, how quickly can they finance new signings and complete them? Only a few weeks to go.

Anyway I'm rambling a bit. I'm putting on the bet because that squad of players (+ David James of course, who's injured) doesn't give me that much confidence. What do you think?

premierstone · 16-07-2009 4:29pm

Few of them will be missing in January aswell cos of the ANC, so definitely value at that price.

x in the city · 16-07-2009 4:33pm

They look crap alright, but its a tad bit early to make assumptions on relegation.

Betting on a newcomer to stay up might be more viable. like the Brummies

Morzadec · 16-07-2009 7:17pm

I was thinking about this earlier. WHere can you get 5/1?

You make a very convincing argument...

Headshot · 16-07-2009 7:36pm

great thinking from OP

Bobeagleburger · 16-07-2009 7:42pm

I think these teams may be fighting it out this year. Burnley,Wolves, Birmingham, Stoke and Hull.

Not to mention a weakened Wigan along with Pompy.

8-10 · 16-07-2009 7:42pm

Morzadec wrote: »

I was thinking about this earlier. WHere can you get 5/1?

partybets.com but unless you aready have a partypoker account or something it's not worth depositing, they have worse odds on nearly everything.

But it is the only place I found 5/1, tried WHill, Lads, PP, 365 and Betfair at least.

eclectichoney · 16-07-2009 7:46pm

is there anywhere you can back multiple teams to be relegated? Like a combination of three (I fancy Burnley, Pompey & Wigan). Everywhere I can only see individual teams.

8-10 · 16-07-2009 7:49pm

rarnes1 wrote: »

I think these teams may be fighting it out this year. Burnley,Wolves, Birmingham, Stoke and Hull.

Not to mention a weakened Wigan along with Pompy.

Yep, as I said a lot of poor teams. I was thinking also along the lines of going into administration and docked points. If it's going to happen to a PL team it could be them. They have serious financial problems hence selling their best players (ie nearly the entire FA Cup winning side). I think the Glen Johnson deal was so attractive to them because they still owed Liverpool for Crouch and they could offset it.

But a takeover looks likely at some stage, I just don't see them being ready for the season if they don't get someone in before the window closes.

Of all the teams you mentioned, Pompey are the longest price and I don't see them with much of a better survival chance.

eclectichoney · 16-07-2009 7:56pm

8-10 wrote: »

Yep, as I said a lot of poor teams. I was thinking also along the lines of going into administration and docked points. If it's going to happen to a PL team it could be them. They have serious financial problems hence selling their best players (ie nearly the entire FA Cup winning side). I think the Glen Johnson deal was so attractive to them because they still owed Liverpool for Crouch and they could offset it.

But a takeover looks likely at some stage, I just don't see them being ready for the season if they don't get someone in before the window closes.

Of all the teams you mentioned, Pompey are the longest price and I don't see them with much of a better survival chance.

Even if they do get taken over (which i think is reasonably likely), and get an influx of funds, most of the decent, buyable players will already be taken by other teams (*cough* man city *cough*). God knows they struggled last year even with Crouch, Johnson et al. The more i think about it, the better it looks! Could be a decent bet.

Edit: You can get 22/1 on PP that they'll finish rock bottom!

SoCo2009 · 16-07-2009 9:26pm

Good spot!!

Bobeagleburger · 16-07-2009 9:48pm

But aren't Portsmouth being taken over by a billionaire from Dubai?

ArmaniJeanss · 16-07-2009 9:57pm

eclectichoney wrote: »

is there anywhere you can back multiple teams to be relegated? Like a combination of three (I fancy Burnley, Pompey & Wigan). Everywhere I can only see individual teams.

The bookies are actually doing you a big favour by only allowing you to do singles at the prices they quote.

This is because the odds quoted are on the basis of 3 relegation spots, e.g, Burnley are ~1/2 to occupy one of the bottom 3 places which is a reasonable price... in your bet above Pompey and Wigan occupy 2 of the bottom three places and thus there is only one place left for Burnley and 1/2 is suddenly dreadful value.

So if you do see a bookie allowing multiples on this market, only do it if they offer a 200% bonus for trebles, otherwise you are being taken for a mug.

funnyname · 17-07-2009 9:56am

I backed it 2 weeks ago €30 at 6/1

Gillington · 20-07-2009 12:41pm

funnyname wrote: »

I backed it 2 weeks ago €30 at 6/1

Where did you get it 6/1? I know we wont get that now with the Crouch move imminent but it'd be nice to know.

funnyname · 20-07-2009 1:50pm

Boylesports

I use www.oddschecker.com to find the best odds available.

HoPpiE · 21-07-2009 12:53pm

Seems as though Portsmouth have the ownership agenda sorted.

8-10 · 21-07-2009 2:54pm

HoPpiE wrote: »

Seems as though Portsmouth have the ownership agenda sorted.

Yep, though they're now 3/1 with PP. Hart has been given the managerial job permanently. Surprised Sven wasn't offered it. Still looks like Crouch and Distin will go so it's up to Paul Hart to get some players in sharpish.

Mezcita · 21-07-2009 5:25pm

8-10 wrote: »

so it's up to Paul Hart to get some players in sharpish.

Exactly. They are leaving it very late to get in new players.

Interesting to see how this pans out. Thought Pompey were absolute rubbish last year under Hart.

Rybka · 22-07-2009 1:17am

4/1 on Betfair.

With Stoke, Birmingham, Wolves, Hull, Bolton, Burnley, Wigan, Sunderland, Blackburn and Portsmouth likely to fight it out.

4/1 seems ok.

Bubs101 · 22-07-2009 4:06am

Their team is fairly bad but I'd wait to see if they bring anyone in because they do have money, Kranjar and James

Mezcita · 26-07-2009 10:08pm

This is looking better by the day. Looks like Crouch is off to Spurs and they appear to be in real financial trouble. You can still get 6.0 at PartyBets and Gamebookers.com.

http://www.teamtalk.com/football/story/0,16368,1782_5454127,00.html

"Hart, who last week signed a two-and-a-half year deal to remain with the south coast club, claimed it was a result of a bid to balance the books following a period of unrealistic spending under Redknapp.

"Obviously I'm disappointed to see Peter leave, but given the severe financial restraints in place here we had no choice but to accept an offer from Tottenham," he told the Daily Mirror.

"I think people need to realise that Pompey have been punching above their weight and could no longer sustain the level of spending that has gone on here over the last three years."

Hart also insisted that the takeover spearheaded by Dr Sulaiman Al Fahim would not lead to a Manchester City style spending spree.

"Even though a new owner is poised to come in, our dealings in the market will be modest in comparison to the past," added Hart."

fumyname · 27-07-2009 1:34pm

great spot had this backed last year then they went and sacked addams

which cost me...

however this year there will be no miracle

possibly the worst squad in the premiership at the moment..well at least the weakest in depth

MrMiyagi · 27-07-2009 10:16pm

Burnley are definately going down and not bad at 1/2

What do you guys think about Man City finishing 5th?

tommyfitz · 30-07-2009 3:01pm

On a slightly differerent note.
Newcastle are 9/2 favourites to win Championship but only 12/1 to be relegated.
WBA are about 6/1 to win but 40/1 to be relegated.

8-10 · 30-07-2009 3:07pm

tommyfitz wrote: »

On a slightly differerent note.
Newcastle are 9/2 favourites to win Championship but only 12/1 to be relegated.
WBA are about 6/1 to win but 40/1 to be relegated.

Yeah I had a look at Newcastle's odds yesterday, I reckon the 12/1 is to cover the potential 30point deduction if they go into administration following reports that Ashley might take a £100m loss and just walk away. If it were about 20/1 or longer I would have taken it.

tommyfitz · 30-07-2009 3:22pm

8-10 wrote: »

Yeah I had a look at Newcastle's odds yesterday, I reckon the 12/1 is to cover the potential 30point deduction if they go into administration following reports that Ashley might take a £100m loss and just walk away. If it were about 20/1 or longer I would have taken it.

well if they do get 30 point deduction they WILL DEFINATELY go down.
There is no team spirit there. I backed them to relegated last season at 20/1 so I might re-invest at 12/1

Nulty · 01-08-2009 4:09am

tommyfitz wrote: »

On a slightly differerent note.
Newcastle are 9/2 favourites to win Championship but ....

LAY

Edit-

TBH, I hate betting on things that last 8 months. No fun and too much time for things to completely change

x MarK x · 02-08-2009 4:22am

8-10 wrote: »

Currently 5/1 or 9/2 or thereabouts.

I was having a look at squads and players and Portsmouth are only one of a high number of poor teams this year. I reckon there's 6 or 7 who could get relegated without much surprise.

However after reading about Crouch's imminent move to Sunderland I had a look at who is actually left in the squad.

By my count, if Crouch and Distin (also strongly linked with a move away) leave this summer, Portsmouth will still be over £50million in debt and have only 14 outfield players in the squad. (I'm also excluding Linvoy Primus who has only been kept on so he can get 10yrs at the club and a testimonial, he's played once for them since 2006/07 season)

Thats:

Younes Kaboul
Hayden Mullins
Hermann Hreiðarsson
Papa Bouba Diop
David Nugent
John Utaka
Niko Kranjčar
Martin Cranie
Richard Hughes
Nwankwo Kanu
Angelos Basinas
Marc Wilson
Nadir Belhadj
Aaron Mokoena

Barely enough to make a match day squad.

Then half of these have made 17 appearances or less for Pompey, only 7 players have been first team for more than a season. Only Kanu has scored more than 10 goals for them. And 5 are in their 30's.

And who's steering the boat? Paul Hart. On a temporary basis. So they still have no manager for the season.

Sulamain al-Fahim has been rumoured to takeover but there's the new 'fit and proper persons' rule to get around as well as 2 months of trying to finance the deal already elapsed. If it eventually goes through, how quickly can they finance new signings and complete them? Only a few weeks to go.

Anyway I'm rambling a bit. I'm putting on the bet because that squad of players (+ David James of course, who's injured) doesn't give me that much confidence. What do you think?

Thats defo good value. They ARE goin down.

5starpool · 02-08-2009 5:19am

The only thing that might save portsmouth is that there should be a lot of fairly weak teams this season. They will be right in there, but any 3 from the following can go down I reckon:

Portsmouth
Wolves
Birmingham
Hull
Burnley
Wigan

And I'm sure one or two others like Bolton might be close to it as well.

8-10 · 04-08-2009 1:45pm

From BBC.co.uk today:

Pompey may face more player sales

Portsmouth executive chairman Peter Storrie says the club may have to sell more players if Sulaiman Al Fahim's takeover is further delayed. Pompey are desperately awaiting the switch of ownership from Alexandre Gaydamak to Al Fahim to be completed.

Storrie told The Sun newspaper: "Until this takeover happens, neither the old nor the new owner is placing any money into the business."

Portsmouth have also released six out-of-contract players this summer.

"The business has debts to pay and the banks are not releasing funds, so this leaves the club with no option but to sell to keep going," said Storrie.

"I agree we need new players, a stadium, but we can't do it without finance and we've had none of this for more than nine months."

Latest is they're trying to get Amr Zaki in on loan. Blackburn got the Croatian chap that they couldn't finance the move for, and Stevie Finnan has joined on a free since starting this thread. Distin hasn't left yet but still should.

Personally think Birmingham have the squad to stay up as well as Wigan. I reckon Wolves, Hull, Stoke, Burnley and Pompey in the mix.

Portsmouth to be relegated?

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