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A few large bets per year...

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  • 16-05-2008 11:47pm
    #1
    AARRRGH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,382 ✭✭✭✭


    I've made a few 5k bets. Thank **** they all won.

    There are obvious results, for example the Champions League final, under 2.5 goals is a near guaranteed result.

    The odds on this are currently 1/2 on Paddy Power.

    So you put 20k on this. That's nearly 10k guaranteed.

    You wait a few months for another guaranteed game, for example, Man U at home against Sunderland.

    You make about 4 bets per year.

    Do you think it can be done?


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    #2
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Stupid to be honest.

    There are no guarantees in gambling.

    You do it for the craic and hope that a well judged *guess* comes off, because at the end of the day all it is is a guess.


    Obviously if you have a very large bank there are methods that can make you say a 10% increase on your bank monthly, but this takes alot of effort, time and learning.

    Most people are just looking to make a quick buck and have a larf.

    Throwing 5k on an uncertainty like that is just careless and unless your very well off could not be fun, more likely it would be an extremely stressful event.


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    #3
    Culchie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,047 ✭✭✭Culchie


    dublindude wrote: »
    I've made a few 5k bets. Thank **** they all won.

    There are obvious results, for example the Champions League final, under 2.5 goals is a near guaranteed result.

    The odds on this are currently 1/2 on Paddy Power.

    So you put 20k on this. That's nearly 10k guaranteed.

    You wait a few months for another guaranteed game, for example, Man U at home against Sunderland.

    You make about 4 bets per year.

    Do you think it can be done?

    wtf?

    Sure wasn't there 3 goals between them 2 weeks ago ffs .... hardly convincing 'cert' material.

    Put your 5k in Rabodirect and get your 6% interest ....that's a cert.


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    #4
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,140 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    dublindude wrote: »

    So you put 20k on this. That's nearly 10k guaranteed

    Guaranteed???
    I find your idea of a guarantee pretty funny.

    Firstly, if i was to place a large belike that, it would on on pddy power or any bookies site.

    I also think that the value is on the other side of that bet


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    #5
    Chucky the tree
    Closed Accounts Posts: 19,341 ✭✭✭✭Chucky the tree


    http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/eng_prem/4890624.stm


    lolguaranteedaments


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    #6
    hotspur
    Registered Users Posts: 2,327 ✭✭✭hotspur


    Yes it can be done, people buy money all the time, and I used to myself. The truth is that it is still a long term game and you have to be taking the best of it odds wise. The absolute odds of a bet are not as important as you think, the value of it is. Doing 20-1 on shots every month is only a good idea if the true odds of these bets are under 20-1 on. Sometimes people get confused about this and just think "ah sure it's guaranteed" without reference to what they think are representative odds.

    Whatever about the already laughed at notion of under 2.5 goals being guaranteed, you have to have a method of appraising the odds yourself and be better than the bookies are some of the time. What odds do you think under 2.5 goals should be, and how did you arrive at that? Until you can answer that then you are just not informed enough about what you are doing and are virtually guaranteed to lose in the long run.

    Also, you don't get value from bookies in the Champions League final for God's sake.

    You have a lot of learning to do about the nature of sports gambling profitably, right now you are probably making -EV bets most of the time.


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    #7
    Bluetonic
    Registered Users Posts: 7,588 ✭✭✭Bluetonic


    Culchie wrote: »
    wtf?

    Sure wasn't there 3 goals between them 2 weeks ago ffs .... hardly convincing 'cert' material.
    That was a different match played under different circumstances.

    Chelsea had to win that game, therefore the whole makeup of the game was completely different to the how the CL final will be played.

    You are not comparing like with like. The ability to understand this at a more complex level is what distinguishes someone who understands where the value is in a market over someone who hasn't a clue.


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    #8
    redfan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 752 ✭✭✭redfan


    goal prediction bets are nuts . man u v derby for example 1.nil in the primership .
    anyways . i think the top 2 teams at home take a choice and do a single bet of approx 3/10 high stake . bottom 3 clubs. bound to fold against big teams.and get a pool of money to one side and use that for your gambling.
    brother does this every year. hasnt failed yet.
    but gambling can be a very dangerous thing . as we all know .
    the bookie will almost always come out on top.


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    #9
    AdrianII
    Registered Users Posts: 1,488 ✭✭✭AdrianII


    dublindude wrote: »
    I've made a few 5k bets. Thank **** they all won.

    There are obvious results, for example the Champions League final, under 2.5 goals is a near guaranteed result.

    The odds on this are currently 1/2 on Paddy Power.

    So you put 20k on this. That's nearly 10k guaranteed.


    That is the most stupid thing i ever heard, here are the last 4 champions league final, all with 3 or more goals

    2006/07 AC Milan 2 – 1 Liverpool FC
    2005/06 FC Barcelona 2 – 1 Arsenal
    2004/05 Liverpool FC 3 – 3 AC Milan
    2003/04 FC Porto 3 – 0 AS Monaco FC

    going by your maths you would be down 80K,

    dont be a fool by taking a chance on a one off game, an early goal or a sending off could cost you big


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    #10
    AARRRGH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,382 ✭✭✭✭AARRRGH


    Eh, relax everyone, I was just throwing the idea out there!
    Bluetonic wrote: »
    That was a different match played under different circumstances.

    Chelsea had to win that game, therefore the whole makeup of the game was completely different to the how the CL final will be played.

    You are not comparing like with like. The ability to understand this at a more complex level is what distinguishes someone who understands where the value is in a market over someone who hasn't a clue.

    Thank you. I also think people are simplifying here.


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    #11
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,140 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    hotspur wrote: »
    Whatever about the already laughed at notion of under 2.5 goals being guaranteed, you have to have a method of appraising the odds yourself and be better than the bookies are some of the time. What odds do you think under 2.5 goals should be, and how did you arrive at that? Until you can answer that then you are just not informed enough about what you are doing and are virtually guaranteed to lose in the long run.
    This is spot on, and its pretty much what I said. There is little value in CLF bets, but there is cetainly more value on the over 2.5 side. Even with bookies odds.
    Bluetonic wrote: »
    You are not comparing like with like. The ability to understand this at a more complex level is what distinguishes someone who understands where the value is in a market over someone who hasn't a clue.
    I agree that it is a different match, and the the circumstances are different. But your suggestion that seeing that it is a different game is more complex that distingushing the value is ludacris. Its just down right wrong, simply because to distinguih the vlue you must clude the match conditions.

    I firmly believe that the value is on the other side here, purely to the odds,
    If I wasgoing to have a bet on the number of goals, i' probably go for 2 or goals at evens, if I was, I still don't think its value.
    dublindude wrote: »
    Eh, relax everyone, I was just throwing the idea out there!

    Thank you. I also think people are simplifying here.

    Why do you think people are simplifying it?
    Its wrong down to the EV of the bet, thats hardly simple. If antthink i'd say you simplified it.


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    #12
    Bubs101
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,478 ✭✭✭Bubs101


    Pure and simple, there are no guarantees in gambling. If you bet like that you are heading for a fall


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    #13
    Culchie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,047 ✭✭✭Culchie


    Bluetonic wrote: »
    That was a different match played under different circumstances.

    Chelsea had to win that game, therefore the whole makeup of the game was completely different to the how the CL final will be played.

    You are not comparing like with like. The ability to understand this at a more complex level is what distinguishes someone who understands where the value is in a market over someone who hasn't a clue.

    Thanks, but I think I grasp this 'complex level' of thinking. I felt it was bordering on patronising, but hey, maybe I'm over sensitive.

    Anyways

    1999 2-1
    2000 3-0
    2001 1-1*
    2002 1-2
    2003 0-0*
    2004 3-0
    2005 3-3
    2006 2-1
    2007 2-1

    2 of the last 9 champions league finals had more than 2.5 goals, so whether the game in question ends with less than 2.5 goals in 2008 it doesn't matter .... it will be agianst current form and recent history.

    Taking this bet at 1/2 is stupidity of the highest degree .... whether you but a tenner on it, or ten grand on it.


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    #14
    cardshark202
    Registered Users Posts: 5,434 ✭✭✭cardshark202


    Paddy Power says thanks to you dublindude


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    #15
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,140 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Bubs101 wrote: »
    Pure and simple, there are no guarantees in gambling. If you bet like that you are heading for a fall
    thats true, guaranteed........wait a sec


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    #16
    AARRRGH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,382 ✭✭✭✭AARRRGH


    Mellor wrote: »
    There is little value in CLF bets, but there is cetainly more value on the over 2.5 side.

    In a Manu Chelsea final? Explain.


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    #17
    myflipflops
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,817 ✭✭✭myflipflops


    dublindude wrote: »
    In a Manu Chelsea final? Explain.


    Just spotted this thread. It has inspired me to post a proper one on the idea of value versus picking winners when i get the chance but for now I'll give my opinion on this.

    Dublindude, your bet on under 2.5 golas in the United game is probably the most likely occurence (i think Mellor agrees with this). Mellor's statement that there is more value in backing the overs is based purely on the price. 1/2 is a chronically short price for the unders (a bet whose real price is probably 4/6 or 8/11). Quite simply, you are taking odds that are way worse than the actual chances of it happening.

    The bookies have clearly gone very short on the under 2.5 goals so naturally, the price of the over goals becomes bigger. As such, the 6/4 you are getting on over 2.5 goals is actually the correct price (if it should be 4/6 unders the 6/4 is right for the overs). This all leads to the fact the backing the overs is way more value than the unders. Bookies will be delighted to take your bet safe in the knowledge that the price they are laying is great business for them. Bets like this are the reason they post great figures every year - the majority of their customers have no idea about value and frankly don't care.

    The debate here is not (or at least should not) be about how many goals will be in the CL final (one for the soccer forum), it is simply about where the value in the market is and it is quite clearly in backing the overs.

    Either way, best of look with the bet.


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    #18
    lolkelly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 183 ✭✭lolkelly


    pwhite587 wrote: »
    Just spotted this thread. It has inspired me to post a proper one on the idea of value versus picking winners when i get the chance but for now I'll give my opinion on this.

    Dublindude, your bet on under 2.5 golas in the United game is probably the most likely occurence (i think Mellor agrees with this). Mellor's statement that there is more value in backing the overs is based purely on the price. 1/2 is a chronically short price for the unders (a bet whose real price is probably 4/6 or 8/11). Quite simply, you are taking odds that are way worse than the actual chances of it happening.

    The bookies have clearly gone very short on the under 2.5 goals so naturally, the price of the over goals becomes bigger. As such, the 6/4 you are getting on over 2.5 goals is actually the correct price (if it should be 4/6 unders the 6/4 is right for the overs). This all leads to the fact the backing the overs is way more value than the unders. Bookies will be delighted to take your bet safe in the knowledge that the price they are laying is great business for them. Bets like this are the reason they post great figures every year - the majority of their customers have no idea about value and frankly don't care.

    The debate here is not (or at least should not) be about how many goals will be in the CL final (one for the soccer forum), it is simply about where the value in the market is and it is quite clearly in backing the overs.

    Either way, best of look with the bet.

    Value was discussed on this forum a couple of weeks back (http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055268591&page=1). Unfortunately the majority of people don’t see to get the fact that this is the crucial factor in making money from betting in the long term.

    To the OP if you don’t understand the term value and you are placing 5k bets you are either extremely rich or extremely lucky.


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    #19
    myflipflops
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,817 ✭✭✭myflipflops


    lolkelly wrote: »
    Value was discussed on this forum a couple of weeks back (http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055268591&page=1). Unfortunately the majority of people don’t see to get the fact that this is the crucial factor in making money from betting in the long term.

    To the OP if you don’t understand the term value and you are placing 5k bets you are either extremely rich or extremely lucky.

    Thanks God i missed that discussion. I would have exploded.


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    #20
    maxi-twist
    Closed Accounts Posts: 310 ✭✭maxi-twist


    Yeah its a great idea, until you go for wales against fiji in the RWC and fiji win and you lose all the money u've made! That was a stupid bet tho, i hadnt done my hw.


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    #21
    hotspur
    Registered Users Posts: 2,327 ✭✭✭hotspur


    pwhite587 wrote: »
    Thanks God i missed that discussion. I would have exploded.

    I actually did and deserved a ban. Trolling has nothing on genuine ignorance.


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    #22
    kincsem
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,013 ✭✭✭kincsem


    Try to get your head around the idea that the odds offered approximate the chance of the event happening.


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    #23
    AARRRGH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,382 ✭✭✭✭AARRRGH


    Of course I understand the concept of value, but if something is not going to happen, i.e. over 2.5 goals, the value means nothing.

    I'm not a bad gambler. I used to work for a bookies. My account was up a few thousand. 99.9% of the accounts I saw were down.

    I bet on what I think will happen. I don't let the odds influence my decision making. It is a system which has worked for me.

    Note I only bet on the odd game. Results I think are as close to guaranteed as possible.

    You can bet on the "value" tonight, over 2.5 goals, but the only people who are going to get value out of that are the bookies!

    We'll find out in a few hours anyway :)

    I'll happily apologise if there are more than 2.5 goals.


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    #24
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,140 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    dublindude wrote: »
    Of course I understand the concept of value,
    I don't mean to sound rude, my I don't think that you do.
    I am basising this on the following
    ...but if something is not going to happen, i.e. over 2.5 goals, the value means nothing.
    I bet on what I think will happen. I don't let the odds influence my decision making. It is a system which has worked for me.

    Saying that over 2.5 won't happen is wrong. Very wrong, this is not the same as saying it probably won't* It might happen.
    Not letting the odds affect your decision is also pretty bad gambling. Under 2.5 is more likely, but at a certain point the other side is a better bet.
    Extremes are always better examples, say over 2.5 goals was 100/1 what would you choose?


    *If it happens or not tonight has no implications on the value in this bet. Its a single bet and one side must win, too small a sample to prove anything


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    #25
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,511 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Left the game alone since I'd imagine the bookies would have their prices perfectly set for the occasion. I'd rather be on the over than under right now score as it is.


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    #26
    AARRRGH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,382 ✭✭✭✭AARRRGH


    And my winning continues.

    Yep, I don't know what I'm doing.


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    #27
    AARRRGH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,382 ✭✭✭✭AARRRGH


    Mellor wrote: »
    Extremes are always better examples, say over 2.5 goals was 100/1 what would you choose?

    That's ridiculous.

    I would not have bet on the game with those odds.

    There is no point going for "value" if the value bet won't happen.

    I consistently win, making a few large bets per year.

    I'm sorry if that annoys you. That's not my intention.


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    #28
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,140 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    I already said that the result of the match has no bearing on weither you are right or wrong.
    Still sounds like you don't understand value,
    Value isn't the best price, its the best return based on chances of happening.

    After seeing the match, you stand by your original comments that under 2.5 goals was "guaranteed". I doubt it.
    It was lucky to be only 2. I'd say it was a nervous second half for you.
    There is no point going for "value" if the value bet won't happen
    Won't happen?
    A little results based thinking there I feel. Utd got an early goal, and were unlucky not to make it two. Chelsea hit the post in the second half, and a goal could of poped up anywhere.

    Based on the price of 1/2 I think that under 2.5 Goals was a bad bet.

    I think that my bet of 2 or 3 goals at evens is far better due to the price.


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    #29
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,511 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    dublindude wrote: »
    That's ridiculous.

    I would not have bet on the game with those odds.

    There is no point going for "value" if the value bet won't happen.

    I consistently win, making a few large bets per year.

    I'm sorry if that annoys you. That's not my intention.

    I don't think anyone would of came in gloating over a loss if it went the other way. The way the game went it didn't feel like it was certain to happen. (The initial reason for people responding to your original post the way they did).

    Nevertheless you won this one. Well done. Tell us your next one whenever it may be.


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    #30
    AARRRGH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,382 ✭✭✭✭AARRRGH


    Well, I said I would come back and apologise if I was wrong, so I reckon it's ok to come and gloat cause I won :)

    I'll create a new topic when my next psycho bet comes around.


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    #31
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,140 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    well congrats on the win,
    if you keep winning i'd be happy to come along for the ride,
    Celtic for SPL? :)


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