South Africa - the future

I predict that within 10 years South Africa will be like Zimbabwe is now. Unfortunately the ANC are just not capable of running a modern economy. It didn’t take them long to ruin the country after apartheid did it?

silverharp wrote: »

on the positive side SA has alot of natural resources which should support the economy. However given the artificial boarders of many African states maybe has sealed their fate, I don't know how much this applies to SA

Natural resources are not much use if you don’t have the brains to exploit them, or worse still squander them. South Africa since the end of apartheid is unfortunately a disaster waiting to happen.

I chat regularly with a lady from South Africa and she tells me that a lot of the younger whites are leaving; if that becomes an exodus the country will sink a lot faster.

bartholomewbinn wrote: »

I predict that within 10 years South Africa will be like Zimbabwe is now. Unfortunately the ANC are just not capable of running a modern economy. It didn’t take them long to ruin the country after apartheid did it?

It's strange that everyone blames the ANC for ****ing it up when they've done things like privatize state assets and allowing corporations that have gotten rich off the subsidies of the state as well as the labour of the people to take their profits out of the country. "We" would never do anything so crazy.

Moriarty wrote: »

Or would this be your perennial "capitalism=bad" contribution to the thread?

Yup

I travel to South Africa about 5/6 times a year (for business reasons) and have done so for the last seven years.

some observations, make of them what you will!

1. The economy is generally strong, fuelled by the global commodities boom. There is a swelling black middle class, aided and abetted by the BEE (Black Economic Empowerment) policies of the government. Real wealth is being created.
They have experienced a property bubble much like ours, however given that, unlike us, they have control of their own monetary policy, they are being much more proactive in bursting this (interest rates are in double figues).
Wealth is still hugely unevenly spread. You can drive from the slums of Alexandria to the Beverly Hills-esque mansions of Sandton in 10 minutes. The comparison is not a pretty one. You can see why a populist politican such as Zuma would make headway easily amongst the townships.

2. Crime rates remain stubbornly high (way beyond our comprehension on this safe little island). There is a scarily high murder rate - up to 50 a day in Johannesburg. People are living in fear - rich and poor alike in their gated, heavily armed communities. There is a huge availability of all sorts of weaponry. The police are both corrupt and incompetent - detection rates are pathetic. The police forces are also heavily politicised, to the extent that rival politicans within the ANC are using them against each other (just look at the Jackie Selebi saga recently).
To me, this is the main reason why I would never move my family to SA (I've been offered this chance many times)

3. The white population has defied all predictions of its demise. Sure, large amounts of white South Africans have emigrated to the UK, Australia, Canada and even here. Many have also returned to SA. They still control a vast amount of the country's wealth and economic life.
The whites are badly needed, even the unrepentant racists (of which there are many) as they have the necessary skills to keep the country moving forward, particularly economically. Just look at what has happened to Eskom as the layer of white technocrats was shed in favour of ANC patronage - result = total chaos aka load shedding

4. The good stuff: South Africa is one of the most exciting places to visit on the entire planet. It's blessed with great weather, beautiful scenery, incredible heritage from all tribal and ethnic backgrounds, superb food and drink. It's cheap for us Euro-weenies.

5. The future. Mbeki's presidency has been a triumph of stability (particularly economic) on one hand. On the other, he has allowed serious crises to fester which, if not dealt with quickly, have the potential to tip SA into 'basket case' territory.
AIDS: the government has totally and abjectly failed to deal with the AIDS crisis facing SA.
Corruption: SA has nothing on most sub-Saharan states when it comes to corruption however it is growing and there are worrying signs that it is becoming endemic. The Shabir Shaikh/Zuma trial has the potential to be a watershed in this regard.
Education: the state education system is a disgrace in many areas with teachers not bothering to turn up and no textbooks being issued to students. the long-term implications are obvious.
Zimbabwe; SA continues to prop up the Mugabe regime. This is a disgrace.

6. Race relations: I'm always amazed by this when I go to SA. I have never seen an inter-racial couple! Apartheid may be long gone, thank God, but racial segregation still continues along tribal/ethnic lines.

El Stuntman wrote: »

I travel to South Africa about 5/6 times a year (for business reasons) and have done so for the last seven years.

some observations, make of them what you will!

1. The economy is generally strong, fuelled by the global commodities boom. There is a swelling black middle class, aided and abetted by the BEE (Black Economic Empowerment) policies of the government. Real wealth is being created.

I'm not sure the wealth has been created as it's been moved from one group to another and the people at the bottom have not benefited.

They have experienced a property bubble much like ours, however given that, unlike us, they have control of their own monetary policy, they are being much more proactive in bursting this (interest rates are in double figues).

But they have still allowed much speculation, especially from foreignors which has made many natives have to move out of the city centre and made them foreignors in their own land.
Are you saying the Bertie et al could not have also protected Ireland from rampant speculation and cheap money because of the EU?

Wealth is still hugely unevenly spread. You can drive from the slums of Alexandria to the Beverly Hills-esque mansions of Sandton in 10 minutes. The comparison is not a pretty one. You can see why a populist politican such as Zuma would make headway easily amongst the townships.

I agree and its the root of most problems in SA.

2. Crime rates remain stubbornly high (way beyond our comprehension on this safe little island). There is a scarily high murder rate - up to 50 a day in Johannesburg. People are living in fear - rich and poor alike in their gated, heavily armed communities. There is a huge availability of all sorts of weaponry. The police are both corrupt and incompetent - detection rates are pathetic. The police forces are also heavily politicised, to the extent that rival politicans within the ANC are using them against each other (just look at the Jackie Selebi saga recently).
To me, this is the main reason why I would never move my family to SA (I've been offered this chance many times)

I believe this is a result of desperate poverty in SA. Once this is seriously address then crime and corruption will subside.
I would never want to live there again myself. I used be constantly stressed whenever my partner used to go home to visit on her own.
When I was visiting there and living there I often could not sleep at night because you worried about any strange noise you heard.

3. The white population has defied all predictions of its demise. Sure, large amounts of white South Africans have emigrated to the UK, Australia, Canada and even here. Many have also returned to SA. They still control a vast amount of the country's wealth and economic life.
The whites are badly needed, even the unrepentant racists (of which there are many) as they have the necessary skills to keep the country moving forward, particularly economically. Just look at what has happened to Eskom as the layer of white technocrats was shed in favour of ANC patronage - result = total chaos aka load shedding

True they need every citizen to do their part for the country. To me it's obvious that whites are going to have to give up the privilege and the wealth they were accustomed to under Apartheid if society as a whole is going to progress. That alone will send a few packing...so be it.
I wonder how much of what is going on with Eskom has to do with black empowerment and how much privatization caused the current situation seeing as many other developing countries that have followed the same model are in a similar situation.

4. The good stuff: South Africa is one of the most exciting places to visit on the entire planet. It's blessed with great weather, beautiful scenery, incredible heritage from all tribal and ethnic backgrounds, superb food and drink. It's cheap for us Euro-weenies.

I agree. Cape Town is one of the most beautiful cities I've ever seen. The Transkai is full of untouched beaches and landscape. Gemsbok (has a indigenous name now) nature reserve blows Kruger away and is probably the best in the Kalahari (ok I've never been Botswana).
That's all well and good for us tourists though.

5. The future. Mbeki's presidency has been a triumph of stability (particularly economic) on one hand. On the other, he has allowed serious crises to fester which, if not dealt with quickly, have the potential to tip SA into 'basket case' territory.

In terms of economy things might be stable. However ever increasing poverty and the divide between the top and bottom grows steadily. Luckily for Mbeki he might not have to deal with the extreme outcome of that scenario. Something that will probably leave it like the other "banana republics" of Africa

AIDS: the government has totally and abjectly failed to deal with the AIDS crisis facing SA.

I agree as well. Mbeki's abdication of responsibility and statement that HIV did not cause AIDS was criminal.
However "our" drug companies and governments have a lot to answer for.
There was pressure from both to keep cheap SA developed AIDS drugs off the market as well as use of trade agreements to keep AIDS drugs criminally expensive.

Corruption: SA has nothing on most sub-Saharan states when it comes to corruption however it is growing and there are worrying signs that it is becoming endemic. The Shabir Shaikh/Zuma trial has the potential to be a watershed in this regard.

I think Zuma's populist appeal will keep him around for a while to come. Unfortunately I think he's just an opportunist and probably a criminal.

Zimbabwe; SA continues to prop up the Mugabe regime. This is a disgrace.

It is a disgrace but you have to understand that Mugabe is an old ally that they will not easily sideline. The utter hypocrisy in Blair's breathless(and other English speaking leaders of the world) denunciations of Mugabe whilst the Saudi Royal family get a parade through London is not lost on someone like Mbeki or any other African leader who had to deal with the excesses of the SADF/CIA "back in tha day".

6. Race relations: I'm always amazed by this when I go to SA. I have never seen an inter-racial couple! Apartheid may be long gone, thank God, but racial segregation still continues along tribal/ethnic lines.

I'd say it largely exists amongst class lines. I have seen integration improve since I first went there in '98 though.

EamonnKeane wrote: »

Zuma. Never went to school, recently up for rape, says he had sex with a HIV+ woman but took a shower after to avoid getting HIV. Good times ahead!

Wow! He seems like quiet an intelligent and caring individual. South Africans must be waiting with bated breath to see this intellectual colossus stride the international stage.

It seems rather odd to me that Irish people are going to South Africa to build houses for poor people who are presently living in shacks and their own government is spending billions building football stadiums.
“Between now and 2010, South Africa will spend in the region of R5-billion on building and renovating 10 World Cup stadiums.”

jmayo wrote: »

I knew a South African guy that had AFAIK represented SA at underage cricket and hockey, also had played lots of rugby.
He went to a hurling club training session one night but gave up after 10 minutes.
He could stand the fitness, but he didn't have the skills and he reckoned they were all physcos trying to behead him
Like many white South Africans he had connections with people that had fled Zimbabwe or as they used to say Rhodesia.

I've read this and reread it, and can't see what it has to do with the future of SA. Have I missed something or misunderstood?