trump becomes president 1000 euro at 25/1 on betfair

4068ac1elhodqr · 05-05-2016 3:54am

Mellor wrote: »

should you not have increased that?

Nope, 40% from the start of the year, and as of now and up until results day.

Being self financed, he wasn't really going to throw in any towels and be out of pocket if the RP-Rep didn't somehow come about, could always have gone independent if desired, just another few hundred million dollars.

To win is still an enormous battle, nothing much because of HC, but instead with the media. Nearly every media outlet on the planet (or more so their parent/holding group) has been, and will be taking potshots.

Has it worked so far? You can draw your own conclusions, as a couple of books are only offer 2.75.

Whether it's the $1trillion worth of student loans, cutting of foodstamps to up to 1m people, pay freezes & reductions, who knows. But perhaps it's fair to say again the desire for systematic change has never been greater - even more so than the time when 'change' was promised with those colourful A3 posters.

Anyway the market will settle down now, he'll average a 2.4 price threshold. Foresee most of the Sanders voters also moving across, even if somewhat reluctantly at first.

Next on the Novelty accumulator focus list is Brexit, Europop etc etc.

Mellor · 05-05-2016 8:27am

Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »

Nope, 40% from the start of the year, and as of now and up until results day.

There's almost* no way that can be true though. If needed to win the primary to win the presidency, then then winning the primary improves his chances of the presidency. Mathematically it has to, C is the product of A*B, up until the point the nomination is 100%.

*almost, as running independent had he lost could give him the chances of being elected, but it doesn't obviously.

The RP nom was availible at 1.05 a few hours ago. Felt way too big, will be gone soon. Laddies still 1/33

4068ac1elhodqr · 05-05-2016 2:08pm

Yes it's not 'mathematically/technically' correct.
The '40% outright chance of becoming President' is just a subjective view held from start of year, generally irrespective of conditions or events from then and will be held right until the end of event.

There is more 'risk' than 'value' present in something like 1.05.
33/1 type odds doesn't exist, nor have a place on my radar, good luck anyway.

Today's 2016 Londonistan Mayoral Elections for Goldsmith looks generous at 12,
very unlikely all the same Sadiq Khan may well have it wrapped up.

laura360 · 05-05-2016 2:10pm

Has the odds gone down since yesterday?

4068ac1elhodqr · 05-05-2016 2:17pm

laura360 wrote: »

Has the odds gone down since yesterday?

Any value is long gone in this market

rp:

win:

Rjd2 · 05-05-2016 4:13pm

If you have a spare million lying about that's as safe as 1/33 you will get to be honest. Only way he goes wrong if Paul Ryan does something and not only has he ruled himself out a zillion times, he is only 46 so when you consider the ages of people of the likes of Trump, Bernie and Clinton he has plenty of time on his side.

Mary Fallin at 33/1 might be worth a small wager for the vice president as well.I think having a female vice president would be a canny idea to counter Hilary, Martinez and Haley would be impressive choices, but both have endorsed Cruz and Rubio and have been pretty harsh on Trump. Obviously things can change, but it would need a lot of work behind the scenes and both girls are pretty young may fear they may alienate a lot of their supporters if they got behind Trump. I wouldn't be shocked if both of them like Ryan are thinking about running in the next election anyhow so may want no part this time round.

Fallin would be much easier work to get on the Trump bandwagon than the Haley and Martinez and as a strong conservative would definitely help in shutting up those who think Trump does not represent the core values of the republican and conservative movement. Trump praised her recently as well in an interview and suggested she would be a wonderful running mate.

Not suggesting that Fallin should be fav, but I have seen worse 33/1 shots than her. :P

Mellor · 05-05-2016 4:15pm

Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »

Yes it's not 'mathematically/technically' correct.
The '40% outright chance of becoming President' is just a subjective view held from start of year, generally irrespective of conditions or events from then and will be held right until the end of event.

That fair enough in that case. I figured you meant it in a separate way like that. As you your on top of the numbers side of things.

There is more 'risk' than 'value' present in something like 1.05.
33/1 type odds doesn't exist, nor have a place on my radar, good luck anyway.

I placed a sizeable bet on the RP at 1.05
I think the risk is <5%. Not a high ROI, but also low variance.

Today's 2016 Londonistan Mayoral Elections for Goldsmith looks generous at 12,
very unlikely all the same Sadiq Khan may well have it wrapped up.

I'd be having a laugh if I pretended to have a clue about that one.

Rjd2 · 05-05-2016 4:31pm

Mellor wrote: »

I placed a sizeable bet on the RP at 1.05
I think the risk is <5%. Not a high ROI, but also low variance.
.

I simply don't have the balls or the bank to make a 1/20 shot worth my while, but its very hard to see a scenario that he does not get the nomination.

4068ac1elhodqr · 05-05-2016 7:03pm

Rjd2 wrote: »

Mary Fallin at 33/1 might be worth a small wager for the vice president as well.

Like this, and these 33/1 are more likeable numbers (via Ladbrokes) than the before mentioned 1/33 (for RP re-confirmation).

He'll need 'good cop' politically correct, softer spoken figure to counteract his more 'creative' personality, but would need more pondering, as it's a big field.

The 1.03 for RP does contain some risk, as obviously (as seen on the tv-box), not everyone is an enthusiastic fan, in the land of the highly 'weaponized and prescribed'.

Mellor · 06-05-2016 1:50am

Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »

The 1.03 for RP does contain some risk, as obviously (as seen on the tv-box), not everyone is an enthusiastic fan, in the land of the highly 'weaponized and prescribed'.

I'm not suggesting completely free money. But when the entire market is 1.01, and I get on at 1.05, I'm happy that I'd achieve value.

28-05-2016 9:06am

Just saw this thread.. What an OP.

Polo_Mint · 28-05-2016 9:19am

Deleted User wrote: »

Just saw this thread.. What an OP.

He didnt place 1000 bet

poa · 18-06-2016 1:37am

I think this two horse race is all over now.
Personally I have 2K on Clinton, and feel it's a dead cert.
Short odds, but low liability. One just needs the patience to wait until November for it to deliver.
I cannot see Trump winning.

Mellor · 18-06-2016 8:49am

poa wrote: »

I think this two horse race is all over now.
Personally I have 2K on Clinton, and feel it's a dead cert.
Short odds, but low liability. One just needs the patience to wait until November for it to deliver.
I cannot see Trump winning.

I've a large bet on trump nomination, I think it's about the only value I'll try to squeeze out of the race.

Blatter · 18-06-2016 10:36am

These market seems like they can be extremely reactionary and often very wrong.

For example early on in the Primary voting, Rubio was shortened into the odds on favorite for the Republican nomination after a perceived strong third place finish in Iowa, where he beat the polls in terms of how close he got to Trump and Cruz. This certainly proved to be a complete false dawn and the market seemed to 'read' the situation incorrectly to an astounding degree.

Similarly a few weeks ago, the market reacted pretty strongly to the 'anyone but Trump' campaign (and Trump's controversial abortion comments) when he moved from a strong odds on position for the nomination (I think it was 1.25 or so) to odds against (I remember it going out to at least 2.2 at one stage). This again proved to be a huge overreaction as it took maybe a couple of weeks thereafter for Cruz and Kasich to pull out, making Trump the presumptive nominee.

There seems to be tons of value available in this market if you know your US politics inside out.

poa · 18-06-2016 1:24pm

Mellor wrote: »

I've a large bet on trump nomination, I think it's about the only value I'll try to squeeze out of the race.

A sound bet. Its Trump v Clinton now. Clinton wins, but you can sit back and relax until November knowing your money is safe. I don't mind being patient on these long term bets when one knows they are a dead cert to deliver.
I was going to lump on Clinton nomination myself, but saw more value in Clinton win so lumped 2K on. I can't see her odds drifting much and his shortening much from now until November. As unpopular as she is, he is less popular; so it's really a case of the her winning by default.

Mellor · 18-06-2016 1:30pm

poa wrote: »

A sound bet. Its Trump v Clinton now. Clinton wins, but you can sit back and relax until November knowing your money is safe. I don't mind being patient on these long term bets when one knows they are a dead cert to deliver.

I shouldn't have to wait until November. It should pay out as soon as he gets the nomination.

was going to lump on Clinton nomination myself,.

That maket is closed now.

poa · 18-06-2016 1:32pm

That maket is closed now.[/QUOTE]

You don't say.
In other news; water is wet.
You do realise the difference between; I was going to lump on, and I am going to lump on?
You know, like past and present.

4068ac1elhodqr · 11-09-2016 7:06pm

Trump probably at the shortest price it's ever been @2.5.
It's been a dead heat recently, poll-wise.

Looks like around half of the intended voting population aka the so-called 'Basket of Deplorables'
may be in with a good chance of their leader winning.

There was some news today of a 'medical episode' which may be affecting odds.

Bernie is back down @13, so some must think he still has a chance, interesting.

Rjd2 · 11-09-2016 11:27pm

Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »

Trump probably at the shortest price it's ever been @2.5.
It's been a dead heat recently, poll-wise.

Looks like around half of the intended voting population aka the so-called 'Basket of Deplorables'
may be in with a good chance of their leader winning.

There was some news today of a 'medical episode' which may be affecting odds.

Bernie is back down @13, so some must think he still has a chance, interesting.

Bernie price is silly in some places, if I was to have a few throw away tenner bets, it would be on Kaine or Biden, both guys would be business as usual for the dems which is what the people behind the scenes would probably prefer.:pac:

Bernie isn't even in the democrat party anymore:D

4068ac1elhodqr · 11-09-2016 11:45pm

Rjd2 wrote: »

Bernie price is silly in some places, if I was to have a few throw away tenner bets, it would be on Kaine or Biden, both guys would be business as usual for the dems which is what the people behind the scenes would probably prefer.:pac:

for sure, Biden seems a more relaxed, grounded personality, @51 he's not bad value also. HC will be drifting out past evens in no time the way things are.

Pneumonia is surprisingly common, but also fairy serious and complex if suffering from other conditions.

4068ac1elhodqr · 12-09-2016 1:32pm

1.62 vs 2.38 shows how close the market is now.

Last night's @51 Biden has gone now, BP (around 50% less) at @26.

Joe expressed a keen interest in running for POTUS previously, so would be 2nd to Trump now betwise.
Market is becoming available as a section within an accumulator as the contest progresses.

Rjd2 · 16-09-2016 12:58am

Interesting, reckon their is any chance we will see Hilary close to evs with the exchanges or a bookie in the near future?

4068ac1elhodqr · 16-09-2016 2:07am

HC could get close to 2.0, or if there's anymore major health issues multiply that numeral by a factor of 10.

Joe is looking like a possibility, as Kaine drifts out to near triple figures.

There is of course a 3rd scenario which could void all bets,
well depending on how much you read into mystic 'Baba Vanga' that is.
Probably something like Article One, Section 9, clause 2?

4068ac1elhodqr · 26-09-2016 8:42pm

T-4hrs until the debate, and think the markets are already trying to tell us something...

J Mysterio · 26-09-2016 9:56pm

It starts at 2am.

4068ac1elhodqr · 27-09-2016 3:54am

Trump will need a miracle of sorts to recover now.
Repeating 20 simpleton words & phrases isn't the way to go about these things.

What a contrast from a few hours ago:

4068ac1elhodqr · 27-09-2016 4:42am

Someone may need to wake the traders up over at Ladbrokens as 1.62 isn't a bad price.

4068ac1elhodqr · 10-10-2016 1:37am

ding ding, Round 2 and prices have widened somewhat since the last bout @ 1.22 vs 5.2.

Unless there is a massive wiki leakage, or other very major revelation or action, it could be game over tonight.
Once curious correlation is that the MEXvUSD is at a month low when it should be gaining this week.
DT will have to bring his A+ game (and then some) in 20mins, if he's going to recover.

okidoki987 · 10-10-2016 1:05pm

This is the greatest example of someone ****ng away their own chances of winning!
So long as HC doesn't make a mess or get info published on her that will harm the campaign, she should walk it from here.

4068ac1elhodqr · 10-10-2016 1:59pm

That was a good nite for Donald, seems it's 'game on' yet again:

whiteshorts · 18-10-2016 6:19pm

Paddy Power paying out on Clinton!

http://blog.paddypower.com/politics/2016/10/18/paddy-power-pay-out-hillary-clinton/

4068ac1elhodqr · 18-10-2016 6:34pm

Seems like expensive marketing (to the tune to $1m), still good news for the all the punters out there.

BP today is only 1.18, but 3wks is a still long time in politics.

Mr Lasagna has his interweb cut off and doesn't appear to have any juicy news, so perhaps it's clear sailing for HC.
There is of course always the chance of an 'Brexit type' result. The Brexit vote couldn't have won, surely not...

4068ac1elhodqr · 29-10-2016 7:00pm

Ladbrokes seem to have got the jitters and are now offering the best price today on HC @1.36 following recent news (scandal).

BFSport have the BP for Donald @4. DT was @6.5 just a few days ago.

We'll likely see 1.5 vs 2.88 appear within the next week, a weeks a long time in this game.

4068ac1elhodqr · 01-11-2016 3:50pm

Negative market (S&P 500):

and MXN drop:

might pointing to a Triumphant Donald.

Suspect HC will get @1.5 during this week

With the way things are going, @9 price booster could be of value:

as could 50-52% vote share:

...who knows with all the madness, Nigel Farage might even win CBB!

ibrahimovic · 01-11-2016 5:33pm

I can really see him doing it, tempted to put a bet on, still 11/4 with sportingbet.

4068ac1elhodqr · 01-11-2016 7:18pm

The Hills have gone out to '1.4' with Fred, Lads & Coral, that's the best price she's been for a long time (September).

Thur/Fri @1.66+?

4068ac1elhodqr · 01-11-2016 9:56pm

Interesting article published in the last 30mins:

They (Powers) say '91% of all bets in the past 48 hours' have been backing Trump to win.

"If the billionaire reality TV star and sometime steak salesman makes it to the Oval Office, they’ll be facing their biggest ($1m+) political payout in their 28 year history".

fatgav · 01-11-2016 10:07pm

Would any bookmaker allow you to do multiples on individual states? I know Paddy Power have some pre-selected combinations but the odds on them are woeful

4068ac1elhodqr · 01-11-2016 10:09pm

fatgav wrote: »

Would any bookmaker allow you to do multiples on individual states? I know Paddy Power have some pre-selected combinations but the odds on them are woeful

Sky had a boost a earlier today

Florida is about evens and highly important to both candidates

fatgav · 01-11-2016 10:25pm

Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »

Sky had a boost a earlier today

Florida is about evens and highly important to both candidates

The same four states on Betfair Sportsbook are 7/4, 6/5, 5/6 and 3/1.

That would be north of 43/1... if they let you put it into an accumulator

Danny2580 · 01-11-2016 10:44pm

They're related bets, you won't be able to put them into an accum, and if you do manage to, the bet will most likely be voided and stake returned. The 8/1 is a special price with the relation between the bets factored in.

fatgav · 01-11-2016 11:12pm

Danny2580 wrote: »

They're related bets, you won't be able to put them into an accum, and if you do manage to, the bet will most likely be voided and stake returned. The 8/1 is a special price with the relation between the bets factored in.

I figured that was the issue, but would question the principle of whether they amount to related bets. Maybe this is a simplistic way of looking at things, but I always felt that if the outcome of Bet A affects the odds of Bet B, then they can't be in an accumulator. I don't see how the election in one state is affected by a candidate winning in another. I know the networks declare winners when polls close in some of the Eastern states, but it still seems somewhat vague to me

okidoki987 · 02-11-2016 1:18am

It's because if Person A wins x, there's a good chance of them winning y and a much better chance of winning z if they have already won the x and y etc.
It's to avoid multiple liabilities on landslide victories for the same person/team etc.

cute geoge · 06-11-2016 10:13pm

Trump out to 4/1 on p.p. ,he might as well throw in the towel. It looks to be in the bag for hilly c

4068ac1elhodqr · 06-11-2016 10:45pm

Indeed BP for Trump available @5.5 (on BFSports), 5.0 (4/1) few places elsewhere.
Will await Monday/Tue before any conclusions.

Am sure anyone including OP, who got on the Trump train at double-digits (10-20+) would have already prepared to offset/lay.
I.e. Back HC at around 1.4 or 1.5 (was around 1.46 on WH just days ago) thereby assuring profit which ever way the wind blows.

Reckon DT is certainly still in with a chance and the bookies may remain liquid until final hours.
That fella Nostradamus seems contradictory on his views for Century III.

Anyway next on the radar for me anyway is 'Nigel in the Jungle', @26 is available, he may well make it to the final, but not win outright.
Easy going and full of banter Eamy Holmes is also in with a chance @11+.

Atlantic Dawn · 06-11-2016 10:46pm

cute geoge wrote: »

Trump out to 4/1 on p.p. ,he might as well throw in the towel. It looks to be in the bag for hilly c

Easy easy money

4068ac1elhodqr · 07-11-2016 11:35pm

Monday assessment as markets are closing (EST) is that the race is still wide open.

There was only marginal gains across the S&P500 (^2%), DJ (^2%). MXN is down but still trading high 18.66, Gold holding steady at 1,280.
None of which is indicative of a HC landslide as one would expect.

More importantly perhaps as an indicator, is that three times as many bookies are going short, rather than drifting for DJ

Rjd2 · 08-11-2016 10:41pm

Trump to win Michigan my only bet, big working class turnout supposedly which did for HC against Sanders. I don't see a route for Trump to the white house, but backing 1/5 shots is dull.:P

ianburke · 09-11-2016 3:26am

odds on now...after clinton was 1/14 2 hrs ago. fascinating stuff

trump becomes president 1000 euro at 25/1 on betfair

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