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Call It

2»

Comments

  • #52
    ircoha
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,290 ✭✭✭ircoha


    mcaul wrote: »
    ?? - I know this is off topic, but the UK's massive diverse population is due to its colonisation of countries worldwide, and this gave those people the born right to live & work in the UK as UK citizens.

    It does not matter here how they get in, the end result will be the same.


  • #53
    Jack Sheehan
    Registered Users Posts: 1,693 ✭✭✭Jack Sheehan


    And again to anyone who is going to vote no because they dont understand the treaty, please, have a quick look at this page: http://www.lisbontreaty2008.ie/lisbon_treaty_changes_gov.html, it's reasonably clear and give a good run down of the main changes.


  • #54
    pro_gnostic_8
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,223 ✭✭✭pro_gnostic_8


    Odds offered by Paddy Power Bookmakers indicate it is a near-certainty to be passed ( and they usually get it right).

    They bet:

    YES ......... 2/5
    NO .......... 7/4


  • #55
    IRLConor
    Subscribers Posts: 4,076 ✭✭✭IRLConor


    pro_gnostic_8 wrote: »
    Odds offered by Paddy Power Bookmakers indicate it is a near-certainty to be passed ( and they usually get it right).

    They bet:

    YES ......... 2/5
    NO .......... 7/4

    I dunno, it's close enough that I'm not going to call it certain either way until Mary Harney sings.


  • #56
    Agent Smith
    Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 21,504 Mod ✭✭✭✭Agent Smith


    YES 50.2%
    NO 47.6%
    Spolit 2.2%


  • #57
    johnnyq
    Closed Accounts Posts: 641 ✭✭✭johnnyq


    Agent Smith wrote: »
    YES 50.2%
    NO 47.6%
    Spolit 2.2%
    That's a very high spolied rate don't you think? Why bother going all the way to the booth and see a Yes or No in front of you and somehow spoil it by writing "FF Suckz" on the paper. It's easier to explain it in elections because it's more complicated.

    I really think it's too close to call. I won't even make a prediction.


  • #58
    Dave!
    Closed Accounts Posts: 27,857 ✭✭✭✭Dave!


    I suspect the No camp will win unfortunately


  • #59
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    I honestly have not got a clue which side will win but ive read that the Islands who already voted are thought to have given a 'solid no' - I do think the Yes side will sneak it but I agree with post above - they have done themselves no favours. Its going to be extremely close IMO.


  • #60
    IRLConor
    Subscribers Posts: 4,076 ✭✭✭IRLConor


    darkman2 wrote: »
    I honestly have not got a clue which side will win but ive read that the Islands who already voted are thought to have given a 'solid no'

    How do they know this? The ballot boxes from the islands haven't been opened yet.


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  • #61
    oscarBravo
    Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,820 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    Exit polls?


  • #62
    sink
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,314 ✭✭✭sink


    IRLConor wrote: »
    How do they know this? The ballot boxes from the islands haven't been opened yet.

    Exit polls. :)


  • #63
    IRLConor
    Subscribers Posts: 4,076 ✭✭✭IRLConor


    oscarBravo wrote: »
    Exit polls?

    Ah yes, forgot about those things. :o

    Out of curiosity, how accurate do they tend to be? I've voted a good few times now and I've never even seen an exit poll being conducted nor have I heard of anyone I know being polled for one.


  • #64
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    I persume its an exit poll. I read it on one of the gaurdian blogs - the journalist, Mick Fealty (i think) also said that the Island votes actually tend to show how the West and Southwest vote in general. Not sure how much to read into it.


  • #65
    sink
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,314 ✭✭✭sink


    IRLConor wrote: »
    Ah yes, forgot about those things. :o

    Out of curiosity, how accurate do they tend to be? I've voted a good few times now and I've never even seen an exit poll being conducted nor have I heard of anyone I know being polled for one.

    They can't be published till after everyone has voted but people on the inside can let it slip to a few friends. They tend to be fairly accurate as they ask voters coming out after the have just voted. I don't know the facts but I would expect it to fall in the region of 5% margin of error.


  • #66
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    sink wrote: »
    They can't be published till after everyone has voted but people on the inside can let it slip to a few friends. They tend to be fairly accurate as they ask voters coming out after the have just voted. I don't know the facts but I would expect it to fall in the region of 5% margin of error.

    Does it really matter anyway - this treaty will be won or lost in Dublin.


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  • #67
    mrpants
    Registered Users Posts: 109 ✭✭mrpants


    its mad that alot of people think its going to get the "yes", yet anybody i know is voting "NO". and by they way they are talking most of the people they know are voting "NO".


  • #68
    johnnyq
    Closed Accounts Posts: 641 ✭✭✭johnnyq


    mrpants wrote: »
    its mad that alot of people think its going to get the "yes", yet anybody i know is voting "NO". and by they way they are talking most of the people they know are voting "NO".
    FF is some machine to beat. Never underestimate it for unquestioning loyalty.


  • #69
    IRLConor
    Subscribers Posts: 4,076 ✭✭✭IRLConor


    mrpants wrote: »
    its mad that alot of people think its going to get the "yes", yet anybody i know is voting "NO". and by they way they are talking most of the people they know are voting "NO".

    That's pretty much the opposite to my experience.


  • #70
    johnnyq
    Closed Accounts Posts: 641 ✭✭✭johnnyq


    IRLConor wrote: »
    That's pretty much the opposite to my experience.
    That's why I think it will be for this reason that the Yes side may win. If No people stay at home, the lobbies will carry it.


  • #71
    mrpants
    Registered Users Posts: 109 ✭✭mrpants


    johnnyq wrote: »
    That's why I think it will be for this reason that the Yes side may win. If No people stay at home, the lobbies will carry it.

    any of the "no" people i know or heard of feel very strong about it and i thnk it will be them that will turn up to vote


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  • #72
    johnnyq
    Closed Accounts Posts: 641 ✭✭✭johnnyq


    mrpants wrote: »
    any of the "no" people i know or heard of feel very strong about it and i thnk it will be them that will turn up to vote
    Here's hoping. I will be one of them anyway.


  • #73
    marco_polo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,087 Mod ✭✭✭✭marco_polo


    I think the yes campaign had a pretty good last few days and I thought that they won most of the debates during this week. Between that and the main parties getting the grassroots out I think it will be just enough.

    Also that anti-abortion nutter on Q&A monday night who reckons the European Court of Justice is a big conspiracy may have swung it for the yes camp :).

    I have a feeling that it may be something like 55%-45% in the end


  • #74
    Call Me Jimmy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,449 ✭✭✭Call Me Jimmy


    Maybe it's like this before every referendum but I get the feeling this'll be a big wun turnout-wise, whatjez think?


  • #75
    Shield
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Help & Feedback Category Moderators Posts: 9,810 CMod ✭✭✭✭Shield


    My prediction is that the No camp will win it by around 2%.


  • #76
    genericgoon
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,675 ✭✭✭genericgoon


    A draw, with Biffo and Co. having a penalty shoot out with the Alliance of Naysayers. 10 euros on Biffos team. :p

    More seriously, I reckon a 2 point win for Yes.


  • #77
    nhughes100
    Closed Accounts Posts: 845 ✭✭✭nhughes100


    I really don't agree that the No camp are voting no because they are lazy. How many people vote FF or FG because"Oh, My familly has always voted for FF/FG and always will" Lots of people in general/local elections vote for the party and don't bother to find out anything about the actual candidate. I think if you don't understand the treaty then you are perfectly entitled to vote no, to insinuate that the no camp is made up of the typical unemployed, racist Irish bedgrudger is simply not the truth.


  • #78
    Jip
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,418 ✭✭✭Jip


    That's the impression I get from some people Nigel, alot of people seem to be putting the no voters into the fairly uneducated working class mongrels slot.


  • #79
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    I'll go for a 50-55% turn out as the weather is decent and a yes vote by 56/44 - I suspect quite a few will go in and seeing the boxes will take a deep breath and X the yes box.

    Mike.


  • #80
    cornbb
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,790 ✭✭✭cornbb


    mike65 wrote: »
    I'll go for a 50-55% turn out as the weather is decent and a yes vote by 56/44 - I suspect quite a few will go in and seeing the boxes will take a deep breath and X the yes box.

    Mike.

    I agree, I see a lot of undecided voters going in the Yes direction at the last minute. At least I hope so :)


  • #81
    dathi1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,695 ✭✭✭dathi1


    Just asked old neighbours at south dublin polling centre this morning which way they voted. 10 No including myself and 1 no.

    I'd say the Yes will get it by 1-2% as the day goes on.


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  • #82
    Jip
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,418 ✭✭✭Jip


    dathi1 wrote: »
    Just asked old neighbours at south dublin polling centre this morning which way they voted. 10 No including myself and 1 no.

    I'd say the Yes will get it by 1-2% as the day goes on.

    You came to that conclusion from 11 people you know, including yourself, all voting No :p


  • #83
    gazzer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,049 ✭✭✭gazzer


    From people I have spoken to over the last week in work, in the gym, family and friends they are all voting NO.


  • #84
    nhughes100
    Closed Accounts Posts: 845 ✭✭✭nhughes100


    Everyone that I've discussed this with bar two people I know are voting no but I suspect this will change in the voting booth, I think it's called Fianna Fail syndrome where nobody admits to voting for FF but a lot of people actually do.


  • #85
    eoin2nc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 691 ✭✭✭eoin2nc


    nhughes100 wrote: »
    Everyone that I've discussed this with bar two people I know are voting no but I suspect this will change in the voting booth, I think it's called Fianna Fail syndrome where nobody admits to voting for FF but a lot of people actually do.

    Nobody on boards admits to voting for FF.......


  • #86
    cornbb
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,790 ✭✭✭cornbb


    When will we start getting results from exit polls?


  • #87
    sink
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,314 ✭✭✭sink


    cornbb wrote: »
    When will we start getting results from exit polls?

    There are no exit polls been taken according to euronews. The earliest we'll know is tomorrow afternoon.


  • #88
    dathi1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,695 ✭✭✭dathi1


    Everyone that I've discussed this with bar two people I know are voting no but I suspect this will change in the voting booth, I think it's called Fianna Fail syndrome where nobody admits to voting for FF but a lot of people actually do.
    Totally agree.
    Its a hard one to call. Turn out this morning according to RTE is slow.

    On a seperate note..Just seen Gay Mitchel on France24 Sat TV more or less apologising to the French saying: "The problem is we have to vote on these issues due to our constitution"

    jaazuss.


  • #89
    cornbb
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,790 ✭✭✭cornbb


    If I heard correctly, RTE Radio have just said there's a stronger turnout in urban areas than rural areas, and that in urban areas turnout appears to be stronger in middle-class constituencies. Wonder why there are no exit polls? :confused:


  • #90
    sink
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,314 ✭✭✭sink


    cornbb wrote: »
    If I heard correctly, RTE Radio have just said there's a stronger turnout in urban areas than rural areas, and that in urban areas turnout appears to be stronger in middle-class constituencies. Wonder why there are no exit polls? :confused:

    They never do exit polls here for elections because our proportional representation systems makes them almost useless. But I would've thought they'd do them for a simple yes/no referendum.


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  • #91
    IRLConor
    Subscribers Posts: 4,076 ✭✭✭IRLConor


    Perhaps the exit polls are gagged until the polls close?


  • #92
    sink
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,314 ✭✭✭sink


    IRLConor wrote: »
    Perhaps the exit polls are gagged until the polls close?

    According to euronews there are none.


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