April 2012 Boards forecast contest

Here's the first seven days ...

IMT only 6.6 C

prec only 36% of normal

sun (two stations missing from data) about normal so far (will try to update this actual value)

Rather late UPDATE on the second week of April (8-14) ...

IMT now at 6.8 after a week at 7.0 C

prec up to 82% of normal thanks to a week with 127% of normal

sunshine figures continue to miss a few data points but the trend seems upward, will estimate current reading at about 113%.

That is no doubt the reason they are no longer in the Ag Report, but also Dublin has been missing at times when I've updated. Until this month, I have taken the six stations that report in the Monthly Summary, now I imagine it will have to be five unless they promote Knock to the chart (that would require having some normals available). I hope that nobody's sunshine forecasts are so finely tuned that this will all cause a problem -- meanwhile, I am ready to declare a winner in the winter forecast contest, as the period is now over. Winter meanwhile seems not to have gotten the memo.

It's heading for 20 here today, shall we count that?

Fourth week update (22-28 April) ...

IMT now at 7.1 after a week at 7.34 C (With the second digit I am indicating just how hot it has been) ... This can only change marginally now which means "winner winner chicken dinner" for your host (at least on this category, not so much otherwise).

prec up again to 123% of normal after a wet week with 146% of normal, this would have been higher if not for a nearly dry week at Claremorris and Malin Head, some other stations ran 200-300 per cent. Also the monthly summary does not use Gurteen or Dublin which were both high. Anyway, this will clearly take another boost in the last two days.

Sunshine estimated to be near 112%, the week estimated at 90%. This remains a bit of a mystery tour with all the estimating and the sunny start to Sunday ensures a similar outcome for 29th-30th but I would only "guarantee" this to be some numbers with a percentage sign to follow.

There was a really solid effort to undercut the recorded monthly minimum the past two nights, don't think it quite came off. But I think we are stuck with the 14.9 now or close to it.

Look for scoring on Tuesday followed by bitter recriminations.

Final results for April, scoring already done largely in advance, just had to tweak the numbers when I got the official stats:

IMT 7.0 (from 7.04)
MAX 14.9 (the 15.7 at Finner not eligible apparently, scoring would be same, except that redsunset scored one extra point with this value, his guess 15.0)
MIN -3.0 at Casement and Gurteen

PRC 131% (required "mercy rule" as our highest forecast 111% )
SUN 113% (turns out that Valentia still has data, just not being reported until end of month perhaps? ... we'll see how this works out in May)

max 8th Easter Sunday Dublin -- 11.6


Scoring

FORECASTER ...... IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN .. Dub-8th .. Totals
____________________________________________________________

homolumo ............. 20 ..... 11* ... 18 ..... 04* ... 05 ..... 09 ..... 67
Tae laidir .............. 13 ..... 15* ... 11 ..... 14* ... 01 ..... 08 ..... 62
redsunset* ........... 15 ..... 19 ..... 00 ..... 13* ... 09 ..... 07 ..... 63 = 60
jambofc ............... 17 ..... 06* ... 11 ..... 13* ... 04 ..... 09 ..... 60
rameire ................ 12 ..... 11* ... 19 ..... 05* ... 06 ..... 03 ..... 56
M.T. Cranium ........ 23 ..... 08* ... 06 ..... 09* ... 01 ..... 08 ..... 55
nilhg .................... 10 ..... 14* ... 18 ..... 05* ... 05 ..... 03 ..... 55
Joe Public ............. 16 ..... 16* ... 01 ..... 11* ... 02 ..... 07 ..... 53
John mac .............. 11 ..... 00 ..... 19 ..... 10* ... 03 ..... 10 ..... 53
Jerry Seinfeld ........ 16 ..... 11* ... 05 ..... 09* .... 03 ..... 02 ..... 46
Sponge Bob ........... 10 ..... 12* ... 15 ..... 01* ... 05 ..... 03 ..... 46

Con Sensus ........... 10 ..... 00 ..... 20 ..... 01* ... 05 ..... 10 ..... 46

MiNdGaM3 ............. 18 ..... 13* ... 00 ..... 01* ... 06 ..... 07 ..... 45
Deep Easterly ........ 10 ..... 04* ... 19 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 06 ..... 45
okla ..................... 14 ..... 00 ..... 17 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 07 ..... 44
NIALL D ................ 07 ..... 00 ..... 19 ..... 02* ... 07 ..... 09 ..... 44
Danno* ................ 07 ..... 18* ... 03 ..... 01* ... 10 ..... 05 ..... 44
jd ........................ 09 ..... 00 ..... 19 ..... 02* ... 05 ..... 09 ..... 44
dasa29 ................. 10 ..... 01* ... 15 ..... 09* ... 08 ..... 01 ..... 44
SeaFields .............. 10 ..... 00 ..... 20 ..... 00 ..... 04 ..... 10 ..... 44
H2UMrsRobinson ..... 13 ..... 00 ..... 16 ..... 03* ... 01 ..... 10 ..... 43
Lumi ..................... 13 ..... 00 ..... 20 ..... 00 ..... 04 ..... 06 ..... 43
DOCARCH .............. 12 ..... 00 ..... 11 ..... 03* ... 05 ..... 09 ..... 40
Rebelbrowser* ........ 07 ..... 00 ..... 19 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 04 ..... 38
Strasser ................ 12 ..... 07* .... 09 ..... 00 ..... 07 ..... 03 ..... 38
snowstreams .......... 17 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 02* ... 05 ..... 04 ..... 37
Gonzo ................... 07 ..... 00 ..... 14 ..... 01* ... 07 ..... 08 ..... 37
dacogawa .............. 08 ..... 00 ..... 17 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 06 ..... 37
harps .................... 12 ..... 00 ..... 14 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 03 ..... 35
Hammer Archer ....... 14 ..... 02* ... 11 ..... 00 ..... 03 ..... 05 ..... 35
traecy1 ................. 13 ..... 04* ... 05 ..... 00 ..... 04 ..... 08 ..... 34
lostinashford .......... 16 ..... 00 ..... 15 ..... 00 ..... 03 ..... 00 ..... 34
waterways ............ 17 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 03* ... 00 ..... 07 ..... 33
200motels ............. 05 ..... 00 ..... 15 ..... 01* ... 07 ..... 03 ..... 31
Pauldry ................. 06 ..... 00 ..... 10 ..... 05* ... 06 ..... 04 ..... 31
Wild Bill ................. 00 ..... 00 ..... 17 ..... 01* ... 06 ..... 03 ..... 27
mickger844posts ..... 01 ..... 00 ..... 16 ..... 00 ..... 02 ..... 08 ..... 27
delw ..................... 03 ..... 00 ..... 10 ..... 00 ..... 02 ..... 10 ..... 25
Steopo ................. 01 ..... 06* .... 15 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 02 ..... 24
kindredspirit ........... 00 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 00 ..... 05 ..... 09 ..... 22
K_1 ...................... 00 ..... 01* ... 10 ..... 00 ..... 04 ..... 07 ..... 22
Rickylovesuall ......... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 01* ... 06 ..... 06 ..... 13
cherryghost ........... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 05 ..... 07 ..... 12
talkabout ............... 01 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 02 ..... 02 ..... 05

______________________________________________

* (names) late entries, subject to penalty (8 max on bonus did not apply, 10% off >60 did apply to redsunset, rule says no lower than 60 from penalty, so just a slight nudge there.)
* (scores) minimum progression rule applies for max temp except for redsunset, and rainfall although 01 scores would have been achieved by some without rule applied

***Iancar29 score for comparison, -10% above 30 used by logical progression
**bonus for late late scores 5/10 max (from 8)
(score does not count and did not affect other scores from "mercy rules" or bonus rank)
Iancar29 .......... 21 ..... 00 ..... 15 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 05** ... 50=45
>> (would have scored 53 for same forecast on time with 08 bonus)

Congrats to homolumo and Tae laidir for leading this month, well done also to jambofc and redsunset.

Check back later today for updated annual scoring in this thread.

rameire wrote: »

Once again I thank all of my family at the gorilla enclosure at Dublin Zoo.
I cannot foresee my streak running on any longer.
This shall be a bad month for me.
Thanks MT for all your hard work, I think I speak for all in thanking you for the amount of work and effort you put into these competitions.

No problem, I am surprised to learn how fast evolution takes place, or was it that your family went in the other direction?

Thanks for looking into that ... if we ran into a situation where the scoring was more affected, I might poll the participants in a case where we were all sure that the reading was valid, as I think this case represented (other stations not in our contest were milder) -- but as mentioned, with the minor exception of one forecast getting one additional point, this situation had no actual bearing on the contest scores. We would have been going off the same "mercy rules" regardless.