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The return of the One Bet to €25,000 challenge

  • 27-09-2011 2:08pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭


    Hi all,

    Just to let you know, I have initiated a bank transfer into one of my accounts and will be ready to dust off the cobwebs for my big ante-post accumulator starting this weekend.

    It will be a single accumulator (if they let me put the full stake on in one go).

    €500 -> €25,000 or thereabouts!

    I did it in 2009/10 and came very close last season so lets hope this year I'll come good again.

    Incidentely, I notice Danny Graham has been brutal this season - the bast ard :)

    Details to follow once the transfer goes through.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,103 ✭✭✭Derek!


    Welcome back :) and goodluck with doin it again.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,965 ✭✭✭✭Gavin "shels"


    Will probably follow you on this, very unlucky last season.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭yesno1234


    Can't wait for this, I have been checking the forum religiously lately to make sure I didn't miss it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    To anyone following, you will need to get a Coral / Eurobet account set up as their prices are the best for my particular choices.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,104 ✭✭✭markc91


    I got an email from eurobet saying that they were closing down on sept. 30th???


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    markc91 wrote: »
    I got an email from eurobet saying that they were closing down on sept. 30th???

    Ha! Maybe they could see us coming and got scared!

    Coral it is so... Hopefully Coral will now allow Euro accounts.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    .... and here it is:

    I had to place it it three bets. Two £100 bets and one £210 bet (screen shot below).

    Not much time now as I've to head to work but will be able to follow the scores on my Android later. Will also put up some reasoning why I chose these selections.

    Stake: €475
    Odds: 52.85
    Potential winnings: €25,105 (at current exchange rates).

    screenshot20111001at112.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Not the greatest start for the bet with Rickie Lambert bagging two penalties and Exeter winning (due mainly to some excellent work by their keeper) :(

    Chelsea won however!

    The odds havent changed too much, with only Exeter drifting out to 2.63 from 2.38.

    The reasons behind Ross McCormack being the anchor of my bet are pretty simple. He's proven at this level, in very good form so far this year, in a team scoring for fun despite being outside of the playoffs. I am worried about him staying fit all season but if he does, he will certainly be in the mix at the end. There's not alot of competition out there for him too. Lambert is currently level with him at the top, and certainly is a very real rival, but looking beyond him here are the others in contention according to the bookies:

    Marvin Emnes - terrible goalscoring record throughout his professional career. Maybe this is his year, but Iwilling to risk it isn't.

    Kevin Philips - Proven at this level too, but at his age he unlikely to play enough games this season to compete.

    Carlton Cole - I have never rated Cole. He has a poor goalscoring record also and has only played the full 90 mins once this season. Maybe Big Sam doesn't rate him either.

    Michael Chopa - Dangerous threat, but in a poor side and already plenty of goals behind.

    Craig Mackail Smith - excellent start for him this year at Brighton. Proven in League 1 and has looked comfortable in the Championship. A great bet at 25/1

    .... next up is Exeter away to Bury on Saturday.

    Leeds have a good run of fixtures coming up:

    Doncaster Rovers v Leeds United
    Leeds United v Coventry City
    Peterborough United v Leeds United
    Birmingham v Leeds United
    Leeds United v Cardiff City
    Leeds United v Blackpool
    Leicester City v Leeds United
    Burnley v Leeds United
    Leeds United v Barnsley


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Ross McCormack nominated for the player of the month award. This will surely boost his confidence.... Lovely!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,104 ✭✭✭markc91


    Sorry for taking this O.T but do ya have to have a credit card for coral my laser doesnt seem to work


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Their site says:

    We accept deposits by Visa debit or credit, MasterCard, Maestro or Solo.

    I believe Laser is Maestro so it should work. Just give them an email and ask.

    You could also look into moneybookers.

    I used Neteller by the way,and they def dont accept laser.


  • Registered Users Posts: 188 ✭✭yaaaboy


    Stan James had mccormack priced up at 50/1 for a while last night, im sure it was a mistake but i managed to get 50 quid down before my account got suspended..pity i didnt have more in my account.

    Great thread all the best with it!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    50/1 !! Tremendous stuff. You think they'll cancel it? Let me know how it goes when they re-activate your account....

    Well today was a positive day with Exeter losing to fellow strugglers Bury. Other results also went nicely so Exeter have gone bottom. Four teams get relegated by the way.

    Bring on next weekend!


  • Registered Users Posts: 188 ✭✭yaaaboy


    Yes the bet stands, the security team said my account was suspended because my account (which i had set up especially for the bet that night) name was in english and it didnt match the name on my credit card which was spelt in irish.. I figure thats what price mccormack was at the start of the season and when they re-opened the market they reverted back to his opening price accidentally.

    I am seriously gutted i didnt post it here on time and would like to apologise to the rest of ye for not tipping ye off. Would have been epic if we all nailed 500 quid on the accumulator


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Ah not to worry. I'd say if more piled on we would all have had our bets cancelled.

    I'm glad we're both going to be cheering him on! I think if he can stay injury free, he's a great shout for top scorer.

    Just noticed Leeds are actually playing on Friday evening on tele. Will be a good chance to get a good look at him!

    PS - Just realised yours is the accumulator (minus Exeter) Good man!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Besides watching the scores coming in on Sky, this is my favourite part of the season long bet: totting up the best available bookies' odds to see if my chances of winning have improved or not! So please forgive me for this little pleasure. Here we go....

    Original Stake: £410 (€475 approx)

    McCormack Top Scorer: 11.0
    Exeter Relegation from L1: 2.75
    Bayern to win CL Group A: 1.3
    Chelsea to win CL Group E: 1.2
    Chelsea Top 4 Finish: 1.11

    Total Odds at start: 52.38
    Potential winnings: ~€25,000 (at exchange rates on the day).

    Current odds:
    McCormack Top Scorer: 11.0
    Exeter Relegation from L1: 2.3
    Bayern to win CL Group A: 1.3
    Chelsea to win CL Group E: 1.2
    Chelsea Top 4 Finish: 1.11

    Total Odds: 43.81
    Total odds change: -16% :eek:

    As you can see, the change in odds for one selection can have a huge effect on the probability of the bet coming off.

    The odds have come down by 16% after two weeks. This equates to a 16% better probability of my bet winning. However, it's still a long shot... Only a 2.38% chance of winning!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,210 ✭✭✭argosy2006


    would a grand on those current odds be a good bet?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    A grand?! I wouldnt recommend anyone to put a grand on...

    My stake has come from winnings and I can afford to lose it. The bet is also there to stop me putting short term bets on every week. If it wins great, but if it keeps me interested in four competitions for the rest of the season without actually winning, then it has also served a purpose.

    If you were to put the grand on and McCormack was to do his hamstring in, you might feel like chasing etc but that's a personal thing and I dont know anything about you.

    All that said, I think the bet still represents great value!

    Chelsea at 1.11 for 4th is superb. Exeter at 2.3 for the drop is also an excellent price in my eyes. With the top two qualifying from the CL groups, there's obviously a danger that Bayern / Chelsea may take their foot of the gas but that's a risk I'm willing to take.

    Next up, Leeds tomorrow night!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,783 ✭✭✭Pj!


    Best of luck with it turbobaby. Will follow with interest again this year.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    What a peach!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Well it's that time of the week again, when I update the odds after the weekend's events.

    The weekend was indeed very good to me as we will see.

    McCormack scored a delightful overhead on Friday and played very well in a Leeds team I was very impressed with.

    However, his competitors for the Championship golden boot also scored, namely Rickie Lambert and Chris Wood (only on loan until Jan but may stay longer).

    Chelsea impressed beating Everton 3-1.

    Exeter got hammered 4-0 and changed their 'keeper at half time only for him to also play poorly. They've got bottom now and are favourites for the drop. Lovely!

    Tomorrow asd Wednesday we have the return of the Champions Leage (Chelsea and Bayern) and Leeds also play tomorrow at home to Coventry.

    Here's the original and updated best price odds:

    Original Stake: £410 (€475 approx)

    McCormack Top Scorer: 11.0
    Exeter Relegation from L1: 2.75
    Bayern to win CL Group A: 1.3
    Chelsea to win CL Group E: 1.2
    Chelsea Top 4 Finish: 1.11

    Total Odds at start: 52.38
    Potential winnings: ~€25,000 (at exchange rates on the day).

    Current odds:
    McCormack Top Scorer: 9.0
    Exeter Relegation from L1: 2.25
    Bayern to win CL Group A: 1.3
    Chelsea to win CL Group E: 1.2
    Chelsea Top 4 Finish: 1.05

    Total Odds: 33.17
    Total odds change: -36% eek.gif

    Looks like I'll be getting a good run for my money again this season. :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭yesno1234


    Well done on the sucess so far. I haven't had the money on my card to back it yet and it probably won't be until after the Champs Lge that I get a chance to back it. Do you think I should wait a week or two to see if the odds drift or should I back it now before it shortens even more. I know you can't know for definate whether it'll drift or shorten but what do you think in your opinion?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Well the bet has a 97% chance of being a loser so I expect it to lose (odds drift to infinity!) as there's usually one part that lets you down.

    Like all bets the odds are going to fluctuate. Lambert is in great form and Exeter may turn things around. Bayern's group is tough... An away game against Napoli tomorrow. McCormack isnt playing 90 mins most games and they've got Becchio plus Forssell ready and waiting if his form dips.

    So I wouldnt be in any rush to put money on. Hope you're not gonna go too mad with the stake as it's a got only an outside chance of winning.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭yesno1234


    turbobaby wrote: »
    Well the bet has a 97% chance of being a loser so I expect it to lose (odds drift to infinity!) as there's usually one part that lets you down.

    Like all bets the odds are going to fluctuate. Lambert is in great form and Exeter may turn things around. Bayern's group is tough... An away game against Napoli tomorrow. McCormack isnt playing 90 mins most games and they've got Becchio plus Forssell ready and waiting if his form dips.

    So I wouldnt be in any rush to put money on. Hope you're not gonna go too mad with the stake as it's a got only an outside chance of winning.

    €50 Tops I'll be putting on it just want to know whether you think it's still a bit of value.


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    For folks other than the OP I reckon just backing McCormack to be top scorer as as a single is the way to go :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    To be honest I'd wait before putting any money on. Surely no ante post bets are ever that easy that they'd just go shorter and shorter!

    Btw, i took the best prices on the odds from oddschecker so I think you'd have to take shorter odds as you'll have to do the accy with one bookie.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Seems as though McCormack missed an absolute sitter last night and was subbed on 70 mins. At least Lambert didnt score!

    Bayern get a respectable away draw in Naples and remain top of their group at the mid way point. 2 home games and 1 away game left. Confident.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20 mensa


    Hi, could you give a quick summary on how to do that accumulator bet on Coral?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    mensa wrote: »
    Hi, could you give a quick summary on how to do that accumulator bet on Coral?

    Mensa, I wouldn't put the bet on with Coral now as they've dropped Mccormack to 5/1.

    I will update the odds here this afternoon after work and will fin the best place for te bet. Boylesports are the only ones to offer 8/1 on McCormack by the way.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,734 ✭✭✭Fowler87


    Best of luck with the bet mate. Ive done a small accum and trixie on the following for top scorer...

    McCormack (Leeds) @ 7/1
    Rhodes (Huddersfield) @ 11/2
    Morgan Smith (Luton) @ 10/1

    Optimistic 2 grand returns if they all come in but ya never know:pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Nice one Fowler. I was very close to sticking Rhodes in an accy last season. An excellent prospect and already scoring goals for fun.

    Good to see u in on McC. Hope he does the biz for us!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Time for the third thumbs up..... Another positive result last night with Chelsea winning. Shame Leverkusen and Valencia didn't draw with each other, but you can't have it all your own way in this gambling game!

    Here's the update:

    Original Stake: £410 (€475 approx)

    McCormack Top Scorer: 11.0
    Exeter Relegation from L1: 2.75
    Bayern to win CL Group A: 1.3
    Chelsea to win CL Group E: 1.2
    Chelsea Top 4 Finish: 1.11

    Total Odds at start: 52.38
    Potential winnings: ~€25,000 (at exchange rates on the day).

    Current odds:
    McCormack Top Scorer: 9.0
    Exeter Relegation from L1: 2.25
    Bayern to win CL Group A: 1.25
    Chelsea to win CL Group E: 1.17
    Chelsea Top 4 Finish: 1.05

    Total Odds: 31.1
    Total odds change: -40.1% :eek: :eek:

    The bet now has a slightly better than 1 in 33 chance of winning. I'll take that!

    To Mensa: No bookie stands out as having valuable odds on the accumulator now so I would not put on any cash right now. I'm sure there'll be a pullback in the odds which might present a better opportunity.

    Otherwise, you could just go to oddschecker and have a look at ante-post selections which are overpriced by the same bookie and stick them into an accumulator. If you see a bookie offering better odds than a fairly liquid Betfair market, you are usually on to a good thing that will drop in price in the near future. That's all I did/do!


  • Registered Users Posts: 20 mensa


    I just spent an hour looking on Coral on how to do an accumulator! HELP. I couldnt even find a section on best goalscoarer in any league except Premier league. Is there anyone who can give quick instructions on this?


  • Registered Users Posts: 188 ✭✭yaaaboy


    mensa wrote: »
    I just spent an hour looking on Coral on how to do an accumulator! HELP. I couldnt even find a section on best goalscoarer in any league except Premier league. Is there anyone who can give quick instructions on this?

    Do it through oddschecker.com its more straight forward than the coral site and easier to find the markets


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Howyiz!

    Yeah, oddschecker is defo the best.

    Haven't had a chance to do an update since the Saturday and Tuesday games, but the certainly was a bad week for the bet with Chelsea losing and Exeter winning... twice!

    Following Leeds online now. Hopefully McCormack can grab a goal in the 2nd half although Birmingham have only conceded one league goal at home so far this season....


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    ... and here's update four:

    Here's the update:

    Original Stake: £410 (€475 approx)

    McCormack Top Scorer: 11.0 -> 9.0
    Exeter Relegation from L1: 2.75 -> 3.0
    Bayern to win CL Group A: 1.3 -> 1.25
    Chelsea to win CL Group E: 1.2 -> 1.14
    Chelsea Top 4 Finish: 1.11 -> 1.07

    Total Odds: 52.38 -> 41.14
    Potential winnings: ~€25,000 (at exchange rates on the day).

    So a jump from 30/1 to 40/1. Not too bad considering Exeter won two, Chelsea lost and McCormack failed to score in two games. This tells me the market still believes in my selections. I do too!

    Roll on the weekend!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    .... and update 5 is alsopoor after a sh1tty weekend!

    Original Stake: £410 (€475 approx)

    McCormack Top Scorer: 11.0 -> 9.0
    Exeter Relegation from L1: 2.75 -> 3.25
    Bayern to win CL Group A: 1.3 -> 1.25
    Chelsea to win CL Group E: 1.2 -> 1.14
    Chelsea Top 4 Finish: 1.11 -> 1.17

    Total Odds: 52.38 -> 48.77
    Potential winnings: ~€25,000 (at exchange rates on the day).

    Back to where we started, despite some very poor results for my selections. Onwards and upwards with the Champions League and Championship this midweek.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Well a semi decent night for the bet, but it would have been great if Chelsea had of won tonight. They drew, but Leverkusen were beaten, so two draws in their last two games will see Chelsea win the group. Leverkusen away and Valencia home.

    None of McCormack's main rivals scored tonight and I really fancy him to score tomorrow night against Blackpool at home. He's not scored in four games but has been playing well by all accounts.

    Bayern beating the dirty Italians of Napoli in Munich would be nice too.

    Odds will be updated on Thursday.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,210 ✭✭✭argosy2006


    update odds :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    .... and update 6 is a thumbs down too as Chelsea failed to beat Genk!

    Original Stake: £410 (€475 approx)

    McCormack Top Scorer: 11.0 -> 9.0
    Exeter Relegation from L1: 2.75 -> 3.25
    Bayern to win CL Group A: 1.3 -> 1.17
    Chelsea to win CL Group E: 1.2 -> 1.29
    Chelsea Top 4 Finish: 1.11 -> 1.17

    Total Odds: 52.38 -> 51.65


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Original Stake: £410 (€475 approx)

    McCormack Top Scorer: 11.0 -> 9.0
    Exeter Relegation from L1: 2.75 -> 3.25
    Bayern to win CL Group A: 1.3 -> 1.17
    Chelsea to win CL Group E: 1.2 -> 1.29
    Chelsea Top 4 Finish: 1.11 -> 1.20

    Total Odds: 52.38 -> 52.97 :(

    Well, the odds on my accumulator have gone longer than on day one for the first time.

    Please bare in mind that my bet is with Coral, who only go 7.0 for McCormack now. By the way, it seems as though nobody wants the golden boot this year. :confused:

    Paddypower and Boyles don't offer great odds on all the selections so I still wouldn't recommend anyone get on right now.

    Bit of a break now for the internationals... Come on Ireland!



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    After the early promise of the bet, it seems like the gambling gods are not really looking down on me.

    Exeter are on a good run, despite not playing well. Eeking out results, making it look like they may survive. Hopefully the fundamentals )of them being **** will shine through. Kinda the opposite of too good to go down... Too **** to survive.

    Rickie Lambert banged in a hatrick, two of which were pens. Southampton have got 4 pens since I put the pen on and all were converted by Lambert. Ross McCormack was subbed before the hour :mad:

    Chelsea have imploded. A loss for them tonight will bring the whole bet down, so confidence in my selections has swung from good to bad, to ugly!

    At least the Bayern selection has come good. One out of one so far, so there is a positive side to the update in that respect. So here is the update.

    Original Stake: £410 (€475 approx)

    McCormack Top Scorer: 11.0 -> 11.0
    Exeter Relegation from L1: 2.75 -> 3.25
    Bayern to win CL Group A: 1.3 -> 1.0
    Chelsea to win CL Group E: 1.2 -> 1.29
    Chelsea Top 4 Finish: 1.11 -> 1.4

    Total Odds: 52.38 -> 64.56 frown.gif

    In the red! Update to come later tonight or tomorrow as the Chelsea game is v important for the bet.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Well Chelsea lost to Leverkusen and now McCormack isn't even on the bench. RIP Lucky Cat.


  • Registered Users Posts: 386 ✭✭lmao


    Bet looking more positive now! Chelsea will top the group. Best of luck with the rest of the bet.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Indeed! The Lucky Cat has arisen from the dead, like Phoenix from the Flames.

    It turns out McCormack wasn't left out of the squad for form reasons.... His wife had a baby! Another plus is that Lambert is nursing a hip injury.

    Odds update now.

    McCormack Top Scorer: 11.0 -> 10
    Exeter Relegation from L1: 2.75 -> 3.75
    Bayern to win CL Group A: 1.3 -> WIN
    Chelsea to win CL Group E: 1.2 -> WIN
    Chelsea Top 4 Finish: 1.11 -> 1.4

    Total Odds: 52.38 -> 52.5

    Back to where I started!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭yesno1234


    turbobaby wrote: »
    Indeed! The Lucky Cat has arisen from the dead, like Phoenix from the Flames.

    It turns out McCormack wasn't left out of the squad for form reasons.... His wife had a baby! Another plus is that Lambert is nursing a hip injury.

    Odds update now.

    McCormack Top Scorer: 11.0 -> 10
    Exeter Relegation from L1: 2.75 -> 3.75
    Bayern to win CL Group A: 1.3 -> WIN
    Chelsea to win CL Group E: 1.2 -> WIN
    Chelsea Top 4 Finish: 1.11 -> 1.4

    Total Odds: 52.38 -> 52.5

    Back to where I started!

    Big match at the weekend for Exeter, could see a significant drop in odds if they lose and results go your way:D. Your a lucky boy, bet was almost gone.:pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    yesno1234 wrote: »
    Big match at the weekend for Exeter, could see a significant drop in odds if they lose and results go your way:D. Your a lucky boy, bet was almost gone.:pac:

    Sure is a big game for Exeter, actually they have a few big games coming up... I think their results have been flattering them recently.

    Think the odds went out to over 200/1 :eek:

    Still a long shot but its only a treble now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 188 ✭✭yaaaboy


    Great win for chelsea against man city last night, they will surely go on to finish in the top 4 now.
    Some un-nerving news about Ross mccormack though, apparently wolves are lining up a bid for him in January


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Yeah Chelsea getting their act together alright and Spurs losing to Stoke was a nice little bonus. With them out of the Europa League now they're looking good for a top 4. I see two from Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal making it.

    McCormack linked with Wolves and Keogh saying he wnts to move from Wolves to Leeds has pushed McCormack out to 15.0. I cant see it happening myself. Keogh is similar to Becchio and with him back to full fitness i think Keogh will not be used as much.

    I fully expect McC to play today. Disappointed to find out Snodgrass takes the pens. Lambert (the pr1ck!) has got plenty of pens this year and that obviously gives him an edge.

    Wont bother updating the odds till after this weekend (as they've gone up!).

    Good weekend to all here...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    I am preparing the grave for the Lucky Cat again after Rickie Lambert bagged another goal, and Ross McCormack again played less than 70 mins. Both are at opposite ends of the confidence scale and we all know how important that is for strikers.

    15 v 10.

    However, the grave will be a shallow one, as something like a serious injury to Lambert and his niggling hip would be something to celebrate, and would be a good enough reason for a rise from the dead (again!).

    Merry xmas all.


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