if the government falls, then what??

Tabnabs · 07-11-2014 12:04pm

Interesting to see that today the good citizens of Belgium are fed up with their share of austerity:

Belgian police have used tear gas and water cannon against violent anti-austerity protesters in central Brussels after a largely peaceful march by about 100,000 workers.

Several vehicles were set alight by protesters who also hurled stones and flares at police. About 50 people were hurt and 30 detained, officials said.

Belgium's new government plans to raise the pension age, freeze wages and make public service cuts to meet EU targets.

Trade unions plan a series of strikes.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29944648

Perhaps the delay in getting a government in place and simply leaving the mandarin's to run the show wasn't such a successful move after all? Authority without responsibility seldom ends well.

Dickie10 · 17-11-2014 12:09am

sinn fein definitly wont get in the next election now anyway, thank god. im begining to really belive it will be a FG/ FF coalition next time round, people in middle class, business owneres and farmers will be afraid to vote any loony lefts in, and rightly so

Banjo String · 17-11-2014 12:26am

Thread title needs changed.

'when'.....

Tick tock......

BoJack Horseman · 17-11-2014 1:17am

Banjo String wrote: »

Thread title needs changed.

'when'.....

Tick tock......

Change the title and the answer to the thread remains the same.

One long reason why if/when they fall they will be re-elected anyway..... Simply not enough people will fall for the empty populism offered by the Shinners & the rest of the rag-tag communists.

Godge · 17-11-2014 5:46pm

Banjo String wrote: »

Thread title needs changed.

'when'.....

Tick tock......

We could change it to "when the election comes round in March 2016, then what?"

hmmm · 17-11-2014 8:39pm

The assumption is that a FF/FG coalition would inevitably open the door for a SF led government. However in Germany they also had a "grand coalition" where the two biggest parties coalesced, and they managed to remain as the two biggest.

In the interest of keeping the provos away from destroying the country and our democracy, and getting their hands on Gardai and Army files, if it comes down to it I think we will see a FF/FG government.....

Dickie10 · 17-11-2014 9:00pm

just as a matter of intrest when exactly did sinn fein become the bogey men of irish politics they really seem like the wolf in the fairytale! was it after the civil war or after ww2?

how did FF/FG get away so clean after murdering each other in civil war and before that when they as the IRA murdered innocent civilians during the war of independence? just a question im a FF and FG voter

hmmm · 17-11-2014 9:14pm

Dickie10 wrote: »

how did FF/FG get away so clean after murdering each other in civil war and before that when they as the IRA murdered innocent civilians during the war of independence? just a question im a FF and FG voter

Whatever FF&FG did was a 100 years ago, many of the atrocities committed in the name of the republic by those SF support happened in living memory of many of us - and many of the people who committed or supported those crimes are still alive and lecturing us about how we need to "move on".

We've seen with the recent Maria Cahill case the real face of SF - all those pretty and eloquent young people who normally front the party are nowhere to be seen and aren't answering questions, while the old timers lay down the line the party is going to take.

Villain · 17-11-2014 10:46pm

hmmm wrote: »

Whatever FF&FG did was a 100 years ago, many of the atrocities committed in the name of the republic by those SF support happened in living memory of many of us - and many of the people who committed or supported those crimes are still alive and lecturing us about how we need to "move on".

When it comes to physical violence you are correct however if you include the economic atrocities that FF put upon us then you have a different debate. I mean the leader of our country went in front of a tribunal and misled them on his finances while he was Minister for Finance FFS! then every Minister in his Government including Michael Martin rowed in behind him and supported and people are supposed to trust him to lead the opposition?

People need to get real, the main reason why SF are on the rise is because FF shafted the ordinary people of this state and one of those who was at the helm is now leading that party.

joe912 · 17-11-2014 11:40pm

Dickie10 wrote: »

sinn fein definitly wont get in the next election now anyway, thank god. im begining to really belive it will be a FG/ FF coalition next time round, people in middle class, business owneres and farmers will be afraid to vote any loony lefts in, and rightly so

so what your saying is the people who always voted f.g will continue to vote for f.g (middle class and farmers) a sizeable portion of f.f voters will vote s.f. Not only that s.f will get votes from working class areas, where previously they couldn't be arsed voting.

Dickie10 · 17-11-2014 11:58pm

cant see ff voters going for sinn fein , i think people are underestimating the amount of loyal ff voters who are just under the surface , the most poular party in irish history does not go away that quickly. id say there could be a very sizeable vote for ff in 2016. in fact i can see fg and ff being far ahead of sinn fein. the cahill debacle has finished sinn fein

nice_guy80 · 18-11-2014 12:15am

all the soft FG voters will head straight for FF

jungle_hostage · 18-11-2014 12:30am

Dickie10 wrote: »

sinn fein definitly wont get in the next election now anyway, thank god. im begining to really belive it will be a FG/ FF coalition next time round, people in middle class, business owneres and farmers will be afraid to vote any loony lefts in, and rightly so

FG and FF ( useless as they are ) better put aside ancient and irrelevant hostilitys for the sake of the country

Sierra Oscar · 18-11-2014 1:53am

It looks like Cork City Council is set to be dissolved after councillors were unable to pass a budget tonight for the coming year. An administrator will have to be appointed by the Government and the people of Cork City will have to do without local representation.

The composition of the council is as follows:

FF - 10
SF - 8
FG - 5
IND - 4
AAA - 3
WP - 1

A similar situation could be repeated at the next GE nationally whereby you do not have one single party coming out clearly on top, but instead multiple parties could be grouped together. If that occurs I think we could have a number of General Elections within a year.

For Reals · 18-11-2014 1:59am

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Change the title and the answer to the thread remains the same.

One long reason why if/when they fall they will be re-elected anyway..... Simply not enough people will fall for the empty populism offered by the Shinners & the rest of the rag-tag communists.

I don't know, their might be a swing back from the right wing conservatives.

BoJack Horseman · 18-11-2014 9:46am

For Reals wrote: »

I don't know, their might be a swing back from the right wing conservatives.

Who would they be?
All I see are big state centrists.

Right wing parties are very scarse.

Dannyboy83 · 18-11-2014 11:48am

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It looks like Cork City Council is set to be dissolved after councillors were unable to pass a budget tonight for the coming year. An administrator will have to be appointed by the Government and the people of Cork City will have to do without local representation.

The composition of the council is as follows:

FF - 10
SF - 8
FG - 5
IND - 4
AAA - 3
WP - 1

A similar situation could be repeated at the next GE nationally whereby you do not have one single party coming out clearly on top, but instead multiple parties could be grouped together. If that occurs I think we could have a number of General Elections within a year.

Not the first time they've been down this road tho - they always find a way when it comes to the gravy train

http://www.thejournal.ie/cork-city-council-budget-1785564-Nov2014/
May 2014

Cork City Council this week approved conference expenses rejected at the previous meeting.
The approval of expenses this week comes after Sinn Féin's 'symbolic victory' at the last meeting when they had expenses rejected due to a low attendance from the three pact parties.

That rejection was the first time it had happened in the five year life of the Council, and meant that councillors who had attended conferences which were not approved, may have had to pay for them out of their own pockets.
Cork city councillors have claimed €332,218 in conference attendance expenses since 2009, the Cork Independent previously revealed.

Figures seen this week show that seven city councillors have claimed over €20,000 in the five years. Labour Councillor Michael O'Connell has received €25,027.35 in conference expenses since June 2009 with his party colleague Denis O'Flynn claiming €23,736.43.
Fianna Fáil's Cllr Mary Shields has claimed €22,569.70 while Cllr Terry Shannon tops the bill with €29,288.44 claimed.

Cllr O'Leary who calls for a vote on conference expenses at each meeting, opposed them again on Monday, citing a rule which states that resolutions voted upon cannot be returned to council within a three month period.
Sinn Féin do not claim for conference expenses. Socialist Party, Workers Party and two independents, Cllrs Mick Finn and Kieran McCarthy, have not claimed expenses for attending conferences in the past five years.
Standing orders were consulted and corporate affairs approved the vote saying that the rule referred only to motions and not expenses.

“It shows up the pact,” Mr O'Leary stated. “It shows up the greediness of people who are trying to get over the limit of expenses which is €4,700,” he alleged.
“I find it a bit strange if I was to stand up and try to bring back a motion, I wouldn't be allowed.
“I would go so far as to say that the official explanation that the city gave was to support the majority viewpoint on the council which is that conferences are okay and we can spend as much as we want.”
The conference expenses vote passed by 11 votes to nine.

Dyr · 18-11-2014 1:17pm

The irish electorate might move at the speed of tectonic plates but, like tectonic plates, they also go f**king mental every few generations and completely change the landscape

I think we might be due an earthquake in the next few years

BoJack Horseman · 18-11-2014 1:22pm

Bambi wrote: »

The irish electorate might move at the speed of tectonic plates but, like tectonic plates, they also go f**king mental every few generations and completely change the landscape

When was the last government that wasn't lead by either FF or FG?

The landscape isn't changing.

Zubeneschamali · 18-11-2014 1:39pm

Bambi wrote: »

I think we might be due an earthquake in the next few years

We just had an earthquake - FF down from largest party with 71 seats to just 20 .

Labour will get decimated next time, same as always after a coalition, and Sinn fein will pick up a lot of those seats, with some going to independents. FG will lose seats to independents, too.

But I think FF are at the bottom of the barrel, and will get 20ish seats again. FG would need 63 seats for a FG-FF govt. Or they could pull the last few Labour survivors into a Rainbow I suppose and call it the anti-anti-austerity alliance.

Quin_Dub · 18-11-2014 4:15pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We just had an earthquake - FF down from largest party with 71 seats to just 20 .

Labour will get decimated next time, same as always after a coalition, and Sinn fein will pick up a lot of those seats, with some going to independents. FG will lose seats to independents, too.

But I think FF are at the bottom of the barrel, and will get 20ish seats again. FG would need 63 seats for a FG-FF govt. Or they could pull the last few Labour survivors into a Rainbow I suppose and call it the anti-anti-austerity alliance.

I don't see it really...

I reckon that SF and the Independents/PbP/AAA types will cancel each other out in a lot of constituencies and when taken all together they'll only be marginally higher than their current total...

These guys don't transfer well... If you give your 1st preference to an AAA/PbP type candidate are you likely to go SF next or vice-versa?

You'll have one or the other in a constituency but hardly ever both.

FG will be in power next time out , only question is with who.

My personal opinion is that it'll be a very slim margin majority coalition with Lab and 4-6 independents (Creighton et al).

Whether or not FF join them will depend on the extent of their recovery (and there will be a recovery) - If they stay in the low 20's , I can't see them going in to Government as a significant junior partner, however if they break 30 and FG drop into the 50's I can see it happening on the basis of it being a "coalition of equals" (or at least sold as such to the FF grass roots)

Also 15 months is a long time in politics....

if the government falls, then what??

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