if the government falls, then what??

Godge · 04-11-2014 3:44pm

sign_out wrote: »

o cuiv becoming leader would signal the final nail in the coffin for FF , not only is the guy socially very conservative , he is also a tax and spend politican , he is completely and utterly from a different era and i say that as someone who knows he has plenty of integrity

O'Cuiv would sweep the vote outside Dublin for FF leaving SF to pick up the votes in Dublin and around the border region making them a natural fit for a coalition government that could get elected time and again.

Dannyboy83 · 04-11-2014 3:50pm

First Up wrote: »

if you propose to tear something down, you ought to be able to describe what you will build in its place. "Something else" is not a strategy.

:rolleyes:
Possibly the silliest statement I've read on boards this year.

New Deal, Third Way,

Does this ring a bell? "Change you can believe in"

..."Something else" is the MAIN strategy in politics.

mrbrianj · 04-11-2014 3:51pm

First Up wrote: »

if you propose to tear something down, you ought to be able to describe what you will build in its place. "Something else" is not a strategy.

You are right. But it does show the journey the nation has been on.

Nobody was happy with what was happening during the boom - we were just too busy or too comfortable to stop, but most could identify things weren't right.

In the crash, we sucked it up. Most went to the brink, alot went over. They are so fed up, and have been through so much, its not a case of "something else" its a case of "Anything else".

It wont work, but right or wrong, there is a section of voters wanting change regardless of what it brings - a very dangerous beast

Quin_Dub · 04-11-2014 3:56pm

There are a few things to consider here..

SF historically don't get close to their opinion poll numbers in actual votes - They usually pull in about 20% lower than the opinion polls whereas the other parties are usually within about 5% of their opinion poll figures.

That kind of vote level will not see them break 20 seats nationally.
I also don't see very many places where an SF candidate will bring in a running mate due to their lack of transfers from other parties..

What may happen is that SF candidates will push out other Left parties resulting in no major net loss for the traditional main parties- For example Richard Boyd-Barrett could very easily lose his seat to an SF candidate in the next election (they didn't run a candidate last time out) , but RB-B and SF will not both get seats in that constituency.

The "Don't Knows" will be the decider , if the economy continues on it's current trajectory and the Budget this time next years delivers further tax cuts , then they'll vote FF/FG/Lab.

FG will be the main party in Government after the next election , the only real question is who they'll be in coalition with. I cannot see them (or SF to be fair) doing a deal for FG/SF - Personally I think it will be an FG/Lab government with a thin majority or with the support of a few independents getting them over the line... FG/FF is a possibility , but it's hard to see them being able to do a deal..

First Up · 04-11-2014 4:02pm

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

:rolleyes:
Possibly the silliest statement I've read on boards this year.

New Deal, Third Way,

Does this ring a bell? "Change you can believe in"

..."Something else" is the MAIN strategy in politics.

But what will that something else be? SF economics are populist gibberish. Agreed there is a percentage of idiots out there who will vote for it but nowhere near enough.

I think Quin_Dub's analysis is pretty accurate.

First Up · 04-11-2014 4:08pm

mrbrianj wrote: »

You are right. But it does show the journey the nation has been on.

Nobody was happy with what was happening during the boom - we were just too busy or too comfortable to stop, but most could identify things weren't right.

In the crash, we sucked it up. Most went to the brink, alot went over. They are so fed up, and have been through so much, its not a case of "something else" its a case of "Anything else".

It wont work, but right or wrong, there is a section of voters wanting change regardless of what it brings - a very dangerous beast

Agree but common sense has a habit of kicking in as people enter the voting booth.

Opinion polls, populist rabble rousers, protest marches and commentators stirring it up all get their innings but when it comes to the crunch, not many people vote to cut off their nose just to see what their face will look like.

PopePalpatine · 04-11-2014 4:10pm

For Reals wrote: »

We've many shysters and greasy conmen in politics, but O'Cuiv is the biggest danger to Ireland of them all.
He's old school church and state. Was up to his neck in Fianna Fail, but backed off into the shadows pre demolishing of the country.

Just out of curiosity (I guess O Cuiv's strategy of retreating into the shadows before the crash worked!), just how much of a social conservative is he?

VeryOwl · 04-11-2014 4:12pm

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

as opposed to ?

trying the same thing and expecting a different result?

False dichotomy.

BoJack Horseman · 04-11-2014 4:14pm

PopePalpatine wrote: »

just how much of a social conservative is he?

Very.

He may not be militant Opus Dei member like Sen Ronan Mullins.
However he is very catholic.

I'd imagine a 2016-2021 programme for government with O'Cuiv involved would include commitments to avoid any 8th amendment/abortion referendum.
Or delaying/modifications of any SSM bill after the 2015 referendum.

Quin_Dub · 04-11-2014 4:17pm

First Up wrote: »

Agree but common sense has a habit of kicking in as people enter the voting booth.

Opinion polls, populist rabble rousers, protest marches and commentators stirring it up all get their innings but when it comes to the crunch, not many people vote to cut off nose just to see what their face will look like.

Agreed - Having a rant to a pollster is a very different thing to standing in the Polling station and checking that box..

A bit like Kinnocks Labour in the UK during the Thatcher years - Lots of people publically saying that they didn't like her and would vote Labour , but come Election day.....Different story..

I posted a link to an article in another thread about the Local elections a few months back and I still believe that it applies today and will continue to apply for SF in General elections for the foreseeable future..

This is a quote from a local election voter in this article.

Leo Oman says he will give Sinn Féin a vote. “I can’t wait to give the Government a kick” he says. He’s fuming over how they are “raiding pensions” and “hammering people with disabilities.” The water charge isn't too welcome either. But he won’t vote for Sinn Féin in a general election. “I wouldn't agree with their views.”

Replace "Local Election vote" above with "Response to Opinion Poll" in the above quote and you have the current Poll results...

For Reals · 04-11-2014 4:23pm

For all the hooting and hollaring, Irish people are pretty conservative in my view. So you'll get protesters and of course those who will, 'Look at yer man' rather than participate, but their'll be no revolution in Ireland politically or otherwise any time soon.

Dannyboy83 · 04-11-2014 4:33pm

Godge wrote: »

The OECD study is the only independent definitive study that measures the relative progressivity of income tax in various countries. We are the most progressive.

We are the most progressive, not just in the EU, but the OECD.

The reason we are such a dramatic outlier is pretty straightforward.

We cannot tax low earners in this country as the cost of living is so high, they would then qualify for social assistance.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/politics/ireland-the-fifth-most-expensive-eu-state-as-cost-of-living-falls-167429.html
Ireland is the fifth most expensive state in the EU, according to a new report from the Central Statistics Office.
According to the report, only Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Luxembourg are more expensive places to live within the EU, with Irish prices 15 per cent above the EU average.
The report, Measuring Ireland’s Progress 2012, said this was a “considerable improvement” on the 2008 figure, when Irish prices were the second highest in the EU, at 30 per cent above the EU average

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ireland-is-worlds-fourth-most-expensive-for-petrol-30282087.html
Ireland is world's fourth most expensive for petrol.
A typical Irish driver pays about €2,754 a year in fuel and €1,652 of this is tax. Taxes account for almost 60 per cent of the cost of filling up the tank of a Ford Transit with petrol in Ireland, compared to about 13 per cent in the US

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ireland-has-fifth-highest-jobless-levels-in-global-survey-30172731.html
Ireland has fifth highest jobless levels in global survey

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/irish-drinkers-pay-highest-taxes-on-wine-in-europe-288666.html
Irish drinkers pay highest taxes on wine in Europe

etc.
etc.
etc.

In order to compensate for this, the marginal tax rate is the fifth highest in the EU, with among the lowest SRCOP:
The average wage is €35k, yet the higher rate of tax kicks below average at €32,800

American Chamber of Commerce demands changes to Ireland's tax regime

"The high marginal tax rate and the low entry point to that rate are major barriers to attracting and incentivising key talent which must be addressed. Widening the tax bands would reduce the income tax burden on all PAYE workers and would stimulate badly needed economic activity in the domestic market".

We are the outlier because we're so screwed up, not because we're so successful.

Silentcorner · 04-11-2014 4:46pm

For Reals wrote: »

For all the hooting and hollaring, Irish people are pretty conservative in my view. So you'll get protesters and of course those who will, 'Look at yer man' rather than participate, but their'll be no revolution in Ireland politically or otherwise any time soon.

I'm not too sure about that. FF have been decimated by the political revolution, and by the looks of things, Lab will suffer the same fate, Fg are flirting dangerously with it also, one thing is sure, nothing will ever be the same again in this country, we will be moving from FF/Fg/Lab grip on power that has existed since the foundations of the state.

Irish people do not always engage in hooting and hollering, but that does not mean there isn't anger, you have to remember, as a result of the great recession there has arguably never been a more politically engaged population, who in greater numbers vote with far more consideration than ever before, transfers are no longer guaranteed for the established parties, the rise of the independents and the complete inability of FF to capitalise in opposition in any meaningful way merely reflects the lack of options.

For me, that last point alone destroys the myth that we get the politicians we deserve...

Dannyboy83 · 04-11-2014 4:51pm

First Up wrote: »

But what will that something else be? SF economics are populist gibberish. Agreed there is a percentage of idiots out there who will vote for it but nowhere near enough.

I think Quin_Dub's analysis is pretty accurate.

You were so busy thinking of Thankwhore posts opposing Sinn Fein, you didn't bother to actually read my post at all.

After the destruction of FF, in order to kill Civil War politics and finally bring about normal Left/Right politics, I think there are one of two things (or maybe both) left that need to happen:
A) FG/FF coalition
SF in office as the large coalition partner

I never said SF politics weren't populist gibberish. That's the point.
(And Labour are every bit as bad btw.)

Neither FG nor FFs cover themselves in glory either. They just tend to be the least bad option. Promise us the world (to make Irish optional). Then once elected, renege, steal etc.

There is no Left/Right.
10 years ago, nobody would have believed FF could be broken.

For this country to escape political groundhog day, there will have to be a radical reaction to the utter farce that is Irish politics.
And the reaction is usually worse than the cause.
That's the point.

Either the mainstream parties are scared into reform (because EVEN the biggest economic crisis in the history of the country left us with Irish politics as usual) , or Sinn Fein will be elected, then the **** will truely hit the fan and change will come simply as a reaction to it.

First Up · 04-11-2014 4:59pm

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

You were so busy thinking of Thankwhore posts opposing Sinn Fein, you didn't bother to actually read my post at all.

I never said SF politics weren't populist gibberish. That's the point.
(And Labour are every bit as bad btw.)

Neither FG nor FFs cover themselves in glory either. They just tend to be the least bad option. Promise us the world (to make Irish optional). Then once elected, renege, steal etc.

There is no Left/Right.
10 years ago, nobody would have believed FF could be broken.

For this country to escape political groundhog day, there will have to be a radical reaction to the utter farce that is Irish politics.
And the reaction is usually worse than the cause.
That's the point.

Either the mainstream parties are scared into reform (because EVEN the biggest economic crisis in the history of the country left us with Irish politics as usual) , or Sinn Fein will be elected, then the **** will truely hit the fan and change will come simply as a reaction to it.

I was replying to the post where you said:

Possibly the silliest statement I've read on boards this year.

New Deal, Third Way,

Does this ring a bell? "Change you can believe in"

..."Something else" is the MAIN strategy in politics.

SoapMcTavish · 04-11-2014 5:03pm

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

You were so busy thinking of Thankwhore posts opposing Sinn Fein, you didn't bother to actually read my post at all.

I never said SF politics weren't populist gibberish. That's the point.
(And Labour are every bit as bad btw.)

Neither FG nor FFs cover themselves in glory either. They just tend to be the least bad option. Promise us the world (to make Irish optional). Then once elected, renege, steal etc.

There is no Left/Right.
10 years ago, nobody would have believed FF could be broken.

For this country to escape political groundhog day, there will have to be a radical reaction to the utter farce that is Irish politics.
And the reaction is usually worse than the cause.
That's the point.

Either the mainstream parties are scared into reform (because EVEN the biggest economic crisis in the history of the country left us with Irish politics as usual) , or Sinn Fein will be elected, then the **** will truely hit the fan and change will come simply as a reaction to it.

That is exactly what I think will happen - we seem to have turned a corner in attitudes to government. People out marching on the street ! Thought we were too lazy for that ...... so I think we're at a pivotal point in Irish politics.

Riskymove · 04-11-2014 5:05pm

crusher000 wrote: »

Those with the least disposable income pay more preportional in taxes than those in the higher band.

they are basically the same

29% vs 30%

lower incomes pay more proportionally in VAT and excise etc

Quin_Dub · 04-11-2014 5:20pm

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

For this country to escape political groundhog day, there will have to be a radical reaction to the utter farce that is Irish politics.
And the reaction is usually worse than the cause.
That's the point.

Either the mainstream parties are scared into reform (because EVEN the biggest economic crisis in the history of the country left us with Irish politics as usual) , or Sinn Fein will be elected, then the **** will truely hit the fan and change will come simply as a reaction to it.

SoapMcTavish wrote: »

That is exactly what I think will happen - we seem to have turned a corner in attitudes to government. People out marching on the street ! Thought we were too lazy for that ...... so I think we're at a pivotal point in Irish politics.

You might be right - But would we recover from the lesson we'd learn from electing an SF/Hard Left government?

Whilst our politicians are fairly universally shambolic in terms of their actual ability to Govern and implement Strategic long-term plans, the actual policies that they are currently making a bollocks of implementing are broadly speaking ( I believe) the right ones.

Thinking about the implications of giving an equally inept group of Hard left politicians the ability to make the same bollocks of implementing their policies just to teach FG/FF/Lab a lesson ,fills me with terror.

I don't know what the right answer is as to how to "fix" Irish politics , but I'm certain that electing any combination of the current hard left is the wrong answer.

First Up · 04-11-2014 5:24pm

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

We are the most progressive, not just in the EU, but the OECD.

The reason we are such a dramatic outlier is pretty straightforward.

We cannot tax low earners in this country as the cost of living is so high, they would then qualify for social assistance.

etc.
etc.
etc.

In order to compensate for this, the marginal tax rate is the fifth highest in the EU, with among the lowest SRCOP:
The average wage is €35k, yet the higher rate of tax kicks below average at €32,800

We are the outlier because we're so screwed up, not because we're so successful.

Lots of that could be debated but the real question is what shape of government might be able to do anything about any of it - and how??

BoJack Horseman · 04-11-2014 5:31pm

First Up wrote: »

Lots of that could be debated but the real question is what shape of government might be able to do anything about any of it - and how??

I'm not sure any would, or should.

I see it as a positive that a bigger slice of the tax pie is from income.

It should help stability of income for the government if consumer sentiment dips.

First Up · 04-11-2014 5:34pm

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

I'm not sure any would, or should.

I see it as a positive that a bigger slice of the tax pie is from income.

It should help stability of income for the government if consumer sentiment dips.

I would agree but there is a sentiment being aired here that we need to throw all the bits up in the air and start over, for no better reason than "something should be done."

Godge · 04-11-2014 5:35pm

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Very.

He may not be militant Opus Dei member like Sen Ronan Mullins.
However he is very catholic.

I'd imagine a 2016-2021 programme for government with O'Cuiv involved would include commitments to avoid any 8th amendment/abortion referendum.
Or delaying/modifications of any SSM bill after the 2015 referendum.

Had forgotten about this aspect of O'cuiv. SF won't really care about these issues and it opens up the possibility of SF/FF/RA coalition, very conservative on such social issues.

Sierra Oscar · 04-11-2014 5:46pm

Godge wrote: »

Had forgotten about this aspect of O'cuiv. SF won't really care about these issues and it opens up the possibility of SF/FF/RA coalition, very conservative on such social issues.

You are overlooking the fact that O'Cuiv has no support within the FF parliamentary party. If he did he would already be leader. During the leadership contest in 2011 he came in fourth place behind Mary Hanafin. He has even less support in the current parliamentary party. I seriously doubt he would like to be leader either.

Also SF are quite progressive when it comes to social issues these days. I certainly wouldn't class them as conservative. In fairness to them they came out in support of the Protection of Life During Pregnancy Bill without any dithering.

Zubeneschamali · 04-11-2014 5:51pm

Godge wrote: »

SF won't really care about these issues and it opens up the possibility of SF/FF/RA coalition, very conservative on such social issues.

In fairness to SF, this is not true at all. They appeal strongly to young voters, exactly the people who dislike all that Church/State stuff most. There's lots in their 2011 manifesto about equality, gender targets, positive ageing, same sex marriage, hate crime legislation, disability, etc. etc.

Dannyboy83 · 04-11-2014 5:53pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

You might be right - But would we recover from the lesson we'd learn from electing an SF/Hard Left government?

I've no doubt we'd recover.
Not so sure we would learn the lesson tho.

How many platitudes did we hear after the IMF came in?

When I started posting here back in 2008, That was supposed to be 'unthinkably uncrossable line' that would change everything.

But that's already just a memory and very, very little has changed.

Whilst our politicians are fairly universally shambolic in terms of their actual ability to Govern and implement Strategic long-term plans, the actual policies that they are currently making a bollocks of implementing are broadly speaking ( I believe) the right ones.

I love some of their policies - mainly the ones they promise but never deliver, in their manifestos.

Some of the policies they were implementing are the right ones - the ones they were told to by Europe.
They're just Middle Men. We could have had a team of business people in there doing the same job without even a tenth of the scandal, mismanagement, entitlement.

Thinking about the implications of giving an equally inept group of Hard left politicians the ability to make the same bollocks of implementing their policies just to teach FG/FF/Lab a lesson ,fills me with terror.

I don't know the right answer as to how to "fix" Irish politics , but I'm certain that electing any combination of the current hard left is the wrong answer.

If the Irish Parliamentary Party never had the opportunity to fail, they'd always be in the wings, distorting the system.

My experience of Eastern Europe is that the younger people couldn't differ more from the older generation, in that they have zero faith in communism.
It was tried and failed.
It's not an option.

Leaving the consequences of Sinn Fein in office to one side.... what other prospect would you suggest would scare the mainstream parties into reform?

The US (in effect) have a 2 party system (1 more than the USSR) and so the Republicans are always happy when the Democrats are in power, because they know, they're always 'Something Else'.

We have the illusion of choice, but we have a two party system for all intents and purposes
(FG + Labour) or (FF + someone else)

BoJack Horseman · 04-11-2014 5:55pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

You are overlooking the fact that O'Cuiv has no support within the FF parliamentary party. If he did he would already be leader. During the leadership contest in 2011 he came in fourth place behind Mary Hanafin. He has even less support in the current parliamentary party. I seriously doubt he would like to be leader either.

Ha!

I forgot about that.
Could have swore he was the main challenger!

Quin_Dub · 04-11-2014 6:10pm

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

I love some of their policies - mainly the ones they promise but never deliver, in their manifestos.

Some of the policies they were implementing are the right ones - the ones they were told to by Europe.
They're just Middle Men. We could have had a team of business people in there doing the same job without even a tenth of the scandal, mismanagement, entitlement.

Absolute agreement there - As I said , Right policies , implemented horribly...

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Leaving the consequences of Sinn Fein in office to one side.... what other prospect would you suggest would scare the mainstream parties into reform?

The US (in effect) have a 2 party system (1 more than the USSR) and so the Republicans are always happy when the Democrats are in power, because they know, they're always 'Something Else'.

We have the illusion of choice, but we have a two party system for all intents and purposes
(FG + Labour) or (FF + someone else)

I'm not convinced that an SF government would actually deliver the shock to the political system that you are thinking about... Like your US example in terms of the GOP and the Democrats , the desolation of a period of SF government would probably allow the main parties back in at the next election unchanged just for being "Not SF"...

The sad reality is that over the next 12-18 months or so up to the next election all groups will engage in barter politics to buy the votes with scant regard for the longer term implications and as an electorate , we'll lap it up.

In terms of whats needed for Actual Change , It's a near impossible solution to identify right now - The main requirement is a massive maturation of the electorate , which is a long way off , we still broadly speaking , vote like children jumping from one to the other as an act of spite rather than because we've sat down and looked at the long term big picture about where we want to be in 10 years , we vote based on where we want to be in 6 months....

Until we grow up as a country , we'll continue to elect different flavours of the same idiots and bounce from guard-rail to guard-rail along the course...

For Reals · 04-11-2014 6:16pm

Silentcorner wrote: »

[/B]

I'm not too sure about that. FF have been decimated by the political revolution, and by the looks of things, Lab will suffer the same fate, Fg are flirting dangerously with it also, one thing is sure, nothing will ever be the same again in this country, we will be moving from FF/Fg/Lab grip on power that has existed since the foundations of the state.

Irish people do not always engage in hooting and hollering, but that does not mean there isn't anger, you have to remember, as a result of the great recession there has arguably never been a more politically engaged population, who in greater numbers vote with far more consideration than ever before, transfers are no longer guaranteed for the established parties, the rise of the independents and the complete inability of FF to capitalise in opposition in any meaningful way merely reflects the lack of options.

For me, that last point alone destroys the myth that we get the politicians we deserve...

After Haughey you would think Fianna Fail were done...then Ahern, then Cowen....Sadly, Fianna Fail will be back, (and eventually with a bang/bust) with in the next ten years or less. Their supporters treat the party like family, not a political view point. Generations of the same people will continue to vote for them regardless of policies or corruption. I'd an argument with a lad in 2009. He said "I'm a Fianna Fail man, like my father and his father before him. Fianna Fail will sort it out. It was them bankers. We need to get Fianna Fail back in." I'm not joking. This is the mentality Ireland is up against.
I agree we are more politically engaged but is it enough? A friend of mine voted for a local Fine Gael candidate we both really dislike for many reasons because, "I'd rather vote for someone local who we know rather than some blow in".

We've had recessions before and it saw a rise in protests, but no great turn around in the affairs of state. Another reason why Fine Gael are full of **** after all the bull**** pre-election.

Sierra Oscar · 04-11-2014 6:20pm

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Ha!

I forgot about that.
Could have swore he was the main challenger!

Actually I was wrong about that particular part now that I look back on it. He was five votes ahead of Mary Hanafin. Martin still had over twice as many votes as O'Cuiv did when it came to the final count though.

There are very few in FF who actually see O'Cuiv as having leadership potential at this stage. It ain't gonna happen. As I said he would already be leader by now if he had the support.

Dannyboy83 · 04-11-2014 6:24pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Absolute agreement there - As I said , Right policies , implemented horribly...

I'm not convinced that an SF government would actually deliver the shock to the political system that you are thinking about... Like your US example in terms of the GOP and the Democrats , the desolation of a period of SF government would probably allow the main parties back in at the next election unchanged just for being "Not SF"...

The sad reality is that over the next 12-18 months or so up to the next election all groups will engage in barter politics to buy the votes with scant regard for the longer term implications and as an electorate , we'll lap it up.

In terms of whats needed for Actual Change , It's a near impossible solution to identify right now -

In terms of whats needed for Actual Change , It's a near impossible solution to identify right now......Yes & The only thing we know for certain is that it won't be the parties or system we presently have.

You may well be right that the shock won't be the one desired - I think we would see violent reform before it would return to another few generation of the two party FF/FG system, - but the problem is that I don't see any other shock, unless we somehow can implement a 'recall' mechanism in our political system but Turkeys don't vote for Xmas in the Dail.

The parties and system we have are not achieving the outcomes we desire. (Cue some naive fool telling one to start one's own party)
And no new party have been able to gain a foothold since 1933 while even the minor political reforms to the system which the Greens tried to get through, were thwarted.
It's a closed system.

The biggest development in Irish Politics since 1933 was 3/4 years ago, when FF were thrashed (and that was reactionary/radicalism/'something else'), but even still they're the 3rd most popular party.

If FF/FG fail to react to the electorate, the electorate will react by putting in SF.

The main requirement is a massive maturation of the electorate , which is a long way off , we still broadly speaking , vote like children jumping from one to the other as an act of spite rather than because we've sat down and looked at the long term big picture about where we want to be in 10 years , we vote based on where we want to be in 6 months....

Until we grow up as a country , we'll continue to elect different flavours of the same idiots and bounce from guard-rail to guard-rail along the course...

Always would have disputed this point & strongly so, in the past - until the Seanad vote last year.

First Up · 04-11-2014 6:52pm

Kind of amusing to read about the need for a revolution as we sit (and moan) in one of the wealthiest countries on the planet. Whatever political system represents perfection, it isn't evident anywhere I know of and if you look at the political systems in any of the countries that are doing better than us, you won't find then being run by populist independents, or parties that look any thing like SF.
No Irish government can operate in a vacuum. We are part of - and owe much our wealth to - the global economic system. We need people in government who understand that and can work within it, not twerps whinging about it.

For Reals · 04-11-2014 7:12pm

First Up wrote: »

Kind of amusing to read about the need for a revolution as we sit (and moan) in one of the wealthiest countries on the planet. Whatever political system represents perfection, it isn't evident anywhere I know of and if you look at the political systems in any of the countries that are doing better than us, you won't find then being run by populist independents, or parties that look any thing like SF.
No Irish government can operate in a vacuum. We are part of - and owe much our wealth to - the global economic system. We need people in government who understand that and can work within it, not twerps whinging about it.

'Nothing to see here, move along'?

I agree, we should wait until we are treated as badly as the United States treats it's own people before we gripe. I mean it's not Mexico:rolleyes:

Name one non-populist party that got into elected office?

I recall one twerp constatly whining from the opposition benches after being told where to go by the public....Edith Kenny.

Godge · 04-11-2014 9:32pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Actually I was wrong about that particular part now that I look back on it. He was five votes ahead of Mary Hanafin. Martin still had over twice as many votes as O'Cuiv did when it came to the final count though.

There are very few in FF who actually see O'Cuiv as having leadership potential at this stage. It ain't gonna happen. As I said he would already be leader by now if he had the support.

What are the rules for a leadership election? I suspect O'Cuiv would have appeal to the grassroots in the West.

First Up · 04-11-2014 11:30pm

For Reals wrote: »

'Nothing to see here, move along'?

I agree, we should wait until we are treated as badly as the United States treats it's own people before we gripe. I mean it's not Mexico:rolleyes:

Name one non-populist party that got into elected office?

I recall one twerp constatly whining from the opposition benches after being told where to go by the public....Edith Kenny.

Edith eh? Very mature.
He may have "whined" to your ears; some might call it constructive opposition and seeing as his government inherited a basket case and today we are the fastest growing economy in Europe, they might have a point.
But I'm sure you have a much better alternative in mind.

Dannyboy83 · 04-11-2014 11:52pm

First Up wrote: »

Edith eh? Very mature.
He may have "whined" to your ears; some might call it constructive opposition and seeing as his government inherited a basket case and today we are the fastest growing economy in Europe, they might have a point.
But I'm sure you have a much better alternative in mind.

Ah - so it's constructive criticism when they do it, but when we discuss Politics - you know, in a politics forum - we're 'whining twerps'.

And we're amusing...:rolleyes:

The "fastest growing economy" bestowal isn't necessarily a sign of economic genius, it's an indicator of how severe the crash was, unless Iceland and Latvia are to be considered economic powerhouses.

2012 - Iceland's economy expanded in the first quarter at its fastest pace since its near-meltdown, powered by a surge in exports, tourism and domestic consumption.

Sep 21, 2013 - Latvia is now the European Union's fastest-growing economy

In just four years, the country has gone from the European Union’s worst economic disaster zone to a model of what the International Monetary Fund hails as the healing properties of deep budget cuts. Latvia’s economy, after shriveling by more than 20 percent from its peak, grew by about 5 percent last year, making it the best performer in the 27-nation European Union. Its budget deficit is down sharply and exports are soaring.

That's not to say FG did nothing right; they did what they were told to do by Europe. But even in the areas where they had some say in the implementation rather than the end goal, they fell short and have possibly squandered a historically unprecedented opportunity for reform.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/busines...nd-290664.html
In very difficult circumstances, the Government has presided over and can take some credit for the improved fortunes of the economy. Yet it is still performing poorly in the opinion polls and I have heard a number of Fine Gael people express wonder at the ingratitude of the electorate.

No dispute that they were/are the least worst option available to us.

But for example:
FG came in on deficit targets a year ahead of schedule - by making Ireland the fifth highest personal income tax jurisdiction in the EU, yet only abolishing 45 quangos & creating 33 new ones (remedy as bad as the disease?)

Least worst != Good

The bitter truth is the electorate believe Fianna Fail would have done the same had they stayed in office and Fine Gael know it.
The electorate voted for reform and in that context, the perception is that FG have yet to deliver - that is the reason for the 'ingratitude'.

(I'm still waiting for Irish to be made optional)

p.s.
I wish they would just keep the money they took from us, instead of the latest budget sideshow refunding everyone the price of a bag of chips, and actually invest in some decent infrastructure.

Dickie10 · 05-11-2014 12:19am

OK here it is, this is the big stumbling block, MORTGAGES there it is , the noose around the neck . this is the reason middle / higher working class irish FAMILIES are broke. People on very average and above average incomess saddled with huge debt from houses bought between 1998-2008.

Cut their mrtgage repayment in half as would be the true value of the houses they bought and things wwould be a lot easier on everyone then we actually would see a local , on the ground recovery. The big white elephant hammering down the door trying to get into Joe bloggs front room has a sign saying ,

"For the first time ever irish people will not improve their living standards from the previous generation". this is a hard pill to swallow, but the deal is we all have to just get by with what we have, very little, BUT a lot more than generations in the 1940s/50s/60s. this is reality for 80% of irish people. We just got unlucky this happens , think of USA during the depression , they had it in the post ww 1 boom then lost it all, that generation had to suffer before coming good again in the 1950s, it may well be the 40-55 age group who are wrote off this time around and the generation under 35 probarbly will never be as frugal having witnessed such economic carnage. For the people affected this is brutal honesty, they will have to just get by and no more perhaps they have college degrees, two cars they might have to face the prospect of their children not being ale to go to college like they did, perhaps immigration , which is happening.

For the rest of the countrys sake we need these people to hold their heads in the next election and not vote in the SF or looney lefts because if that happens we may not recover for 50-60 years, and their children and grand children will suffer badly, i actually belive we could end up like Cuba or Russia if the Sinners got into power.

The moral ? well we just have to take it, i remeber reading an article once about lower working class america, people working 2/3 part time jobs , no medical insurance, actually dying from the a simple flu or tetanus poisioning, living in mobile homes etc . this may well happen in ireland. but this is reality in UNited States, maybe its not that bad after all

First Up · 05-11-2014 8:47am

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Ah - so it's constructive criticism when they do it, but when we discuss Politics - you know, in a politics forum - we're 'whining twerps'.

And we're amusing...:rolleyes:

The "fastest growing economy" bestowal isn't necessarily a sign of economic genius, it's an indicator of how severe the crash was, unless Iceland and Latvia are to be considered economic powerhouses.

That's not to say FG did nothing right; they did what they were told to do by Europe. But even in the areas where they had some say in the implementation rather than the end goal, they fell short and have possibly squandered a historically unprecedented opportunity for reform.

No dispute that they were/are the least worst option available to us.

But for example:
FG came in on deficit targets a year ahead of schedule - by making Ireland the fifth highest personal income tax jurisdiction in the EU, yet only abolishing 45 quangos & creating 33 new ones (remedy as bad as the disease?)

Least worst != Good

The bitter truth is the electorate believe Fianna Fail would have done the same had they stayed in office and Fine Gael know it.
The electorate voted for reform and in that context, the perception is that FG have yet to deliver - that is the reason for the 'ingratitude'.

(I'm still waiting for Irish to be made optional)

p.s.
I wish they would just keep the money they took from us, instead of the latest budget sideshow refunding everyone the price of a bag of chips, and actually invest in some decent infrastructure.

Complaining while offering nothing as an alternative is whining. That is true of posters here as it is of opportunist "opposition" politicians. This thread asks what would happen if the government "falls". I have yet to see anything that offers a realistic alternative or improvement.
But by all means keep whining if it makes you feel better.

BoJack Horseman · 05-11-2014 10:33am

Dickie10 wrote: »

Cut their mrtgage repayment in half

Who would pay the tens of billions that would cost?

Dannyboy83 · 05-11-2014 11:00am

First Up wrote: »

Complaining while offering nothing as an alternative is whining. That is true of posters here as it is of opportunist "opposition" politicians. This thread asks what would happen if the government "falls". I have yet to see anything that offers a realistic alternative or improvement.
But by all means keep whining if it makes you feel better.

Alternative:
1. Dust off the Five Point Plan & Key Part: Actually start implementing it
2. Prepare to be unpopular with some of the electorate like any statesman should be, (and re-elected by those of us who actually voted for the FPP)
3.??????????
4. PROFIT!!!!

blackwhite · 05-11-2014 11:31am

Quin_Dub wrote: »

In terms of whats needed for Actual Change , It's a near impossible solution to identify right now - The main requirement is a massive maturation of the electorate , which is a long way off , we still broadly speaking , vote like children jumping from one to the other as an act of spite rather than because we've sat down and looked at the long term big picture about where we want to be in 10 years , we vote based on where we want to be in 6 months....

Until we grow up as a country , we'll continue to elect different flavours of the same idiots and bounce from guard-rail to guard-rail along the course...

These two paragraphs cut to the core of the majority of the problems that this country continually has - namely, an electorate that refuses to take any of the responsibilities that come with the right to vote.

There's a vast swathe of the electorate that will refuse to apply any critical reasoning whatsoever to the promises and claims being spouted by oppositions parties (and I count FG & LAB pre-2011 election in this).
They will happily lap up whatever wonderful nonsense is thrown out by people promising the sun and the moon in return for a vote.
Following the elections, the new government have to deal with reality and if they have any responsible bones in their bodies will end up breaking the unrealistic promises in order to try and do what's best for the country (for those that try and keep the nonsense promises, and try to avoid doing anything "unpopular" - see FF under Bertie).
When the government does what is best for the country, these same ever-trusting sections of the electorate, and the opposition, start screaming about broken promises - when the reality is that the now-opposition were either 1) making even more outlandish promises, or 2) previously in government making similar decisions to the current government; and that any member of the electorate who took their voting responsibilities seriously would have applied a tiny bit of critical thinking and known that certain of the pre-election promises were so unrealistic that they should have been disregarded from the outset.

As for the thread title, if the Government falls we will have an election where the floating elements of the electorate will largely fall into three camps.

There's the people who will vote for the candidate and not the party - taking a parochial view on national issues, and are largely ignorant of what implication their vote will have on the future direction of the country. Often these people's votes end up meaning diddly squat, but every now and again we get a Lowry or a Healy-Rae who ends up in a position of disproportionate influence, and the interests of the country will be pushed to one side in favour of a few potholes being filled.

There will be those who vote for the people who tell them what they want to hear, who vote based on emotions instead of rational analysis. Mostly they currently fall into the "I'm very angry" camp and have since the boom ended - they voted for Labour last time out on the basis that Gilmore was "very angry" and promised them some magic beans. They mostly voted for FF in the boom years because Bertie kept promising them more and more free things that nobody would ever have to pay for. They will now vote for whichever of FF/SF/Independents offers them the nicest sounding magic beans this time around. In times of economic restraint, these people will generally vote for the "head in sand, it's always someone else's fault and someone else should pay" party, usually from the opposition; and in boom times these people will tend to vote for the party that makes the most outrageous promises about how to squander any proceeds of the boom and shows the least forward planning. These voters normally don't bother to actually understand what the actual issues facing the country are, and in my opinion they are ignoring their responsibility to be informed voters.

Finally, there will then be those who will vote based on who they think will do what's actually best for the country as a whole. They will make an effort to educate themselves on what the country is currently facing, and is likely to face over the next 5/10 years, and will assess what promises are likely to be feasible, and what are pie in the sky. These voters will not necessarily all vote for one party or another, they will vote for whomsoever they believe will be realistically able and likely to implement the policies that the voter wants. There will be voters for all parties who fall into this camp (and some independent voters too), but unfortunately for us all these voters don't ever appear to be in the majority, and end up at the mercy of the irrational, and usually ill-informed 2nd group above.

Zubeneschamali · 05-11-2014 11:41am

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

1. Dust off the Five Point Plan

1) The 5 point plan was Fine Gaels: Labour did not buy into some of it, so hoping the Govt. will enact it is silly.

2) The five points were:

Jobs - On target.

Budget: Income tax not increased (kind of)

Public Sector: Shot down by Labour

Health: Still a disaster, and not easy to fix.

Politics: Local govt reform actually happened. Seanad Referendum happened. State cars reformed. Constitutional convention in place.

The_Captain · 05-11-2014 11:56am

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Jobs - On target

I'm no political expert, but wasn't the FPP supposed to create jobs, rather than reduce unemployment.
Creating mass emigration and massaging unemployment figures through jobbridge isn't job creation.

Quin_Dub · 05-11-2014 12:08pm

The_Captain wrote: »

I'm no political expert, but wasn't the FPP supposed to create jobs, rather than reduce unemployment.
Creating mass emigration and massaging unemployment figures through jobbridge isn't job creation.

That's a fallacy...

Emigration and jobsbridge have had a negligible impact on the Unemployment figures

Emigration details for 2014 here , less than 20% of those emigrating were unemployed.

It's definitely a problem no question, particularly with the number of graduates/highly skilled workers leaving , but it's got nothing to do with any reductions in the Unemployment rates

Jobsbridge is tiny numbers overall , insignificant in the overall scheme of things

Zubeneschamali · 05-11-2014 12:11pm

The_Captain wrote: »

I'm no political expert, but wasn't the FPP supposed to create jobs, rather than reduce unemployment.
Creating mass emigration and massaging unemployment figures through jobbridge isn't job creation.

Nope, employment dropped slightly in 2012, but has grown, as in more people in jobs, in 2013 and 2014.

Not just less people on the dole or in training/internships: 1.5% jobs growth each year, with similar growth predicted in 2015 and 2016.

BoJack Horseman · 05-11-2014 12:16pm

The_Captain wrote: »

I'm no political expert, but wasn't the FPP supposed to create jobs, rather than reduce unemployment.
Creating mass emigration and massaging unemployment figures through jobbridge isn't job creation.

The amount of full time (paid) jobs created since 2011 is something like 130k-140k

This has cost something like €1.5bn in supports/incentives from the gov.
(Mostly paid for by the pension pot raiding)

Contrast that with the SF jobs plan, requiring the borrowing of €13bn for the same result.
http://www.sinnfein.ie/getting-ireland-back-to-work

Take you choice
1.5bn burden vs 13bn burden..... same result.

PopePalpatine · 05-11-2014 12:18pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

1) The 5 point plan was Fine Gaels: Labour did not buy into some of it, so hoping the Govt. will enact it is silly.

2) The five points were:

Jobs - On target.

Budget: Income tax not increased (kind of)

Public Sector: Shot down by Labour

Health: Still a disaster, and not easy to fix.

Politics: Local govt reform actually happened. Seanad Referendum happened. State cars reformed. Constitutional convention in place.

The thing is, in the Constitutional Convention thread in this subforum I think you get the impression that it's being largely ignored, with a few exceptions.

Dannyboy83 · 05-11-2014 1:51pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

1) The 5 point plan was Fine Gaels: Labour did not buy into some of it, so hoping the Govt. will enact it is silly.

Then don't go into coalition with an opposing ideology....one which opposes the manifesto I voted for - That is silly.

Fine Gael had enough seats to form a government with a few independents, or FF. But since we don't get to vote on a FG/Labour coalition OR have no recall system, we constantly end up with power grab governments that satisfy nobody and end up deadlocked.

They shouldn't be in government with Labour.
They have opposing ideologies and goals.
But we, the electorate, have no control on this outcome.

2) The five points were:

I don't have time to go through these in detail at the moment, will try to get to it later, but what I will say is that they have done well on some issues - as well as could be expected - e.g. jobs
The politically soft options.

They have totally let us down on others - e.g. facing down the unions.
The politically hard options - the ones which really, really need fixing.

BoJack Horseman · 05-11-2014 1:59pm

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

They have totally let us down on others - e.g. facing down the unions.

What other party will "face down the unions"?

The Socialists?

Dannyboy83 · 05-11-2014 3:25pm

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

What other party will "face down the unions"?

The Socialists?

FG + Ind
or
FG + FF

From the 3 potential coalition partners (Ind, FF, Labour) which party are LEAST likely to face down the unions?

What party differ the most ideologically from FG?
(The one that just crossed the senate floor?)

mrbrianj · 05-11-2014 3:43pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

That's a fallacy...

Emigration and jobsbridge have had a negligible impact on the Unemployment figures

Emigration details for 2014 here , less than 20% of those emigrating were unemployed.

It's definitely a problem no question, particularly with the number of graduates/highly skilled workers leaving , but it's got nothing to do with any reductions in the Unemployment rates

Jobsbridge is tiny numbers overall , insignificant in the overall scheme of things

If 80% of those emigrating left jobs that had to be filled! it may have had something to do with the unemployment rates.

if the government falls, then what??

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