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Scottish Independence yea or nay

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  • 06-08-2014 6:10am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 2,827 ✭✭✭


    What do you THINK(not want) will be the % in the Scottish referendum 6 or so weeks away.

    I was going to do a poll but it looks like you cant in this forum.

    yes 60+
    yes 57-60%
    yes 54-56%
    yes 52-53%
    yes 50-51%

    no 60+
    no-57-60%
    no 54-56%
    no 52-53%
    no 50-51%


    also what do you think will the turn out be.

    my predictions is 54-56 no , however i hope im wrong with a turnout of 75%+

    thoughts.


«13456755

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭comongethappy


    No - 58%
    Yes 42%


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,393 ✭✭✭DarkyHughes


    Well if I'm against the break up of Ireland I wouldn't be for the break up of Britain.

    I think it will go 55 no 45 yes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,518 ✭✭✭OS119


    i'm betting on a surprise 'yes' scraping win on a low, -50%, turnout.

    i'm 'no' personally, but i think the 'no' campaign has been pretty rubbish and that the 'yes' campaign is more likely to get its voters to turn out on the day. i think the negativity of 'no', combined with the several-years-running poll lead of 'no', will mean that lots of 'no' voters will stay at home thinking that everyone else will go out to vote, and the margin means they don't have to.

    so, a 1 or 2% lead for yes on a much lower turnout than is being predicted.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 9,671 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manach


    Result might depend on the amount of airplay "Braveheart" receives.
    Either way reckon there will not be very much between the Ayes/Nays.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,676 ✭✭✭serfboard


    OS119 wrote: »
    i'm betting on a surprise 'yes' scraping win on a low, -50%, turnout.

    i'm 'no' personally, but i think the 'no' campaign has been pretty rubbish and that the 'yes' campaign is more likely to get its voters to turn out on the day. i think the negativity of 'no', combined with the several-years-running poll lead of 'no', will mean that lots of 'no' voters will stay at home thinking that everyone else will go out to vote, and the margin means they don't have to.

    so, a 1 or 2% lead for yes on a much lower turnout than is being predicted.
    That's exactly what I've been thinking lately too - 'no' voters more motivated to turn out.

    Is there a minimum turnout level required?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,518 ✭✭✭OS119


    serfboard wrote: »
    ...Is there a minimum turnout level required?

    nope, just a straight majority of votes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,080 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    It will be a definite 'No' vote.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,995 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    I will be voting Yes and the No side will win. 90 minute patriots is a very apt description


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,995 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Well if I'm against the break up of Ireland I wouldn't be for the break up of Britain.
    .

    You mean the break up of the UK? You prefer Ireland united in the UK then?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,046 ✭✭✭Berserker


    On voting day, common sense will prevail and it'll be an easy no. The 'Yes' side will get no more than 40% of the vote.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,482 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    You mean the break up of the UK? You prefer Ireland united in the UK then?

    Probably more realistic than any other plan for a united Ireland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    Sand wrote: »
    Probably more realistic than any other plan for a united Ireland.
    I hate to admit it as a republican, but we're now an independent country. I would not be against joining a true economic partnership with the UK. I'm not saying I'd join the UK necessarily though.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,046 ✭✭✭Berserker


    I hate to admit it as a republican, but we're now an independent country. I would not be against joining a true economic partnership with the UK. I'm not saying I'd join the UK necessarily though.

    A refreshing piece of realism from a republican. I too can see us going into economic partnership with the UK within the next decade or so. We are massively reliant on each other trade wise as is and that relationship is only going to get stronger as time progresses. Scotland, as part of the UK, will be a very important part of that partnership. I think the idea of independence will be put to bed for a few generations after the vote in September.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    Berserker wrote: »
    A refreshing piece of realism from a republican. I too can see us going into economic partnership with the UK within the next decade or so. We are massively reliant on each other trade wise as is and that relationship is only going to get stronger as time progresses. Scotland, as part of the UK, will be a very important part of that partnership. I think the idea of independence will be put to bed for a few generations after the vote in September.
    In many ways (without getting into a discussion on the North) I see Irish Republicanism as having been a major success. We were successful in gaining our independence and I would not suggest for a second giving that up. I just see that we now have a choice as to whether to take our success and act like a real, grown up country - making decisions that benefit this nation rather than cutting our nose off to spite our face.

    We need to be prepared to react to Scotland leaving the UK and/or the UK leaving the EU; we need to know exactly what we, as a nation, will do in those circumstances. It's not enough to do the usual wait and see.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,046 ✭✭✭Berserker


    We need to be prepared to react to Scotland leaving the UK and/or the UK leaving the EU; we need to know exactly what we, as a nation, will do in those circumstances. It's not enough to do the usual wait and see.

    I totally agree. In all honesty, I think that the possibility of the UK voting to leave the EU is far more likely than Scotland leaving the UK. In that event, we would need to be prepared to move into an economic partnership with the UK. I am not convinced that we have that level of foresight in our administrative ranks, those in power or opposition, at the moment.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,336 ✭✭✭Mr.Micro


    The no vote will win, IMO. What's independence to economic security? The Scots will put their pound before the notion of governing themselves, simple as. The economy is all that matters to most people. Cameron et al have frightened most people away from independence. Any transition can be painful and the voters will not be prepared to risk it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,219 ✭✭✭tipptom


    I think it will be a NO without a doubt and there will be a massive spike of scare stories by the no side(like the armegeddon promised in the EU fiscal treaty here) in the last few days that will seal the deal on the swingers.
    Think the 5/1 odds being given is terrible odds considering you would have to put €800 to win €100 for a no vote.


    The Scots should use the referendum to get as much for Scotland as they can before the poll reveals how much the Scots really want to remain within.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,995 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    There has already been massive scare stories from the no side. It is laughable how they are being swallowed by folk who are otherwise seem sensible


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,148 ✭✭✭✭Lemming


    There has already been massive scare stories from the no side. It is laughable how they are being swallowed by folk who are otherwise seem sensible

    You mean about pandas and alien invasions?

    Out of interest, what are considered to be these massive scare stories?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭comongethappy


    Lemming wrote: »
    You mean about pandas and alien invasions?

    Out of interest, what are considered to be these massive scare stories?

    Things along the lines of the BBC disappearing (as if by forcefield at the border)
    Peoples savings or pensions in UK banks disappearing.
    Having to revert to barter as a mechanism of commerce....

    And so forth.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,964 ✭✭✭For Reals


    Berserker wrote: »
    A refreshing piece of realism from a republican. I too can see us going into economic partnership with the UK within the next decade or so...

    We are and have been, what's the need of a rubber stamp with Germany's Liz on it? Same goes for the commonwealth nonsense. Join a hangover from a genocidal war mongering, gave us the concentration camp, empire for a non too noticable set of games......no ta.

    I think it'll be a 'No'. My Glaswegian pal reckons London is worried about losing North Sea oil revenue. The Scots will be hard pushed to get the Eaton sets grubby paws off anything of worth should it be a 'Yes'.
    There is a chance though, but it will certainly be close. I wish them all the best.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,995 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Lemming wrote: »
    You mean about pandas and alien invasions?

    Out of interest, what are considered to be these massive scare stories?

    Uncle Fred won't be able to visit his niece in England as he would need a passport and he does not have one

    Checkpoints and border controls on the M74/M6

    Scotland is too small to be independent

    The RBS crash would have bankrupted Scotland

    Natural resources will have no affect on an independent Scotland

    An independent Scotland would be cataclysmic for the west and threaten global stability

    The start up costs of an independent Scotland would sink the economy

    Scotland cannot keep using the pound if they are independent

    People would have to drive on the other side of the road

    etc etc

    http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2013/03/19/top-10-unionist-myths-debunked-banned-then-re-debunked/


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,194 ✭✭✭Onthe3rdDay


    I think there's a chance that the yes side will win as any those that want independence are more likely to go out and vote. However if Normal voting turnout happens it would be a win for the No side, probably 58 no/ 42 yes.

    I have enjoyed the debate from a distance, probably because of the nutty claims made by both sides. According to some on the NO side, Those in the republic would have more rights in the new Little Britain than the Scots!


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,148 ✭✭✭✭Lemming


    I'm a bit bemused by some of the arguments being treated seriously as scaremongering by the Yes side. There's a couple of bonafide home truths that have been raised in the list below, and again I find it a bit dishonest that a genuine concern is being peddled as scare mongering all because it's "killing Salmond's buzz".

    Anyway ... I'll address the serious points; anything not addressed is just bullsh*t to be ignored as idiocy being taken seriously by idiots.

    Things along the lines of the BBC disappearing (as if by forcefield at the border)
    Peoples savings or pensions in UK banks disappearing.
    Having to revert to barter as a mechanism of commerce....

    The BBC, being the UK state, and state-funded broadcaster would have to relocate any tangible amounts of staff and equipment out of Scotland that are based there, other than "foreign correspondants" or the like. But broadcasting could still be received because .. well ... not to put too fine a point on it, it's a bit difficult to stop radio-waves without actively jamming them. Whether or not broadcast signals would be well received the further north one would travel is a technical matter, if the BBC no longer cater to the Scottish region. All of the above is common sense and stating the obvious.

    The pensions pot is a real concern however, and would be down to details on what would be negotiated out of any ceding from the union. But generally speaking, the pension fund is funded greatly by today's workers and as has been pointed out, Scotland has a higher than average older demographic than the rest of the UK which means less younger workers covering a larger older population. Again, that isn't scare mongering; it's common sense to point that out.

    People's savings is a matter for bank negotiation, but I would imagine that only deposits above a certain size would be at risk, like what was done for banks during the crisis of guaruanteeing any deposits below £100,000 or whatever it was. Neither side can really comment other than to state that it's an unknown.


    Out of curiosity? Who mentioned the barter thing and more importantly, in what context was it said? Because that one is up there with Pandas and Alien invasions in how not to be taken seriously.

    Uncle Fred won't be able to visit his niece in England as he would need a passport and he does not have one

    Checkpoints and border controls on the M74/M6

    Short of a dire collapse in economic negotiations, Scotland is looking at a common travel area agreement like what Ireland has. But I would expect to see import/export restrictions around the movement of certain types of goods; i.e. explosives, animal types.

    I would also expect to see tighter ITAR restrictions applied to the Scottish state security apparatus when trying to acquire any shiny new military hardware from North America with Scotland not being a member of NATO.
    Scotland is too small to be independent

    The RBS crash would have bankrupted Scotland

    Natural resources will have no affect on an independent Scotland

    RBS dragging Scotland down? Not so implausible at all given what happened to both Iceland & Ireland. But academic because RBS was saved by the UK (including Scotland).

    As for natural resources; hard one to call really and all depends on what happens with regards the oil companies as most of them would not be headquartered in Scotland, meaning the rump of profits go elsewhere unless Salmond is planning to do an Argentina move and seize company hardware and oil in storage. Scotland would still benefit, just not in the manner or extent that Norway benefits (with its nationalised ownership) as Salmond talked up at the last debate.
    An independent Scotland would be cataclysmic for the west and threaten global stability

    The start up costs of an independent Scotland would sink the economy

    Scotland cannot keep using the pound if they are independent

    People would have to drive on the other side of the road

    etc etc

    The pound ... Scotland could keep using the pound, the point being that they would have no control over it; much like all those Latin American countries using the US dollar.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,995 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    See above


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,148 ✭✭✭✭Lemming



    I'm pretty sure that there's a rule against comment-by-video-link on this forum.

    So care to actually comment instead being lazy?


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,995 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Lazy? you should come to Scotland to listen to the BT campaign for the text book definition of lazy


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,148 ✭✭✭✭Lemming


    Lazy? you should come to Scotland to listen to the BT campaign for the text book definition of lazy

    I've been hearing it all for years Dub; some of my immediate family and most of my relations live in Scotland, but thanks for the arrogant condescension.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,046 ✭✭✭Berserker


    The RBS crash would have bankrupted Scotland

    A rogue bank bringing a country to its knee! What a ludicrous suggestion by the 'No' side. Oh wait ...........


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,393 ✭✭✭DarkyHughes


    You mean the break up of the UK? You prefer Ireland united in the UK then?

    No, I believe Ireland the island should be one country & Britain the island should be one countrie.

    But if the people of Ireland voted to rejoin the UK I'd support that ( the Tories should suit us were such a conservative country) right, but they voted for complete independence & had their government overthrown by a Free State military coup.


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