Call It

nhughes100 · 11-06-2008 4:49pm #1

I'm voting no but fully expect the yes vote to win. I think around 55%-45%.

Hermy · 11-06-2008 4:55pm

I expect that it will be close but predict a win for the No side.

mcaul · 11-06-2008 4:56pm

A bit closer

54% yes , 46% no

Turnout of just over 50%.

DeVore · 11-06-2008 4:57pm

"No" by about 4%.

DeV.

humanji · 11-06-2008 5:01pm

I'd say no by about 15%. I don't want that result, but I have a strong feeling that the large amount of people voting no because they don't understand, will win it for the no's.

sink · 11-06-2008 5:04pm

I think it's too close to call. The main people that will affect the outcome are those voting no because they don't understand. I would say these voters are soft no voters and are unlikely to bother turning out if it's no convienient or if the weather is poor. The yes side are more motivated than ever because this time they really do fear the treaty not passing.

Rb · 11-06-2008 5:06pm

No by 8-12%

Call Me Jimmy · 11-06-2008 5:06pm

I'de say No will win it by about 5-10 %. It's just too nice and easy to vote No.

Saruman · 11-06-2008 5:07pm

Hopefully it will be a yes vote. Lets hope its pissing rain to keep the negative no people who do not know what they are voting on at home in front of the TV

zig · 11-06-2008 5:13pm

very very close Id say, 51% no, 49% yes, if its sunny! If its raining , probably about 52% yes, 48% no, cmon the rain!!!!!

THe one big thing the yes voters have going for them is that theyll be alot more motivated to go out and vote than many no voters will. I reckon about 30% of the no voters in the polls were people that didnt know or care about it and will probably be less inclined to vote.

ShooterSF · 11-06-2008 5:15pm

Saruman wrote: »

Hopefully it will be a yes vote. Lets hope its pissing rain to keep the negative no people who do not know what they are voting on at home in front of the TV

A no win hopefully so, so that when i get back from voting i can sit out and soke up some rays

Though realistically I don't trust my fellow country folk anymore so probably a yes.

Hermy · 11-06-2008 5:15pm

Saruman wrote: »

Hopefully it will be a yes vote. Lets hope its pissing rain to keep the negative no people who do not know what they are voting on at home in front of the TV

According to Met Eireann:

A bright day on Thursday, with sunny spells and just a few showers. Highest temperatures of 14 C to 18 C, with a moderate to fresh northerly breeze.

Roll on the negative no people.:pac:

IRLConor · 11-06-2008 5:17pm

I'd say it'll be No by 2-5% regardless of weather. I expect to be very disappointed tomorrow.

Rb · 11-06-2008 5:20pm

I have to say I've got good confidence in a No vote, and should it be realised, I cannot wait to see the reaction from those f*ckers who were threatening us even up until yesterday.

gandalf · 11-06-2008 5:21pm

As I didn't sort my vote in time I won't be voting. I am expecting the Yes vote to win by a small margin.

Rb · 11-06-2008 5:22pm

ShooterSF wrote: »

Though realistically I don't trust my fellow country folk anymore so probably a yes.

I lost my trust in the voters in this country at the last general election tbh.

zig · 11-06-2008 5:22pm

Rb wrote: »

I have to say I've got good confidence in a No vote, and should it be realised, I cannot wait to see the reaction from those f*ckers who were threatening us even up until yesterday.

Ive heard more threats from the no campaign at this stage tbh

Rb · 11-06-2008 5:23pm

zig wrote: »

Ive heard more threats from the no campaign at this stage tbh

Random Joe campaigners < The President of Europe, heads of France and Germany in terms of the weight their threats hold.

Hitman Actual · 11-06-2008 5:29pm

IRLConor wrote: »

I'd say it'll be No by 2-5% regardless of weather. I expect to be very disappointed tomorrow.

Same as, 2-5% for No. The Yes side left it too late to get in the game. If it doesn't pass, then they (FF/FG/Lab) have gotten no more than they deserve.

cornbb · 11-06-2008 5:29pm

It will be extraordinarily close with a very high turnout I think. I'd like to think the Yes side will win by a whisker. I get the impression a lot of No voters may still be somewhat doubtful whereas a lot of Yes voters seem to be more convinced of their cause. Just my opinion though, it could easily go either way.

I also predict a few dozen spoiled votes for Atari Jaguar :pac:

Jack Sheehan · 11-06-2008 5:31pm

This one to go to the judges I'd say, difficult to call either way. I hope Yes. I had a look at the website today and it isn't nearly as scary as it's made out to be.

Zube · 11-06-2008 5:34pm

No by 53-47, turnout 38%.

Unfortunately.

BlitzKrieg · 11-06-2008 5:38pm

I also predict a few dozen spoiled votes for Atari Jaguar

that would be awesome.

Rb · 11-06-2008 5:42pm

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

that would be awesome.

Agreed. Would love to see something mentioned in the news about people voting Atari Jaguar.

Unfortunately I won't be doing so myself though

Rhonda9000 · 11-06-2008 5:49pm

I am voting yes tomorrow but I truly believe the no side will win the day.

The reason I think this is because there are oceans of begrudging whingers out there with a sense of entitlement and who baulk at the prospect of relinquishing a little piece of power to accomodate the many new people coming to the EU table.

zig · 11-06-2008 5:51pm

Rhonda9000 wrote: »

The reason I think this is because there are oceans of begrudging whingers out there with a sense of entitlement and who baulk at the prospect of relinquishing a little piece of power to accomodate the many new people coming to the EU table.

well said, couldnt have put it even close to that myself

humanji · 11-06-2008 5:55pm

Hermy wrote: »

According to Met Eireann:

A bright day on Thursday, with sunny spells and just a few showers. Highest temperatures of 14 C to 18 C, with a moderate to fresh northerly breeze.

Roll on the negative no people.:pac:

I knew I shouldn't of stopped working on that weather machine :mad:

ircoha · 11-06-2008 6:10pm

Rhonda9000 wrote: »

I am voting yes tomorrow but I truly believe the no side will win the day.

The reason I think this is because there are oceans of begrudging whingers out there with a sense of entitlement and who baulk at the prospect of relinquishing a little piece of power to accomodate the many new people coming to the EU table.

I dont think so on either count.

On your second point:

We were one of the few countries

to accomodate the many new people coming to the EU table

from date of entry.

All you need to look at is our schools/hospitals/building sites/hospitality sector etc to see the impact they are having.

You also just look at the millions of euros paid out in Child benefit to non-resident children of resident parents.

You then look at the way Bernard McNamara has abandoned the people in the 5 social housing contracts because the profit margins were not enough.

You then look at Niall Mellon getting 5 mill euro from Bertie et al to build houses in SA.
Mellon then contributes 25k to FF.

You then look at the patronizing attitudes of Biffo et al: we know and the rest of the political elite know best.

You then look at the state of the national schools, particularly in places like Ballymun and the way the new Mi(ni)ster Ed has told them the spending is over.

In conclusion, I dont thing the no vote has a lot to do with the new constitution but more to do with 'unknown unknowns' in the face of a pretty bleak economic climate

In closing could not resist this::) Keep well. ps yes to win by the divorce ref margin: see below

Well since she put me down Ive been out doin in my head
Come in late at night and in the mornin I just lay in bed

Well, rhonda you look so fine (look so fine)
And I know it wouldnt take much time
For you to help me rhonda
Help me get her out of my heart

.................Yes Votes...No Votes.....Total Valid Poll....% Yes....% No...................Margin
National......818,837.......809,739.....1,628,576...........50.28%....49.72%..............9,098

Daftendirekt · 11-06-2008 6:11pm

It's hard to say, last week I would've predicted a No win, but now I'm not so sure... I think there'll be less than 10% in the difference either way, possibly with a 55% turnout.

amacachi · 11-06-2008 6:20pm

I'm voting yes, but I have that same feeling I had before the last US presidential election.

Rhonda9000 · 11-06-2008 6:29pm

ircoha wrote: »

On your second point:

We were one of the few countries [to accomodate new Europeans] from date of entry.

All you need to look at is our schools/hospitals/building sites/hospitality sector etc to see the impact they are having.

You also just look at the millions of euros paid out in Child benefit to non-resident children of resident parents.

The government might be happy to make provision in the welfare systems and so on, but I assure you there are droves of unfortunately elligible voters that say things within their big gangs like "they're taking all our jobs", "those people are getting cars and houses from the Health Board" and -my favourite- "it's a disgrace". They'll be out tomorrow doing their bit

P.S. They liked "the divorce" better because "[they] can get de maintenance now as well as de social" ... in lay mans terms it meant getting a new right (or feckless freedom as far as the highly strung Catholic adversaries were concerned) as opposed to taking one away.

The_Minister · 11-06-2008 7:34pm

Yes by a whisker. But maybe as low as a percent.

Breezer · 11-06-2008 7:38pm

Unfortunately No by a small margin, but I pray I'm wrong. Hopefully the rain'll get worse between now and 10pm tomorrow.

zuroph · 11-06-2008 7:51pm

yes to win. by 8%. low turn out. the no if you dont know brigade are too lazy to read a booklet that was pushed through their letterbox, thus too lazy to; Get up off the seat, check all windows are closed, set alarm, Go outside, lock door, walk to car, turn the car on, drive in traffic to the polls, park, go inside, identify, show id, go to booth, pick up pen, x the no box, come back out, find car, turn it on, drive home in traffic, park, and go back inside to sit down.

Especially since Dr phil is on.

Kavinsky · 11-06-2008 7:55pm

Saruman wrote: »

Hopefully it will be a yes vote. Lets hope its pissing rain to keep the negative no people who do not know what they are voting on at home in front of the TV

So basically anyone voting "No" hasn't a clue what the treaty is all about?

Breezer · 11-06-2008 7:59pm

Kavinsky wrote: »

So basically anyone voting "No" hasn't a clue what the treaty is all about?

No, not everyone, but according to the latest tns/mrbi poll "I don't understand" was the most popular reason given for intending to vote No. The problem is that a large number of people think voting No means no change.

Rb · 11-06-2008 7:59pm

Kavinsky wrote: »

So basically anyone voting "No" hasn't a clue what the treaty is all about?

Are you surprised? I've found this condescending attitude to be typical of those on the "yes" side hence why I'm looking forward to it being over and done with.

sink · 11-06-2008 8:04pm

Rb wrote: »

Are you surprised? I've found this condescending attitude to be typical of those on the "yes" side hence why I'm looking forward to it being over and done with.

It's not condescending towards all no voter imo. There are plenty of no voters you are informed and are voting no for legitimate reasons. However the Sunday Business Post showed 30% of nno voters are voting no because they don't know what's in the treaty. They all got loads of leaflets and it's been all over tv, radio and newspapers. Basically they are just neglectful if they know nothing.

Agent Smith · 11-06-2008 8:06pm

yes by a wisker of a wisker

could even be closer then the divorce referendum (50.3%)

Saruman · 11-06-2008 8:11pm

Kavinsky wrote: »

So basically anyone voting "No" hasn't a clue what the treaty is all about?

:rolleyes: You read way too much into things it seems. Im sure plenty of No voters have a valid reason for voting no but a LOT of them are voting no because they have no idea what the treaty is about so they are voting no, maybe to be on the safe side or maybe to stick it to the man. In fairness, the government did not put enough money into telling people what its all about

Libertas seems to have unlimited funds though and caught the government with their pants down.

mcaul · 11-06-2008 8:22pm

Rhonda9000 wrote: »

The government might be happy to make provision in the welfare systems and so on, but I assure you there are droves of unfortunately elligible voters that say things within their big gangs like "they're taking all our jobs", "those people are getting cars and houses from the Health Board" and -my favourite- "it's a disgrace". They'll be out tomorrow doing their bit P .

And these are the same people who go over to London / New York / Paris / Munich / Sydney etc etc to visit their brother / sister / aunt / unlce / friend etc who just happens to be living there, getting social welfare / jobs in the relevant countries!!!! - There are estimated to be 1.8 Million Irish BORN people who currently live & work abroad! Until we have over 1.8 million other nationalities besides Irish in Ireland, then and only then do we have an iota of a right to make any complaint.

At least I've convinced 2 guys working for me not to vote rather than vote No.

Rhonda9000 · 11-06-2008 8:47pm

mcaul wrote: »

And these are the same people who go over to London / New York / Paris / Munich / Sydney etc etc to visit their brother / sister / aunt / unlce / friend etc who just happens to be living there, getting social welfare / jobs in the relevant countries!!!! - There are estimated to be 1.8 Million Irish BORN people who currently live & work abroad! Until we have over 1.8 million other nationalities besides Irish in Ireland, then and only then do we have an iota of a right to make any complaint.

At least I've convinced 2 guys working for me not to vote rather than vote No.

Thats the style! An uninformed voter is a negligent voter. When in doubt, spoil your vote IMHO. Keep up the good work!

ircoha · 11-06-2008 9:21pm

mcaul wrote: »

And these are the same people who go over to London / New York / Paris / Munich / Sydney etc etc to visit their brother / sister / aunt / unlce / friend etc who just happens to be living there, getting social welfare / jobs in the relevant countries!!!! - There are estimated to be 1.8 Million Irish BORN people who currently live & work abroad! Until we have over 1.8 million other nationalities besides Irish in Ireland, then and only then do we have an iota of a right to make any complaint.

At least I've convinced 2 guys working for me not to vote rather than vote No.

1.8/6000 = 0.03% so insignificant

1.8/5 = 36% so just look to cities like Liverpool/Birmingham etc for what will happen long before we get to 36%.

Neamhshuntasach · 11-06-2008 9:22pm

I'm hoping for a no vote to win but i have this feeling that yes will marginally win in a very low turnout of voters. I think the undecided's will be a huge factor in the outcome. Many will come home from work and get comfortable and will not bother going out to vote because they never really cared too much in the first place.

The scare tatics by the Government and EU officials this week have been unbelieavable and might just have scared a lot of people on the fence into a yes vote.

democrates · 11-06-2008 9:43pm

<50% turnout and Yes by >5%

I'm voting no, but I think there is truth in the points that many polling as no won't be motivated enough to vote, in the polls the ratio for those definitely intending to vote favoured Yes.

The yes side are very motivated, and for some it's down to self image - "I'm not anti-establishment because such types are losers and cranks".

toiletduck · 11-06-2008 9:44pm

Yes by at least 10%.

sdanseo · 11-06-2008 9:47pm

No might just clinch it I think. If it's yes its because, (AND ONLY because) people bottle it at the last minute.

mcaul · 11-06-2008 10:09pm

ircoha wrote: »

1.8/6000 = 0.03% so insignificant

1.8/5 = 36% so just look to cities like Liverpool/Birmingham etc for what will happen long before we get to 36%.

?? - I know this is off topic, but the UK's massive diverse population is due to its colonisation of countries worldwide, and this gave those people the born right to live & work in the UK as UK citizens.

aonoco · 11-06-2008 10:15pm

Think No will get it but by less than 2%.
Not sure why some people on this posting stating that No will win based on peoples ignorance. The Taoiseah of this country had not even read the document and he feels he has the right to tells us how to vote. People do not understand on either side, if in doubt kick it out and lets get a treaty that everyone can understand and you do not need to have a law degree to determine how this will change your life.

zig · 11-06-2008 10:46pm

aonoco wrote: »

Think No will get it but by less than 2%.
Not sure why some people on this posting stating that No will win based on peoples ignorance. The Taoiseah of this country had not even read the document and he feels he has the right to tells us how to vote. People do not understand on either side, if in doubt kick it out and lets get a treaty that everyone can understand and you do not need to have a law degree to determine how this will change your life.

have you tried to read it?

About Brian cowen, he helped negotiate it, im sure he knows more about it than you think, he read it, just not cover to cover

is_that_so · 11-06-2008 10:49pm

I believe that it will be Yes by a very small margin,although the truly awful campaign to inform the population by the Yes side has done no-one any favours at all.

Call It

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