Winter 2011/2012

Strangegravy wrote: »

Where do you find these?

Here's something mad to keep those who have lost hope just clinging in there. For now just ignore all the scientific based predictions and negative/positive NAO and concentrate on the outside chance.

January, 1947: Unsettled;large temperature variations;snow and intense frost late in month
The month was noteworthy for the frequency of gales from the 1st to the 17th, a very mild spell at the beginning of the 3rd week, followed by a severe wintry spell when some very low temperatures were recorded.
On the 17th, an anticyclone to the south-west of the British Isles developed, drifted slowly east and then north. From the 20th until the end of the month pressure remained highest to the north and north-east and there was a gradual change, first felt in east and south-east and south-east England, and later over the whole country, to unsettled weather with frost and snow and easterly winds. Continuous frost set in over south-east England on the 23rd, over Wales and western England on the 28th, and over Scotland on the 29th. Depressions and their associated troughs to the south of the British Isles from the 25th onwards brought snow at first to south-east and east England, and later everywhere.

derekon wrote: »

- however don't write off winter just yet, I think it will have a nasty sting in its tail! :D

D

I have to agree with you there. I'm usually right - thats why I'm so irritating.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=75639846

I'd love to be proved wrong and see a 1947 in mid Jan but I think its out of the question this winter. This post and the one after it explain why I think its extremely unlikely.:(
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=76052897

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I'd love to be proved wrong and see a 1947 in mid Jan but I think its out of the question this winter. This post and the one after it explain why I think its extremely unlikely.:(
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=76052897

That is fair enough, however please bear in mind what MT Cranium said on the 17/12/2011

MT Cranium Post the 17th December 2011

It only takes a week to ten days for the Atlantic-dominated regime to fade out, blocking can develop that fast. Obviously what is needed is a stratwarm event to change the current circumpolar vortex that has given near-record values for the arctic oscillation. However those records were set in Dec 1990 which was a winter dominated by cold after about 10 January.

I'm expecting a similar reversal this winter and it won't likely show up even in the further reaches of the model runs until late this month. The mild before Christmas was expected and a more variable trend will probably develop again after about the 27th. Cold may not win out for two or three weeks beyond that.

Some encouraging signs are noted this week for later in the winter. Blocking is increasing in eastern Siberia. Model runs continue to flirt with high pressure at higher latitudes in western Europe. These are tentative signs in the right direction. Would not expect any sudden or dramatic shifts but gradual progress. This is rather conservative but I expect at least one of the two months Jan-Feb to be colder than normal, more likely January but would give a 65% probability that one of the two will be below and 30% that both would be below.

Anyway, in some ways it's good to have a mild regime over the holiday period, people can get around and business does well. And it's still Christmas regardless.

Certainly agree it's far too early to "call" winter at this poin

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Ah but 1947 was different Derek, it not only snowed until mid March in Ireland and the UK ...a fine powdery drifting snow....but the last of that snow, in sheltered north facing areas, did not melt until June. I remember being told the last snowmen finally melted in early May.

Ah you are killing me Sponge Bob!

Now I am really getting my hopes up! Had a quick look at the GFS model and its predicting a nice plunge of cold from mid January, as MT predicted way back. Things are looking better than they did this time last week, however its all in FI of course, so could change on the next run :mad:

D

redsunset wrote: »

Here's one for ya Derek
http://www.dandantheweatherman.com/Bereklauw/latesnow.html

Thanks Redsunset - maybe there is some hope of sea level snowfall across eastern Ireland so, given its only the 1st January

D

A change not too far away? Or a false hope?

Not that this leads to much but we are seeing some real amplication and attempted raising of heights over Greenland.

It is of interest for sure.

Wild Bill wrote: »

Indeed I well remember the Winter of 89/90.

It snowed (here in Dub) on the 8th December; the 8th of January and on the 8th February.

Trust me; I have a memory long as the Mississippi and sharper than a serpants tooth.....:cool:

As ever Wild Bill, love the historical inputs. I would have been around 10 years old in December '89 so only have a vague recollection, I appreciate your input.....:)

Weathercheck, good post - I think you are only highlighting what the models are now hinting, i.e. a possible very cold spell for Ireland and Britain come mid January. At least the models are now showing something to get excited about.....:D

D