Official Free Money Betting Superthread 2011/12

monaghanman10 · 08-09-2011 6:19pm

gone with dagg @13/2 and SBW @11/1 for first tryscorer tomorrow,10r on each

thomond2006 · 08-09-2011 7:37pm

The spread is France -45 on PP at the moment. I really fancy them to cover that (provided they turn up!

)

cup of tea · 08-09-2011 7:41pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

The spread is France -45 on PP at the moment. I really fancy them to cover that (provided they turn up! )

-44 bet365

08-09-2011 7:49pm

the bet of the weekend is Romania to keep Scotland to below the HC imo

Juwwi · 08-09-2011 7:51pm

All the handicaps seem to bet getting lower.

Tonga were +70 Japan +52 at there highest.

I put €100 on Tonga +65 with Boyles at 10/11 yesterday

and am going to put €100 on NZ -59 with PP 1/1.

Heres hoping I hit the jackpot

duckysauce · 08-09-2011 8:15pm

it will be a draw

wixfjord · 08-09-2011 8:19pm

Finally got around to placing my outright bets.

Gone for
3pts Aus to win outright
2 points e/w on Digby Ioane Top Tryscorer
1 point e/w on France to win outright

TheMilkyPirate · 08-09-2011 9:27pm

France are even money to reach the semi finals. What do you all think i think it's a great price.

If they top their group they play argentina in the quarters more than likely.

If they finish second which is the more likely they face england who they are more than capable of beating.

EDIT: Just seen their 6/4 to be top 6 nations team.

Podge_irl · 08-09-2011 9:29pm

baraca wrote: »

France are even money to reach the semi finals. What do you all think i think it's a great price.

If they top their group they play argentina in the quarters more than likely.

If they finish second which is the more likely they face england who they are more than capable of beating.

EDIT: Just seen their 6/4 to be top 6 nations team.

More then capable of beating them indeed, but I wouldn't expect them to.

PhatPiggins · 08-09-2011 9:33pm

baraca wrote: »

France are even money to reach the semi finals. What do you all think i think it's a great price.

If they top their group they play argentina in the quarters more than likely.

If they finish second which is the more likely they face england who they are more than capable of beating.

EDIT: Just seen their 6/4 to be top 6 nations team.

France are more then capable of beating anyone but they've played England in 4 WC's and lost them all. No one does a mental blockage like the French do against the English, except maybe Ireland against France (how ironic).

PhatPiggins · 08-09-2011 9:43pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

The spread is France -45 on PP at the moment. I really fancy them to cover that (provided they turn up! )

Japan can't compete with the French forwards so they're going to have to play fast and lose which will suit the French just fine. I can see France running up a monster scrore in this one.

Judgement Day · 08-09-2011 10:05pm

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Japan can't compete with the French forwards so they're going to have to play fast and lose which will suit the French just fine. I can see France running up a monster scrore in this one.

I'll find out where you live if you given me a bum steer on this one.

PhatPiggins · 08-09-2011 10:09pm

Judgement Day wrote: »

I'll find out where you live if you given me a bum steer on this one.

I'm standing behind you
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Ha ha, made you look

Judgement Day · 08-09-2011 11:23pm

http://www.tourism.net.nz/listings/nztg/visitor-information/117380?from=http://www.tourism.net.nz/region/auckland/visitor-information/web-cams/other-listings/

Auckland from a live webcam a few minutes ago. Weather looks smashing for a try fest.

NZ by more than 28 points at half time @ 10/11
More than 36.5 points in the 1st half @ 5/6

antogz1979 · 09-09-2011 8:52am

I hope it won't come back to bite me, but NZ try first scoring play today is 8/11. I taught it would be more 1/2, 2/5. I can't see any other outcome. The only worry is that they would go for 3 points if they got a close in penalty. I can't see them going for the post, i'd say they will run everything.
One more, first try in the match to be scored by a forward 5/2 with PP.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 09-09-2011 9:37am

antogz1979 wrote: »

I hope it won't come back to bite me, but NZ try first scoring play today is 8/11. I taught it would be more 1/2, 2/5. I can't see any other outcome. The only worry is that they would go for 3 points if they got a close in penalty. I can't see them going for the post, i'd say they will run everything.
One more, first try in the match to be scored by a forward 5/2 with PP.

you lost the try scoring bet

thomond2006 · 09-09-2011 9:45am

monaghanman10 wrote: »

gone with dagg @13/2 and SBW @11/1 for first tryscorer tomorrow,10r on each

Well done!

monaghanman10 · 09-09-2011 9:46am

cheers checked my slip there and it was actually 15/2 so happy days.now for new zealand to win by 60 and it will be a successful start

CIARAN_BOYLE · 09-09-2011 11:04am

Anyone who has bet on NZ to to cover the spread is going too suffer. I can't see NZ scoring another 30 minutes in 10 minutes

09-09-2011 11:10am

And our strategy of backing the minnow in the big spread games has a 100% strike rate.

Pity I didn't believe it myself

monaghanman10 · 09-09-2011 11:11am

william hill had tonga plus 347 at 2/1 a minute ago.tried to get money on but it was taken down

Judgement Day · 09-09-2011 1:05pm

Judgement Day wrote: »

Auckland from a live webcam a few minutes ago. Weather looks smashing for a try fest.

NZ by more than 28 points at half time @ 10/11
More than 36.5 points in the 1st half @ 5/6

Well, I nearly got away with a break even situation but for the last minute penalty by Kurt Morath - (29-0 at 40 minutes) - now I know why I don't bother doing the lottery. :rolleyes:

SteelyDanJalapeno · 09-09-2011 3:48pm

monaghanman10 wrote: »

william hill had tonga plus 347 at 2/1 a minute ago.tried to get money on but it was taken down

347?

Juwwi · 09-09-2011 4:47pm

France are now -41 1/1 with ladbrokes.

Despite the general feeling when the teams were announced that -47 was a great bet the handicap is lowering.

profitius · 09-09-2011 5:07pm

TiltedBrain wrote: »

347?

Its known in the betting industry as a mistake.

TheJackAttack · 09-09-2011 5:22pm

I think betting with underdog against the handicap is great value.. Covered a few bets with it this weekend

GerM · 09-09-2011 5:49pm

Think the Italy handicap is generous. One thing the Italians don't do it roll over. 30 points is a big number given Australia struggle with goal kicking.

jayteecork · 09-09-2011 6:13pm

Guys Argentina 4/1 to beat England on Boyle.

Is it just me or is that extremely generous?

A 2 horse race, Argentina play out of their skins in the WC and will be well up for it cause it's England, AND it's on neutral soil.

Looks amazing odds to me.

PhatPiggins · 09-09-2011 6:21pm

jayteecork wrote: »

Guys Argentina 4/1 to beat England on Boyle.

Is it just me or is that extremely generous?

A 2 horse race, Argentina play out of their skins in the WC and will be well up for it cause it's England, AND it's on neutral soil.

Looks amazing odds to me.

You can get a far better price then 4/1 if you shop around. I don't think they've any chance myself.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 09-09-2011 6:25pm

I thought it was very funny to notice in paddy power that Trimble is their second favorite to be Ireland's first try scorer despite being on the bench

Yardie · 09-09-2011 6:27pm

A couple of bets worth serious consideration in England game

Under 3.5 tries @ 11/8 on Sporting Bet and a yellow card in the match @ 8/13 on William Hill

jayteecork · 09-09-2011 6:29pm

PhatPiggins wrote: »

You can get a far better price then 4/1 if you shop around. I don't think they've any chance myself.

You're right. Sporting Bet have them @ 6/1. Don't suppose they accept laser?

LightningBolt · 09-09-2011 6:30pm

USA +17 HT 5/6 Boyles

PhatPiggins · 09-09-2011 7:04pm

jayteecork wrote: »

You're right. Sporting Bet have them @ 6/1. Don't suppose they accept laser?

I've never used them but they're 6/1 with betfair as well and they definitely do accept laser

MungBean · 09-09-2011 7:36pm

Fionn Carr 6/4 to score a try in 80 mins. First home game with Leinster, if he gets some ball he should score.

antogz1979 · 09-09-2011 8:58pm

PhatPiggins wrote: »

I've never used them but they're 6/1 with betfair as well and they definitely do accept laser

13/2 now. thats as far as they will go looking at the liquidity in the market. Lads its a sin to not have a betfair account, if you like the bit of gambling. Nearly always better prices than the bookies, in markets like these.

PhatPiggins · 09-09-2011 9:48pm

antogz1979 wrote: »

13/2 now. thats as far as they will go looking at the liquidity in the market. Lads its a sin to not have a betfair account, if you like the bit of gambling. Nearly always better prices than the bookies, in markets like these.

You'll nearly always get the best price in the outright market but I find their handicaps a bit hit or miss.

Best thing about betfair is you can lay off a bet. A lot of the punters on here will know if they're bets going win/lose/very tight after ten minutes of watching a game and the option to get out has saved me a few sheckles.

Judgement Day · 09-09-2011 10:07pm

Managed to pull back most of my losses on the ABs match tonight and a live 2nd half bet on Leinster was decisive. May get sense and have a break tomorrow but I doubt it.

seanhynes · 09-09-2011 10:12pm

are romania +33 worth the risk tonight? scotland dont put many to the sword usually

09-09-2011 10:15pm

Romania +37 was my bet of the week.

At 33 there's still value to be had though!

seanhynes · 09-09-2011 10:19pm

ya its dropped down,37 seems v.safe,think im goina take the risk on it! will them handicaps be available 4 r 5 mins into the game if it remains 0-0 i wonder

Fizman · 09-09-2011 11:26pm

I really liked the look of France -45 earlier.....it's -41 now. Is there something I'm missing?

Yardie · 09-09-2011 11:36pm

Given that the game is in Invercargill so could really restrict any flowing rugby which will play right into the hands of the Romanians. Romania to win by 1-5 @ 150/1 is defo worth a euro or two just in case! Scots to win by 1-12 pts at 12/1 worth a fiver too

jayteecork · 10-09-2011 12:25am

Yardie wrote: »

Given that the game is in Invercargill so could really restrict any flowing rugby which will play right into the hands of the Romanians. Romania to win by 1-5 @ 150/1 is defo worth a euro or two just in case! Scots to win by 1-12 pts at 12/1 worth a fiver too

where you get that price?

Yardie · 10-09-2011 12:28am

jayteecork wrote: »

where you get that price?

betfred

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/internationals/rugby-world-cup/scotland-v-romania/winning-margin

MungBean · 10-09-2011 12:46am

Romania wont beat Scotland. Romania +33 is a good bet. As is Scotland by 21-30 @ 3/1 I think. Can see the Scots get a couple of tries and few kickable penalties, dont think they have what it takes to do much more.

If the game is more open then I'd imagine Romania might sneak a try and few penalties to keep the margin in check anyway.

johnmcdnl · 10-09-2011 3:37am

Yardie wrote: »

Given that the game is in Invercargill so could really restrict any flowing rugby which will play right into the hands of the Romanians. Romania to win by 1-5 @ 150/1 is defo worth a euro or two just in case! Scots to win by 1-12 pts at 12/1 worth a fiver too

you sir are a genius.. that is all

10-09-2011 3:48am

Deleted User wrote: »

the bet of the weekend is Romania to keep Scotland to below the HC imo

Deleted User wrote: »

And our strategy of backing the minnow in the big spread games has a 100% strike rate.
2/2
Pity I didn't believe it myself

Deleted User wrote: »

Romania +37 was my bet of the week.

At 33 there's still value to be had though!

seanhynes · 10-09-2011 4:01am

+37! ha,and they say the bookies never get it wrong!
im sticking to the minnow plan for the next namibia +30 trebled with france -41 and england to win 7/2

jayteecork · 10-09-2011 4:08am

Nice. Had a quid on Scotland to win 6-10 points and got €26 back.

Also my accums are still on as romania +37 are in most of them.

Official Free Money Betting Superthread 2011/12

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