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Tour de France betting **Please use spoiler tags before midnight**

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    #32
    Darkglasses
    Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 14,526 Mod ✭✭✭✭Darkglasses


    Brian? wrote: »
    The wee man, Arrendondo, was at the front of my mind alright. Do Trek have anything else to ride for?

    Rodriguez is too dangerous on GC to get away in breaks and take points. That seems to be the only way to win the polka for jersey these days. Can't remember the last time someone I the top 10 won it.

    2013, 2nd place Quintana won the polka dots.

    Nairo-QUintana-Mountain-Classification.jpg

    Also 2011, 5th place Samuel Sanchez won the polka dots.


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    #33
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 20,922 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    Darkglasses wrote: »
    2013, 2nd place Quintana won the polka dots.

    Nairo-QUintana-Mountain-Classification.jpg

    Also 2011, 5th place Samuel Sanchez won the polka dots.

    Clearly my memory isn't up to much!

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




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    #34
    Taxuser1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭Taxuser1


    Brian? wrote: »
    Why so?

    With the change in the points system it suits the fast finishers with the sprint trains over the guys who pick up places and intermediate bonifications.

    Cav will be lucky to take 2/3 stages in this year's Tour but his real quest is passing the stage win records of Hinault and Mercxk. For that reason, he's unlikely to chase intermediate sprint stages and there are too many stages outside his capabilities once again that can be taken by the others. No doubt he's quick and probably the fastest here but thats wehre his Tour is going. 5/1 isn't half big enough

    Contador only had Evans and pout of sort Schlecks to beat when he last tried the Giro Tour double. Easily won the Giro without hiccup but failed miserably in the Tour. The Galibier where he lost it was cruel to watch.

    He waivered in the Giro last week but was safe at that stage. If he waivers in the last week here, he's going to have 3 or 4 top quality riders up his arse. I think its beyond him


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    #35
    Taxuser1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭Taxuser1


    sorry forgot to add that there are 380 points available in the intermediates this year. 450 of the Green Jersey Points are available in the first week. Cav needs to win Stage 2 and 5 to stand any chance in my opinion. I think Sagan has points coming to him in 2, 3, 4 and 5. Degenkolb and Kristoff will challenge the sprints too but also look to stage 4 and 5 along the coast. Cav has it all to do


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    #36
    L'Enfer du Nord
    Registered Users Posts: 587 ✭✭✭L'Enfer du Nord


    Arrow in the Knee wrote: »
    What do you think of the match betting on Paddy Power during each stage of TDF?

    Stage 1
    eg: D.Martin 1/2 v S.Kruijswijk 6/4

    Also I can't see C.Froome not winning the Tdf.

    He's won one out six grand tours since 2011, circumstances may be fairly favourable for this tour. He's in form, injury free. But seemingly so are his three credible challengers. Team Sky actually don't have a great grand tour record either. I think both Nibali and Contador alone have won more. I can't decide between the top four on balance Contador at 4-1 looks like the best odds.


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    #37
    Arrow in the Knee
    Registered Users Posts: 956 ✭✭✭Arrow in the Knee


    L'Enfer du Nord wrote: »
    He's won one out six grand tours since 2011, circumstances may be fairly favourable for this tour. He's in form, injury free. But seemingly so are his three credible challengers. Team Sky actually don't have a great grand tour record either. I think both Nibali and Contador alone have won more. I can't decide between the top four on balance Contador at 4-1 looks like the best odds.

    I agree but when Froome goes its like BeastMode (Marshawn Lynch NFL) he just seems unstoppable.

    Hopefully this TDF doesn't lose the main GC riders early on in the tour like last year.


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    #38
    Inquitus
    Registered Users Posts: 13,734 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Darkglasses wrote: »
    I'm definitely guilty of betting in hope more than expectation a lot of the time, but I bet for fun rather than to make money exactly.

    With that in mind, here's my bets as it stands -

    Dan Martin top 20 - 8/15
    Rigerto Uran top 10 - 5/1
    Nico Roche top 10 - 50/1
    Hesjedal top 10 - 7/1
    Froome/Contador vs. The Field - 4/5
    Degenkolb to win Green jersey - 18/1
    Bardet to win White jersey - 7/1
    Bennett to win Stage 2 - 66/1 e/w
    Froome to win GC - 2/1 No Value in this though

    If I had to critique it, the Nico bet is the worst of the lot, he'll be flat stage / medium mountain sky fodder, followed by Uran who didn't have it in a weak Giro field and will be cleaned up here in a Cav sprint train Etixx QS team. Much as I love Ryder again after the Giro he's outclassed here. Sagan needs to fall off for anyone else to win Green and then it would likely be Cav. Love to see Bennett win but a lack of Sprinters stages and in particular ones that suit him makes it doubtful he'll see anything better than a podium if lucky.


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    #39
    Lusk_Doyle
    Registered Users Posts: 4,338 ✭✭✭Lusk_Doyle


    No value in Dan at 8/15 either.


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    #40
    Darkglasses
    Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 14,526 Mod ✭✭✭✭Darkglasses


    Inquitus wrote: »
    If I had to critique it, the Nico bet is the worst of the lot, he'll be flat stage / medium mountain sky fodder, followed by Uran who didn't have it in a weak Giro field and will be cleaned up here in a Cav sprint train Etixx QS team. Much as I love Ryder again after the Giro he's outclassed here. Sagan needs to fall off for anyone else to win Green and then it would likely be Cav. Love to see Bennett win but a lack of Sprinters stages and in particular ones that suit him makes it doubtful he'll see anything better than a podium if lucky.

    I agree about Nico and Ryder, those are both my smallest bets. Why are you ruling out Degenkolb at 18/1 though?


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    #41
    Pudsy33
    Registered Users Posts: 10,731 ✭✭✭✭Pudsy33


    Degs is a good bet I think, he's the main man now and could figure in stage 4 as well as the lumpier stages.


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    #42
    GetWithIt
    Registered Users Posts: 2,081 ✭✭✭GetWithIt


    Tony Martin 4/11 to place on stage 1.

    Considering he's evens to win, and each way on that market is 1/3 and only places top 2, that looks a mistake to me.

    Ordinarily I like putting a few bets on the Tour but every single market looks very open.

    Astana @3 on the team. Yates and Konig top 10 may have value but probably a wasted bet.


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    #43
    qwabercd
    Registered Users Posts: 2,200 ✭✭✭qwabercd


    Froome was enhanced to 5/2 on paddypower, probably a bit of value there but I don't really want to cheer him on so I decided against it. I was torn between contador and nibali, as I feel quintana is underpriced. Had a look at the bike of the winner and Specialize
    (Astana & Etixx Quickstep & Tinkoff Saxo) is 5/2 whereas Canyon (Katusha & Movistar) is 2/1. I would've priced it the other way around as I'd rather have Nibali & Contador as opposed to Quintana/valverde/Rodriguez as the latter 2 realistically don't have much of a chance. So I'm going to have a pop basically on the contador/nibali at 5/2. Happy enough with that price.


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    #44
    Pudsy33
    Registered Users Posts: 10,731 ✭✭✭✭Pudsy33


    Anyone think 18/1 Garmindale for the team classification is huge? Martin, Ryder, and Talansky all capable of being in the top 15. I don't think Sky will have anyone near the top bar Froome.


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    #45
    Darkglasses
    Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 14,526 Mod ✭✭✭✭Darkglasses


    Pudsy33 wrote: »
    Anyone think 18/1 Garmindale for the team classification is huge? Martin, Ryder, and Talansky all capable of being in the top 15. I don't think Sky will have anyone near the top bar Froome.

    That's a good call actually, I might add that to my list.


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    #46
    Inquitus
    Registered Users Posts: 13,734 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Darkglasses wrote: »
    I agree about Nico and Ryder, those are both my smallest bets. Why are you ruling out Degenkolb at 18/1 though?

    Cav's form in the UK Nationals looked really good, I was deeply impressed by his ride, think he's in super shape for the Tour, and if something befalls Sagan I think green is his to lose.


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    #47
    Beasty
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 75,592 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    Sky tend to have a couple of riders there or thereabouts. Clearly their main function is to support Froome, but I'm sure there will be a Plan B which may involve trying to keep Thomas (or Porte) somewhere near contention


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    #48
    Darkglasses
    Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 14,526 Mod ✭✭✭✭Darkglasses


    Inquitus wrote: »
    Cav's form in the UK Nationals looked really good, I was deeply impressed by his ride, think he's in super shape for the Tour, and if something befalls Sagan I think green is his to lose.

    Do you like Cav at 5/1 then?


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    #49
    Inquitus
    Registered Users Posts: 13,734 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Darkglasses wrote: »
    Do you like Cav at 5/1 then?

    I like Cav at 5/1 better than John or Alex, but I do think it's Sagan's to lose.


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    #50
    L'Enfer du Nord
    Registered Users Posts: 587 ✭✭✭L'Enfer du Nord


    Beasty wrote: »
    Sky tend to have a couple of riders there or thereabouts. Clearly their main function is to support Froome, but I'm sure there will be a Plan B which may involve trying to keep Thomas (or Porte) somewhere near contention

    In the tour they tend to fail, or succeed too well in the plan B department.
    Fail 2013, 2014. B stronger than A in the mountains 2012, also Vuelta 2011.

    Sky get a lot more credit than their record in Grand tours deserves. Don't get me wrong Froome deserves to be favourite, but the team have messed up several grand tours. Most recently this years giro. Froome himself hasn't messed up other than last years crashes.


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    #51
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 20,922 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    L'Enfer du Nord wrote: »
    In the tour they tend to fail, or succeed too well in the plan B department.
    Fail 2013, 2014. B stronger than A in the mountains 2012, also Vuelta 2011.

    Sky get a lot more credit than their record in Grand tours deserves. Don't get me wrong Froome deserves to be favourite, but the team have messed up several grand tours. Most recently this years giro. Froome himself hasn't messed up other than last years crashes.

    I agree completely. They're painted as some sort of unstoppable machine, but they've only won the 2012 and 2013 Tours since their foundation in 2010. Nibali and Contador have won more grand tours each in that same time frame.

    They either succeed spectacularly, or fail completely. Mainly because Porte has been their "plan B" for the last few years and he's simply not up to winning a 3 week race.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




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    #52
    Taxuser1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭Taxuser1


    Inquitus wrote: »
    I like Cav at 5/1 better than John or Alex, but I do think it's Sagan's to lose.

    it doesn't matter if Sagan wins, there was money to be made on Degenkolb at 33s for an each way bet

    point was that there was no value in Cav. He's gonna be hard pressed to win and if he comes second it's a quarter odds at 5/1

    this is the smart betting thread !


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    #53
    Taxuser1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭Taxuser1


    and Froome is no value at 2/1 on overall form but on this year's Dauphine win alone, I think it's a massive piece of information and a massive price. I put Froome at 8/11 after Stage 4 if he's still upright


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    #54
    MPFG
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,606 ✭✭✭MPFG


    Best bets for me (haven't a clue of the odds)

    Best team Lotto Jumbo
    Sam Bennett e/w stages 2,5,7
    Sep Van Marke to win Stage 4
    Michael Matthews to win stage 6
    Dan Martin to win stage 8
    Top 10 : Uran, Rolland & Kelderman
    Thomas to wear yellow
    SKY to win TTT
    Top 5 Pinot & Purito


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    #55
    Taxuser1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭Taxuser1


    i backed Lotto Jumbo for the Team Prize too - 7/1


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    #56
    pelevin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,630 ✭✭✭pelevin


    I was wondering myself about Uran for top 10 at 11/2 or so. Logic can only bring u so far though with that one, it's largely a shot in the dark though at maybe attractive enough odds to be worth a shot. Could be knackered after a very unimpressive Giro but one where he did finally come into form towards the very end. Seeing where he'll probably move on from Etixx, for a second I thought "Oh he'll be out to impress prospective teams so," but a moment's pondering says that's rubbish as I'm sure he had loads of heart & effort in the Giro too, it's just all about what's in the legs.


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    #57
    retalivity
    Registered Users Posts: 14,064 ✭✭✭✭retalivity


    Tony martin to finish top 3 in stage 1 @1.33 on bet365, that's buying money.


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    #58
    Arrow in the Knee
    Registered Users Posts: 956 ✭✭✭Arrow in the Knee


    I was thinking Pierre Rolland but the odds aren't great for a top 10 finish.


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    #59
    spock.
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,502 ✭✭✭spock.


    Pinot w/o big 4 @ 10/3 looks good to me.
    It's between him and Tejay @ 6/1 imo.


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    #60
    Taxuser1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭Taxuser1


    retalivity wrote: »
    Tony martin to finish top 3 in stage 1 @1.33 on bet365, that's buying money.

    i have Tony 5th in my list of favourites for the distance behind

    Dumoulin, Kwiatkowski, Cancellara, Malori


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    #61
    MPFG
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,606 ✭✭✭MPFG


    Taxuser1 wrote: »
    i have Tony 5th in my list of favourites for the distance behind

    Dumoulin, Kwiatkowski, Cancellara, Malori

    You would think it would be Dumoulin (the local boy) but at team presentation Tony Martin seemed very confident and the distance really suits him


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