February 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

Jpmarn · 15-02-2017 10:27am

Some answers to our bonus question. We had pleasant romantically high temperatures of 13.5 C at Shannon Airport. 12.9 Moorepark and 12.4 at Valentia. Most stations in the southern half of the country temperature made double figures at best but the failed in the northern half. Even in the Dublin area there were big difference in the highs there. Casement made 10.1c but Airport only made 7.8 with Phoenix Park a degree higher.

M.T. Cranium · 15-02-2017 8:11pm

After the second week ...

IMT on 4.7 with the second week rather cold, 4.3 C which is 1.1 deg below average.

PRC now at 79% with the second week generally dry (apart from Dublin) at 42%.

SUN is now bang on normal (100.1%) with the second week at 86.5% (Valentia quite sunny at 154%).

MAX now 13.5 (Shannon, 14th) as mentioned above with regard to the bonus.

As Valentia came in third and Moore Park was not guessed, I thought it might be fair to tweak the scoring with seven points for the temperature and three for the location, giving three to the Shannon guesses and one point for Valentia.

Those getting seven points for the temperature portion will be Bsal and Dasa29 who were closest at 13.0, as well as Pauldry (12.6). Those at 11.9 to 12.0 will have six points, (Rikand, sryanbruen and Joe Public), then the next three (JCX BXC, Kindred Spirit, Jpmarn also NormaL) get five points, DOCARCH, sunflower3 and Mr Skinner at four along with Con Sensus, Dacogawa, M.T.Cranium and Lumi with three, Rameire, mickger844posts and Tae laidir with two and John mac, waterways and 200motels with the lowest three guesses sharing one point.

Three points for location are added on for Lumi (6), Tae laidir (5) and John mac (4) so nobody qualified for the two point superbonus, and one point will be added to all those who guessed Valentia (about half the field), with Bsal and Pauldry qualifying for one additional superbonus point. So that brings them to 9 points.

M.T. Cranium · 18-02-2017 11:46pm

New MAX of 14.3 at Casement on Friday 17th.

JCX BXC · 18-02-2017 11:54pm

Looks like it'll be broken tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium · 20-02-2017 9:13pm

The 14.3 MAX was tied rather than broken, at Roches Point on Sunday 19th.

JCX BXC · 20-02-2017 9:31pm

Cork Airport reported 15c (rounded) today so I'd say the max has been broken.

M.T. Cranium · 21-02-2017 6:53am

Yes, 14.5 confirmed at Cork, most other numbers not yet posted (as of 0500h, will check the full list around 0900h). Third week summary tomorrow. Looks like a rather bumpy ride to the finish line, but milder end of forecasts probably will do well.

I don't think rain or sunshine will be very far from average.

M.T. Cranium · 21-02-2017 5:32pm

14.9 MAX at Roches Point (20th).

Rikand · 22-02-2017 1:21am

Another degree required to compensate me for my tardy entry

M.T. Cranium · 22-02-2017 10:47pm

You'll do fine with your higher IMT.

Week three update, almost forgot (thanks to Doris) ...

IMT is already up to 6.2, with this past week at an average value of 9.4 C which is a full 3.8 above normal for the week. This may come down slightly by end of the month but not much if at all.

PRC before today was at 76% with the third week rather dry (69%) -- I estimate that this now stands at 83%, so the fourth week will need to be about 1.5 times normal to bring the month up to 100%.

SUN during the past week was a meagre 36.7% dragging the month down to 79% of normal. That may improve slightly or stay about the same in the rather turbulent period ahead. Turbulence at least breaks up some of the cloud.

Max and min have been discussed in previous posts. Stay safe.

M.T. Cranium · 01-03-2017 3:13pm

After four weeks and for the final February figures (to be confirmed with monthly summary tomorrow) ...

IMT finished on 6.3 C with the fourth week also on that value which was 0.4 above normal for the period. The month was more like 0.9 above normal.

PRC for the week was 181% which gives an estimate of 102% of normal for the month.

SUN for the week was 85.2% and the monthly estimate is 81% of normal.

I will confirm all values tomorrow and post some scoring. March contest in a separate thread (if you haven't already entered).

M.T. Cranium · 02-03-2017 8:06pm

The final values confirmed in the MS are:

IMT ..... 6.3 C

MAX ... 14.9 C

MIN .. --5.6 C

PRC .. 104%

SUN ... 80%

Scoring tables up within the hour, I hope.

M.T. Cranium · 02-03-2017 9:17pm

Scoring for February 2017

FORECASTER _______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus __ TOTALS

Kindred Spirit _______ 25 _ 18 _ 14 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 5 _ 0 ______ 78
sryanbruen _________ 20 _ 19 _ 16 _ 10 _ 04 ___ 6 _ 1 ______ 76
DOCARCH __________ 20 _ 17 _ 18 _ 09 _ 05 ___ 4 _ 0 ______ 73
Lumi ______________ 18 _ 11 _ 18 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 3 _ 3 ______ 72
Jpmarn ____________ 23 _ 07 _ 19 _ 10 _ 05 ___ 5 _ 1 ______ 70

NormaL ____________15 _ 19 _ 08 _ 14 _ 06 ___ 5 _ 1 ______ 68

Pauldry ____________20 _ 11 _ 12 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 7 _ 1+1 ____ 66
MrSkinner __________15 _ 15 _ 17 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 1 ______ 66

Con Sensus _________18 _ 11 _ 16 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 1 ______ 66

Rikand ____ (-6) ____ 22 _ 09 _ 18 _ 10 _ 04 ___ 6 _ 0 __ 69-6=63
Dacogawa__________ 13 _ 10 _ 15 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 3 _ 1 ______ 62
JCX BXC ___________ 24 _ 19 _ 01 _ 06 _ 04 ___ 5 _ 1 ______ 60

john mac___________ 14 _ 00 _ 19 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 1 _ 3 ______ 59
Bsal _______________17 _ 11 _ 06 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 7 _ 1+1 ____ 58
waterways__________ 16 _ 08 _ 15 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 1 _ 1 ______ 58
Joe Public __________ 11 _ 10 _ 19 _ 01 _ 10 ___ 6 _ 0 ______ 57
Tae laidir ___________17 _ 09 _ 11 _ 11 _ 04 ___ 2 _ 3 ______ 57
Rameire ___ (-3) ____ 21 _ 11 _ 02 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 2 _ 1 __ 59-3=56
mickger844posts_____ 20 _ 00 _ 18 _ 10 _ 04 ___ 2 _ 0 ______ 54
200motels__________ 16 _ 06 _ 11 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 1 _ 1 ______ 51

Dasa29 ____________ 15 _ 06 _ 01 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 7 _ 0 ______ 49
Sunflower3 _________ 20 _ 16 _ 02 _ 00 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 0 ______ 48
M.T. Cranium _______ 11 _ 09 _ 13 _ 05 _ 05 ___ 3 _ 0 ______ 46
____________________________________________

note that a slight boost of two points was given on MIN scores to achieve minimum progression, points for four raw scores of zero were allocated in rank order, basically everybody got two extra points except the two warmest who got one extra. And in the SUN column, with one score of 10 and nobody at 9, the best of the 8's moved up to 9.

Congrats then to Kindred Spirit, sryanbruen and DOCARCH for medal performances this month, scoring generally quite good.

M.T. Cranium · 02-03-2017 10:40pm

Annual scoring 2017 and winter portion of four seasons 2016-17

Dec 2016 scores will be dropped from this table next month, they are here to fill out the winter totals.

rank/
__ FORECASTER ____ (Dec) __ JAN _ FEB ___ 2017 TOTAL ___ Winter Total (pts)

t01 pauldry _________ (68) ___ 74 __ 66 _____ 140 ________ 208 ___ 10
t01 Jpmarn _________ (60) ___ 70 __ 70 _____ 140 ________ 200 ____ 6

03 Kindred Spirit _____ (44) ___ 54 __ 78 _____ 132 ________ 176 ____ 1
04 Lumi ____________ (66) ___ 57 __ 72 _____ 129 ________ 195 ____ 5 (t)
05 mickger844posts ___(42) ___ 74 __ 54 _____ 128 ________ 170 ____ 1

06 Con Sensus _______(61) ___ 59 __ 66 _____ 125 ________ 186 ____ 3

06 Tae laidir _________(76) ___ 68 __ 57 _____ 125 ________ 201 ____ 7
07 DOCARCH ________(58) ___ 47 __ 73 _____ 120 ________ 178 ____ 2
t08 sryanbruen ______ (41) ___ 43 __ 76 _____ 119 ________ 160
t08 Rikand __________(53) ___ 54 __ 63 _____ 117 ________ 170 ____ 1
10 John mac ________ (46) ___ 58 __ 59 _____ 117 ________ 163
11 MrSkinner ________(79) ___ 50 __ 66 _____ 116 ________ 195 ____ 5 (t)
12 200motels ________(61) ___ 64 __ 51 _____ 115 ________ 176 ____ 1
13 Rameire _________ (56) ___ 57 __ 56 _____ 113 ________ 169

14 NormaL _________ (81) ___ 43 __ 68 _____ 111 ________ 192 ____ 3

14 Dacogawa ________(51) ___ 46 __ 62 _____ 108 ________ 159
15 waterways _______ (41) ___ 49 __ 58 _____ 107 ________ 148
15 Bsal ____________ (50) ___ 49 __ 58 _____ 107 ________ 157
17 Dasa29 __________(33) ___ 55 __ 49 _____ 104 ________ 137
18 M.T. Cranium _____ (62) ___ 53 __ 46 ______ 99 ________ 161
19 sunflower3 _______ (89) ___ 46 __ 48 ______ 94 ________ 183 ____ 3
20 Joe Public ________ (69) ___ 36 __ 57 ______ 93 ________ 162
21 JCX BXC _________ (--) ___ --- __ 60 ______ 60

=================================================

=================================================

(Four seasons, totals Dec - Feb are then awarded points, ten for top score and then seven for 2nd, six for 3rd etc, down to 1 point for each of 8th, 9th and 10th. Two were tied for 10th so there are in fact eleven people with points. If your seasonal score was below 170, no points for you.

As to the annual scoring, Pauldry and Jpmarn are setting the pace with an average of 70 for the first two months. Not too big a spread yet, everyone in with a chance, and remember, the main contest drops your two worst scores so if you've missed a month, keep playing and you still have one other score to drop even if you have that missed month.

M.T. Cranium · 04-04-2017 8:30pm

The numbers in the above table are all okay but the ranks were inserted with errors between 8th and 10th place.

In fact the tie was not for 8th place, Sryanbruen has that alone, the tie was 9th between Rikand and John mac.

Means nothing to the actual data in the tables, carry on.

February 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

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