Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

kowtow · 09-02-2016 1:29pm

frazzledhome wrote: »

Avoca, over priced mass produced muck

And a very random store layout.

I've come to the conclusion they do it for security reasons.

The average robber, breaking into Avoca during the night and shining a flashlight around, would conclude that others had got there before him.

kowtow · 09-02-2016 2:14pm

keep going wrote: »

All this talk of organic and the one big problem hasnt been mentioned, its unsustainable. If you were to do it by the book without extra subsidies there s not enough premium to compensate for the reduced production that can justify the extra work.yeah its grand to sell your stuff to the "avoca"set but look at the supermarkets and foodoutlets, the volmue is dictated by price

That's certainly the obvious conclusion, but I'm not sure that it's true in the fullest sense. As someone said above - the small mixed farms somehow seemed to make a better living (not to mention the families they fed directly).

It's only during the sixty years or so that farmers have taken up the industrial practice of specialisation lock stock and barrel. Where once farms produced a diversity of food (by and large) we now specialise and produce single ingredients, largely grown as mono-crops, the raw materials for a process which sees food - perhaps - only as fuel.

The availability of synthetic fertiliser has enabled us to make a production line of agriculture, producing food down to a price, but at considerable cost (family economics, environmental, and - importantly - quality). In fact, the resulting industry is so dysfunctional in economic terms that it requires constant taxpayer support just to get the raw material out of the farm gate.

What we've done is to separate production entirely from consumption, which is the polar opposite of what the worlds successful industries do.

I think as farmers we still see specialisation / industrialisation as progress - but I wonder if we are missing a trick, and if that will always be the case. Plenty of industries (not least technology) have discovered that specialisation is a road to dwindling profits and destroys innovation.

In my Fathers day secretaries typed letters, receptionists answered phones, messengers carried messages, drivers drove, computer people did spreadsheets, accountants prepared accounts, Mothers or Nannies looked after children, the girls cooked, and parenting (if it was even a thing) was the province of the schoolmaster.

But we've moved a long way past that today, from the tiniest Cork business to a Wall street skyscraper you'd be pushed to find a middle aged businessman or woman who doesn't do - or take a strong interest in - most of those things themselves.

It's easy to dismiss mixed & organic farming as a fad - but it's a fad which has been going strong for 7950 of the last 8000 years of agriculture.

Who knows, it might come back into fashion.

alps · 09-02-2016 3:48pm

Any one at Dairy Seminar in Nenagh last night? Denis Brosnan predicts a milk price of between 20 and 22 c/l for the next 4 to 5 years? That no of dairy farmers will be down to 7000 in 10 years time? Can anyone throw some light on the subject....

fepper · 09-02-2016 3:50pm

Where's neath?

whelan2 · 09-02-2016 3:52pm

alps wrote: »

Any one at Dairy Seminar in Neath last night? Denis Brosnan predicts a milk price of between 20 and 22 c/l for the next 4 to 5 years? That no of dairy farmers will be down to 7000 in 10 years time? Can anyone throw some light on the subject....

Interesting that I got a brochure on forestry with my lakelands bill today

alps · 09-02-2016 4:01pm

fepper wrote: »

Where's neath?

Good Spot fepper. .

fepper · 09-02-2016 4:13pm

alps wrote: »

Any one at Dairy Seminar in Nenagh last night? Denis Brosnan predicts a milk price of between 20 and 22 c/l for the next 4 to 5 years? That no of dairy farmers will be down to 7000 in 10 years time? Can anyone throw some light on the subject....

Denis brosnan pulls no punches and certainly knows what he is talking about

kowtow · 09-02-2016 4:15pm

Back to conventional milk prices..

A couple of articles suggest that EU nations (France, Germany?) are pushing for subsidies to take people out of production when prices fall.

From an EU perspective you'd have thought we'd have learned a bit about moral hazard by now, but apparently not.

NZ / US producers must be thrilled that EU taxpayers, not content with subsidising our own markets, are now going to underwrite the world milk price as well.

Buford T. Justice XIX · 09-02-2016 4:44pm

alps wrote: »

Any one at Dairy Seminar in Nenagh last night? Denis Brosnan predicts a milk price of between 20 and 22 c/l for the next 4 to 5 years? That no of dairy farmers will be down to 7000 in 10 years time? Can anyone throw some light on the subject....

In 1973, when we joined the EEC, there were some 145,000 dairy farmers in Ireland.

In 2016, there are some 17,500 dairy farmers, iirc.

Off farm employment is hugely attractive in terms of wages and hours worked so there will nearly always be a stronger pull off farm than on farm.

jaymla627 · 09-02-2016 6:08pm

fepper wrote: »

Denis brosnan pulls no punches and certainly knows what he is talking about

Pretty outlandish statement to be fair, it ultimately means that dairy/grain/beef markets are screwed indefinitely for the next 5 years as all are pretty much linked together in so far as cheap grain means lots of milk pumped out and to a lesser extent beef....
So the worlds goverments are heading for a situation where they are prepared to basically bankrupt nearly all farmers worldwide and destroy rural economies, if that comes to pass could be a fairly big famine on the cards in the not so distant future

farmerjj · 09-02-2016 6:23pm

jaymla627 wrote: »

Pretty outlandish statement to be fair, it ultimately means that dairy/grain/beef markets are screwed indefinitely for the next 5 years as all are pretty much linked together in so far as cheap grain means lots of milk pumped out and to a lesser extent beef....
So the worlds goverments are heading for a situation where they are prepared to basically bankrupt nearly all farmers worldwide and destroy rural economies, if that comes to pass could be a fairly big famine on the cards in the not so distant future

I wouldn't lose any sleep over those predictions, how could anyone know what price anything is going to be in 5years. Its just a "educated" guess.

Farmer Ed · 09-02-2016 7:06pm

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

In 1973, when we joined the EEC, there were some 145,000 dairy farmers in Ireland.

In 2016, there are some 17,500 dairy farmers, iirc.

Off farm employment is hugely attractive in terms of wages and hours worked so there will nearly always be a stronger pull off farm than on farm.

How many extra dairy farmers did Simon predict by 2020? Unfortunately it seems Denis Brosnan has a better record of getting predictions right. I certainly hope he got this one wrong.

WheatenBriar · 09-02-2016 7:37pm

whelan2 wrote: »

Interesting that I got a brochure on forestry with my lakelands bill today

Aye, seriously how could milk be worth for the next 5 years half what it was 2 yrs ago without someone somewhere taking even more of the p i ss than usual?

kowtow · 09-02-2016 7:56pm

jaymla627 wrote: »

Pretty outlandish statement to be fair, it ultimately means that dairy/grain/beef markets are screwed indefinitely for the next 5 years as all are pretty much linked together in so far as cheap grain means lots of milk pumped out and to a lesser extent beef....
So the worlds goverments are heading for a situation where they are prepared to basically bankrupt nearly all farmers worldwide and destroy rural economies, if that comes to pass could be a fairly big famine on the cards in the not so distant future

Unfortunately something has to deflate, trouble is no matter how hard the central banks push nothing (especially currency) seems to want to.

Specific price predictions especially over 5 years are nonsense, mostly because they are given without context. A milk price of 35c is one thing, for example, but if it's accompanied by a minimum wage of €18, land prices tanking, a wealth tax including agricultural land, and interest rates spiking into double figures, we might wish we were back where we are today.

I think there's a fairly strong chance that relatively weak commodity prices will be with us for a good while now, but the key word is relatively. How that feels to farmers will depend on what else is weak / strong at the same time.

Dawggone · 09-02-2016 10:19pm

keep going wrote: »

All this talk of organic and the one big problem hasnt been mentioned, its unsustainable. If you were to do it by the book without extra subsidies there s not enough premium to compensate for the reduced production that can justify the extra work.yeah its grand to sell your stuff to the "avoca"set but look at the supermarkets and foodoutlets, the volmue is dictated by price

Depends.
If the market demands the product and are willing to pay the premium.

I've no idea of the Avoca business so I'm assuming it's akin to Donnybrook Fair...

Dawggone · 09-02-2016 10:24pm

kowtow wrote: »

That's certainly the obvious conclusion, but I'm not sure that it's true in the fullest sense. As someone said above - the small mixed farms somehow seemed to make a better living (not to mention the families they fed directly).

It's only during the sixty years or so that farmers have taken up the industrial practice of specialisation lock stock and barrel. Where once farms produced a diversity of food (by and large) we now specialise and produce single ingredients, largely grown as mono-crops, the raw materials for a process which sees food - perhaps - only as fuel.

The availability of synthetic fertiliser has enabled us to make a production line of agriculture, producing food down to a price, but at considerable cost (family economics, environmental, and - importantly - quality). In fact, the resulting industry is so dysfunctional in economic terms that it requires constant taxpayer support just to get the raw material out of the farm gate.

What we've done is to separate production entirely from consumption, which is the polar opposite of what the worlds successful industries do.

I think as farmers we still see specialisation / industrialisation as progress - but I wonder if we are missing a trick, and if that will always be the case. Plenty of industries (not least technology) have discovered that specialisation is a road to dwindling profits and destroys innovation.

In my Fathers day secretaries typed letters, receptionists answered phones, messengers carried messages, drivers drove, computer people did spreadsheets, accountants prepared accounts, Mothers or Nannies looked after children, the girls cooked, and parenting (if it was even a thing) was the province of the schoolmaster.

But we've moved a long way past that today, from the tiniest Cork business to a Wall street skyscraper you'd be pushed to find a middle aged businessman or woman who doesn't do - or take a strong interest in - most of those things themselves.

It's easy to dismiss mixed & organic farming as a fad - but it's a fad which has been going strong for 7950 of the last 8000 years of agriculture.

Who knows, it might come back into fashion.

Again, excellent contribution.

I would add that specialisation doesn't mean that farmers specialised in one product.

Edit. I'd like to debate more on this post, but I'm just too tired now. Maybe tomorrow. Lots there to tease out.

Dawggone · 09-02-2016 10:28pm

fepper wrote: »

Where's neath?

South Wales?

Dawggone · 09-02-2016 10:29pm

kowtow wrote: »

Back to conventional milk prices..

A couple of articles suggest that EU nations (France, Germany?) are pushing for subsidies to take people out of production when prices fall.

From an EU perspective you'd have thought we'd have learned a bit about moral hazard by now, but apparently not.

NZ / US producers must be thrilled that EU taxpayers, not content with subsidising our own markets, are now going to underwrite the world milk price as well.

Nothing new there.
Financial crisis...

Dawggone · 09-02-2016 10:31pm

jaymla627 wrote: »

Pretty outlandish statement to be fair, it ultimately means that dairy/grain/beef markets are screwed indefinitely for the next 5 years as all are pretty much linked together in so far as cheap grain means lots of milk pumped out and to a lesser extent beef....
So the worlds goverments are heading for a situation where they are prepared to basically bankrupt nearly all farmers worldwide and destroy rural economies, if that comes to pass could be a fairly big famine on the cards in the not so distant future

+1.
Agreed up to the point about famine.

Dawggone · 09-02-2016 10:33pm

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Aye, seriously how could milk be worth for the next 5 years half what it was 2 yrs ago without someone somewhere taking even more of the p i ss than usual?

Wheat, corn....etc.

Dawggone · 09-02-2016 10:37pm

kowtow wrote: »

Unfortunately something has to deflate, trouble is no matter how hard the central banks push nothing (especially currency) seems to want to.

Specific price predictions especially over 5 years are nonsense, mostly because they are given without context. A milk price of 35c is one thing, for example, but if it's accompanied by a minimum wage of €18, land prices tanking, a wealth tax including agricultural land, and interest rates spiking into double figures, we might wish we were back where we are today.

I think there's a fairly strong chance that relatively weak commodity prices will be with us for a good while now, but the key word is relatively. How that feels to farmers will depend on what else is weak / strong at the same time.

Boss was saying that to me recently.
Major weather events may prove to be a brief respite. I hope he's wrong.

Edit. A worker on the basic minimum costs me €19.05/hr.

Bass Reeves · 10-02-2016 12:21am

alps wrote: »

Any one at Dairy Seminar in Nenagh last night? Denis Brosnan predicts a milk price of between 20 and 22 c/l for the next 4 to 5 years? That no of dairy farmers will be down to 7000 in 10 years time? Can anyone throw some light on the subject....

I have great time for Denis Brosnan. However I cannot see how a milk price oF 20-22c/L is sustainable over 12 months not to mind 5 years. The main reason the US producers have survived over last 12 months is a strong calf price. This is now gone as beef prices Tumbled pre Christmas in the US.

Processors (packers as they are known in the US) have bought in a weight limit of of 750 LW( equial to a carcass weight of about 360-390kgs). Where else has this happened.:cool:. It will be interesting even with low grain and oil prices, as well as cheap labour how long they can produce milk at the the equivalent of 25c/L. If we see that kind of price even for the medium term numbers will fall fast.

Maybe we are entering a time of cheap oil sub 50/barrel but it is hard to see how food production will continue to increase with prices in this region.

alps · 10-02-2016 1:06am

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I have great time for Denis Brosnan. However I cannot see how a milk price oF 20-22c/L is sustainable over 12 months not to mind 5 years. The main reason the US producers have survived over last 12 months is a strong calf price. This is now gone as beef prices Tumbled pre Christmas in the US.

Processors (packers as they are known in the US) have bought in a weight limit of of 750 LW( equial to a carcass weight of about 360-390kgs). Where else has this happened.:cool:. It will be interesting even with low grain and oil prices, as well as cheap labour how long they can produce milk at the the equivalent of 25c/L. If we see that kind of price even for the medium term numbers will fall fast.

Maybe we are entering a time of cheap oil sub 50/barrel but it is hard to see how food production will continue to increase with prices in this region.

My concern has always been, is that Ireland is one of the only producing countries that pays down debt. We compete against the other nations who roll over, roll up, trade up, assume loans in takeovers, and buy out from parents.
Many of the systems are pyramid schemes, but the debt burden relating to the cows producing milk on these farms rarely reduces.
We must also remember that , even if the owners or operator of these farms go bust, the farm will continue to produce milk...This will be of the utmost importance to the banking industry...that the farms keep product milk....

I am very concerned that the next 5 years will force much of our production systems into this roll on type debt scenario, which is going to be a terrible shame for what are currently family owned jewels, and may very shortly be in effect be given away in order for this generation to continue producing milk....

It's certainly going to be very very difficult to have a meaningful quality of living without the risk of this debt setting in......

WheatenBriar · 10-02-2016 11:01am

Dawggone wrote: »

Wheat, corn....etc.

Less lads on the oil rigs eating less?

Like others I don't buy the supposed connection between oil and milk

All thats happening,all that ever happens is the powerful (including kamakaze creations by the farmer himself) are exploiting the weak with no curbs
The best way to get ahead in farming is to educate yourself, get a job in glanbia,climb up the ranks collecting as many bonuses as possible whilst renting your farm out to a fool

Too late for me,only another decade left in me

kowtow · 10-02-2016 11:36am

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Less lads on the oil rigs eating less?

Like others I don't buy the supposed connection between oil and milk

It's the connection / correlation between oil and milk and the wider commodity complex (or perhaps the shared factors which drive all of them) which led to the unusually high milk prices seen between 2005-2014, and created the Irish (and even the NZ) "powder trade" and all that goes with it.

That correlation and the resulting prices really are simply global markets responding to stimuli, and markets (believe it or not) are viciously liberal and democratic, the sum total of everybody's disagreeable and greedy attempts to do the best for themselves on their own little patch. The global milk powder price may be many things, but it is not the result of a grand conspiracy of any kind.

The plight of dairy farmers, I'm afraid, has it's roots much closer to home. Global markets did not thrust Harvest 2020 and powder plant investments upon us. We allowed our own greed to overcome our better judgement, and bought into the idea that there was low risk money to be made by exporting a huge surplus of milk powder to countries half a world away. In doing so, we willingly disregarded the cost of labour and land and declared ourselves "competitive" enough to withstand market forces better than the next man.

And we permitted, indeed promoted, arrangements in some of our processors and co-operatives which may well have jolted their interests out of line with our own.

What we are seeing now is the market answering back. Thankfully we are not for the most part as far along the road as we could be, without too much debt and on the whole having to forgo our own living rather than miss payroll for a lot of hired workers, or miss payments on borrowed money for land. In this sense at least the debt free family farm is relatively resilient.

The question is whether - having seen the teeth of the market - we will pause for thought and take an intelligent view of the true cost of production and expansion, and - most importantly - stop giving carte blanche to our co-operatives and processors to take open ended risks underwritten by our labour & assets.

We must farm with a sharper pencil - both inside and outside the farm gate.

Dawggone · 10-02-2016 11:56am

kowtow wrote: »

It's the connection / correlation between oil and milk and the wider commodity complex (or perhaps the shared factors which drive all of them) which led to the unusually high milk prices seen between 2005-2014, and created the Irish (and even the NZ) "powder trade" and all that goes with it.

That correlation and the resulting prices really are simply global markets responding to stimuli, and markets (believe it or not) are viciously liberal and democratic, the sum total of everybody's disagreeable and greedy attempts to do the best for themselves on their own little patch. The global milk powder price may be many things, but it is not the result of a grand conspiracy of any kind.

The plight of dairy farmers, I'm afraid, has it's roots much closer to home. Global markets did not thrust Harvest 2020 and powder plant investments upon us. We allowed our own greed to overcome our better judgement, and bought into the idea that there was low risk money to be made by exporting a huge surplus of milk powder to countries half a world away. In doing so, we willingly disregarded the cost of labour and land and declared ourselves "competitive" enough to withstand market forces better than the next man.

And we permitted, indeed promoted, arrangements in some of our processors and co-operatives which may well have jolted their interests out of line with our own.

What we are seeing now is the market answering back. Thankfully we are not for the most part as far along the road as we could be, without too much debt and on the whole having to forgo our own living rather than miss payroll for a lot of hired workers, or miss payments on borrowed money for land. In this sense at least the debt free family farm is relatively resilient.

The question is whether - having seen the teeth of the market - we will pause for thought and take an intelligent view of the true cost of production and expansion, and - most importantly - stop giving carte blanche to our co-operatives and processors to take open ended risks underwritten by our labour & assets.

We must farm with a sharper pencil - both inside and outside the farm gate.

+1000. Nutshell.

I particularly like; "Markets are...the sum total of everybody's disagreeable and greedy attempts to do the best for themselves on their own little patch"

If you had written that a year or so ago...you'd be hanging with Elvis fairly quickly!

Did you see this slump/reset/crash in commodities coming?

I didn't...

kowtow · 10-02-2016 12:06pm

Dawggone wrote: »

Did you see this slump/reset/crash in commodities coming?

I didn't...

Nope, certainly not the timing of it, although I wouldn't been long any commodity since about 2011.

Quite a sharp rebound in oils yesterday, might be nervous hands holding short positions at this end of the market so it wouldn't surprise me if we retrace some losses in commodities in the near term - but note I don't watch these markets so I really don't have a view one way or the other, and if I did it would be subject to change at very short notice.

But you didn't need to see the timing of the commodity slump to see that the Harvest 2020 plan (at least at it's extremes) was simplistic & lacked realism. Since the first day I started looking at dairy here I've found the macro approach disquieting, actually a complete contrast to the individual farmers at the micro level. I think the on-farm skill and dedication is amazing.

The madness of crowds is a sure enough bet without institutional cheer-leading.

*Edit - I did say here, about 3 years ago I think

"Of course whether or not we are going to get cheaper grain (in real terms), and from where, is the near term issue. Today a good Irish acre costs about 1000 bushels of Chicago Soy - that's the ratio to watch."

I think everyone thought I was stone mad then, and of course they were absolutely right, albeit for the wrong reasons.

Farmer Ed · 10-02-2016 12:11pm

kowtow wrote: »

It's the connection / correlation between oil and milk and the wider commodity complex (or perhaps the shared factors which drive all of them) which led to the unusually high milk prices seen between 2005-2014, and created the Irish (and even the NZ) "powder trade" and all that goes with it.

That correlation and the resulting prices really are simply global markets responding to stimuli, and markets (believe it or not) are viciously liberal and democratic, the sum total of everybody's disagreeable and greedy attempts to do the best for themselves on their own little patch. The global milk powder price may be many things, but it is not the result of a grand conspiracy of any kind.

The plight of dairy farmers, I'm afraid, has it's roots much closer to home. Global markets did not thrust Harvest 2020 and powder plant investments upon us. We allowed our own greed to overcome our better judgement, and bought into the idea that there was low risk money to be made by exporting a huge surplus of milk powder to countries half a world away. In doing so, we willingly disregarded the cost of labour and land and declared ourselves "competitive" enough to withstand market forces better than the next man.

And we permitted, indeed promoted, arrangements in some of our processors and co-operatives which may well have jolted their interests out of line with our own.

What we are seeing now is the market answering back. Thankfully we are not for the most part as far along the road as we could be, without too much debt and on the whole having to forgo our own living rather than miss payroll for a lot of hired workers, or miss payments on borrowed money for land. In this sense at least the debt free family farm is relatively resilient.

The question is whether - having seen the teeth of the market - we will pause for thought and take an intelligent view of the true cost of production and expansion, and - most importantly - stop giving carte blanche to our co-operatives and processors to take open ended risks underwritten by our labour & assets.

We must farm with a sharper pencil - both inside and outside the farm gate.

+1000000

What a lot of people don't seem to realise is that when our processors take risks.if things don't work out farmers are the ones carrying the can. Some processors have been carrying out a lot of elaborate overpriced investment in recent times. Farmer's were told all this was for making high end infant formula for the Chinese market. In reality it is only being used for drying skim for intervention. I spoke to a man yesterday who told me that a lot of cheese had to be shifted out of an East cork plant last week as it was almost out of date. Ultimately the farmer will be the one who has to carry the can.

patsy_mccabe · 10-02-2016 12:29pm

I blame OPEC for the low milk prices.:D They drove down oil prices to kill off all these new ventures into gas fracking, alternative fuels etc.
Outside of agriculture, a lot of companies, some in Ireland, are in serious trouble with low oil prices. Companies that supply the oil exploration outfits, for example. I know of one guy heading into work today expecting bad news.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/dec/07/opec-plan-kill-us-shale-oil-price-down-seven-year-low

alps · 10-02-2016 12:47pm

kowtow wrote: »

It's the connection / correlation between oil and milk and the wider commodity complex (or perhaps the shared factors which drive all of them) which led to the unusually high milk prices seen between 2005-2014, and created the Irish (and even the NZ) "powder trade" and all that goes with it.

That correlation and the resulting prices really are simply global markets responding to stimuli, and markets (believe it or not) are viciously liberal and democratic, the sum total of everybody's disagreeable and greedy attempts to do the best for themselves on their own little patch. The global milk powder price may be many things, but it is not the result of a grand conspiracy of any kind.

The plight of dairy farmers, I'm afraid, has it's roots much closer to home. Global markets did not thrust Harvest 2020 and powder plant investments upon us. We allowed our own greed to overcome our better judgement, and bought into the idea that there was low risk money to be made by exporting a huge surplus of milk powder to countries half a world away. In doing so, we willingly disregarded the cost of labour and land and declared ourselves "competitive" enough to withstand market forces better than the next man.

And we permitted, indeed promoted, arrangements in some of our processors and co-operatives which may well have jolted their interests out of line with our own.

What we are seeing now is the market answering back. Thankfully we are not for the most part as far along the road as we could be, without too much debt and on the whole having to forgo our own living rather than miss payroll for a lot of hired workers, or miss payments on borrowed money for land. In this sense at least the debt free family farm is relatively resilient.

The question is whether - having seen the teeth of the market - we will pause for thought and take an intelligent view of the true cost of production and expansion, and - most importantly - stop giving carte blanche to our co-operatives and processors to take open ended risks underwritten by our labour & assets.

We must farm with a sharper pencil - both inside and outside the farm gate.

Phenomenal piece......wish the wider farming community could see it.....They need to....

kowtow · 10-02-2016 1:03pm

alps wrote: »

Phenomenal piece......wish the wider farming community could see it.....They need to....

It's kind of you to say so but in fairness it's very easy for me to stand back and analyse from the comfortable position of not having to rely on a dairy income. With my farming skills I'd be lucky to fund an internet connection let alone a powder plant.

For what it is worth, I think we are really good at dairy as a nation and I think there is a passion and skill for it here which goes way beyond our size. When we eventually get it right, the world is our Oyster. We just have to recognise that these things don't come as easily and as quickly as others might want us to believe.

Bass Reeves · 10-02-2016 1:17pm

alps wrote: »

My concern has always been, is that Ireland is one of the only producing countries that pays down debt. We compete against the other nations who roll over, roll up, trade up, assume loans in takeovers, and buy out from parents.
Many of the systems are pyramid schemes, but the debt burden relating to the cows producing milk on these farms rarely reduces.
We must also remember that , even if the owners or operator of these farms go bust, the farm will continue to produce milk...This will be of the utmost importance to the banking industry...that the farms keep product milk....

I am very concerned that the next 5 years will force much of our production systems into this roll on type debt scenario, which is going to be a terrible shame for what are currently family owned jewels, and may very shortly be in effect be given away in order for this generation to continue producing milk....

It's certainly going to be very very difficult to have a meaningful quality of living without the risk of this debt setting in......

I accept some of what you are saying. I also see you point that continual expansion is seen as the answer to low margins, it is the same in beef, grain and other agri sectors. However at certain prices it becomes uneconomical to produce any product. Not only that it prevents investment in the system.The US has traditionally dropped milk production at sub 30c/L, however last year a high beef price translated into a 5c/L milk price. This allowed them to stay in the game. However it is hard to see a long term price of 25-30c/L not to mind the figure of 22c/L

If you look at beef when it drops below 3.7/kg calf exports rise expodentially, this reduces production in Ireland 2 years later, the shortage of cattle then results in lads outbidding the exporters which starts the cycle again.

patsy_mccabe · 10-02-2016 1:30pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

... If you look at beef when it drops below 3.7/kg calf exports rise expodentially, this reduces production in Ireland 2 years later, the shortage of cattle then results in lads outbidding the exporters which starts the cycle again.

That's happened in the last few years alright. It's amazing that in a country with such a reliance on Beef that we don't have a beef futures market. It would certainly help farmers plan better.

atlantic mist · 10-02-2016 3:34pm

the funny thing is our processors knew it was coming all our boys at the tops tables, (a lot shared up and shut up) which worries me as its the we have the same type leadership as the banks back at before the collapse, AIB sold head office in dublin before crash...whos says they didnt know it was coming?

the board knew what was coming, our coops and processors have made sure to get investment in before price collapse, lovely shiny new buildings all calling in reps calling in lovely cars, easily kept the margin with new gear so they'll keep going no big debt they left that to the farmer trying to expand/survive

the dog on the street know the stability of milk was not going to be there the minute the EU ceased quotas were in a price war its between EU, US and NZ were all competing for market share were the same as opec were not aiding cutting supply then again were only a dot in the ocean in comparison to other countries

the price collapse came 9 months earlier than we anticipated here, we knew it was coming this collapse nobody can call as its a historical event the lifting of quotas the world supply must re balance and who is prepared to reduce production? other regions were trying to curtail eu production so i could understand it

the whole world seems to be unviable with cheap oil who would have thought it its right across the board in every sector, few years ago we were running out of oil

Dawggone · 10-02-2016 7:14pm

The JV between a Chinese company and my processor has been running 24/7 since the start of the year. It had been laying idle for nearly 2yrs before.
All milk under 150k scc is being processed there for baby formula, including mine.

I wonder will they increase price like some other Coops...should know in the coming weeks.

quader · 11-02-2016 2:52pm

:eek:told today by a rep that dairygold are droping the price by 2 cent anyone else here this :eek:

keep going · 11-02-2016 3:15pm

quader wrote: »

:eek:told today by a rep that dairygold are droping the price by 2 cent anyone else here this :eek:

Mods can we close this thread, fed up of the misery on it.

frazzledhome · 11-02-2016 3:32pm

keep going wrote: »

Mods can we close this thread, fed up of the misery on it.

Absolutely agree 100%

Kovu · 11-02-2016 3:44pm

keep going wrote: »

Mods can we close this thread, fed up of the misery on it.

Ah we're Irish. If we don't like the bit of misery, we sure do love complaining about it at least.

patsy_mccabe · 11-02-2016 3:53pm

quader wrote: »

:eek:told today by a rep that dairygold are droping the price by 2 cent anyone else here this :eek:

To what price?

Dawggone · 11-02-2016 4:06pm

frazzledhome wrote: »

Absolutely agree 100%

Totally disagree.
This is informative and objective.
Best thread on the forum!

There are tillage fora in French that would really depress...:(

Edit. The op that opened the thread (DeLaval) was a regular contributor. Worth a read back a couple of years back when he averaged 47cpl for the year.

:)

freedominacup · 11-02-2016 4:28pm

quader wrote: »

:eek:told today by a rep that dairygold are droping the price by 2 cent anyone else here this :eek:

There was only one answer for that cnut and that was that you had heard the farmer shareholders were gunning for the wage bill and that they didn't care how the 30% cut was achieved. It's immaterial whether they go for straight wage cuts or redundancies. Watch the grin turn into a rictus.

frazzledhome · 11-02-2016 4:45pm

Dawggone wrote: »

Totally disagree.
This is informative and objective.
Best thread on the forum!

There are tillage fora in French that would really depress...:(

Edit. The op that opened the thread (DeLaval) was a regular contributor. Worth a read back a couple of years back when he averaged 47cpl for the year. :)

It's the guessing and "informed opinion" gets me.

I heard he got 36c in 2015 and that's with runts of cows, no roofs and above all cows eating grass. Added to that is 5c in stock sales including "valueless" calves

He also knows the grass isn't free but does know how much it costs

mahoney_j · 11-02-2016 4:49pm

quader wrote: »

:eek:told today by a rep that dairygold are droping the price by 2 cent anyone else here this :eek:

I heard 3 and 2 more next month .....

kevthegaff · 11-02-2016 5:14pm

Imagine the shock if we didn't know what we gee gona get when opening our milk statement...its important also to discuss the Co ops and how they're operating/extorting lol. The best thread on boards imo courtesy of delaval!

kevthegaff · 11-02-2016 5:16pm

mahoney_j wrote: »

I heard 3 and 2 more next month .....

That's my ideas of a new skidsteer down the toilet ;-(

kowtow · 11-02-2016 5:30pm

frazzledhome wrote: »

It's the guessing and "informed opinion" gets me.

I heard he got 36c in 2015 and that's with runts of cows, no roofs and above all cows eating grass. Added to that is 5c in stock sales including "valueless" calves

He also knows the grass isn't free but does know how much it costs

The Man deserves a cigar. A biggish one.

mahoney_j · 11-02-2016 5:34pm

kevthegaff wrote: »

That's my ideas of a new skidsteer down the toilet ;-(

That was tongue in cheek comment Kev !!

Farmer Ed · 11-02-2016 5:45pm

kevthegaff wrote: »

That's my ideas of a new skidsteer down the toilet ;-(

Cheer up At least your not supplying Dg. I would hope that some of the other processors wont find themselves under so much pressure. I just hope they won't use it as an excuse to drop the price also . There has been a history of the big boys leading the way.

darragh_haven · 11-02-2016 7:51pm

frazzledhome wrote: »

It's the guessing and "informed opinion" gets me.

I heard he got 36c in 2015 and that's with runts of cows, no roofs and above all cows eating grass. Added to that is 5c in stock sales including "valueless" calves

He also knows the grass isn't free but does know how much it costs

Ah shur don't mind that fella, he doesn't need any tanker to spread ****e

Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

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