Will Dublin Bus remain the dominant form of public transport in Dublin?

Quite correct Antoin - in my other posts I said "bus" - I did not specify Dublin Bus and would certainly like to clarify that point.

AngryLips wrote: »

What are the figures between 2000 and 2007? Did the drastic drop coincide with the economic downturn or did it occur during the boom?

Maybe the two tram lines opening changed the bus user mix

The drop from 190m to 112m appears to be largely accounted for by the greater availability of motor cars.

There are no private bus companies or anybody else mopping up the difference.

I am told that at one point the Dublin Bus (or its predecessor CIE) were doing over 250m passengers per year, but I do not have any figures.

It is a bit off-topic, but it is hard to overstate the decline that has occurred in public transport in Dublin in our lifetimes.

Anecdotally, I sometimes get the 40 or 123 in the mornings and I'm surprised to see both busses, at a point relatively close to the city centre so near the end point of most rush hour journeys, to only be half full with seating available upstairs or on both decks.

Surely there the also fact that there is more high-density accommodation and a greatrer tendancy for the younger generation to live more centrally than our parents generation looking for their lillte piece of suburbia. So busses become redundant for many people in that regard. Then in the evening, taxis have become relatively cheaper and more available too.

I don't know the relevance of these factors but as with most things, I guess its a combination of many little things.

Considering the current economic situation, I think the bus will remain the dominant form of public transport in Dublin. Whether Dublin Bus continues to be the main player is really up to the NTA. Once the fare structure in Dublin is sorted out, I don't think passengers will care what bus operator they use.

A lot has changed since 1999. 12 years ago there was no Luas, the road network was not as good, and the city was not as big as it is now.

I think one major factor which caused many to switch to cars was how the city developed. The planning was pretty awful, with large housing developmens being built in areas without any thought to public transport. Areas like Adamstown, Ongar, Citywest, Leopardstown etc. all opened with residents moving in and having no choice to buy a car. Of course, this was at a time when people had cash to spend on a car, or at least get a bank loan without much hassle.

Dublin Bus found it hard to keep up with the pressure for buses in these areas. The fleet expanded greatly between 2000-2005 to try cope with demand. Despite this, the lack of joined up thinking meant it took years for a dedicated decent bus service to reach places like Belarmine and Adamstown. In the meantime, people had switched to using cars.

I believe another failure has been the lack of orbital routes across the city. Right through the noughties, and still to this day, there was a belief that all frequent bus services should just go to or through the city centre. Despite areas like Leixlip, Swords, Citywest, Grange Castle and Sandyford now employing thousands of people and all having good access to the M50, there was no recognition of this and people who before commuted into town now found their company or work being out of the city and had no option but to drive.

The OP asks about the future, and I do believe that the bus will play an important role. As great as Luas and Dart are, they still don't penetrate the areas of Dublin like the bus does. I also don't think the country will be flush with cash in the near future to develop any major rail project or BRT, so with that in mind, it will take joined up planning and determination to ensure that the bus continues to be a good alternative to the car. One big test for this will be the construction of Luas towards Broombridge. This will impact greatly on buses in the city and the thousands of passengers who use them. The city council, NTA, RPA and Dublin Bus need to get this project right without too much impact.

In order for the bus to succeed in the future, it needs to be affordable and interact seamlessly with other modes of transport. The days of deciding whether to take the bus or train or tram are gone. Operators need to view passengers as taking a journey rather than their journey. This is where the NTA and Leap need to come into play. Buses need to be frequent, at least on core routes.

KD345 wrote: »

Considering the current economic situation, I think the bus will remain the dominant form of public transport in Dublin. Whether Dublin Bus continues to be the main player is really up to the NTA. Once the fare structure in Dublin is sorted out, I don't think passengers will care what bus operator they use.

A lot has changed since 1999. 12 years ago there was no Luas, the road network was not as good, and the city was not as big as it is now.

I think one major factor which caused many to switch to cars was how the city developed. The planning was pretty awful, with large housing developmens being built in areas without any thought to public transport. Areas like Adamstown, Ongar, Citywest, Leopardstown etc. all opened with residents moving in and having no choice to buy a car. Of course, this was at a time when people had cash to spend on a car, or at least get a bank loan without much hassle.

Dublin Bus found it hard to keep up with the pressure for buses in these areas. The fleet expanded greatly between 2000-2005 to try cope with demand. Despite this, the lack of joined up thinking meant it took years for a dedicated decent bus service to reach places like Belarmine and Adamstown. In the meantime, people had switched to using cars.

I believe another failure has been the lack of orbital routes across the city. Right through the noughties, and still to this day, there was a belief that all frequent bus services should just go to or through the city centre. Despite areas like Leixlip, Swords, Citywest, Grange Castle and Sandyford now employing thousands of people and all having good access to the M50, there was no recognition of this and people who before commuted into town now found their company or work being out of the city and had no option but to drive.

The OP asks about the future, and I do believe that the bus will play an important role. As great as Luas and Dart are, they still don't penetrate the areas of Dublin like the bus does. I also don't think the country will be flush with cash in the near future to develop any major rail project or BRT, so with that in mind, it will take joined up planning and determination to ensure that the bus continues to be a good alternative to the car. One big test for this will be the construction of Luas towards Broombridge. This will impact greatly on buses in the city and the thousands of passengers who use them. The city council, NTA, RPA and Dublin Bus need to get this project right without too much impact.

In order for the bus to succeed in the future, it needs to be affordable and interact seamlessly with other modes of transport. The days of deciding whether to take the bus or train or tram are gone. Operators need to view passengers as taking a journey rather than their journey. This is where the NTA and Leap need to come into play. Buses need to be frequent, at least on core routes.

A very good analysis.

The only point that I'd add is that orbital routes are notoriously difficult to plan for the simple reason that unlike radial routes, where many people's trips coincide with one another, most orbital trips tend to have unique start and end places. That makes it all the more difficult to plan the routes as they need to serve major focus points, such as shopping centres, hospitals and industrial/business parks, in order to gain decent load factors. This leads to the common observation that they "go all over the place".

That being said there certainly should have been a far greater effort to provide such routes.

monument wrote: »

Buses have dominance in London. The Tube:

"With around three and a half million journeys made each day, on 11 lines serving 270 stations, we are now running more services than ever before on the 140-year-old network"- TfL

And London Buses:

"Approximately 7,500 iconic red buses carry more than six million passengers each weekday on a network serving all parts of Greater London." - TfL

Bus use in London has increased over the last 10 years, along with cycling. More data here showing all rail services and all buses (although they bunch the limited tram services in London with bus and not rail): http://londontransportdata.wordpress.com/category/subject/modal-share/

Whilst London Buses tend to viewed by many as secondary to the Overground/Underground,the reality is they are supportive and,at times directly parallell to it.

What makes London Buses so different to Dublin is the vast amount of centrally and locally funded support poured into it.

Added to this is the reality that Transport for London really is a coherent and forward thinking Public Transport Organization,but it has to be borne in kind that it is omnipotent in all transport matters London wide,not just buses.

For example,the introduction of Lord Mayor Ken Livingstons original Congestion Charge Zone was coupled with 300 new buses on CC zone routes to facilitate substantial frequency improvements and route re-alignments.

It is highly unlikely that,without an insurrection,Dublin could ever see the type of inter-agency cooperation and shared-goals which tend to allow London's Public Transport to function as it does.

However it is still worth considering the effect that Local Taxation has on the issue,as without some form of ring-fenced funding not very much will happen.

monument wrote: »

Buses have dominance in London. The Tube:

"With around three and a half million journeys made each day, on 11 lines serving 270 stations, we are now running more services than ever before on the 140-year-old network"- TfL

And London Buses:

"Approximately 7,500 iconic red buses carry more than six million passengers each weekday on a network serving all parts of Greater London." - TfL

Bus use in London has increased over the last 10 years, along with cycling. More data here showing all rail services and all buses (although they bunch the limited tram services in London with bus and not rail): http://londontransportdata.wordpress.com/category/subject/modal-share/

Sorry, but your conclusion based on that data is seriously flawed, that is the problem with just looking at simplistic figures without context.

Yes there are more bus "journeys" per day than Tube but that is only a small part of the whole story.

It does not include the National Rail network which provides most of the rail services to South London (only 30 of the 270 LU stations are south of the Thames) and a number of trunk routes across the rest of London.

It also does not define what these journeys are, average journey lengths by bus in London are far shorter than rail/tube/DLR (and far shorter than Dublin Bus) and long single bus commutes are relatively uncommon with rail taking the vast majority of that traffic.

The fare structures also promote short bus journeys both as standalone journeys and as connections to/from trunk rail routes as for the vast majority using travelcards and oyster additional bus journeys are free.

Also skewing the figures is that all under 16s and under 18s in education living in London get unlimited free bus use but have to pay (child rate or 1/2 adult rate) on rail modes, so unsurprisingly they use the buses far more than rail. And in a somewhat familiar story there is a growing issue of apparent abuse of this scheme with adolescents using their free travel inappropriately.