Golf Betting Log

redzerdrog · 28-04-2013 8:21pm

redzerdrog wrote: »

1pt win kevin Stadler @32.0

in the clubhouse at -11 so taking a chance that the leader dont shoot a really low score this evening

Adfed stANLY at 12/1 1pt

If horschel wins i will crack up!!!

redzerdrog · 29-04-2013 9:42pm

fancy Simpson for this so just trying to get the best price/terms on offer for him.

For now I was messing about picking doubles for another site and came up with with:
mcIlroy & simpson into Noran and Dubuisson

so I did them for the craic and did 0.75pt doubles which works out at 3pts outlay

redzerdrog · 01-05-2013 1:56pm

staying away from singles in the china open for the time being, I might get involved in play. Just having a look at the Indonesian Masters aswell at the minute so will most likely do a speclutive e/w trixie across the events later with Paul Lawrie my most likely pick from the china open.

Wells Fargo

1st round leader
B. Watson 1pt E/W @ 33/1

Outright
W. Simpson 4pt win @ 20/1
L. Glover 1pt E/W @ 50/1 paying 6 places
D.A. Points 1pt E/W @ 50/q paying 6 places

This weeks outlay so far: 13pts

Current Ballance: -92.5pts

redzerdrog · 02-05-2013 11:00am

0.5 pt e/w trixie lawrie stenson and weisburger

Outlay 4pts

redzerdrog · 09-05-2013 10:55am

Outright
Luke Donald 4pt e/w @ 20/1 paying 7 places
Pretty easy choice for my main bet. Good recent form, good course form and conditions should suit.

Billy Horschel 1pt e/w @ 66/1 paying 6 places
Wasn't planning on backing him initially as he was 40/1 when first looking and the fact no first timer has ever won the players. Then when researching it I found out he actually lives locally and has played the course regularly added to the fact he was 66/1, has excellent recent form and the soft conditions could suit him. I found it hard to leave him out again!!

Ben Crane 0.5pt win @170.0
Brian Davis 0.5 win @ 280.0
Two lively outsiders who have a good chance if on form again in theory the course should suit

Left out Westwood and Stenson. I might back Westwood in play if the right opportunity arises. Begrudgingly left out Stenson as he was a bit too short considering last weeks performance.

First Round Leader

Justin Rose 1pt win @55.0
Someone who is quick out of the blocks, he ranks 2nd for scoring before the cut, so when I saw 55.0 i thought it was too big

Ben Crane 0.5pt win @70.0
Brian Davis 0.5pt win @130.0

This weeks outlay 13pts

Balance -105.5

redzerdrog · 12-05-2013 5:57pm

well that was a disaster, gutted I didn't back stenson although i have him in tipping comp.

Gonna back a few in running here as with woods in contention he is obviously a short price but it means better prices on everyone else.

Added

1pt win on david lynn @60.0

redzerdrog · 12-05-2013 7:37pm

0.5pt win leisman @120.0

edit: he just birdied another to go -10 gona watch closly but might lay back my stake if he trades any lower

redzerdrog · 12-05-2013 8:19pm

redzerdrog wrote: »

0.5pt win leisman @120.0

edit: he just birdied another to go -10 gona watch closly but might lay back my stake if he trades any lower

ugh go to eat my dinner and come back to see he gave all 3 shots back:mad:

redzerdrog · 14-05-2013 5:22pm

I haven't got much interest this week as I am too busy threatening to start study for my exams next week.

only bet for me is an each way patent with one from each tournie

0.5 pt E/W Patent - 7pt outlay

Jason Day @14/1
Peter Uilien @22/1
G Mac @8/1

redzerdrog · 19-05-2013 3:54pm

redzerdrog wrote: »

I haven't got much interest this week as I am too busy threatening to start study for my exams next week.

only bet for me is an each way patent with one from each tournie

0.5 pt E/W Patent - 7pt outlay

Jason Day @14/1
Peter Uilien @22/1 Winner
G Mac @8/1 Winner

Boom!! Profit!!

bobwilliams · 19-05-2013 6:06pm

redzerdrog wrote: »

Boom!! Profit!!

Nice one,how much cash did you pocket?

redzerdrog · 19-05-2013 6:14pm

bobwilliams wrote: »

Nice one,how much cash did you pocket?

think it will work out at a bit over €700 because i cant see Day placing this evening, you wouldn't believe how close i came to putting Bradley into the bet instead of day, I even tipped him in a tipping comp! would have been some sweat but happy with the weekend of golf.

Although I have got zero study done as a result and I have an exam tomorrow!! Have to take the rough with the smooth I suppose

redzerdrog · 19-05-2013 7:11pm

Day making a bit of headway ti give me the slightest optimism of a place.

Just added 2pts win on Charl @27.0 aswell to give me some interest for the evening

will update my running balance at the end of play today because it a bit all over the place at the minute

redzerdrog · 19-05-2013 11:44pm

Balance before this week -107pts

This weeks outlay: 9pts in total

0.5 pt E/W Patent
Jason Day @14/1
Peter Uilien @22/1 winner
G Mac @8/1 winner

Returned +141.5pts

:):)

Overall Balance: +25.5pts

redzerdrog · 21-05-2013 11:48pm

BMW PGA Championship
I will start with the market leaders for this. Although I do like Luke Donald and his record here is excellent i cant have him at 8/1 i think it is way too short for his current form if he was 12/1+ id start to consider him. Rory has a poor record here and with the wind expected to howl i dont fancy him as i dont think he particularly likes the windy conditions. Rose is too short aswell and he has putted terribly of late which is kinda ironic that my main selection here is Lee Westood. I really like him for this he has been in good form of late, has good course form and his putting/scrambling have improved no end and his accuracy is exactly what is needed here.

Apart from westwood i dont have any particularly strong fancies for this. I put Siem into my multiples in the hope that he will play well as he is currently 67th in the world ranking and the top 70 qualify for the US Open. I have gone for some small bets on outsiders with decent course form in Khan and Whiteford at big prices.

Crown Plaza Invitational
This tournament is so wide open I could have easily picked 10 in it. The two I have gone for I think are reasonably priced. Firstly Charl Schwartzel he never made a putt last week yet was still there abouts at the weekend and tee to green he was almost impeccable (18th excluded) and that is exactly what is needed around this tight track. Accuracy is the most important factor here and I am willing to overlook its his debut here. The next player is someone how has been there abouts for the last number of weeks without getting it done and i think he will win one at some stage this year, Charley Hoffman . He is not someone that i am generally inclined to back but at 50/1 i think its a decent price.

Bets
Westwood 3.5pts win @13.5
Whiteford 0.5pt win @380.0
Khan 0.5pt win @350.0

Schwartzel 2pt win @15/1
Hoffman 1pt E/W @ 50/1 1/4odds paying 5 places

Multiples
0.5pt E/W Doubles (outlay 4pts)
Westwood/Siem 6 places
&
Schwartzel/Hoffman 5 places

This weeks outlay so far:12.5pts

redzerdrog · 26-05-2013 8:33pm

Ugh fml that was a disaster on a day! I am working on the only source of internet i have is my fone!
So was checking the scores throughout the day and thought westwood had it in the bag early on so when khan hit 9.00 i laid off for 4 points just to get something back from him.
Then westwood blows up and khan is in the playoff with the cashout option fluctuating between 300 and 400 i decide that if it hits 400 again i will cash out and then bam my fone went dead without any warning that the battery was low.
So what should have been a very profitable weekend has turned into a nightmare. I am gona re evaluate the strategy of backing at big prices on betfair instead of taking the lower prices but each way.
Just a sickner of a day!

redzerdrog · 27-05-2013 10:57pm

Balance before last week: +25.5pts

Weeks Outlay: 12.5pts

Returns: 4pts

Current Balance: +17pts

This haven't quite got over the disappointment of the weekend but just deciding on my bets for this week. I think I need my head checked because I am toying with the idea of Westwood again

:mad:

:(:eek:

redzerdrog · 29-05-2013 9:20am

These are the bets I have done so far for this week

1pt e/w on Kucher @20/1 paying 6 places

1pt e/w on Illonen @40/1 paying 5 places

1pt e/w double Kucher/Illonen

2pt win double Woods @9/4 & Weisburger @28/1

I have some others that I am trying for big prices on betfair and will update if they get matched for the top 5 in the nordea masters

redzerdrog · 30-05-2013 11:59am

nordea masters

Pablo Martin Benavides 1pt top 5 @100.0
Niklas Lemke 0.75pt top5 @100.0 (will be 1pt if it gets matched)

redzerdrog · 02-06-2013 11:16am

more than likely gona have a saver on Noren and possibly 1 or 2 in america when I get to the bookies in the afternoon. I will be out on the beer for the day from then on but will try update at some stage.

redzerdrog · 03-06-2013 4:31am

Will updatr tomortoe but for now i havdv 1 word!!!

Boom!!!!!

redzerdrog · 03-06-2013 1:48pm

redzerdrog wrote: »

These are the bets I have done so far for this week

1pt e/w on Kucher @20/1 paying 6 places

1pt e/w on Illonen @40/1 paying 5 places

1pt e/w double Kucher/Illonen

2pt win double Woods @9/4 & Weisburger @28/1

I have some others that I am trying for big prices on betfair and will update if they get matched for the top 5 in the nordea masters

Get in!!!!

did some savers yesterday aswell
8pts on noren
2pts on chapple
2pts on stanley

redzerdrog · 03-06-2013 1:52pm

balance before the weekend:+17pts

This weeks total outlay:22pts

this weeks returns: 1006pts

:):):):):):)

Balance: +1001pts

:D:D:D:D:D:D

MUFC91CS · 05-06-2013 11:00am

redzerdrog wrote: »

balance before the weekend:+17pts

This weeks total outlay:22pts

this weeks returns: 1006pts:):):):):):)

Balance: +1001pts :D:D:D:D:D:D

Nice one man, cant wait for you to put up your tips for this week ha

redzerdrog · 05-06-2013 1:10pm

MUFC91CS wrote: »

Nice one man, cant wait for you to put up your tips for this week ha

They are on the way!

redzerdrog · 05-06-2013 1:22pm

Was very interested in Weisberger this week but the threat of the tournament becoming shortened I think his price is too short but I wouldn't but anyone off backing him.

Lyoness open
1pt E/W Joost Luiten @22/1
1pt E/W R. Karlberg @33/1

St Jude
1pt E/W Boo Weekley @33/1
1pt E/W R. Karlsson @33/1

0.5pt E/W doubles with the above: outlay of 4pts

This weeks outlay:12pts

MUFC91CS · 06-06-2013 1:44pm

Luiten is after flying out of the traps, 4 under after 4.

redzerdrog · 06-06-2013 1:48pm

MUFC91CS wrote: »

Luiten is after flying out of the traps, 4 under after 4.

you back him yourself?

MUFC91CS · 06-06-2013 2:01pm

redzerdrog wrote: »

you back him yourself?

Yeah, I know absolutely nothing about backing golf but love watching it at the weekends when im not working, I just generally go through the golf tips thread on this and base my selections around that. After your big hit last week, I said id get on a few of you picks

redzerdrog · 09-06-2013 3:51pm

redzerdrog wrote: »

Was very interested in Weisberger this week but the threat of the tournament becoming shortened I think his price is too short but I wouldn't but anyone off backing him.

Lyoness open
1pt E/W Joost Luiten @22/1
1pt E/W R. Karlberg @33/1

St Jude
1pt E/W Boo Weekley @33/1
1pt E/W R. Karlsson @33/1

0.5pt E/W doubles with the above: outlay of 4pts

This weeks outlay:12pts

Luiten is going well so hopefully he can get over the line

have nobody in contention in America so just added a small bet there on someone I have backed a few times this year

1.5pt win on patrick Reed @33.0

redzerdrog · 09-06-2013 5:06pm

redzerdrog wrote: »

Lyoness open
1pt E/W Joost Luiten @22/1

Boom!!!

another profitable week

the above returns 29.5pts

redzerdrog · 09-06-2013 11:07pm

Old Balance: +1001pts

This weeks outlay:13.5pts

This weeks returns: +29.5pts

Current Balance: +1017pts

Delighted to get another win on the board and to see the points total so far in the positive. I know it is still a small sample size but to go from over 100pts down to this give me great pleasure

redzerdrog · 11-06-2013 1:22pm

Ok I have gone a bit overboard with my staking this week but after a good couple of weeks I may aswell plus I always stake a bit more for majors. I havent bothered with the european tour this week either.

Much has been said about Merion and how tight it is off the tee etc but a lot of these guys wont even use a wood off the tee never mind a driver. After looking at the stats and the course layout I decided to look at GIR, approaches from 150+ and par 4 scoring rather than driving accuracy stats. But I didnt use these stats to solely make my picks rather to narrow down my selections.

Firstly I hadnt intended backing woods originally but at 6/1 I couldnt resist considering this course requires course management as much as anything and this man is the best in the business. Plus i cant wait the see his trademark stinger shot:)

Justin Rose although he doesnt top any of the key stats per se he is consistent across all areas I looked at.

Rickie Fowler is selected due to his course form when playing Walker Cup here, he had a great record and is one of few players with any course form

Stricker is up there with the best for GIR (although he hasnt enough rounds for his stats to qualify for the pga website when you break them down he is near the top) add that to the fact he is an amazing putter

Bill Haas is someone i was very undecided about but I feel par 5s has been his down fall and Merion only has 2 of them while he ranks 2nd overall for par 4 performance and also in the top 10 for GIR from 150+

Stenson is next and although I havent put much weight into driving accuracy this guy is ranked number 1 but also ranked 3rd in GIR but in particular he is 1st for GIR from 175-200yards. Just hope his scrambling doesnt let him down.

U.S Open Bets
8pts E/W Woods @6/1 paying 6 places
4pts E/W Rose @28/1 paying 7 places
2pts E/W Stricker @50/1 paying 7 places
2pts E/W Fowler @66/1 paying 7 places
2pts E/W Haas @66/1 paying 7 places
2pts E/W Stenson @66/1 paying 7 places

Total Outlay: 40pts

redzerdrog · 11-06-2013 1:46pm

Just wondering does anyone even read these posts or am I talking to myself? Is there any point me giving reasoning for the selections?

MUFC91CS · 11-06-2013 2:06pm

redzerdrog wrote: »

Just wondering does anyone even read these posts or am I talking to myself? Is there any point me giving reasoning for the selections?

I read it every time I'm on boards and there is any new post here and I really appreciate the reasoning behind each selection.

Thanks also for tipping Luiten last week

that was a timely bankroll boost before this weeks major.

Keep up the good work.

h2005 · 11-06-2013 10:55pm

I`m reading thanks. Where are you getting those prices from?

Johnny86 · 11-06-2013 11:06pm

I read them too also mate!

redzerdrog · 11-06-2013 11:51pm

h2005 wrote: »

I`m reading thanks. Where are you getting those prices from?

Those prices are from a local bookmakers park racing but as far as i know they take a lit of their prices from powers who are also paying 7 if you bet from mobile.

Woods was with betfair sportsbook

h2005 · 11-06-2013 11:58pm

redzerdrog wrote: »

Those prices are from a local bookmakers park racing but as far as i know they take a lit of their prices from powers who are also paying 7 if you bet from mobile.

Woods was with betfair sportsbook

Thanks mate

Mikeyt086 · 12-06-2013 4:46pm

This is my first time seeing this log but it looks excellent to me and I'll be checking back regularly. Reasoning behind the picks being a major factor for me.

redzerdrog · 12-06-2013 7:06pm

I hadn't intended getting involved in this event but after finalising my US open bets early I had some time on my hands. This event has a big mixture of european tour journeymen and up and coming challenge tour players. The favourites are Simon Dyson who has been in shocking form this year and then a fella called Brooks Koepka who i hadn't heard of but after looking him up his recent form on the lesser tours is quite impressive but i feel his price is a bit short.
I think the value here could be Mark Tullo who was 3rd here last year and has been in decent form of late in particular when 2nd to Peter Uihlien (who I had backed) in the Medeira Open and few starts back. I also had a small speculative bet on young French (the event is in france) challenge tour player Edouard Dubois how has a 2nd and 3rd in events in recent weeks.

Bets
2pt E/W Mark Tullo @33/1 paying 5 places
0.5pt Win Edouard Dubois @120.0

redzerdrog · 13-06-2013 8:25pm

the way today has gone i fancy one of the late starters to be 1st round leader so just took a small bit of westwood FRL for a bit of interest

0.5pt win westwood first round leader @33/1

redzerdrog · 14-06-2013 9:24am

redzerdrog wrote: »

Bets
2pt E/W Mark Tullo @33/1 paying 5 places

well that went well

redzerdrog · 14-06-2013 5:47pm

1pt e/w harrington @200/1 paying 4 places

hoping this tough challenge might just suit him

redzerdrog · 17-06-2013 1:06am

redzerdrog wrote: »

U.S Open Bets
8pts E/W Woods @6/1 paying 6 places
4pts E/W Rose @28/1 paying 7 places
2pts E/W Stricker @50/1 paying 7 places
2pts E/W Fowler @66/1 paying 7 places
2pts E/W Haas @66/1 paying 7 places
2pts E/W Stenson @66/1 paying 7 places

Am raging about the woods bet it was a shocking bet and I hadnt intended backing him but just had an impulse

Stricker, fowler and stenson all gave me a run for my money and unlucky not to grab a place with one of them.

And then there is Justin Rose well there is one word for that

BOOM!

Johnny86 · 17-06-2013 3:28pm

redzerdrog wrote: »

Am raging about the woods bet it was a shocking bet and I hadnt intended backing him but just had an impulse

Stricker, fowler and stenson all gave me a run for my money and unlucky not to grab a place with one of them.

And then there is Justin Rose well there is one word for that

BOOM!

Well done, was on Horschel all week myself. Got the place money but could have traded out for a bit more.

redzerdrog · 17-06-2013 6:43pm

Old Balance: +1017pts

This weeks total outlay: 47pts (due to going a bit overboard after recent success)

This weeks returns: +148pts

Current Balance: +1118pts

:):pac::eek:

MUFC91CS · 18-06-2013 2:07pm

Great picks, was on all them again. Was not overly impressed when Phil chipped in for eagle, thought he would push on from there. Thanks again.

redzerdrog · 18-06-2013 2:14pm

yeh he gave me a few scares throughout that final round particularly the approach on 16, I nearly put my back out jumping up when rose nearly holed out on 18.

Might not get to write up all my picks for this week until tomorrow but one I do fancy for the travellers in John Rollins he is currently 40/1 with betfair fixed odds on but I expect that to shorten to a max of 33/1 and maybe shorter in places. So if you planning on backing him id get on as soon as you can

redzerdrog · 18-06-2013 2:48pm

I will put these picks up early even though I havent finalised all my bets yet. I will edit this post later as I add my other selections.

Both events are relatively short courses and I expect pretty low scoring in both events. Neither course particularly suits one type of golfer over another but one of the stats worth looking at in the U.S event is birdie averages and par 4 scoring as it is a par 70 course with 2 par fives.

It is also a difficult week to get a handle on things with see many teeing up in both events the week after a grueling U.S open. Two that I am considering in the Travelers are Rickie Fowler and Jason Dufner but I am worried about the effects of the weekend and the 2nd thing is there price is quite short so for now I havent put them in but I wouldnt put anyone off backing either.

My First selection for the Travelers in John Rollins who ticks so many boxes this week. Although he doesnt top any of the stats I looked at he is very consistent across all the scoring stats, he has very good course form with a 4th and 2nd here the last 2 years he is also in good recent form witha 6th and 4th in his last two events add that to the fact he should be well rested after not playing in the U.S Open at 40s he is very good value.
My second selection is another who is well rested after not playing the US open and it is Brian Davis. He has decent course form finishing 4th and 9th the last two years and although he recent form isnt brilliant it is decent enough with only 1 mc in the last 10 events so hopefully he can kick on in a course that should suit him. I think he is a good bet at 66/1

For the BMW international it is a difficult one to assess with the market leaders all playing the U.S Open last week and being short enough in the betting for me to avoid. I am considering Thomas Bjorn but I havent pulled the trigger on him yet he is a former course winner and is in good recent form I am just trying to way up if the price is value or not I will update if I do pull the trigger. My first bet for this is Joost Luiten he had a nice break after winning two weeks ago and we already saw brett rumford win in quick succession on the european tour this year so I am hoping Joost can repeat. In a low scoring course Joost is very capable of shooting low and has good course form finishing 3rd and 11th the last 2 years the event took place here. Would have prefered 33s but happy enough to take 28s about Luiten.

Bets
Travellers Championship
2pt E/W John Rollins @ 40/1
1pt E/W Brian Davis @66/1

BMW Chamionship
2pt E/W Joost Luiten @28/1

Mulitibles
0.5 e/w doubles with luiten into rollins and davis (2pt outlay)

Golf Betting Log

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