Fiscal Treaty Megathread [Poll Reset]

donegal_road · 02-06-2012 3:04am

K-9 wrote: »

That wasn't the Treaty you were voting on but how and ever.

yes, that is the ESM treaty which is soon to be ratified. I stand corrected :rolleyes:

nice_very · 02-06-2012 3:18am

the absolute fcuking disgusting arrogant cheek of that fcuking dope from mayo and his sidekick, very soon after the result was declared:

reporter - enda kenny, it was said by minister noonan that a YES vote will mean an easier budget, can you confirm this? (paraphrased)

enda kenny - NO he didnt say that, he said a NO vote would mean a harsher budget

is this not the same thing??? not 10 minutes after the result was announced... fcuking dare any yes voters try and bawl and whinge in my earshot...

also the way he spoke about Gerry Adams at the same press conference, and how he spoke to the reporters in that dismissive tone he has come to adopt recently... my blood is fcuking boiling

donegal_road · 02-06-2012 3:34am

K-9 wrote: »

That wasn't the Treaty you were voting on but how and ever.

by the way, have you any opinions on Articles 32- 36 you would like to share?

zom · 02-06-2012 8:14am

Now, after Ireland voted YES, we should expect fast unemployment fall, lot of foreign companies coming to start serious businesses here, God bless Enda!

mintoffdom · 02-06-2012 8:21am

ThisRegard wrote: »

Is it just me or is there a higher amount of nutters around today than usual for AH?

It's just you.

02-06-2012 9:41am

doovdela wrote: »

Basically Ireland would sink or swim then depending on the outcome of the vote?

It makes little difference to the Eurozone whatever way we voted, it's whether the Eurozone stays together or disintegrates that determines whether we will sink or swim.

At this stage I expect that it will disintegrate within the next two years, the fact that there has been a capital flight from all of the PIIGS to Germany indicates that many investors feel the same.

The debts owed to German banks & the ECB are so huge, they'll never get repaid.

It would be better to breakup the Eurozone, write-down the debts, revert to national currencies, let the new currency revalue and start again.

I don't expect the "An Punt Nua" to devalue by much", it's the "Neu Deutschmark" that will revalue up by as much as %50 that scares the Germans.

Stark · 02-06-2012 10:37am

nice_very wrote: »

the absolute fcuking disgusting arrogant cheek of that fcuking dope from mayo and his sidekick, very soon after the result was declared:

reporter - enda kenny, it was said by minister noonan that a YES vote will mean an easier budget, can you confirm this? (paraphrased)

enda kenny - NO he didnt say that, he said a NO vote would mean a harsher budget

is this not the same thing??? not 10 minutes after the result was announced... fcuking dare any yes voters try and bawl and whinge in my earshot...

Yes = planned budget
No = possibly harder budget than planned (due to higher projected cost of borrowing).

There was no option for easier than planned budget.

gurramok · 02-06-2012 10:41am

nice_very wrote: »

reporter - enda kenny, it was said by minister noonan that a YES vote will mean an easier budget, can you confirm this? (paraphrased)

enda kenny - NO he didnt say that, he said a NO vote would mean a harsher budget

is this not the same thing??? not 10 minutes after the result was announced... fcuking dare any yes voters try and bawl and whinge in my earshot...

A yes vote means a harsh budget, a no vote would of meant harsher budgets. Austerity is here to clean up the FF mess no matter way you voted, a yes vote means we have access to cheaper money to borrow in the long run.

K-9 · 02-06-2012 1:17pm

donegal_road wrote: »

by the way, have you any opinions on Articles 32- 36 you would like to share?

Considering what the ESM is for, not particularly.

My name is URL · 02-06-2012 1:39pm

Krugman with more to say about the Fiscal Compact

ONE OF THE WORLD’S leading economists has rubbished the Fiscal Compact as a “bad idea”, saying he cannot understand Ireland’s vote to ratify it – but believes the euro could collapse within two years anyway.

Nobel laureate Paul Krugman this morning said Irish voters should have voted only to support “what is right, rather than trying to appease the Bundesbank”.

The New York Times columnist – who on Wednesday had advised Ireland to vote No – told RTÉ Radio 1′s ‘The Business’ that there was a “fifty-fifty” chance of the single currency disappearing within two years anyway, given the pressures arising in Greece.

http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/krugman-ireland-voted-for-a-bad-idea-and-euro-could-collapse-in-two-years-472618-Jun2012/

But sure what does he know? :rolleyes:

Wibbs · 02-06-2012 1:46pm

Deleted User wrote: »

It makes little difference to the Eurozone whatever way we voted, it's whether the Eurozone stays together or disintegrates that determines whether we will sink or swim.

At this stage I expect that it will disintegrate within the next two years, the fact that there has been a capital flight from all of the PIIGS to Germany indicates that many investors feel the same.

The debts owed to German banks & the ECB are so huge, they'll never get repaid.

It would be better to breakup the Eurozone, write-down the debts, revert to national currencies, let the new currency revalue and start again.

I don't expect the "An Punt Nua" to devalue by much", it's the "Neu Deutschmark" that will revalue up by as much as %50 that scares the Germans.

If people are complaining about austerity now, then they'll have a very valid complaint if the Euro fails. As for a punt not devaluing by much I'd beg to differ. I'd see it lose a third overnight at the very least, then if the markets sniff blood we'd be in real trouble. Sure the devalued punt would mean a good thing for exports, but import prices would go through the roof. Given a good chunk of our exports rely on imports such as oil to one degree or other the export prices would have to go up too, removing many of the gains that devaluation would bring. Availability of credit would be severely curtailed, money for public spending would come with a big, if not impossible pricetag. Never mind climbing interest rates. Pretty much each and every one of us would be negatively affected.

Scioch · 02-06-2012 1:51pm

I hear a lot of people talking about not wanting the budgets decided by Germany and this sort of thing.

Firstly the budgets wont be decided by Germany, a worst case scenario is us having to manage ourselves how the treaty outlines. Which is what the Irish people have agreed to.

Our budgets will always be affected by those who are lending us the money, thats not going to change. And we will always need to control our debt to GDP. So its nothing we wouldnt be doing already or have to do anyway is it ?

Hypothetically speaking is the need to protect "sovereignty"/ability to control our own economic policy more important than the stability of the country and the protection of those in it ? We have a single currency and need a common economic policy.

I tried to discuss this with several people recently on the No side of the treaty but it was impossible. Everything led back to the elite bailing out bankers in their eyes. I respect their passion and their want to do right by the people but it makes it very hard to discuss the way forward when they are fixated on the past. Yes it was disgustingly wrong to bail out the banks and force it on the people.

I voted SF/ULA in the last election because of that. We needed someone to stop that at the time and seek a new way forward. In hindsight it I was rather naive in terms of what I thought they could do I suppose but I dont regret going out and trying to make a change. But it didnt happen and here we are, we must go on from here and surely common policy with other Eurozone member states to protect the currency and offer struggling countries low interest funds for stability is the best way forward ? Considering we will likely need access to that stability mechanism ourselves.

Wibbs · 02-06-2012 1:52pm

My name is URL wrote: »

Krugman with more to say about the Fiscal Compact

http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/krugman-ireland-voted-for-a-bad-idea-and-euro-could-collapse-in-two-years-472618-Jun2012/

But sure what does he know? :rolleyes:

So what? What I mean is, if the Euro goes tits up in two years a yes or no vote would mean feck all anyway. The game would be reset and we'd just change the constitution back, or ignore them as they'd have zero practical purpose anymore. If it doesn't go tits up then it's better to inside than out with some hope of support from the rest of the EU. Not saying no would mean we'd get none, but it would be a harder sell and might have come with a bigger pricetag.

02-06-2012 2:00pm

Sure ,the market will prey on members of the scattered heard one by one but Spain and Italy would make very good catches.

As for devaluation, I don't disagree, I just think that we have a better chance than Spain and Italy in avoiding major devaluation, need to look up the current "hamburger test" figures to get an idea on how much it will fall by.

Austerity is coming regardless of whatever comes out of the current Euro situation, the export of jobs to cheaper countries and the ever increasing cost of oil (OK we're in a temporary retrenching of price right now) coupled with our expensive (& unsustainable) lifestyles make it inevitable!

We will be forced to live within our means, the fiscal compact just makes that a bit harder.

K-9 · 02-06-2012 2:01pm

My name is URL wrote: »

Krugman with more to say about the Fiscal Compact

http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/krugman-ireland-voted-for-a-bad-idea-and-euro-could-collapse-in-two-years-472618-Jun2012/

But sure what does he know? :rolleyes:

I'd very much agree on Greece. It seems they want to stay in the Euro but have their debts scrapped, but still go on with unrealistic budget deficits.

Wibbs wrote: »

If people are complaining about austerity now, then they'll have a very valid complaint if the Euro fails. As for a punt not devaluing by much I'd beg to differ. I'd see it lose a third overnight at the very least, then if the markets sniff blood we'd be in real trouble. Sure the devalued punt would mean a good thing for exports, but import prices would go through the roof. Given a good chunk of our exports rely on imports such as oil to one degree or other the export prices would have to go up too, removing many of the gains that devaluation would bring. Availability of credit would be severely curtailed, money for public spending would come with a big, if not impossible pricetag. Never mind climbing interest rates. Pretty much each and every one of us would be negatively affected.

I can't see much reason why it would be much less than a third either, the markets would be in absolute turmoil if it got to that stage.

Dave! · 02-06-2012 3:48pm

My name is URL wrote: »

Krugman with more to say about the Fiscal Compact

http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/krugman-ireland-voted-for-a-bad-idea-and-euro-could-collapse-in-two-years-472618-Jun2012/

But sure what does he know? :rolleyes:

Did you listen to the interview or just read bullet points?

Listen here
http://www.rte.ie/radio1/thebusiness/

He's arguing against the austerity measures in Europe as a whole, but acknowledges that nobody else will lend money to Ireland at the moment. He points out that Ireland doesn't really have any choice but to continue with the current policies.

He said that we should have voted No on the basis that the whole European austerity programme is a bad idea, and we should only vote for "what is right", so therefore it makes sense that we wouldn't vote for this!

Nice in principle, but in practical terms Ireland voting No wouldn't change the Europe-wide austerity policies, so why would we cut ourselves off from funding from the ESM, and stick 2 fingers up to Europe? I'd say international investors would be *dying* to come to Ireland then! Actually weren't most of the business groups urging a Yes vote...

SafeSurfer · 02-06-2012 5:29pm

The financial crisis in Ireland can be an oppourtunity to make some really radical changes to the way we do things in Ireland.

Unfortunately what is arguably the greatest calamity the country has experienced since independence has seen no attempt at much needed reform.

Even the Dail reform proposals are wholly inadequate. Reform and abolition of the myriad county and town councils is long overdue.

Health, social welfare and education are the areas where most savings can be made.

We must reduce the size of the state.

For example does the state really have any business being involved in the management of commercial forestry and peat extraction? Should the state still be involved in electricity generation?

Maybe its time for a graduate tax where all those availing of education subsidised by the taxpayer are expected to reimburse the public purse over the course of their working lives.

Maybe its time that the state has first call on the estates of deceased citizens who have been provided with long term nursing home care.

Maybe its time that there was an annual charge on land, say 25 euro per hectare. This would encourage non productive land onto the letting market and encourage increased productivity in the agricultural sector.

We need to start to think outside the box and reshape our republic.

A continuation of a society which protects its elites and burdens the struggling classes is not an option.

The lack of a national conversation on how we are going to meet the terms of the fiscal treaty has been a startling factor in the treaty debate.

We can continue to implement the imposed austerity of the troika or we can come up with some radical solutions to bridge the funding gap ourselves.

The government has a massive mandate, increased by their victory in the referendum. Let us hope they have the vision and courage to make radical changes which will make Ireland a successful economy and society in the years to come.

golden lane · 02-06-2012 5:34pm

SafeSurfer wrote: »

The financial crisis in Ireland can be an oppourtunity to make some really radical changes to the way we do things in Ireland.

Unfortunately what is arguably the greatest calamity the country has experienced since independence has seen no attempt at much needed reform.

Even the Dail reform proposals are wholly inadequate. Reform and abolition of the myriad county and town councils is long overdue.

Health, social welfare and education are the areas where most savings can be made.

We must reduce the size of the state.

For example does the state really have any business being involved in the management of commercial forestry and peat extraction? Should the state still be involved in electricity generation?

Maybe its time for a graduate tax where all those availing of education subsidised by the taxpayer are expected to reimburse the public purse over the course of their working lives.

Maybe its time that the state has first call on the estates of deceased citizens who have been provided with long term nursing home care.

Maybe its time that there was an annual charge on land, say 25 euro per hectare. This would encourage non productive land onto the letting market and encourage increased productivity in the agricultural sector.

We need to start to think outside the box and reshape our republic.

A continuation of a society which protects its elites and burdens the struggling classes is not an option.

The lack of a national conversation on how we are going to meet the terms of the fiscal treaty has been a startling factor in the treaty debate.

We can continue to implement the imposed austerity of the troika or we can come up with some radical solutions to bridge the funding gap ourselves.

The government has a massive mandate, increased by their victory in the referendum. Let us hope they have the vision and courage to make radical changes which will make Ireland a successful economy and society in the years to come.

lets hope many people start thinking like you...great post..

K-9 · 02-06-2012 6:08pm

Dave! wrote: »

Did you listen to the interview or just read bullet points?

Listen here
http://www.rte.ie/radio1/thebusiness/

He's arguing against the austerity measures in Europe as a whole, but acknowledges that nobody else will lend money to Ireland at the moment. He points out that Ireland doesn't really have any choice but to continue with the current policies.

He said that we should have voted No on the basis that the whole European austerity programme is a bad idea, and we should only vote for "what is right", so therefore it makes sense that we wouldn't vote for this!

Nice in principle, but in practical terms Ireland voting No wouldn't change the Europe-wide austerity policies, so why would we cut ourselves off from funding from the ESM, and stick 2 fingers up to Europe? I'd say international investors would be *dying* to come to Ireland then! Actually weren't most of the business groups urging a Yes vote...

The ESM will be our stimulus package as is our current bailout. I think he makes very good points but he would say these things as politically he'd be against austerity.

Dyr · 03-06-2012 1:26pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

Well, let's see. Is every euro country up the creek? No. Are there non-euro countries up virtually identical creeks to euro countries? Yes.

Or right, so the line is that the euro is'nt in a currency in utter crisis right now? That's some pretty european logic right there bud

Some EU countries are doing pretty well out of this alright, but oddly enough they happen to be the same countries who've always benefited from the ECB's policies. Maybe that's just a financial from of the stockholm syndrome :rolleyes:

Scofflaw wrote: »

So, "euro as the explanation for the crisis" fails at the first logical hurdle. It certainly explains some features of the crisis - as having the punt would explain them if we had the punt - so it's certainly a factor that helps explain the shape of the crisis. But the euro as the reason for the crisis? Nope - basic logic fail.

Well no, it doesn fail, it's not the sole factor in this crisis but its a massive factor in the crisis for us, the clown car currency that was meant to drive us all into a political union has been found wanting as a currency.

03-06-2012 1:31pm

The Eurozone crisis is like having a house with dodgy foundations. while everyone is looking to underpin the house they're not looking at the big picture.
Peak oil is the coastal erosion approaching our economic house at the seaside!

Peak oil is silently removing more and more capital from the system, slowly undermining growth.

http://www.linux.bideford.devon.sch.uk/blogs/seaforlife/wp-content/uploads/house_cliff.jpg

The fiscal treaty is noting but a bit of fiddling with the window that doesn't shut properly.
Resource limitations will roll the cliff under us(all of us)!

EURATS · 03-06-2012 1:51pm

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DiiBfm_jx8g/TV1LTkRJm-I/AAAAAAAACdU/M2HfSxhne0w/s640/EURO.jpg

Lookin good Germany!!

03-06-2012 2:02pm

EURATS wrote: »

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DiiBfm_jx8g/TV1LTkRJm-I/AAAAAAAACdU/M2HfSxhne0w/s640/EURO.jpg

Lookin good Germany!!

Looked more like Mussolini, the Axe and Birch were on the Fascist Italian flag in the 1930s

EURATS · 03-06-2012 2:07pm

dolanbaker wrote: »

EURATS wrote: »

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DiiBfm_jx8g/TV1LTkRJm-I/AAAAAAAACdU/M2HfSxhne0w/s640/EURO.jpg

Lookin good Germany!!

Looked more like Mussolini, the Axe and Birch were on the Fascist Italian flag in the 1930s

Was thinking its more like Angela merkel with a few days growth, and enda kenny on steroids

Scofflaw · 03-06-2012 7:58pm

Bambi wrote: »

Or right, so the line is that the euro is'nt in a currency in utter crisis right now? That's some pretty european logic right there bud

How exactly is the euro in crisis, though? Other than people saying it may break up, what's actually wrong with it that isn't wrong with, say, sterling?

Bambi wrote: »

Some EU countries are doing pretty well out of this alright, but oddly enough they happen to be the same countries who've always benefited from the ECB's policies. Maybe that's just a financial from of the stockholm syndrome :rolleyes:

Or possibly you just don't have a better answer.

Bambi wrote: »

Well no, it doesn fail, it's not the sole factor in this crisis but its a massive factor in the crisis for us, the clown car currency that was meant to drive us all into a political union has been found wanting as a currency.

Not particularly, it just never had a crisis plan. That means the crisis plan has been being created ad hoc during the crisis, which is obviously an unnecessarily entertaining approach, but on the other hand if we had the punt they'd probably still be making it up as they went along. And the fact that the response has to be jointly negotiated certainly makes it harder for governments to appear to be doing something dynamic about the crisis, but that's not necessarily a bad thing either, given the visible public outcry for "silver bullets" and the fact that they don't exist.

Obviously, if you have some compelling argument why the euro is really the root of all the evils in those few eurozone countries affected by the global crisis, work away. Smilies and stock phrases don't really cut it in my book, though.

cordially,
Scofflaw

03-06-2012 8:17pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

How exactly is the euro in crisis, though? Other than people saying it may break up, what's actually wrong with it that isn't wrong with, say, sterling?

cordially,
Scofflaw

Put simply Sterling has one leader and one direction for one country with a common fiscal policy.

The Euro has 15 countries each pushing it in different direction via different fiscal policies. http://www.organizedchaoscomic.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/Rowers-US-vs-Japan-small1-300x265.jpg

These different policies caused all the capital to shift from many of the weaker countries to one country, causing an enormous imbalance!

http://www.wrecksite.eu/img/wrecks/neretva_1992.jpg

Dyr · 03-06-2012 8:58pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

How exactly is the euro in crisis, though? Other than people saying it may break up, what's actually wrong with it that isn't wrong with, say, sterling?

lol, superb hedging of a question there, what's wrong with my house, other than the gas company saying that it may blow up?

I mean, sure noted alarmist and eurosceptic Ollie Rehn says it may break up, but other than that its all tickety boo :
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/06/01/bloomberg_articlesM4XK876TTDS001-M4XSI.DTL

Scofflaw wrote: »

Or possibly you just don't have a better answer.

Phase two argument, inability to counter so claim the poster has no better solution. George Soros, another noted radical, has some suggestions but unfortunately to accept his premise you'd have to accept that the european strategy since maastricht was fundamentally flawed, so that's off the table I guess. Much less painful to blame it on decentralisation in Ireland etc

And the fact that the response has to be jointly negotiated certainly makes it harder for governments to appear to be doing something dynamic about the crisis, but that's not necessarily a bad thing either, given the visible public outcry for "silver bullets" and the fact that they don't exist

Yes, maybe this crisis can railroad a sceptical european public into ceding executive authority to an entity that doesn't answer to them, "not necessarily a bad thing". If the EU hadn't created the monster in first place then we wouldn't need silver bullets. And now the monster is meant to scare us into doing what it's creators wanted us to do all along? Ollie Rehn cackles from the castle laboratory:

“We’re either headed for a deterioration of the euro area or a gradual strengthening of the European Union.”

I don't even have to reach for my tin hat to see the conspiracy theory there buddy.

Obviously, if you have some compelling argument why the euro is really the root of all the evils in those few eurozone countries affected by the global crisis, work away. Smilies and stock phrases don't really cut it in my book, though.

Who said anything about "the root of all evils"? Stock phrases don't cut it buddy, remember? It's not the root of all evils, its the mother of all f**k ups,

Buddily,
Bambi

Censorship · 03-06-2012 9:15pm

Here is a very informative video on youTube that explains the treaty.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xC65JMHLVxY

dvpower · 03-06-2012 9:35pm

^^ rereg?

darkhorse · 04-06-2012 12:23am

donegal_road wrote: »

when the ESM treaty is passed in the next couple of weeks, our first payment to the ESM will be in July, and will be for €254 million, and again in October for the same amount. We have to pay €11 billion towards the ESM now that we have signed up for it... this is in on-top of our bank debt... it is akin to a patient of life support being asked to donate blood

Hi donegal_road,

I could'nt have put it better myself.
John

Fiscal Treaty Megathread [Poll Reset]

Comments