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Virgin Media subscriber numbers

«134567

Comments

  • #2
    Damien360
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,597 ✭✭✭Damien360


    I would be asking why so many of the analogue customers failed to convert to digital.

    What is central to their income . Tv or broadband. If tv is the cornerstone then they need to do something.

    It also is highlighted by the number of new broadband customers that also failed to take their tv package .

    Personally, compared to sky their tv box is rubbish for quality of output (resolution). I have their broadband and phone but continue to use sky for tv.

    Efibre is now in my area and it will all depend on pricing for me to keep or dump them despite no issues with their service.


  • #3
    icdg
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 11,854 Mod ✭✭✭✭icdg


    It's because cable was for many years the "default" TV service for most people in Dublin, during the 1990s (when, let us not forget, Sky didn't have the UK terrestrials) it had a massive take up of homes passed - in certain areas practically everyone had it).

    The high number of analogue only households still remaining is a legacy of this era. These are people who are happy with what they've got (which is nearly double the number of channels that Saorview only homes have), can't have or don't want a satellite dish, and have no real incentive to switch to digital. Only UPC deciding to switch off analogue will get these remaining homes to switch now.


  • #4
    The Cush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,646 ✭✭✭✭The Cush


    Last April in the Netherlands UPC unencrypted a basic package of 30 digital channels that can be accessed on any DVB-C receiver in households that are subscribed to the basic analogue TV and/or the internet package. UPC STB not required. Internet only customers must pay €18.20 pm for the basic analogue/digital channels.

    UPC have done this in other European countries as a means of introducing its analogue customers to digital TV and probably as a way of migrating them away from spectrum hungary analogue.

    With the number of analogue customers here low and dropping we probably won't see a similar unencrypted package here.
    A key development that has taken shape over the last six months is that we have introduced basic digital unencryption to promote the digitalization process and enhance our competitive position in a number of markets, including Switzerland, the Netherlands, Austria, Romania and the Czech Republic. By unencrypting the digital signal, we are providing our customers with incremental value and an easy introduction to our basic digital video product.

    UPC Q1 results
    The move follows similar developments with other Liberty Global owned networks in Europe, Unitymedia KabelBW in Germany, UPC Cablecom in Switzerland and UPC Austria.

    http://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2013/03/27/upc-netherlands-decrypts-main-channels/


  • #5
    Damien360
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,597 ✭✭✭Damien360


    Why do the count the number of subscribers as a total of each service provided ?

    Surely the broadband and telephone subscribers are the same household and many of those are also getting the TV package. Counting the number of households with their services would be more accurate reflection of their market position. Tracking the increase/decrease in this would be a better way to see market share and then the breakdown would reflect actual revenue.


  • #6
    The Cush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,646 ✭✭✭✭The Cush


    Damien360 wrote: »
    Why do the count the number of subscribers as a total of each service provided ?

    Counting the number of households with their services would be more accurate reflection of their market position. Tracking the increase/decrease in this would be a better way to see market share and then the breakdown would reflect actual revenue.

    They do count the number of households that subscribe to at least one of their services in the results including the increase/decrease per quarter. They call them Customer Relationships. 535,700 premises/homes at the end of Jun with a decrease of 4,600 in the last quarter.

    I would think the subscriber numbers per service gives them a more accurate reflection of per-service take-up. From the results we see them losing video customers, to Sky and Saorview/Freesat probably, while gaining customers in the internet/telephone market.
    Damien360 wrote: »
    Surely the broadband and telephone subscribers are the same household and many of those are also getting the TV package.

    From the results the number of households that can receive their internet and telephone services differ.


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  • #7
    mickeyboymel
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 815 ✭✭✭mickeyboymel


    The Cush wrote: »
    Last April in the Netherlands UPC unencrypted a basic package of 30 digital channels that can be accessed on any DVB-C receiver in households that are subscribed to the basic analogue TV and/or the internet package. UPC STB not required. Internet only customers must pay €18.20 pm for the basic analogue/digital channels.

    UPC have done this in other European countries as a means of introducing its analogue customers to digital TV and probably as a way of migrating them away from spectrum hungary analogue.

    With the number of analogue customers here low and dropping we probably won't see a similar unencrypted package here.


    I was asked to participate in a focus group survey last month and lots of the questions related to the number of television sets in my household which had Common Interface slots. They were looking for feedback about possible future digital services which would not require a set top box.


  • #8
    The Cush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,646 ✭✭✭✭The Cush


    mickeyboymel wrote: »
    I was asked to participate in a focus group survey last month and lots of the questions related to the number of television sets in my household which had Common Interface slots. They were looking for feedback about possible future digital services which would not require a set top box.

    They may be looking at introducing CI+ modules as they have done elsewhere on their networks. Cheaper than a STB but the TV has to be CI+ compatible.

    http://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2011/04/08/upc-nederland-certifies-first-sony-ci-plus-tvs/
    http://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2011/01/20/unitymedia-launches-ci-plus-module/
    http://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2011/04/12/upc-starts-ci-plus-on-april-26/


  • #9
    mickko
    Registered Users Posts: 129 ✭✭mickko


    The Cush wrote: »
    They may be looking at introducing CI+ modules as they have done elsewhere on their networks. Cheaper than a STB but the TV has to be CI+ compatible.

    http://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2011/04/08/upc-nederland-certifies-first-sony-ci-plus-tvs/
    http://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2011/01/20/unitymedia-launches-ci-plus-module/
    http://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2011/04/12/upc-starts-ci-plus-on-april-26/


    The problem with UPC in Ireland is that they must comply with t&c's issued from BSkyB who.....
    1. will not allow their services to be used without a STB.
    2. will not allow CI+ to be used as encryption standard. Must be CI only.

    However, Sky's t&c's only apply to Sky's services.
    ie: Sky Sports, Sky 1, Sky Arts, Sky News etc.......

    Other broadcasters such as MTV, Nick, Discovery, etc are free to apply whatever t&c's they wish with other ops, and for the best part, they are more reasonable to deal with.

    In my opinion, the average subscriber really only has requirement in their house for a single STB, where they receive their premium services, and perform their recording, etc.

    There is no real need for a second one. It's cumbersome, and costly, and the operator really needs to provide the subscriber with some other simple, cost effective options to facilitate their need for 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc TV's.

    They have the following options which could be implemented across their networks very cost effectively....

    1. the existing analogue TV service, unencrypted, mainly carrying the Public service broadcasts. No extra charge for this.

    2. a digital TV service, unencrpted, broadcasting in both DVB-C and DVB-T (yes it is possible, and in use on networks in Ireland, and Europe) again mainly carrying the RTE's/BBC's, etc. No extra charge for this.

    3. an encrypted digital service, using CI+, carrying RTE/BBC and some pay TV non-Sky services. Small extra charge for CAM and Card.

    These measures have proven very successful in mainland Europe and I strongly believe that they would help stall the decline in the TV subs for UPC, and possibly they could begin to see growth again.

    If you want to be successful in business, you got to look at what your competitor cannot do.
    Sky cannot do this.


  • #10
    The Cush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,646 ✭✭✭✭The Cush


    mickko wrote: »
    The problem with UPC in Ireland is that they must comply with t&c's issued from BSkyB who.....
    1. will not allow their services to be used without a STB.
    2. will not allow CI+ to be used as encryption standard. Must be CI only.

    However, Sky's t&c's only apply to Sky's services.
    ie: Sky Sports, Sky 1, Sky Arts, Sky News etc.......

    They do it in Germany, so why not UK & Ireland?

    http://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2011/01/26/sky-deutschland-chooses-nds-ci-plus-modules/
    http://www.google.ie/webhp?hl=en&tab=nn#fp=bf3f8d3fef006ed3&hl=en&psj=1&q=sky+nds+ci%2B
    mickko wrote: »
    They have the following options which could be implemented across their networks very cost effectively....

    1. the existing analogue TV service, unencrypted, mainly carrying the Public service broadcasts. No extra charge for this.

    2. a digital TV service, unencrpted, broadcasting in both DVB-C and DVB-T (yes it is possible, and in use on networks in Ireland, and Europe) again mainly carrying the RTE's/BBC's, etc. No extra charge for this.

    These measures have proven very successful in mainland Europe and I strongly believe that they would help stall the decline in the TV subs for UPC, and possibly they could begin to see growth again.

    I know MMDS uses DVB-T on part of its network, but what cable system uses DVB-T?

    Various Liberty Global networks around Europe are unencrypting a basic package of digital channels to entice analogue subscribers over to digital, they continue to pay the basic subscription of course, €18.20 in NL. These networks have a much larger number analogue only subscribers than UPC Ireland so there may not be the incentive to do the same here.


  • #11
    mickko
    Registered Users Posts: 129 ✭✭mickko


    The Cush wrote: »

    I know MMDS uses DVB-T on part of its network, but what cable system uses DVB-T?

    DVB-T is widely used across cable networks in Europe and is becoming increasingly popular. However, it's not used as an alternative to DVB-C, it's used in addition.

    For example, UPC in Prague broadcast their PSB's in the clear using DVB-T and market it as a free addition.

    DVB-T is just the standard's name, and the standard of choice for state terrestrial services, but at the end of the day, it's just a modulation technique. Whether it's broadcast over the air, or over cable is irrelevent. It's just broadcast in the UHF band on both platforms and works the same. It facilitates TV's with DVB-T only tuners which start tuning at ch21 (474MHz).

    Cable Net's do not really use the UHF band, but technically they can. Their amps will go up to 550Mhz at least. COFDM will work down as far as nearly -40dB, so it's perfectly placed at the higher (more susceptible) end of the cable networks spectrum, and it gives a cost effective multiroom solution for someone who may have a DVB-T only TV.


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  • #12
    mickko
    Registered Users Posts: 129 ✭✭mickko


    The Cush wrote: »
    They do it in Germany, so why not UK & Ireland?

    http://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2011/01/26/sky-deutschland-chooses-nds-ci-plus-modules/
    http://www.google.ie/webhp?hl=en&tab=nn#fp=bf3f8d3fef006ed3&hl=en&psj=1&q=sky+nds+ci%2B

    That's an excellent question, and one that Sky will only give vague answers to. The fact that Sky Deutschland (and others) are using it has been but to BSkyB UK and Ire who will simply say they have not endorsed it for use here. They've continued to give vague answers on this, despite the fact that it's more secure than CI. Strange considering how hung-up Sky are on security.

    I think the real reason is that their own STB uses CI, and their policy with other operators distributing their services is that they use an STB as similiar with their own product as possible....
    same encrytion technique, same size HDD, watermark facilites, etc, etc

    If the operator wants to redistribute their products, they must use an STB, and that STB must be neither much worse or much better than their own STB.


  • #13
    The Cush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,646 ✭✭✭✭The Cush


    mickko wrote: »
    DVB-T is widely used across cable networks in Europe and is becoming increasingly popular. However, it's not used as an alternative to DVB-C, it's used in addition.

    You said in your previous post it is used on networks in Ireland, which networks?

    I think it was said here previously that DVB-T is more resource hungry than DVB-C as it was developed to deal with the difficulties of terrestrial transmission (more error correction required), with DVB-C more channels can be pushed down a clean cable than using DVB-T. If this is the case why would cable networks use DVB-T?


  • #14
    Antenna
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,330 ✭✭✭Antenna


    The Cush wrote: »
    --- Analogue Cable - 56,900 (-6,100)

    Would it be better to describe this figure as 'Analogue-only Cable' ?
    as probably over 50% of users of digital cable services are also using the analogue for another TV in the house?


  • #15
    Antenna
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,330 ✭✭✭Antenna


    The Cush wrote: »
    You said in your previous post it is used on networks in Ireland, which networks?

    Apparently this is the case on Longford cable where the full basic digital service can be received with no need for a STB on the customers own TV, provided it is MPEG4/Saorview capable.
    read the FAQs here:
    http://www.crossan.ie/index.php/cable-television-overview/faq/

    An MPEG2 TV there will receive only some digital channels (with no RTE/TV3/Tg4 - but they can be got alternatively via analogue instead)


  • #16
    The Cush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,646 ✭✭✭✭The Cush


    Antenna wrote: »
    Would it be better to describe this figure as 'Analogue-only Cable' ?
    as probably over 50% of users of digital cable services are also using the analogue for another TV in the house?

    This is the terminology used by UPC themselves.

    The Analogue Cable subscriber numbers in the UPC press release refer to households or businesses that subscribe to an analogue TV package only and doesn't include digital TV subscribers that may receive the analogue TV channels on a second or third TV.

    From the UPC press release
    A Digital Cable Subscriber is not counted as an Analog Cable Subscriber


  • #17
    The Cush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,646 ✭✭✭✭The Cush


    UPC's q3 numbers

    Video Subscribers - 430,900 (-3,500)
    --- Analogue Cable - 54,000 (-2,900)
    --- Digital Cable - 336,700 (+1,200)
    --- MMDS - 40,200 (-1,800)
    Internet - 330,000 (+8,700)
    Telephone - 279,100 (+13,200)

    Total Subscribers - 1,040,000 (+18,400)

    Premises - 534,700 (-1,000)
    We successfully launched Horizon TV, our next-generation platform, in Ireland in mid-August, our third
    UPC Europe market. Through the end of October 2013, we had over 340,000 Horizon TV subscribers
    in the Netherlands, Switzerland and Ireland, with each market accounting for over 200,000, 110,000
    and 30,000 subscribers, respectively


  • #18
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,547 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Antenna wrote: »
    Apparently this is the case on Longford cable where the full basic digital service can be received with no need for a STB on the customers own TV, provided it is MPEG4/Saorview capable.
    read the FAQs here:
    http://www.crossan.ie/index.php/cable-television-overview/faq/

    An MPEG2 TV there will receive only some digital channels (with no RTE/TV3/Tg4 - but they can be got alternatively via analogue instead)

    They're running DVB-T over cable?


  • #19
    The Cush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,646 ✭✭✭✭The Cush


    MYOB wrote: »
    They're running DVB-T over cable?

    It appears so.


  • #20
    The Cush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,646 ✭✭✭✭The Cush


    UPC Q1 2014 numbers published today (in brackets, quarter on quarter +/-)

    Video Subscribers - 422,700 (-5,200)
    --- Analogue Cable - 47,800 (-3,300)
    --- Digital Cable - 339,000 (+700)
    --- MMDS - 35,900 (-2,600)
    Internet - 348,300 (+10,000)
    Telephone - 313,000 (+19,500)

    Total Subscribers - 1,084,000 (+24,300)

    Premises - 530,600 (-2,400)


  • #21
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,547 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    The Cush wrote: »
    It appears so.

    Its an... erm... interesting way around the issue of providing STBs anyway.


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  • #22
    watty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,417 ✭✭✭✭watty


    So MMDS is about 1/6th to 1/8th of what it used to be? I think NTL MMDS was over 95K and Chorus much bigger? But I'm not sure.

    Interesting that they are seeing some small growth again on Digital Cable TV.


  • #23
    The Cush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,646 ✭✭✭✭The Cush


    watty wrote: »
    So MMDS is about 1/6th to 1/8th of what it used to be? I think NTL MMDS was over 95K and Chorus much bigger? But I'm not sure.

    MMDS subscribers peaked at about 117,800 in Q4 2006.

    When ntl and Chorus merged in Q4 2005 there were 113,900 MMDS subscribers which included 24,700 ntl MMDS subscribers.

    2qk4711.jpg

    115,900 in Q1/06, 115,400 in Q2/06, 117,100 in Q3/06 and peaking at 117,800 at the end of Q4/06. Since then it's been downhill, at the end of 2007 the numbers had dropped to 105,200.


  • #24
    watty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,417 ✭✭✭✭watty


    Thanks.
    I wonder what the figures are 1990 to 2005, which covers Sky Analogue and Launch of Sky Digital?

    What date did C4 join BBC & ITV FTA on Satellite? Was that around 2006 or 2007?

    Of course Chorus had put a lot of Limerick City people on MMDS due to cable vandalism and UPC has migrated them all to cable.


  • #25
    The Cush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,646 ✭✭✭✭The Cush


    watty wrote: »
    I wonder what the figures are 1990 to 2005, which covers Sky Analogue and Launch of Sky Digital?

    I could only find 1 figure for this period, an estimated 90,000 MMDS subscribers in 1997 from the Cable Communications Assn. of Ireland (CCAI) which represented the various cable/MMDS franchisees (pre Sky Digital).


  • #26
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,547 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    watty wrote: »
    What date did C4 join BBC & ITV FTA on Satellite? Was that around 2006 or 2007?

    BBC 2003, ITV 2005 and C4 2008.


  • #27
    watty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,417 ✭✭✭✭watty


    My mind is going ...

    So the rot set in 2 years after ITV FTA and before C4 went FTA. Interesting. Maybe Sky did a big marketing campaign or it was UPC swapping MMDS to cable to be able to sell BB too.


  • #28
    Five Lamps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Five Lamps


    Antenna wrote: »
    Apparently this is the case on Longford cable where the full basic digital service can be received with no need for a STB on the customers own TV, provided it is MPEG4/Saorview capable.
    read the FAQs here:
    http://www.crossan.ie/index.php/cable-television-overview/faq/

    An MPEG2 TV there will receive only some digital channels (with no RTE/TV3/Tg4 - but they can be got alternatively via analogue instead)

    I love it - "CableComm are the only Cable TV providers for the Longford Metropolitan Area.". Fair play to them for building up an independent business. Surprised they haven't tried moving into other metropolitan areas in the midlands.


  • #29
    icdg
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 11,854 Mod ✭✭✭✭icdg


    Because they'd have to compete full on with UPC in doing so. The only achievement it would get would probably be an offer from UPC to buy the company (which might be a good thing if you can make a good profit out of it).

    It'd be interesting to do a chart of figures for satellite, cable, and MMDS respectively from 1989-present. Until the UK stations went on satellite in the early 2000s cable was absolutely dominant in urban areas, satellite was regarded as a luxury and something you would take as well as, not instead of, cable/MMDS. Now its not just a genuine alternative but the dominant player, particularly outside of Dublin (where inertia more than anything else has kept UPC dominant).


  • #30
    ardmacha
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,476 ✭✭✭ardmacha


    Now its not just a genuine alternative but the dominant player, particularly outside of Dublin (where inertia more than anything else has kept UPC dominant).

    Inertia and 200 Mb broadband keeps UPC in the picture.


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  • #31
    The Cush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,646 ✭✭✭✭The Cush


    UPC Q2 2014 numbers published today (in brackets, quarter on quarter +/-)
    http://www.libertyglobal.com/pdf/press-release/LG-Earnings-Release-Q2-14-FINAL.pdf

    Video Subscribers - 414,800 (-7,900)
    --- Analogue Cable - 44,500 (-3,300)
    --- Digital Cable - 336,700 (-2,300)
    --- MMDS - 33,600 (-2,300)
    Internet - 352,300 (+4,000)
    Telephone - 324,500 (+11,500)

    Total Subscribers - 1,091,600 (+7,600)

    Premises - 523,900 (-6,700)


    Also last month Liberty Global (owner of Virgin Media & UPC) aquired BSkyB's 6.4% stake in ITV for £481 million (http://www.libertyglobal.com/pdf/press-release/07-17-Liberty-Global-ITV-FINAL.pdf).


  • #32
    7upfree
    Registered Users Posts: 2,124 ✭✭✭7upfree


    The Cush wrote: »
    UPC Q2 2014 numbers published today (in brackets, quarter on quarter +/-)
    http://www.libertyglobal.com/pdf/press-release/LG-Earnings-Release-Q2-14-FINAL.pdf

    Video Subscribers - 414,800 (-7,900)
    --- Analogue Cable - 44,500 (-3,300)
    --- Digital Cable - 336,700 (-2,300)
    --- MMDS - 33,600 (-2,300)
    Internet - 352,300 (+4,000)
    Telephone - 324,500 (+11,500)

    Total Subscribers - 1,091,600 (+7,600)

    Premises - 523,900 (-6,700)


    Also last month Liberty Global (owner of Virgin Media & UPC) aquired BSkyB's 6.4% stake in ITV for £481 million (http://www.libertyglobal.com/pdf/press-release/07-17-Liberty-Global-ITV-FINAL.pdf).

    Don't those with digital also still have analogue cable?:confused:


  • #33
    icdg
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 11,854 Mod ✭✭✭✭icdg


    Yes, as was noted earlier in the thread. This figure should actually read "analogue only". It's undereporting of the numbers actually using analogue as there are still quite a number of people using it for that old CRT they'll have in their kitchen/bedroom.


  • #34
    pippip
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,249 ✭✭✭pippip


    I'd also say out of those +11,500 telephone subscribers only about 500 rang with intention of looking for telephone services. The rest would have just been bundled in as part of the Horizon upgrade package, probably without alot of them even realising they were getting a phone.


  • #35
    The Cush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,646 ✭✭✭✭The Cush


    7upfree wrote: »
    Don't those with digital also still have analogue cable?:confused:

    From the Liberty Global press release
    A Digital Cable Subscriber is not counted as an Analog Cable Subscriber.

    They only count RGUs (Revenue Generating Units) aka subscribers. Digital TV subscribers don't pay an additional sub for the analogue channels so they're not counted.

    Once analogue only subscribers drop to a certain level they'll probably switchoff the analogue service leaving internet only/digital subscribers who tune in the analogue channels on main/secondary TVs without any channels unless they have a multiroom sub. They same will apply to analogue only subscribers that convert over to digital cable at that time.


  • #36
    Five Lamps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Five Lamps


    Drop in TV subscribers seems to be the trend worldwide as people ditch pay TV packages.

    In the US cable companies are experiencing the same decline. 31% are now consuming video on mobile devices that require a broadband connection - 5mb being the minimum required connection for HD connection.

    UPC are obviously on the right side of the tracks since the own a lot of broadband 'pipe'. So are Sky on the wrong side of the tracks - great box and content but no pipe.


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  • #37
    kooga
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,902 ✭✭✭kooga


    still 33,600 mmds subscribers at a minimum of €29.50 a month (basic package - including my upc discount) brings in just under €1million a month. Serious revenue stream.


    are UPC just going to walk away from these customers.........the fact they are on mmds means they cannot get broadband or phone from UPC.


  • #38
    The Cush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,646 ✭✭✭✭The Cush


    kooga wrote: »
    still 33,600 mmds subscribers at a minimum of €29.50 a month (basic package - including my upc discount) brings in just under €1million a month. Serious revenue stream.

    Minus the running and maintenance costs of the transmission network for a small subscriber base. Increasing costs vs. reducing revenue stream.
    kooga wrote: »
    are UPC just going to walk away from these customers

    Possibly, how much will it cost UPC to retain some spectrum at auction and upgrade transmission and reception equipment to meet the new technical conditions of that particular band sharing with mobile users.


  • #39
    SpaceTime
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,088 ✭✭✭SpaceTime


    kooga wrote: »
    still 33,600 mmds subscribers at a minimum of €29.50 a month (basic package - including my upc discount) brings in just under €1million a month. Serious revenue stream.


    are UPC just going to walk away from these customers.........the fact they are on mmds means they cannot get broadband or phone from UPC.

    They inherited a rather obsolete product that has very little scope to be upgraded and competes directly with digital satellite TV (which is available free of charge if you want to get FreeSat and combine it with SaorView for Irish TV).

    From their point of view, the MMDS network is expensive, not entirely compatible with the cable network, has almost no upgrade path possible, declining subscriber numbers, ComReg want the frequencies back for other uses and the service is so lousy that it's probably doing UPC damage in terms of spillover onto its reputation.

    If I'd been UPC, I would have left the MMDS service branded as Chorus for that reason.

    I think you can be fairly sure they'll kill it off soon enough.

    They should ensure that they are cabling up any urban MMDS subscribers though. Chorus in particular was incredibly cheap about avoiding wiring up areas. There are some developments in Cork, and for example the entire town of Carrigaline which has no CATV (even though parts of it were wired for it).


  • #40
    JTMan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,542 ✭✭✭JTMan


    MMDS ends, at the latest, on 18 April 2016 when the MMDS licenses expire.

    The last MMDS consultation by Comreg showed that the MMDS licenses that UPC hold are pissing numerous parties off. Comreg had the right to extend the MMDS licenses for longer but choose not to.

    I would be shocked if Comreg extend the MMDS licenses further given the fact that the number of MMDS users is falling off a cliff, it is pissing too many people off and it is clearly not part of UPC's strategic vision.


  • #41
    The Cush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,646 ✭✭✭✭The Cush


    JTMan wrote: »
    MMDS ends, at the latest, on 18 April 2016 when the MMDS licenses expire.

    Thread on the consultation here, if you haven't seen it already - http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=82129791
    The review of the band started back in 2010 - http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055911838


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  • #42
    bk
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,986 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    The Cush wrote: »
    Once analogue only subscribers drop to a certain level they'll probably switchoff the analogue service leaving internet only/digital subscribers who tune in the analogue channels on main/secondary TVs without any channels unless they have a multiroom sub. They same will apply to analogue only subscribers that convert over to digital cable at that time.

    UPC will definitely want to turn off analogue TV services as it uses up a great deal of bandwidth that will be required for DOCSIS 3.1 and 1Gb/s TV services.

    In time they may also need to move their Digital TV service to a Digital Switched system to free up even more space. But switching off analogue is the first step.

    The truth is UPC is much more a broadband company now then a TV supplier. I believe broadband is more profitable for them and in the end I believe eventually TV/Video services will just end up another service carried over broadband.

    However I don't think they can just switch analogue off without offering a free alternative. I believe even many Digital Subscribers use the analogue service for free multi-room and it is a major selling point for UPC over Sky.

    It will make sense for them to offer a bunch of free channels to subscribers via CI+ either directly or to a STB that decrypts it to analogue TV/SCART for older TV's. I'd it expect to carry a similar lineup to the existing analogue service.


  • #43
    The Cush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,646 ✭✭✭✭The Cush


    bk wrote: »
    It will make sense for them to offer a bunch of free channels to subscribers via CI+ either directly or to a STB that decrypts it to analogue TV/SCART for older TV's. I'd it expect to carry a similar lineup to the existing analogue service.

    In Holland and Switzerland they offer a package of free digital channels that can be viewed via any DVB-C TV or STB in the house to encourage analogue only subscribers over to digital. Those countries have large analogue cable subscriber bases.


  • #44
    icdg
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 11,854 Mod ✭✭✭✭icdg


    The Cush wrote: »
    In Holland and Switzerland they offer a package of free digital channels that can be viewed via any DVB-C TV or STB in the house to encourage analogue only subscribers over to digital. Those countries have large analogue cable subscriber bases.

    It would have to be DVB-T here really if they did it, very few sets offer DVB-C tuners and even those that do don't tend to market it as a feature as its essentially useless in this market at present.


  • #45
    The Cush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,646 ✭✭✭✭The Cush


    icdg wrote: »
    It would have to be DVB-T here really if they did it, very few sets offer DVB-C tuners and even those that do don't tend to market it as a feature as its essentially useless in this market at present.

    Most likely, but less spectrum-efficient over cable probably and duplicate channels in both DVB-C and -T would have to be carried and what would the cost be to install DVB-T equipment throughout the network for such small numbers. The analogue subscriber base here is very small compared with the other UPC networks so they may simply leave it to decline naturally.


  • #46
    bk
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,986 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    The Cush wrote: »
    Most likely, but less spectrum-efficient over cable probably and duplicate channels in both DVB-C and -T would have to be carried and what would the cost be to install DVB-T equipment throughout the network for such small numbers. The analogue subscriber base here is very small compared with the other UPC networks so they may simply leave it to decline naturally.

    I think you are underestimating the number of digital customers who use analogue TV as a "free" multi-room. I think it is an important differentiator compared to Sky and UPC will want to have a replacement for it.

    Perhaps they will go with a CI+ card with an option to buy/rent a CI+ capable STB.

    Or if they go with DVB-T, that is possible too. Yes, it would mean duplicating channels, but the equivalent of 2 to 3 analogue TV channels would be enough bandwidth to carry 16 analogue channels using DVB-T.

    So UPC would save the equivalent of 13 analogue channels worth of bandwidth (104Mhz worth of bandwidth, more with the elimination of space between channels).

    However I don't expect UPC will do any of this or eliminate analogue until they come under pressure to release 500mb/s+ broadband services and thus need to make space for DOCSIS 3.1

    A full upgrade to DOCSIS 3.1 1Gb/s services will require a lot of potentially expensive changes for UPC:

    - Definitely eliminate the anaolgue TV service
    - Probably remove SD channels where a HD version exist and also move to switched digital TV platform.

    This will likely require many of the existing STB's to be replaced. Certainly all SD only ones, I assume the Horizon box is future proofed for this already, not sure about the HD models.


  • #47
    JTMan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,542 ✭✭✭JTMan


    I suspect UPC have put MMDS much higher on their priority list than analogue TV.

    I am still digesting the rapid decline in TV subscribers from a route cause perspective and a crystal ball 'where are we going from here' perspective.

    What do people suspect are the main causes? Some thoughts ...
    (1) More people choosing FTA satellite,
    (2) A small number moving to eVision,
    (3) More people choosing Sky for TV,
    (4) Greater use of illegal IPTV / VPN services,
    (5) NetFlix and online steaming.

    Where to from here? Some thoughts ...
    (1) MMDS hits zero subscribers by 2016.
    (2) Analogue cable hits zero subscribers by circa 2018.
    (3) Digital cable TV continues its decline downwards but is it a blip or is digital cable TV starting a terminal decline curve?


  • #48
    icdg
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 11,854 Mod ✭✭✭✭icdg


    MMDS has, barring a reprieve which doesn't appear to be coming, a definite execution date. Analogue doesn't. It likely has a few more years life left in it and a decision to switch off analogue now would probably get a lot of criticism. It will go at some point but I don't think it will be today or tomorrow.


  • #49
    bk
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,986 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    JTMan, there are different services and different considerations.

    MMDS - This will likely be switched off in 2016 and the frequency freed up for other uses such as 4G. UPC will likely be very happy to see it go, as it has no future in it's current form and probably costs as much to run as they make from it.

    I don't expect that subscribers will be quiet at 0 when it comes to switch it off. However I wonder if maybe UPC will make a deal with Sky to offer the last few customers free Sky install, etc.

    However I'd expect UPC will use it's current use of the spectrum to get a deal from Comreg with priority access to the spectrum and perhaps reduced licensing fee when used for 4G. This would probably be very useful for UPC as they are expected to launch their own mobile phone service in the next couple of months.

    Analogue Cable TV service - UPC aren't under any external pressure to turn this off and will likely to be slow to turn it off. The number of analogue TV users is deceiving as it probably doesn't include the many digital subscribers who use it as a "free" multi-room. It is likely a very significant selling point to many digital subscribers over Sky and UPC won't want to give that up to Sky.

    The only pressure to switch it off would come internally from UPC's own needs. The question is does UPC need the space it uses to allow it to do DOCSIS 3.1 and 1Gb/s BB?

    Now UPC has been replacing a lot of cable over the last few years with new high quality cable. So perhaps they have plenty of bandwidth and can do 1Gb/s without turning off analogue TV service, which would certainly make things easier and leave analogue TV to work for the medium term.

    But either way in the long term demands for higher broadband speeds will only increase and eventually they will almost certainly turn it off to free up space for BB. However I think they may come up with an alternative such as CI+, DVB-T, etc. to continue that advantage over Sky.

    Digital TV - There really isn't any particular pattern yet. Digital TV customer numbers dropped less then 1% this quarter, it increased less then 1% the quarter before, that.

    So that seems more like the number of digital TV subs has peaked and now it is just normal churn rates. Less then 1% loss is actually really good.

    The questions I have is that I think they are also approaching saturation of their broadband subs too (an impressive 50% of all homes passed and 67% of their customers). I'd figure there is still some potential growth in broadband customers left, but not for too much longer. It seems to me that they are coming to the end of their easy growth in broadband subs.

    So where do they go now?

    It seems likely that they will enter the mobile market soon and become a true quad play company. That is almost a no brainer.

    But what beyond that? Will they simply be happy with maintaining what they currently have?

    Will they start expanding their cable network into new areas?

    Will they start selling services on the ESB's FTTH network and Eircoms VDSL network?

    Interesting questions.


  • #50
    JTMan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,542 ✭✭✭JTMan


    Digital TV on an annualised basis is down in 3 of the last 4 quarters. The trend is downward.

    Interesting point that broadband subs might have reached close to saturation point for UPC.

    Quad play via a Three MVNO next year seems certain. Even faster broadband speeds seems certain. Expansion into more business customer services seems certain.

    I can't see UPC reselling other peoples product, it goes against their ethos.


  • #51
    bk
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,986 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    JTMan wrote: »
    I can't see UPC reselling other peoples product, it goes against their ethos.

    I would have said the same of Vodafone just four years ago!


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