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Dublin House Prices 2015

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  • 16-10-2014 4:09pm
    #1
    assetcolum
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 59 ✭✭


    Seeing alot of drops in the price of housing in Dublin since the CB announcement

    I can imagine it will drop even further as the months pass and especially after the budget

    What do you reckon will happen next year in regard to house prices in Dublin?

    FTB here and have been putting off buying for the past 2 years , i work overseas so plan to buy somewhere for 150k (with 100k deposit) and then let it out.

    Do you think it's a good idea if working overseas, i can't maintain the property myself ,do any of you have any recommendations for letting companies who will cover this for me?

    Thanks


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    #2
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    if your asking for advise on buying in Dublin its the best place in Ireland for BTL. As regards prices, I think we will see a drop early in the year and a return to growth later in the year. But thats just my opinion when looking at Central bank deposit demand and other factors. Stock markets have taken a bounding this week ... if that continues who knows... its all a guessing game really.


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    #3
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,520 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    assetcolum wrote: »
    Seeing alot of drops in the price of housing in Dublin since the CB announcement

    This doesn't really add up:

    1. It's far too soon for an announcement like that (which is certainly not set in stone just yet) to manifest itself in something like house prices. The property market doesn't react that quickly.

    2. If anything the prices should be going up as people clamour to get their purchases made before any new rules come in requiring them to have larger deposits.


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    #4
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    Brussels Sprout wrote: »
    This doesn't really add up:

    1. It's far too soon for an announcement like that (which is certainly not set in stone just yet) to manifest itself in something like house prices. The property market doesn't react that quickly.

    2. If anything the prices should be going up as people clamour to get their purchases made before any new rules come in requiring them to have larger deposits.

    Its to late now if buyer were to go sale agreed this week. Draw down more likely new year and into new deposit rules


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    #5
    gaius c
    Registered Users Posts: 3,528 ✭✭✭gaius c


    Brussels Sprout wrote: »
    This doesn't really add up:

    1. It's far too soon for an announcement like that (which is certainly not set in stone just yet) to manifest itself in something like house prices. The property market doesn't react that quickly.

    2. If anything the prices should be going up as people clamour to get their purchases made before any new rules come in requiring them to have larger deposits.

    They actually started before the CB announcement. Will post up a bar chart showing asking price change volatility on myhome when I find it. The market has no idea what real prices are and it's basically just guessing right now.

    In the meantime, FTB's without large cash gifts from mammy and daddy are just giving up on viewings because it's a waste of their time walking in the door to be told that there's already an offer 15K over asking.


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    #6
    mr_seer
    Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭mr_seer


    gaius c wrote: »
    They actually started before the CB announcement. Will post up a bar chart showing asking price change volatility on myhome when I find it. The market has no idea what real prices are and it's basically just guessing right now.

    In the meantime, FTB's without large cash gifts from mammy and daddy are just giving up on viewings because it's a waste of their time walking in the door to be told that there's already an offer 15K over asking.

    Spoke to an estate agent today who confirmed that viewings have been slowing steadily since April. In the last few weeks they are getting virtually nobody in to viewings. Prices would have fallen anyway I suspect but the new CB proposals will just accelerate the correction


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    #7
    Glenbhoy
    Registered Users Posts: 1,852 ✭✭✭Glenbhoy


    Brussels Sprout wrote: »
    This doesn't really add up:

    1. It's far too soon for an announcement like that (which is certainly not set in stone just yet) to manifest itself in something like house prices. The property market doesn't react that quickly.

    2. If anything the prices should be going up as people clamour to get their purchases made before any new rules come in requiring them to have larger deposits.

    The CBI document states that banks are expected to take the proposals into account from the moment they were issued.


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    #8
    trackguy
    Registered Users Posts: 1,246 ✭✭✭trackguy


    Brussels Sprout wrote: »
    This doesn't really add up:

    1. It's far too soon for an announcement like that (which is certainly not set in stone just yet) to manifest itself in something like house prices. The property market doesn't react that quickly.

    2. If anything the prices should be going up as people clamour to get their purchases made before any new rules come in requiring them to have larger deposits.

    Bingo. The estate we bought in (North County Dublin) have put two put up prices twice in the last 2 weeks since mention of CB intervention.

    Prices have gone from €240k to €260k in 2 weeks for a 3 bed semi. No ****.


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    #9
    gaius c
    Registered Users Posts: 3,528 ✭✭✭gaius c


    gaius c wrote: »
    They actually started before the CB announcement. Will post up a bar chart showing asking price change volatility on myhome when I find it. The market has no idea what real prices are and it's basically just guessing right now.

    In the meantime, FTB's without large cash gifts from mammy and daddy are just giving up on viewings because it's a waste of their time walking in the door to be told that there's already an offer 15K over asking.

    Got it.
    Source is Mantissa on the pin.

    ugAh0sj.png

    This chart isn't for increasing prices, it's for changes in the price once it's already been listed. Fair enough if all the changes are in one direction but the spread in both directions indicates that the market hasn't a clue where real pricing is at.


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    #10
    Frank Lee Midere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,780 ✭✭✭Frank Lee Midere


    mr_seer wrote: »
    Spoke to an estate agent today who confirmed that viewings have been slowing steadily since April. In the last few weeks they are getting virtually nobody in to viewings. Prices would have fallen anyway I suspect but the new CB proposals will just accelerate the correction


    Daft is showing 3,460 houses for sale in Dublin which is about 1,100 higher than its minimum and growing fairly rapidly. If cash buyers are spooked by the changes ( if they think it's an inevitable rout) they will stay out.


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    #11
    Frank Lee Midere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,780 ✭✭✭Frank Lee Midere


    gaius c wrote: »
    Got it.
    Source is Mantissa on the pin.

    ugAh0sj.png

    This chart isn't for increasing prices, it's for changes in the price once it's already been listed. Fair enough if all the changes are in one direction but the spread in both directions indicates that the market hasn't a clue where real pricing is at.

    Actually the trend is down. I agree though that fluctuations are utterly ridiculous.

    I am utterly perplexed by the kind of people who having not sold a property this year raise prices nevertheless. See that all over daft.

    And of course, conversely, asking prices might go down online but a seller with plenty of offers has no need to increase prices on daft or myhome.


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    #12
    ted1
    Registered Users Posts: 23,266 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    assetcolum wrote: »
    Seeing alot of drops in the price of housing in Dublin since the CB announcement

    I can imagine it will drop even further as the months pass and especially after the budget

    What do you reckon will happen next year in regard to house prices in Dublin?

    FTB here and have been putting off buying for the past 2 years , i work overseas so plan to buy somewhere for 150k (with 100k deposit) and then let it out.



    Do you think it's a good idea if working overseas, i can't maintain the property myself ,do any of you have any recommendations for letting companies who will cover this for me?

    Thanks
    People won't sell at a reduced price, rents will increase.
    Buy to let's are the worst performing mortgages, the government have found a way to make these perform and thus avoiding another bail out.

    CGT relief is gone do it's another reason why investors won't sell.


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    #13
    Glenbhoy
    Registered Users Posts: 1,852 ✭✭✭Glenbhoy


    ted1 wrote: »
    People won't sell at a reduced price, rents will increase.
    Buy to let's are the worst performing mortgages, the government have found a way to make these perform and thus avoiding another bail out.

    CGT relief is gone do it's another reason why investors won't sell.

    The fact that the CGT scheme has not been extended is relevant to investors only in that they must hold the property for 7 years in order to avail of the relief.
    If people have to sell, they have to sell, they'd rather sell high obviously, but, if pressure is put on them to raise cash, they'll have to sell at whatever they can obtain.


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    #14
    the groutch
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,096 ✭✭✭✭the groutch


    Brussels Sprout wrote: »
    2. If anything the prices should be going up as people clamour to get their purchases made before any new rules come in requiring them to have larger deposits.

    Or it could just as easily be a case of people dropping their price a bit to get a sale agreed quickly, knowing that they might get even less again next year.


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    #15
    ted1
    Registered Users Posts: 23,266 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    Glenbhoy wrote: »
    If people have to sell, they have to sell, they'd rather sell high obviously, but, if pressure is put on them to raise cash, they'll have to sell at whatever they can obtain.

    With higher rent returns, less people will have to sell


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    #16
    Frank Lee Midere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,780 ✭✭✭Frank Lee Midere


    ted1 wrote: »
    People won't sell at a reduced price, rents will increase.
    Buy to let's are the worst performing mortgages, the government have found a way to make these perform and thus avoiding another bail out.

    CGT relief is gone do it's another reason why investors won't sell.

    The CGT relief is for 7 years. After that people can and will sell if in profit. If BTL mortgages are the "worst performing" it's because landlords are already deliberately not paying their mortgage. There is plenty of money coming in.


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    #17
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    mr_seer wrote: »
    Spoke to an estate agent today who confirmed that viewings have been slowing steadily since April. In the last few weeks they are getting virtually nobody in to viewings. Prices would have fallen anyway I suspect but the new CB proposals will just accelerate the correction

    What area(s) does he/she cover?


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    #18
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    mr_seer wrote: »
    Spoke to an estate agent today who confirmed that viewings have been slowing steadily since April. In the last few weeks they are getting virtually nobody in to viewings. Prices would have fallen anyway I suspect but the new CB proposals will just accelerate the correction

    What area(s) does he/she cover?


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    #19
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    gaius c wrote: »
    Got it.
    Source is Mantissa on the pin.

    ugAh0sj.png

    This chart isn't for increasing prices, it's for changes in the price once it's already been listed. Fair enough if all the changes are in one direction but the spread in both directions indicates that the market hasn't a clue where real pricing is at.

    An interesting graph but heavily biased by the fact that a small percentage of prices increases are published compared to price decreases


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    #20
    mr_seer
    Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭mr_seer


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    What area(s) does he/she cover?

    Dublin North. He was referring to the whole Dublin market and got his information from their weekly sales meeting


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    #21
    Celtic Runner
    Registered Users Posts: 11 ✭Celtic Runner


    The madness is still out there. Viewed a property during the week which had an asking price of 400k. It was the first viewing and according to the agent one couple bid 450k. Don't know why, but we went to view again this morning as that bid was subject to the couple selling their own property only to be told that another bid was lodged and the current bid was 470k. Maybe an exception rather than the rule but incredible to see a 70k jump in bids in the space of 2 days


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    #22
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    Celtic Runner wrote: »
    The madness is still out there. Viewed a property during the week which had an asking price of 400k. It was the first viewing and according to the agent one couple bid 450k. Don't know why, but we went to view again this morning as that bid was subject to the couple selling their own property only to be told that another bid was lodged and the current bid was 470k. Maybe an exception rather than the rule but incredible to see a 70k jump in bids in the space of 2 days

    Not unusual asking price is unrealistically low to draw the crowd


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    #23
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    handlemaster wrote: »
    Not unusual asking price is unrealistically low to draw the crowd

    Most estate agents won't even take bids from buyers, subject to sale of their own property, anymore. The offer of 450k- should not have been accepted.


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    #24
    assetcolum
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 59 ✭✭assetcolum


    What kind of property is it ?

    Anyone who pays 470k for a property in Ireland is insane imo

    If you convert that to dollars that is well over half a million

    You could get an absolute Mansion in the States for that kind of money as opposed to a shoebox in Dublin with it's c**p weather and ugly sites


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    #25
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    assetcolum wrote: »
    What kind of property is it ?

    Anyone who pays 470k for a property in Ireland is insane imo

    If you convert that to dollars that is well over half a million

    You could get an absolute Mansion in the States for that kind of money as opposed to a shoebox in Dublin with it's c**p weather and ugly sites

    Location, location location


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    #26
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    assetcolum wrote: »
    What kind of property is it ?

    Anyone who pays 470k for a property in Ireland is insane imo

    If you convert that to dollars that is well over half a million

    You could get an absolute Mansion in the States for that kind of money as opposed to a shoebox in Dublin with it's c**p weather and ugly sites

    Its all perception.
    Irish Central numbers thousands of Irish/Americans, who would up sticks and move (home) at the drop of a hat, given the opportunity.
    You may bitch about the weather- others will extoll the virtues of our uniquely beautiful landscapes, our largely unspoilt countryside, the hidden gems all round the country- and indeed, the way of life we live here. You may not appreciate these things- but if you go to live abroad for a few years- you'll rapidly develop a nostalgia for many of the little things that we take for granted here.

    Life isn't nearly as bad as most of us make out here- our politicians may be imbecilic morons- but we have a beautiful country, some of the best food in the world, and a way of life, second to none.


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    #27
    ted1
    Registered Users Posts: 23,266 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    assetcolum wrote: »
    What kind of property is it ?

    Anyone who pays 470k for a property in Ireland is insane imo

    If you convert that to dollars that is well over half a million

    You could get an absolute Mansion in the States for that kind of money as opposed to a shoebox in Dublin with it's c**p weather and ugly sites
    I quite like Dublin, the prices here are comparable to other cities in developed countries.
    If you don't like it here, then why stay? i'll drive you to the airport.


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    #28
    assetcolum
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 59 ✭✭assetcolum


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    Its all perception.
    Irish Central numbers thousands of Irish/Americans, who would up sticks and move (home) at the drop of a hat, given the opportunity.
    You may bitch about the weather- others will extoll the virtues of our uniquely beautiful landscapes, our largely unspoilt countryside, the hidden gems all round the country- and indeed, the way of life we live here. You may not appreciate these things- but if you go to live abroad for a few years- you'll rapidly develop a nostalgia for many of the little things that we take for granted here.

    Life isn't nearly as bad as most of us make out here- our politicians may be imbecilic morons- but we have a beautiful country, some of the best food in the world, and a way of life, second to none.

    I do agree with you on that but i have lived in OZ, Zurich,USA etc and while i do feel Ireland has its perks i have to admit the price of property for the actual quality of it is obscene

    Buddies of mine have bought practically Mansions compared to whats on offer here in Phoenix, Miami , California etc

    All over 2000sq ft and most importantly all under 250k Euro

    Your post does make sense but when you think long term i feel Ireland is slowly losing it's identity , just look at since we joined the EU which is only a short time ago in the scheme of things (14 years or so) look at how much Ireland has changed for the worst and think about how bad it will get while we are still in the EU/Don't have tough immigration laws like OZ/USA/Canada etc


    Sure ask any yank who visits Ireland they can't even find any Irish people in Dublin city center anymore


    Tourism will also go down the drain as mass immigration takes it's grip


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    #29
    assetcolum
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 59 ✭✭assetcolum


    ted1 wrote: »
    I quite like Dublin, the prices here are comparable to other cities in developed countries.
    If you don't like it here, then why stay? i'll drive you to the airport.

    I'll drive myself thank you very much


    I work overseas (rigs) and i have a deposit saved up (100k) i just feel it would be a waste to dump it into property in Dublin , can't justify it what soever

    I am from Dublin myself but can only see it getting worse

    No value for money either


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    #30
    Celtic Runner
    Registered Users Posts: 11 ✭Celtic Runner


    True, all about the location.

    The property is a 3 bed semi in Portmarnock about 2 mins walk from the beach. We knew that the property would go for more than 400k but were surprised to see it jump 70k in two days.


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    #31
    spin777
    Registered Users Posts: 56 ✭✭spin777


    I think the CB will scale down the restriction possibly 15% deposit and 4-4.5 times earnings. Market will react with buyers being nervous to buy early in the year, but demand and prices should start to increase again gradually in the second half of the year and level out mid 2016. Maybe 5% increase in 2015, nothing like we saw this year.

    I think the government made a big mistake by not giving an incentive in the budget to increase supply. If government surpress prices too much developers won't build. Increasing supply is essential to solving the demand and rental crisis.


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