GK selection

Lemlin wrote: »

I reckon I'll be selling. Only 4.5 mil for Krul so can bank 0.7.

Edit: think I'll go with Green instead.

Lemlin wrote: »

I had planned to go with Krul but, now that I've looked at fixtures and read this post, Green is looking more appealing.


Krul:
West Ham away
Burnley away
Chelsea home
Arsenal away
Sunderland home
Man United away
Everton home
Burnley home
Chelsea away
Saints home

Green:
Leicester home
Swansea away
Burnley home
Everton away
West Brom home
Arsenal away
Palace home
Swansea home
Burnley away
Man United home

The only thing is Green away form has been dire this year. It does seem to get better though (he got 3 pts 3 times out of his 4 last away games which include Chelsea and Saints) thanks to his ability to get pts from saves...

Lemlin wrote: »

In his next ten, he only has four away though and one of those is Burnley. My worry about going with a 'keeper like Courtois is that Cech will be given a game over Xmas.

Yeah good point.

And I repeat he got 3 pts away thrice out of his last 4 (which include Chelsea and Saints). So he's getting better.

Just a note on Krul.

He's currently on 46 pts. You can actually break his 46 pts in two groups of 23 pts. First one was achieved in the first 9 GWs. Second during the last 3 :eek:.

Well here I go again with my GK stats analysis.

I "only" did it for 15 GKs (Forster, De Gea, Lloris, Guzan, Fabianski, Heaton, Hart, Courtois, Speroni, Green, Foster, Adrián, Begovic, Pantilimon & McGregor). I felt the other ones were either never cited and considered (Szczesny, Mignolet, Howard) or currently injured (Krul, Schmeichel).

I wanted to post it earlier in the week so that the WCers could take food for thoughts from it but time caught me up... Anyway I'll now just post a few comments so that the major trends (I see) are outlined .

Table 1: Total Points - home/away
GK | played | home pts ||| GK | played | away pts
Forster | 11 | 52 ||| Guzan | 10 | 40
Heaton | 10 | 49 ||| Foster | 10 | 39
Lloris | 11 | 47 ||| Pantilimon | 6 | 37
De Gea | 10 | 46 ||| Hart | 9 | 35
Green | 10 | 45 ||| De Gea | 10 | 34
Adrián | 11 | 43 ||| Courtois | 11 | 33
Fabianski | 9 | 42 ||| Fabianski | 10 | 33
Hart | 9 | 37 ||| Speroni | 10.6 | 32
Guzan | 10 | 35 ||| Lloris | 9 | 30
Courtois | 7.3 | 35 ||| Forster | 9 | 29
Speroni | 9 | 34 | | | Begovic | 10 | 29
McGregor | 8 | 32 | | | McGregor | 7 | 24
Begovic | 10 | 30 | | | Heaton | 10 | 24
| | | | | Green | 9 | 21
Foster |9 | 23 | | | Adrián | 9 | 19
Pantilimon | 5 | 19 | | |

If you plan on rotating, beware that Guzan, Foster & Panti pick (much) more pts away than home!

Table 2: Points per game - home/away
GK | home ppg ||| GK | away ppg
Heaton | 4.9 ||| Pantilimon | 6.17
Courtois | 4.79 ||| Guzan | 4
Forster | 4.73 ||| Foster | 3.9
Fabianski | 4.67 ||| Hart | 3.89
De Gea | 4.6 ||| McGregor | 3.43
Green | 4.5 ||| De Gea | 3.4
Lloris | 4.27 ||| Lloris | 3.33
Hart | 4.11 ||| Fabianski | 3.3
McGregor| 4 ||| Forster | 3.22
Adrián | 3.91 ||| Speroni | 3.02
Pantilimon | 3.8 | | | Courtois | 3
Speroni | 3.78 | | | Begovic | 2.9
Guzan | 3.5 | | | Heaton | 2.4
Begovic | 3 | | | Green | 2.33
Foster | 2.56 | | | Adrián | 2.11

As crazy as it sounds, Heaton is the best keeper at home :eek: !!!
Pantilimon has the best overall ppg ratio with an insane away record :eek: !!!

Foster home record is worrying ahead of the WC. Can Pullis improve this figure? Guzan sounds like a much better pick for a similar price.

For Green & Heaton it's the opposite. Away record is a concern... Green perfect pairing is Courtois so we can forget about it. Speroni offers a 34 GWs perfect rotation but not sure is worth it. Heaton perfect rotator is McGregor. For £9.4m they're probably the best pairing in the game (though McGregor away form could mean a few big pts on the bench). Burnley offers a 30 GWs perfect rotation with both Villa & Stoke. But I don't think these ones are good (Guzan gets too many pts away & Begovic is too low average overall).

Table 3: Total Pts gained from CS, Pts from saves, BP & saved pen - home rankings
Goalkeepers | played | TPG| || CS | PfS | BP | SP
Heaton | 10 | 32 || | 4 | 7 | 4 | 1
Forster | 11 | 32 || | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0
Green | 10 | 30 | || 4 | 9 | 5 | 0
Lloris | 11 | 29 || | 4 | 8 | 5 | 0
De Gea | 10 | 27 || | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1
Courtois | 7.3 | 25 | || 6 | 1 | 0 | 0
Fabianski | 9 | 25 | || 5 | 5 | 0 | 0
Adrián | 11 | 24 || | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0
McGregor | 8 | 20 | || 2 | 4 | 3 | 1
Hart | 9 | 20 || | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1
Guzan | 10 | 20 | || 3 | 8 | 0 | 0
| | | | | | | |
Speroni | 9 | 17 | | | 2 | 4 | 0 |1
Pantilimon | 5 | 16 | | | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0
Begovic | 10 | 14 | | | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0
Foster | 9 | 11 | | | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0

If you envisage cheap GKs, Foster's home record is again worrying. Heaton & Green are the cheap stars here.

For the big guns it's about even. Courtois showing the best stats but when he's rotated you're unlikely to have a second playing keeper considering the cash he's hoovering by himself.

Table 4: Total Pts gained from CS, Pts from saves, BP & saved pen - away rankings
Goalkeepers | played | TPG| || CS | PfS | BP | SP
Foster | 10 | 25 || | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0
Pantilimon | 6 | 23 || | 3 | 7 | 4 | 0
Fabianski | 10 | 23 || | 3 | 10 | 1 | 0
Guzan | 10 | 23 | || 4 | 6 | 1 | 0
Hart | 9 | 21 | || 4 | 4 | 1 | 0
De Gea | 10 | 17 || | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0
Speroni | 10.6 | 17 | || 3 | 5 | 0 | 0
Lloris | 9 | 16 | || 1 | 6 | 1 | 1
Courtois | 11 | 16 | || 2 | 8 | 0 | 0
McGregor | 7 | 14 | || 1 | 3 | 2 | 1
Green | 9 | 13 | || 0 | 8 | 0 | 1
Begovic | 9 | 13 | || 2 | 4 | 1 | 0
Heaton | 10 | 13 | || 1 | 9 | 0 | 0
Forster | 9 | 12 | || 2 | 4 | 0 | 0
| | | | | | | |
Adrián | 9 | 7 || | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0

Again, Foster, Panti & Guzan away record are impressive.

By coupling home and away tables Fabianski shows pretty consistent stats. He could be a good pick for the remainder of the season. Though if you want to go cheap, Guzan & Panti are the best candidates.

Table 5: Total Pts loss from goals conceded, YC & RC - home rankings
Goalkeepers | played | TPL | || -1 | -2 | YC | RC
De Gea | 10 | 1 | || 1 | 0 | 0 | 0
Hart | 9 | 1 || | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0
Fabianski | 9 | 1 || | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0
Courtois | 7.3 | 1 || | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0
Forster | 11 | 2 || | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0
Adrián | 11 | 3 || | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0
Heaton | 10 | 3 || | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0
Pantilimon | 5 | 3 | || 1 | 1 | 0 | 0
Lloris | 11 | 4 || | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0
Begovic | 10 | 4 | | | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0
Speroni | 9 | 4 | | | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0
Foster | 9 | 4 | | | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0
McGregor | 8 | 4 | || 2 | 1 | 0 | 0
Guzan | 10 | 5 | || 3 | 0 | 2 | 0
Green | 9 | 5 | || 4 | 0 | 1 | 0

This is (of course) to be coupled with Tables 4 & 1.

What's interesting is e.g. Green. Despite being bottom here, the amount of saves he makes (Table 4) put him in the top5 on the overall table (Table 1). With him, don't panick when he concedes, he should get you some save pts to compensate.

Forster is an interesting one too. Opposite to Green. He doesn't lose much pts from goals conceded but doesn't gain enough from his saves. He's only relying on his CS.

Table 6: Total Pts loss from goals conceded, YC & RC - away rankings
Goalkeepers | played | TPL | || -1 | -2 | YC | RC
Forster | 9 | 1 | || 1 | 0 | 0 | 0
Pantilimon | 6 | 2 || | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0
Foster | 10 | 3 || | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0
De Gea | 10 | 3 || | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0
Guzan | 10 | 3 | || 3 | 0 | 0 | 0
Hart | 9 | 4 | || 3 | 0 | 1 | 0
Lloris | 9 | 4 | || 2 | 1 | 0 | 0
Begovic | 9 | 4| || 3 | 0 | 1 | 0
McGregor | 7 | 4 | || 4 | 0 | 0 | 0
Courtois | 11 | 5 | || 2 | 1 | 1 | 0
Adrián | 9 | 6 || | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0
Speroni | 10.6 | 7 | || 6 | 0 | 1 | 0
Heaton | 10 | 7 | || 4 | 1 | 1 | 0
Fabianski | 10 | 10 || | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1
Green | 9 | 10 | || 6 | 2 | 0 | 0

Ditto Table 5.

Shows again Panti, Foster & Guzan amazing away records.
We see the limits of Green here. Away his saves can't make up enough for the amount he concedes.


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To conclude, it's all about finding the best compromise for a price that suits your team.

I haven't taken enough time yet to digest all that but from a first look, I'm going to reconsider Panti & Guzan. I was almost set on Foster but may spend some extra £0.1m to get the Villa or Sunderland combo instead of the WB's one. I can't wait to see if Pullis makes a significant impact there though WC is coming too soon to really see that I suppose (even If I play it for GW23).