Will FF ever rise again?

nickobrien1985 · 27-02-2011 2:22pm #1

I personally can't see FF getting anywhere for the next 15yrs, maybe I'm wrong.

But does anyone know of any examples in other countries where a party was completely destroyed in an election but rose again not long after?

Pal · 27-02-2011 2:25pm

Fine Gael 9 years ago

nickobrien1985 · 27-02-2011 2:26pm

Fine Gael were in opposition though.
THey didn't make decisions.

FF are now associated with IMF/EU bailout, unemployment, drink, and emigration

McLoughlin · 27-02-2011 2:27pm

nickobrien1985 wrote: »

I personally can't see FF getting anywhere for the next 15yrs, maybe I'm wrong.

But does anyone know of any examples in other countries where a party was completely destroyed in an election but rose again not long after?

Ireland 2002 with Fine Gael and rose again in 2011.

Godge · 27-02-2011 2:30pm

Fianna Fail got 17.4% of the vote and look like taking 19 seats.
Labour got 19.4% of the vote and look like taking 39 seats.

So not much of a recovery to get them to Labour levels. That 2% could be easy to get back next time if the Government take the necessary unpopular decisions but they are not enough to drag us out of the mess by the next election.

The big problem they have is the age profile of their TDs. Most are towards the older end of the spectrum.

wow sierra · 27-02-2011 2:38pm

37% of people in the RTE exit poll think FF will lead a Govenment in the next 10 years. RTÉ say "only 37%". I think it is an incredible figure and if I was a FF party member I would be using that as a basis of saying, yes we will be back.

This is the same RTÉ exit poll that got the election result right. I doubt you would get 37% saying Labour would lead a Government in 10 years time.

Like the previous poster pointed out their vote wasn't as bad as their seat numbers, they are not "Transfer friendly" at the moment.

The next local elections should give an idea if they can make some gains there. Probably never be by far the biggest party again but they haven't gone away. If labour had managed to get the left vote that went to other left candidates then it would have been more difficult for Fianna Fáil to revover.

later12 · 27-02-2011 2:41pm

I think if you look at the young candidates this, such as Averil Power, and those young candidates who did take first time seats, such as Robert Troy, you will see that the party is there to be rebuilt. It will be a challenge, but it will also be a tremendous opportunity.

As a man who has previously voted Fianna Fail and supported Fianna Fail I am personally delighted to see the back of the three Marys, the likes of Dick Roche and Conor Lenihan.

In my opinion, now is the time to retrace the party of Sean Lemass, to do what he did fifty years ago after DeValera and his ilk almost destroyed Fianna Fail; and rebuild and rebuild and rebuild. As the new opposition, Fianna Fail stand on a strong platform do do that. If Eamon Gilmore had decided he would go into opposition, the Fianna Fail would have been well and truly finished.

27-02-2011 2:43pm

they will be back in 2 elections time

later12 · 27-02-2011 2:43pm

wow sierra wrote: »

This is the same RTÉ exit poll that got the election result right.

In fact, it is the same exit poll that underestimated the FF vote in every Dublin constituency, sometimes by up to 8%.

Liam Byrne · 27-02-2011 3:56pm

They need to be honest with themselves and realise that they are hated because of massive fvckups and corruption and cronyism and lies, and not because - as everyone kicked out tried to spin it - because "people just wanted change" or due to "tough decisions"

iamwhoiam · 27-02-2011 4:20pm

Liam Byrne wrote: »

They need to be honest with themselves and realise that they are hated because of massive fvckups and corruption and cronyism and lies, and not because - as everyone kicked out tried to spin it - because "people just wanted change" or due to "tough decisions"

I fully agree and wanted to scream that at the teli .

Balmed Out · 27-02-2011 4:23pm

They will redefine themselves and come back to a degree. They need to start gaining more power on local councils and will be trying to do so while at the same time financially destitute. itll be 10 years though and even then they would be doing well to get to the sixty seat mark. Had thought they would be ousted in previous elections but they were not so expected them to do a lot better then they have done this time year.

5 yrs time will be an interesting election.
fg one would assume will lose support as they have no choice but to make lots of very unpopular decisions.
labour likely to be in power too and same story.
ff itll be another election at least before people less bitter towards them.
sf likely to get a massive boost especially if labour do go into governemnt.

dan_d · 27-02-2011 4:26pm

Course they will.
I'm not putting a timetable on it, but it's how it goes.It's human nature.Governments rise and fall. Another few generations, this will all be consigned to the history books.
The mistake a lot of people make is that thinking things can never change, and the way we are right now will always stay. Things always change.Nothing is a constant.Not banks, not Governments, not political parties, nothing.Death and taxes are the only constants - it's a cliche for a reason!!!!:D

Sierra Oscar · 27-02-2011 4:28pm

Liam Byrne wrote: »

They need to be honest with themselves and realise that they are hated because of massive fvckups and corruption and cronyism and lies, and not because - as everyone kicked out tried to spin it - because "people just wanted change" or due to "tough decisions"

As a member of Fianna Fáil I can tell you that the vast majority of its members know tremendous mistakes were made. Fianna Fáil did undertake plenty of projects during the boom which are still with us to our advantage today, but we realize that it is no use being mega-rich today only to be broke tomorrow. FF members realize that we were the party in government and the managing of the nations finances was our responsibility and it is time to face up to the mistakes that were made and ensure such mistakes are never made again.

Very interesting times ahead for FF - its quite clear that the "old guard" is now gone and the task of rebuilding the party will pass to a new generation.

Rafa1977 · 27-02-2011 4:29pm

Deleted User wrote: »

they will be back in 2 elections time

I think that they will be back next time we have election, as there is still a lot of stupid people in this country.

Dyr · 27-02-2011 4:36pm

They're vote management was s**te was because their TD's are selfish and myopic. Proper vote management will see them recover a fair bit next time. The really interesting thing is that about 20% of rural ireland have been confirmed as either morons or traitors :mad:. A lot of that 20% should be in their cold graves within the next two elections though.

Fianna Fails real problem is that what made them players was their access to power and influence. Take a look at how many of their TD's bailed on them once they realised that was no longer the case. Their real problem is that Fianna Fail needs power and pull to keep their backers with them. They've lost that now locally and nationally, who's going to court a string puller when all their strings have been cut?

irishh_bob · 27-02-2011 4:43pm

irish voters are good at doing what mammy and daddy tells them so FF will most likely resurface , this election ( in time ) may proove to be somewhat of an anomoly

Capt'n Midnight · 27-02-2011 4:45pm

Godge wrote: »

Fianna Fail got 17.4% of the vote and look like taking 19 seats.
Labour got 19.4% of the vote and look like taking 39 seats.

So not much of a recovery to get them to Labour levels. That 2% could be easy to get back next time if the Government take the necessary unpopular decisions but they are not enough to drag us out of the mess by the next election.

The big problem they have is the age profile of their TDs. Most are towards the older end of the spectrum.

The big problem is that they aren't attracting transfers outside of their core support. Yes they have lost seats by running too many canidates, until the transfers are examined in detail we can;t even be sure if the would have done better with just one per constituency since people are voting for the man not the party. People are transferring to SF to an extent not seen before, FF had better pray the next government goes full term to give them time to recoup.

Liam Byrne · 27-02-2011 4:46pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

As a member of Fianna Fáil I can tell you that the vast majority of its members know tremendous mistakes were made.

If that is true, then why did every defeated candidate lie, further damaging (if that is even possible) their credibility?

I was screaming at the tv and nearly threw something through it when both Cowen and a young guy from Donegal spouted the lies.

If the guy from Donegal is representative of the new generation, then there's no appetite for accountability and truth.

Iomega Man · 27-02-2011 4:48pm

Just watch them hi-jack 2016...

They'll be back

Capt'n Midnight · 27-02-2011 4:49pm

nickobrien1985 wrote: »

FF are now associated with IMF/EU bailout, unemployment, drink, and emigration

and endemic corruption

and squandering the proceeds of the celtic tiger , apart from the toll roads what have we to show for it ?

Sir Oxman · 27-02-2011 4:52pm

later10 wrote: »

In fact, it is the same exit poll that underestimated the FF vote in every Dublin constituency, sometimes by up to 8%.

I believe they were underestimated in Dublin by 4% - it was taken as a region, not individual constituencies.

Sir Oxman · 27-02-2011 4:53pm

later10 wrote: »

I think if you look at the young candidates this, such as Averil Power, and those young candidates who did take first time seats, such as Robert Troy, you will see that the party is there to be rebuilt. It will be a challenge, but it will also be a tremendous opportunity.

As a man who has previously voted Fianna Fail and supported Fianna Fail I am personally delighted to see the back of the three Marys, the likes of Dick Roche and Conor Lenihan.

In my opinion, now is the time to retrace the party of Sean Lemass, to do what he did fifty years ago after DeValera and his ilk almost destroyed Fianna Fail; and rebuild and rebuild and rebuild. As the new opposition, Fianna Fail stand on a strong platform do do that. If Eamon Gilmore had decided he would go into opposition, the Fianna Fail would have been well and truly finished.

That hasn't been decided yet.

ArtSmart · 27-02-2011 5:06pm

no.

twill be 10 years before they see the light of day. and by then
the new voters wont go for them and the old will be em, gone.

Daegerty · 27-02-2011 5:15pm

They could be back with a vengeance as soon as the next election if it seems FG let us down

iphone 5 · 27-02-2011 5:17pm

I have to say that FF took a major hit in the polls but it was based on anger for what has happened to the country.
I think we will be back here in 4 years time all gunning for FG and Labour for the disastrous job they made of "Rebuilding" the country and we will probably have no choice but to vote them back in as we will still be a bit raw after what FF done. Then 4 years later we will be back again this time burning Effigies on the streets of Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore. (Probably not them as they will be stabbed in the back by their collagues in the mean time) While the government is falling down around them FF will be working in the background building the party and getting votes.
FF will then come rolling into town a new party with a new vision and all will be forgotten and take power once again leading the nation to glory once again.
My point is that Us irish have very short memories and the transfer of FF voters to FG is only a temporary thing and us irish are creatures of habit and like a mother telling there child when there bold to stand in the corner eventually she will tell him to come out and give him a big hugg and all is forgotten

Biggins · 27-02-2011 5:26pm

iphone 5 wrote: »

I have to say that FF took a major hit in the polls but it was based on anger for what has happened to the country.
I think we will be back here in 4 years time all gunning for FG and Labour for the disastrous job they made of "Rebuilding" the country and we will probably have no choice but to vote them back in as we will still be a bit raw after what FF done...

Therein lies the 'rub'.

If in a period of time, FG (and whoever) continues to do things not to the publics liking (cowering to Europe, more tax, services cut etc, take your pick...) then knowing that the remaining youth and middle aged DO NOT want FF back in either, they might respond even more so the other remaining orgs in the country yet again in bigger numbers.

That means Sinn Fein and co...

Just as a great deal of people voted for anything but FF, in the whole this time around, for FG,
they might yet again when seeing FG maybe just as bad as FF, go elsewhere yet again with their vote. Staying clear of both of them then.
Such might be the short space of time and a lot more willing to remember and not forgive, at the next election we might see even more surprising radical change!

...Just a thought.

ArtSmart · 27-02-2011 5:51pm

FF need an identity to regain wide appeal. what's that identity gonna be?
In the cities - what? Radical? nope. Left? nope. Right? nope. Nationalist? nope. all those identities are taken.

so rural.

GAA? yes. Radical? nope. Farmers party? nope. Left? nope. Right? yes. Nationalist? yes.

so FF only option is Rural, right-wing, nationalist. of course, SF will be getting the boot in even in that territory.

so where they gonna fit?

FF are destined to minority party status from here on in. - their only option power wise is in coalition and as either the minority party or as the largest in a broad rainbow.

FF as we know it are gone.

ETA just to clarify.

FF had broad appeal, from inner city voters, to young farmers, to nationalist who want the softer option, to soft radicals, to older trade unionists, to the working class and the lower middle class - almost the whole shebang.
but now?

fck all left but the rural old blinkered and insane

Biggins · 27-02-2011 6:04pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

...its quite clear that the "old guard" is now gone and the task of rebuilding the party will pass to a new generation.

I would disagree with this. As mentioned already about Vincent Brown and a FF member, even last night senior FF'ers were unwilling to listen to others and still unwilling to admit the parties sins of the past. Add to that their unwillingness to admit all mistakes of the past - instead try to brush over them - and we still have still in FF with Michael Martin leading the charge by example even through the election trail by action and words, that a good deal of the old guard and the ways of denying/operation are still ingrained with the Fianna Fail organisation.

Its STILL does not bode well for the future of Fianna Fail.
Its no half measures the public wants and no PR jobs. Its truth and a rout of the still existing systemic corrupt, living in denial within.

If FF can't do that or are completely unwilling to that is required, once again I say, they are wasting their time - and ours.

ArtSmart · 27-02-2011 6:12pm

Pal wrote: »

Fine Gael 9 years ago

fine Gael never had, and prob never will have, the wide urban/rural popularity that FF had. so they were building from a small base and with the wave of public anger they mopped up from around that tight base.

FF had wide appeal but what was gradually eroding has now being swept away - most of it forever.

FG rebuilt their party and used effective vote mgmt, but they are extremely unlikely to repeat this performance.

3ndahalfof6 · 27-02-2011 6:20pm

Bambi wrote: »

They're vote management was s**te was because their TD's are selfish and myopic. Proper vote management will see them recover a fair bit next time. The really interesting thing is that about 20% of rural ireland have been confirmed as either morons or traitors :mad:. A lot of that 20% should be in their cold graves within the next two elections though.

Fianna Fails real problem is that what made them players was their access to power and influence. Take a look at how many of their TD's bailed on them once they realised that was no longer the case. Their real problem is that Fianna Fail needs power and pull to keep their backers with them. They've lost that now locally and nationally, who's going to court a string puller when all their strings have been cut?

spot on.

Fitzerb · 27-02-2011 6:47pm

First things first. Well done to Enda and FG. The best of luck to them on what will be a difficult task.
Regardless of the Nations current plight and the role FF played in us arriving at the current recession I doubt FF would have got re-elected into Government for a fourth term.
Their vote would have being down because people would be not want a party in power for 19 years, but what we don’t know is by how percentage points they would have being down.

In my view the vote collapsed for a number of reasons.

1.The errors made in the last three years with the banking policy.
2. How they managed the IMF bail out.
3. Some people would have wanted a change regardless of how well we were doing.
4. Taking the blame in full for the expenses scandals. (some of it justified)
5. The perception that all FF is corrupt, which is not the case.
6. Not managing the new world of social media
7. The change of leadership which was necessary did not allow enough time for the right election team to be put together and resulted in chaos within Head Office.
8. The timing of the election was insane. To run an election after taking money from peoples pay pack was daft

All the above said in the long run it might be a good thing. They will have to bring in new fresh young blood with no baggage who are media friendly. They also need to progress their plans to expand into N Ireland ASAP. They also need a strategy for Dublin to try and get some of it back.
Looking at the results (not in detail) but some seats were lost by small margins. Without have all the details it seems FG increased its overall vote by 10%. That is not great considering the fall of FF. The number of votes for SF in Dublin remained static with little or no transfers from the main parties. Labour still did not make the break through outside Leinster or Munster that they needed. So all is not lost for FF.

Anyway for the moment lets wish Enda the best of luck we all need our Country to get back on the road to success.

Hasschu · 27-02-2011 8:00pm

Yes FF will make a comeback whether we like it or not. The political centre in Ireland by European standards is slightly right of centre and has been for almost 80 years. FF was most adept at moving within that little band and has enjoyed the fruits of good positioning since independence. In most people's minds FF is the natural governing party and people are irritated with their behaviour over the past three years and have punished them for their sins. Now attention shifts to Enda who is a nice, reasonably intelligent, sober man but not the type to jump on the ramparts and invigorate the rabble. In a year or so you will hear mention of how Bertie and Brian had their good points and maybe FF made mistakes. The reasoning will go "but sure don't we all make mistakes". In the meantime the economy stumbles along with high unemployment and reduced benefits Enda is helpless because the circumstances are hopeless. At some point between 1.5 and 3 years in the pressure for an election will be intense. Now FG and labour if they become entwined with FG are a spent force. Now enter the FF ex altar boys, cleansed of their sins the white hope and shining star.

swampgas · 27-02-2011 9:08pm

I think the way a party leaves power has a major impact on how long they take to recover.

There are many people who lived in the UK during the Thatcher years (I was one of them) who wouldn't vote Tory even now if their life depended on it. I'm not saying that this is a valid view, just that it exists and is widely held.

I think FF might have imprinted themselves on the Irish psyche in a similar fashion - there may be a big chunk of the population who will forever associate FF with corruption, cronyism, and incompetence.

The FF brand is very badly damaged, it will take a long time before people dare to trust it again.

Will FF ever rise again?

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