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Very big turnout so far - who will benefit?

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    #32
    Kristopherus
    Registered Users Posts: 11,907 ✭✭✭✭Kristopherus


    Boy, do I hope you are right:)


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    #33
    Frank Bullitt
    Registered Users Posts: 11,301 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    The country benefits, its our given right to vote and I'm proud that so many people are doing it.

    Lots of young people (including myself) were at the polling station when I was there.


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    #34
    DoesNotCompute
    Registered Users Posts: 1,375 ✭✭✭DoesNotCompute


    If there is such a huge youth turnout as is being reported here, I have a feeling that the hard and moderate left parties will have the most to benefit from it. Angry, disillusioned, unemployed youths on the brink of emigration will certainly tend to favour the left. FG may also benefit from this, as the ABFF crowd come out in force.


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    #35
    county man
    Closed Accounts Posts: 120 ✭✭county man


    All of this is speculation.All will become clear from tomorrow morning.


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    #36
    delta_bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 4,567 ✭✭✭delta_bravo


    county man wrote: »
    All of this is speculation.All will become clear from tomorrow morning.

    Link?


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    #37
    Someone else
    Registered Users Posts: 36 ✭Someone else


    [Jackass] wrote: »
    FF will be the last to benefit from high turnout, they're being slated in the polls. The bigger the turn out, the more diluted the hardcore FF vote, the less seats they will win.

    You've also got to question why there would be an exceptionally high turnout. This tends to happen when there's a vast appetite for change. The larger the turnout, the larger the disastor this GE will be for FF, and good riddance to them.

    With a bit of luck.
    The poll on here may not be representative of the whole population but you can see trends none the less. I'm banking on the transfers not happening.

    FF
    Got 25/1 with PaddyPower for less than 10 seats.

    12/1 on less than 15 and 2/1 on less than 20.......

    so if they get less than 10 all 3 will pay out. :)

    Like the guy in the other thread linked from page 1

    I put.....€2 on each....:p

    I also got 5/4 on Greens getting 1 or more seats!!


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    #38
    JONJO THE MISER
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 12,333 ✭✭✭✭JONJO THE MISER


    :eek: upperchurch tipperary turnout so far is 76%.


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    #39
    irishh_bob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,700 ✭✭✭irishh_bob


    gandalf wrote: »
    I don't think so I would suspect it could benefit labour or the left wing candidates. Anyone I talked to today were motivated by one emotion to vote and that was anger and that certainly will not be good for FF.

    left wing canditates are less prominent outside dublin and the bulk of the population still lives outside dublin , the only thing we can take from this for certain is that its bad news for FF , people are motivated by a desire to give FF a bloody good thrashing


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    #40
    Uncle Ben
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,843 ✭✭✭Uncle Ben


    All those young voters that are out today in this const. Galway east, do appear to be in the main the young unemployed and minimum wage earners, people that I would imagine cast their votes in the left direction.


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    #41
    Cavehill Red
    Registered Users Posts: 6,109 ✭✭✭Cavehill Red


    irishh_bob wrote: »
    left wing canditates are less prominent outside dublin and the bulk of the population still lives outside dublin , the only thing we can take from this for certain is that its bad news for FF , people are motivated by a desire to give FF a bloody good thrashing

    This seems to be the consensus alright. But this is boards, not reality. We'll see the difference when we have the real results to compare to the boards poll. They won't remotely resemble each other.

    I really hope you're right, but there are parts of the country where FF tribalists just won't put an X next to FG. Nor will they vote SF. And in many places there is no Labour. What we do know from a big turnout is that this time everyone showed up - the youth, the grannies, the allegedly apathetic, the angry, the committed.

    The polls have FF at record lows, and people are discussing them going much lower again. I'd love to see it happen, love to see them wiped out for good in fact. But I have a bad feeling about this.

    For sure, they're going to come third. Carnage among their TDs and ministers. But in some parts of the country, other than to independents, I just don't see where the FF vote will go. And if it goes to independents it will just go around some circles and then back to FF.

    Mehawl gave them a bounce, and their candidates (many not directly implicated in the last government - senators, etc) are telling the public that there needs to be a strong opposition. And no one is going to admit in public they're voting FF at this point in time, but I guarantee you, some will.

    All the necessary ingredients are there for a surprising FF performance tomorrow. Frankly, over 25 would be surprising at this point given the national sentiment.
    But we're all agreed that this huge turnout isn't very predictable in its effects. There's no obvious Spring Tide, or Shinner breakthrough. Enda seemed to hit a glass ceiling about a week ago.

    I just have this little niggling worry that FF might have got a vote out. Maybe not a 1st preference vote, but perhaps enough preferences down the country to surprise us.


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    #42
    Lame Lantern
    Registered Users Posts: 368 ✭✭Lame Lantern


    The papers are calling the high turnout as a detriment to Fianna Fáil's chances, fyi.


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    #43
    Sibylla
    Closed Accounts Posts: 740 ✭✭✭Sibylla


    Fine Gael are most probably going to benefit from the increased turnout. In this election people feel a stronger need to vote, not in support of a party but in hope of the current economic situation improving. I know people who cancelled going away to vote. For the past few years most people have had terrible decisions made on their behalf without their say. This is the counties chance to finally have a say after this recession and it's consequences.


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    #44
    caseyann
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,941 ✭✭✭caseyann


    I saw a whole load of non Irish natives out voting today.I wonder who appeals to them.
    I am very happy to see they are taking an interest in the politics of Ireland.


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    #45
    Cavehill Red
    Registered Users Posts: 6,109 ✭✭✭Cavehill Red


    caseyann wrote: »
    I saw a whole load of non Irish natives out voting today.I wonder who appeals to them.
    I am very happy to see they are taking an interest in the politics of Ireland.

    You saw British and Irish citizens voting. No one else is entitled to vote in a Dail election.


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    #46
    caseyann
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,941 ✭✭✭caseyann


    Cavehill Red wrote: »
    You saw British and Irish citizens voting. No one else is entitled to vote in a Dail election.

    No British natives or Irish natives i saw. So yes they are not Irish natives.


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    #47
    dinorebel
    Registered Users Posts: 2,268 ✭✭✭dinorebel


    Cavehill Red wrote: »
    You saw British and Irish citizens voting. No one else is entitled to vote in a Dail election.
    I am English and have lived here since 1993 today is the 1st time I have voted.I actually felt that I had to vote this time as things have been so bad in the past I have been very wary of voting as I am not a national but this time thought it would be wrong not to vote.


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    #48
    caseyann
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,941 ✭✭✭caseyann


    dinorebel wrote: »
    I am English and have lived here since 1993 today is the 1st time I have voted.I actually felt that I had to vote this time as things have been so bad in the past I have been very wary of voting as I am not a national but this time thought it would be wrong not to vote.

    Fair play to you and congratulations on first vote in Éire :)


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    #49
    Cavehill Red
    Registered Users Posts: 6,109 ✭✭✭Cavehill Red


    caseyann wrote: »
    No British natives or Irish natives i saw. So yes they are not Irish natives.

    I'm just clarifying for you that only Irish and British citizens are permitted to vote in a Dail election.
    Therefore, whoever you saw carried Irish or British citizenship. How do you know where they were born?


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    #50
    caseyann
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,941 ✭✭✭caseyann


    Cavehill Red wrote: »
    I'm just clarifying for you that only Irish and British citizens are permitted to vote in a Dail election.
    Therefore, whoever you saw carried Irish or British citizenship. How do you know where they were born?
    Ah i see sorry,i think i knew that for myself already though :).I know that just happy to see them using it.
    Because of their accents(they are pretty obvious) and because i know alot of them :p


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    #51
    Cavehill Red
    Registered Users Posts: 6,109 ✭✭✭Cavehill Red


    caseyann wrote: »
    Ah i see sorry,i think i knew that for myself already though :).I know that just happy to see them using it.
    Because of their accents(they are pretty obvious) and because i know alot of them :p

    Given that mass immigration only really kicked off around 2001/2 and that it takes quite a few years to qualify for citizenship, this is the first election that naturalised immigrants would have had the chance to vote in any significant numbers.
    I would expect a higher number again next time out. Migrants tend to be active voters in any country when they are able. It's one way to seek to assert some ownership of their new identity.


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    #52
    Victor
    Registered Users Posts: 78,278 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    Cavehill Red wrote: »
    I really hope you're right, but there are parts of the country where FF tribalists just won't put an X next to FG. Nor will they vote SF. And in many places there is no Labour.
    Not quite, Labour are in every constituency (as are FF, FG, Green), although strongest in urban ones. http://www.boards.ie/vote/vis/party-support.php?id=30

    Of the others SF have 39/42, Independents (all but Cork NW) and the rest are either urban-dominated or localised.


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    #53
    Pal
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,115 ✭✭✭Pal


    Its the schools mid term break now. wouldnt that mean a lot of people are away.


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    #54
    Bullseye1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,731 ✭✭✭Bullseye1


    Hopefully the people of Ireland.


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    #55
    Victor
    Registered Users Posts: 78,278 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    Pal wrote: »
    Its the schools mid term break now. wouldnt that mean a lot of people are away.
    I'm not so sure that so many people went away this time, both on cost grounds and because of the election.


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