Very big turnout so far - who will benefit?

Cavehill Red

RTE reporting significantly higher turnout than 2007 across the whole country so far. If it stays that way, it'll probably end up over 72% nationally at least.

If that happens, which parties will benefit? The more people come out, the less chance I see of an FG single party government. But I don't see Labour benefitting either. Is this a closet FF vote? Or a tidal wave of Independents? A SF breakthrough?

Apparently it's largely young voters, incidentally.

maximoose

This guy certainly wont..

Cavehill Red

maximoose wrote: »

This guy certainly wont..

He has under 66%, but since it was 67% in the last referendum and this vote looks like being significantly higher, yup, that bet's not looking the best. 50% already voted in some stations, apparently and the afterwork rush yet to begin.

So on-topic, who will benefit from a big turnout? Personally, I suspect FF.

Zubeneschamali

FFs best hope was a low turnout in which FF/FG/Labour core voters came out, and everyone else said "ah, they're all the same". That's how they got in last time.

The higher the turnout, the more they get hammered. It'll help Labour/SF/ULA and independents more than FG, see the boards.ie poll.

robd

Cavehill Red wrote: »

RTE reporting significantly higher turnout than 2007 across the whole country so far. If it stays that way, it'll probably end up over 72% nationally at least.

If that happens, which parties will benefit? The more people come out, the less chance I see of an FG single party government. But I don't see Labour benefitting either. Is this a closet FF vote? Or a tidal wave of Independents? A SF breakthrough?

Apparently it's largely young voters, incidentally.

Yep. Hard to say exactly who will benefit. Easy to say who'll lose out though. FF's core vote is the death cheaters who always vote.

smilerxxx

Saw lots if yun uns too.. i'd like to think i'm one but i don't think I count! Everyone i have spoken to, has not gone FG or FF.. Indo's featuring high on everyones list! Interesting

gizmo555

Cavehill Red wrote: »

RTE reporting significantly higher turnout than 2007 across the whole country so far. If it stays that way, it'll probably end up over 72% nationally at least.

If that happens, which parties will benefit? The more people come out, the less chance I see of an FG single party government. . . . Is this a closet FF vote?

Why is it bad for FG? Since they are, by a long way, standing highest in the polls, why would a lower turnout favour them? On the other hand, very hard to believe that this is anything but bad for FF - people are not turning out in record numbers to record their unswerving support for them . . .

gandalf

Cavehill Red wrote: »

He has under 66%, but since it was 67% in the last referendum and this vote looks like being significantly higher, yup, that bet's not looking the best. 50% already voted in some stations, apparently and the afterwork rush yet to begin.

So on-topic, who will benefit from a big turnout? Personally, I suspect FF.

I don't think so I would suspect it could benefit labour or the left wing candidates. Anyone I talked to today were motivated by one emotion to vote and that was anger and that certainly will not be good for FF.

westtip

Cavehill Red wrote: »

He has under 66%, but since it was 67% in the last referendum and this vote looks like being significantly higher, yup, that bet's not looking the best. 50% already voted in some stations, apparently and the afterwork rush yet to begin.

So on-topic, who will benefit from a big turnout? Personally, I suspect FF.

They are saying on drivetime a lot of younger voters, I don't agree that this will benefit FF.

High turnout generall favours the left - so I reckon it will help ULA, Labour and the Shinners. I don't think anything can help FF they are in for a long long day and night tomorrow hanging on to final seats by their fingernails if they are lucky,,,,,,,,Shame.

Flimbos

In recent elections, older voters have turned out in higher numbers. And older voters may be more inclined to stick with FF.

So if a higher turnout is largely due to younger voters, who may not have bothered voting in the last election, this could work against FF.

jmayo

Cavehill Red wrote: »

He has under 66%, but since it was 67% in the last referendum and this vote looks like being significantly higher, yup, that bet's not looking the best. 50% already voted in some stations, apparently and the afterwork rush yet to begin.

So on-topic, who will benefit from a big turnout? Personally, I suspect FF.

I reckon that guy must work in Dept of Finance.

ei.sdraob

democracy benefits

westtip

smilerxxx wrote: »

Saw lots if yun uns too.. i'd like to think i'm one but i don't think I count! Everyone i have spoken to, has not gone FG or FF.. Indo's featuring high on everyones list! Interesting

Yes indeed and a lot of these indos will stay in the count and one by one be eliminated - the critical issue will be how the transfers from indos to the main parties go. More so in this election than any other, there are going to be a lot of counts not concluded on Saturday and possibly even Sunday - I just got this hunch that some final seats will come down to a handful of votes - more close run things than ever before.

jmayo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

FFs best hope was a low turnout in which FF/FG/Labour core voters came out, and everyone else said "ah, they're all the same". That's how they got in last time.

The higher the turnout, the more they get hammered. It'll help Labour/SF/ULA and independents more than FG, see the boards.ie poll.

Please oh please do not heed the boards poll.
That is a certain class of people (internet savvy and certain age range) and only a small representation of the real population.

IMHO ff will be the big losers in high turn out.

The spread to the other parties will depend on who exactly are coming out that normally would not.

If they are unemployed urban dwellers from disadavantaged areas then SF will get lot more votes.
If they are public servants then Labour get more votes.
If they are middle class who couldn't be ar***d voting before then FG can pick up votes.

How high FG do in terms of seats will be determined not alone by how many directly vote for them, but how are the votes spread across the parties and independents.

Cavehill Red

gizmo555 wrote: »

Why is it bad for FG? Since they are, by a long way, standing highest in the polls, why would a lower turnout favour them? On the other hand, very hard to believe that this is anything but bad for FF - people are not turning out in record numbers to record their unswerving support for them . . .

I think a high turnout might hurt the FG chances of bringing in those hard-fought final seats. I concur with others that there could be a big left vote out there - maybe splitting between Labour, SF, PBP etc. But a lot of those votes won't end up there. They'll transfer on in many cases, and to where, I really don't know.
I do have this chilling feeling that, like Tories and DUP voters, the FF hardcore have been lying to pollsters and that their vote will end up having been underplayed. Not by enough to get them within an ass's roar of anything but wipeout, but possibly enough to bump them to 30 seats or beyond.

ei.sdraob

jmayo wrote: »

IMHO ff will be the big losers in high turn out.

Yes it should hopefully be the final nail in the coffin, they are already infighting as seen in the last few days with Bertie back playing politics

smilerxxx

I can stand by my transfers. If I didn't like you, you didn't get a preference. simple as

westtip

jmayo wrote: »

Please oh please do not heed the boards poll.
That is a certain class of people (internet savvy and certain age range) and only a small representation of the real population.

IMHO ff will be the big losers in high turn out.

.

Yes indeed the boards poll is IMO going to be wildly wrong - the weighting of demographics clearly shows how skewed it is going to be - I might be wrong but it looks statistically wildly incorrect versus the demographics of the electorate.

takun

I was in a short queue in the polling booth in Kilkenny this morning (unusual in itself at about 11am) and the three other people waiting with me were all first time voters, 2 had taken a day off work in Dublin and come home to vote. The ones leaving the booth were older, but as I left 2 more had joined the queue who also looked under 25.

I've been voting since the '70s and I'd have to say its very unusual to see so many younger voters, though it could of course be coincidence. Gives me enormous hope that it's not the FF vote that upping the numbers.

danger man

iv never seen so meny people turing out to vote in my life.

its good to see,

bcmf

FWIW
I live very close to a polling station in Dublin North and have , since I moved here in mid 90's, never seen as many people heading into polling station. Weather of course is helping.

Inquitus

FG will benefit from a high turnout the most imo.

gandalf

I think the key will be the independents the vast majority of whom will not get near being elected but whose transfers will decide an awful lot of seats when they are eliminated. I reservedly agree that this election especially with the final seats could drag on well into Sunday.

Downlinz

I'd imagine the alternatives will benefit most from high turnout. SF and Independents mainly.

murphaph

FG and Lab will benefit the most as the large number of independents all split the vote and they are eliminated, their transfers will then not fall to FF but to FG and Lab as people do whatever they can but give a pref to FF.

I really hope this is the end of the FF party but we'll see.

I agree it's great to hear of high turnouts. I was dreading a totally apathetic public. If it is as high as being rumoured then well done to the electorate, regardless of who you voted for.

Up-n-atom!

I dunno, I know a lot of younger people swaying towards FG because some of the so-called 'experts' have said they have the most firm economic policies - a lot of these first-time voters aren't confident in their own opinon. I'd say anyone but FF is going to benefit overall - no one I know is voting FF.

joulter

i think there will be a huge youth vote. the vote counter on facebook has 110,000 on it now. if that is accurate thats a huge turnout. it will probably favour labour,sf and the left and to a lesser extent fg. ff could be in for the mother of all pastings!

NinjaTruncs

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

FFs best hope was a low turnout in which FF/FG/Labour core voters came out, and everyone else said "ah, they're all the same". That's how they got in last time.

There was an "expert" on Newstalk the other day saying a low turnout would mean FF voters were staying away, he suggested out of shame, and if the turnout was high it would be due to FF voters coming out and voting. IMO whether it's a low or high turnout FF will be hammered.

gsxr1

I think SF will really benefit. Those angry punters with not a pot to pee in are out for revenge .

Inquitus

gsxr1 wrote: »

I think SF will really benefit. Those angry punters with not a pot to pee in are out for revenge .

The only think voting SF will do is ensure everyone else ends up without a pot to piss in too!

[Jackass]

FF will be the last to benefit from high turnout, they're being slated in the polls. The bigger the turn out, the more diluted the hardcore FF vote, the less seats they will win.

You've also got to question why there would be an exceptionally high turnout. This tends to happen when there's a vast appetite for change. The larger the turnout, the larger the disastor this GE will be for FF, and good riddance to them.

Kristopherus

Boy, do I hope you are right:)

Frank Bullitt

The country benefits, its our given right to vote and I'm proud that so many people are doing it.

Lots of young people (including myself) were at the polling station when I was there.

DoesNotCompute

If there is such a huge youth turnout as is being reported here, I have a feeling that the hard and moderate left parties will have the most to benefit from it. Angry, disillusioned, unemployed youths on the brink of emigration will certainly tend to favour the left. FG may also benefit from this, as the ABFF crowd come out in force.

county man

All of this is speculation.All will become clear from tomorrow morning.

delta_bravo

county man wrote: »

All of this is speculation.All will become clear from tomorrow morning.

Link?

Someone else

[Jackass] wrote: »

FF will be the last to benefit from high turnout, they're being slated in the polls. The bigger the turn out, the more diluted the hardcore FF vote, the less seats they will win.

You've also got to question why there would be an exceptionally high turnout. This tends to happen when there's a vast appetite for change. The larger the turnout, the larger the disastor this GE will be for FF, and good riddance to them.

With a bit of luck.
The poll on here may not be representative of the whole population but you can see trends none the less. I'm banking on the transfers not happening.

FF
Got 25/1 with PaddyPower for less than 10 seats.

12/1 on less than 15 and 2/1 on less than 20.......

so if they get less than 10 all 3 will pay out.

Like the guy in the other thread linked from page 1

I put.....€2 on each....:p

I also got 5/4 on Greens getting 1 or more seats!!

JONJO THE MISER

:eek: upperchurch tipperary turnout so far is 76%.

irishh_bob

gandalf wrote: »

I don't think so I would suspect it could benefit labour or the left wing candidates. Anyone I talked to today were motivated by one emotion to vote and that was anger and that certainly will not be good for FF.

left wing canditates are less prominent outside dublin and the bulk of the population still lives outside dublin , the only thing we can take from this for certain is that its bad news for FF , people are motivated by a desire to give FF a bloody good thrashing

Uncle Ben

All those young voters that are out today in this const. Galway east, do appear to be in the main the young unemployed and minimum wage earners, people that I would imagine cast their votes in the left direction.

Cavehill Red

irishh_bob wrote: »

left wing canditates are less prominent outside dublin and the bulk of the population still lives outside dublin , the only thing we can take from this for certain is that its bad news for FF , people are motivated by a desire to give FF a bloody good thrashing

This seems to be the consensus alright. But this is boards, not reality. We'll see the difference when we have the real results to compare to the boards poll. They won't remotely resemble each other.

I really hope you're right, but there are parts of the country where FF tribalists just won't put an X next to FG. Nor will they vote SF. And in many places there is no Labour. What we do know from a big turnout is that this time everyone showed up - the youth, the grannies, the allegedly apathetic, the angry, the committed.

The polls have FF at record lows, and people are discussing them going much lower again. I'd love to see it happen, love to see them wiped out for good in fact. But I have a bad feeling about this.

For sure, they're going to come third. Carnage among their TDs and ministers. But in some parts of the country, other than to independents, I just don't see where the FF vote will go. And if it goes to independents it will just go around some circles and then back to FF.

Mehawl gave them a bounce, and their candidates (many not directly implicated in the last government - senators, etc) are telling the public that there needs to be a strong opposition. And no one is going to admit in public they're voting FF at this point in time, but I guarantee you, some will.

All the necessary ingredients are there for a surprising FF performance tomorrow. Frankly, over 25 would be surprising at this point given the national sentiment.
But we're all agreed that this huge turnout isn't very predictable in its effects. There's no obvious Spring Tide, or Shinner breakthrough. Enda seemed to hit a glass ceiling about a week ago.

I just have this little niggling worry that FF might have got a vote out. Maybe not a 1st preference vote, but perhaps enough preferences down the country to surprise us.

Lame Lantern

The papers are calling the high turnout as a detriment to Fianna Fáil's chances, fyi.

Sibylla

Fine Gael are most probably going to benefit from the increased turnout. In this election people feel a stronger need to vote, not in support of a party but in hope of the current economic situation improving. I know people who cancelled going away to vote. For the past few years most people have had terrible decisions made on their behalf without their say. This is the counties chance to finally have a say after this recession and it's consequences.

caseyann

I saw a whole load of non Irish natives out voting today.I wonder who appeals to them.
I am very happy to see they are taking an interest in the politics of Ireland.

Cavehill Red

caseyann wrote: »

I saw a whole load of non Irish natives out voting today.I wonder who appeals to them.
I am very happy to see they are taking an interest in the politics of Ireland.

You saw British and Irish citizens voting. No one else is entitled to vote in a Dail election.

caseyann

Cavehill Red wrote: »

You saw British and Irish citizens voting. No one else is entitled to vote in a Dail election.

No British natives or Irish natives i saw. So yes they are not Irish natives.

dinorebel

Cavehill Red wrote: »

You saw British and Irish citizens voting. No one else is entitled to vote in a Dail election.

I am English and have lived here since 1993 today is the 1st time I have voted.I actually felt that I had to vote this time as things have been so bad in the past I have been very wary of voting as I am not a national but this time thought it would be wrong not to vote.

caseyann

dinorebel wrote: »

I am English and have lived here since 1993 today is the 1st time I have voted.I actually felt that I had to vote this time as things have been so bad in the past I have been very wary of voting as I am not a national but this time thought it would be wrong not to vote.

Fair play to you and congratulations on first vote in Éire

Cavehill Red

caseyann wrote: »

No British natives or Irish natives i saw. So yes they are not Irish natives.

I'm just clarifying for you that only Irish and British citizens are permitted to vote in a Dail election.
Therefore, whoever you saw carried Irish or British citizenship. How do you know where they were born?

caseyann

Cavehill Red wrote: »

I'm just clarifying for you that only Irish and British citizens are permitted to vote in a Dail election.
Therefore, whoever you saw carried Irish or British citizenship. How do you know where they were born?

Ah i see sorry,i think i knew that for myself already though .I know that just happy to see them using it.
Because of their accents(they are pretty obvious) and because i know alot of them

Cavehill Red

caseyann wrote: »

Ah i see sorry,i think i knew that for myself already though .I know that just happy to see them using it.
Because of their accents(they are pretty obvious) and because i know alot of them

Given that mass immigration only really kicked off around 2001/2 and that it takes quite a few years to qualify for citizenship, this is the first election that naturalised immigrants would have had the chance to vote in any significant numbers.
I would expect a higher number again next time out. Migrants tend to be active voters in any country when they are able. It's one way to seek to assert some ownership of their new identity.