€20,000 treble. the return of the one bet challenge!

chompdown · 13-08-2014 2:13pm #1

Here we go again... I got a good run for my money last year with a couple of big return accumulators. Ings, Blackpool, Valencia etc...

I'm getting involved a bit earlier this season and already placed my bet this morning.

It's Stuart Beavon to be League 2 top scorer, Blackpool to get relegated from the championship and West Brom to be relegated from the prem. Full details and prices later, but it returns approx €20,000 for a €100 stake.

Wish me luck!

catallus · 13-08-2014 2:14pm

Good Luck!

famagusta · 13-08-2014 4:38pm

good luck again this year, blackpool should definitely go.

mailburner · 13-08-2014 7:42pm

best of luck chomp

will be following and hoping it happens

chompdown · 13-08-2014 11:44pm

Cheers lads.

Quick reasoning:

Beavon: Scored 21 goals for Wycombe in 2011/2012 when they were relegated from League One. Signed for Preston and struggled to score but still highly rated by their fans. He's now joined one of the best teams in League Two, and also is back living down South. 34.0 is good value!

West Brom: Out of the last 5 seasons the team that finished 17th the season before has gone down 4 times out of 5. The one exception was last year - Sunderland. 3.6 represents pretty decent value, although there should be a lot of clubs really struggling this season...

Blackpool: Like the other two selections, they were stand out best priced with Coral. I haven't been following them since last season when I had them to go down. They were miserably poor, so I've gone for them again. Odds 1.61.

Beavon @ 34.0
West Brom @ 3.6
Blackpool @ 1.61

Total odds: 197.0 (196/1)
Stake: £79.60 (approx €100)
Potential winnings: Approx €19,800.

Bring on the weekend!

chompdown · 17-08-2014 9:16pm

Average enough start. West Brom drew at home to Sunderland, which is a poor result, but they were apparently pretty good and probably deserved the win. Blackpool were beaten by Blackburn at home and are now second last.

Beavon didn't score, although Burton won 2-1, and he's now three goals off the pace. Interesting to see one of their other strikers taking and scoring a pen, so Beavon won't be on them at Burton I reckon...

Odds will probably be unchanged.

Games coming up on Tuesday which is always nice!

chompdown · 19-08-2014 12:52pm

Odds update...

Beavon @ 34.0 -> 34.0
West Brom @ 3.6 -> 3.75
Blackpool @ 1.61 -> 1.36

Total odds: 197.0 -> 173.4

Blackpool's odds tumbled despite only losing 2-1 at home to a decent Blackburn side. West Brom lengthened a little, mainly due to Pulius leaving as manager of Palace, and their odds for relegation shortening quite a bit.

No change for Beavon, but nice to see Billy Kee leave Burton and sign for Scunthorpe. He's the lad that scored two on Saturday, one a peno, so maybe Beavon will become the peno taker now. That would be a very nice bonus...

Games tonight for Blackpool and Burton!

racso1975 · 19-08-2014 10:47pm

Well he is off the mark and pool lost.......all good

chompdown · 20-08-2014 7:17am

Indeed! Beavon scored a lovely volley and Blackpool were beaten at home by newly promoted Brentford. That was a long trip north for Brentford too...

Bet looking pretty good so far. I just want to get a good run for my money this season...

chompdown · 20-08-2014 4:47pm

Beavon @ 34.0 -> 26.0
West Brom @ 3.6 -> 3.75
Blackpool @ 1.61 -> 1.33

Total odds: 197.0 -> 129.68

Pretty serious drop in the odds already!

chompdown · 25-08-2014 11:30am

No goals for Beavon this weekend, but he was apparently Burton's best player in a 1-1 draw. The current top scorer is a winger with 4 goals, but the other realistic challengers are all on 3 goals or less, so he's not too far behind yet..

Blackppol were beaten and were again very poor.

West Brom got a pretty good 0-0 draw away to Southampton and judging by their fans forum, they are pretty happy with how they have started. QPR, Burnley and Crystal Palace all rooted to the bottom on zero points, although they have all had a harder opening two games than WBA.

Here are the odds... Drifted a little because Beavon didn't score...

Beavon @ 34.0 -> 34.0
West Brom @ 3.6 -> 3.5
Blackpool @ 1.61 -> 1.25

Total odds: 197.0 -> 148.75

shamrock55 · 25-08-2014 11:34am

I cant see wb being relagated but what do i know, best of luck anyway chief;)

famagusta · 25-08-2014 12:45pm

palace will defo improve and so will qpr. hope so anyway.

i still think west brom are a good bet to be relegated. burnley will go so its probably two from palace, qpr, west brom and leicester.

i think palace will stay up, good luck anyway.

famagusta · 31-08-2014 10:19am

Good results for you yesterday chomp, west brom looked terrible. Burton are flying, pity beavon didnt score

chompdown · 31-08-2014 11:10am

Cheers Fama, yeah I was following your selections too and you had a great day, especially with Stoke winning!

As for my selections, Blackpool and West Brom were beaten, but only a booking and no goal for Beavon. It's starting to look like Rose (Bury) and Tubbs (Wimbledon) will be the main threats this year. They're both on four goals, three ahead of Beavon. Early days yet, and a 33/1 shot was never gonna shoot straight to the top of the charts...

I'm considering adding a €100 accummuator each month now, so I might be back with another during the week...

Beavon @ 34.0 -> 34.0
West Brom @ 3.6 -> 2.88
Blackpool @ 1.61 -> 1.22

Total odds: 197.0 -> 119.46

That's the shortest the odds have been so no complaints!

chompdown · 01-09-2014 3:57pm

Nice to see Beavon signing a permanent 3 year deal with Burton today, so no worries about him being recalled by Preston now.

Anyway, I plan to make one accumulator per month and here is September's:

A big dirty sevenfold....

Rotherham relegation from the Championship: 4.33
Peterborough League One winners: 9.0
Burton Albion League Two Promotion: 2.3
PSG to qualify from their Champions League group: 1.2
Besiktas to qualify from their Europa League group: 1.44
Sevilla to win their Europa League group: 1.66
Salzburg to win their Europa League group: 1.57

Odds: 403.65
Stake: £79 (€100)
Potential winnings: £31,888 (€40,365)

chompdown · 08-09-2014 4:04pm

Bet 1
Beavon @ 34.0 -> 41.0
West Brom @ 3.6 -> 2.88
Blackpool @ 1.61 -> 1.22

Total odds: 197.0 -> 144.06

Bet 2
Rotherham @ 4.33 -> 4.5
Peterborough @ 9.0 -> 7.5
Burton Albion @ 2.3 -> 2.25PSG @ 1.2 -> 1.2
Besiktas @ 1.44 -> 1.44
Sevilla @ 1.66 -> 1.66
Salzburg @ 1.57 -> 1.57
Odds: 403.65 -> 341.99

Good wins for Peterborough and Burton Albion this weekend get the Sept accy off to a good start. Beavon was again MOTM but got no goals. Tubbs got 2 and is five clear of Beavon now!

Rotherham drifted a little as Bet365 offer a standout price of 4.5 for them to go down after they signed Becchio and Clarke-Harris. I expect that price to be lower after next weekend, as they play a very good Bournemouth side away.

I'm really happy with the Sept selections!

chompdown · 20-09-2014 12:13pm

Just back from holidays so I can give a bit of an update. Not great results since my last post to be honest...

Beavon is letting me down big time in Bet 1, and Bet 2 has been a mixed bag so far. Hopes for today: Beavon hat-trick!

Bet 1
Beavon @ 34.0 -> 51.0
West Brom @ 3.6 -> 2.38
Blackpool @ 1.61 -> 1.20

Total odds: 197.0 -> 145.66

Bet 2
Rotherham @ 4.33 -> 4.33
Peterborough @ 9.0 -> 10.0
Burton Albion @ 2.3 -> 1.91
PSG @ 1.2 -> 1.17
Besiktas @ 1.44 -> 1.57
Sevilla @ 1.66 -> 1.44
Salzburg @ 1.57 -> 1.85

Odds: 403.65 -> 404.70

chompdown · 22-09-2014 10:46pm

Another less than inspiring weekend for the selections, some good, some bad but mainly negative. Despite being Burton's best player, Stuart Beavon has only scored one league goal so far this season, and the top two are on 8 and 7, so I think it's effectively a loser already, which is disappointing.

Also disappointing was Peterborough's defeat away to Yeovil. Thankfully Bristol City failed to win, but they are already 6 points clear. Early days, but as Peterborough are a young side, I would not like to see them get stuck in a bad run.

To avoid clogging up the thread, I will not comment on Bet 1 again unless Beavon gets closer to the top...

Odds update:

Bet 2
Rotherham @ 4.33 -> 4.0
Peterborough @ 9.0 -> 13.0
Burton Albion @ 2.3 -> 2.1
PSG @ 1.2 -> 1.17
Besiktas @ 1.44 -> 1.57
Sevilla @ 1.66 -> 1.44
Salzburg @ 1.57 -> 1.85

Odds: 403.65 -> 534.37

chompdown · 28-09-2014 10:33pm

A nice weekend of results!

Rotherham were beaten and both Peterborough and Burton picked up 1-0 wins. Beavon scored a lovely volley for Burton. Here are the latest odds... A nice drop from around 500/1 to 307/1.

European football this midweek.

Bet 2
Rotherham @ 4.33 -> 3.0
Peterborough @ 9.0 -> 11.0
Burton Albion @ 2.3 -> 1.91
PSG @ 1.2 -> 1.17
Besiktas @ 1.44 -> 1.57
Sevilla @ 1.66 -> 1.44
Salzburg @ 1.57 -> 1.85

Odds: 403.65 -> 308.44

chompdown · 03-10-2014 6:47am

There were quite a lot of midweek games for me to keep an eye on. It started badly with a 2-0 win for Rotherham (their first one in 5), but Huddersfield and Birmingham also won so not too bad.

The Euro football worked out pretty well. A fantastic win for PSG against Barca pretty much confirms they will qualify. Salzburg came from a goal down to win 2-1, and both Sevilla and Besiktas scored late equalisers to get away draws.

The odds have definitely come down but I will update them after the weekend.

Tonight - Burton Albion at home to Cambridge!

chompdown · 08-10-2014 6:57pm

Ok, here we go with an update and news of my 3rd accumulator... It was a good couple of nights for the European stuff but Burton, Peterborough and Rotherham all had the wrong results for me. Drifted a little but still green!

First the odds for new one - it's a Champions League and Europa League Group Winners.

Torino @ 1.91
Dinamo Moscow @ 1.33
Sevilla @ 1.33
Dynamo Kyiv @ 1.22
Zenit to qualify @ 1.53
Dortmund @ 1.40
FC Porto @ 1.57

Total Odds: 13.86
Stake: €100 (£74)
Potential winnings: €1,386

Now, the latest odds for Bet 2

Rotherham @ 4.33 -> 3.75
Peterborough @ 9.0 -> 13.0
Burton Albion @ 2.3 -> 2.2
PSG @ 1.2 -> 1.07
Besiktas @ 1.44 -> 1.4
Sevilla @ 1.66 -> 1.36
Salzburg @ 1.57 -> 1.67

Odds: 403.65 -> 364.89

chompdown · 11-10-2014 8:40pm

Two nice away wins for Burton andd Peterborough today means a nice drop in the odds. It's just a shame that Bristol City got a last minute winner at home to Chesterfield... Here are the odds now. Back on the downward trend

Rotherham @ 4.33 -> 3.75
Peterborough @ 9.0 -> 10.0
Burton Albion @ 2.3 -> 1.91
PSG @ 1.2 -> 1.07
Besiktas @ 1.44 -> 1.4
Sevilla @ 1.66 -> 1.36
Salzburg @ 1.57 -> 1.67

Odds: 403.65 -> 243.69

chompdown · 18-10-2014 10:28am

Rotherham beat Leeds last night to go mid table so that's put a bit of a downer on this weekend's games.

Although not exactly a bet, I've punted some money on two high risk stocks this week.

I bought shares of Taipan Resources @25 cent and Oxus Gold @2.1p on Wednesday. Not a lot of money down, but both companies have huge potential.

Taipan Resources is a junior oil explorer with assets in Kenya, and drill their first of three wells at the end of this year.

Oxus are locked in arbitration with the Uzbekistan government over gold mines that were confiscated by them. The court's decision is due by year end and will see the share price go to zero or multiples of it's current price.

If my Europa League bet comes off in December, I will add more shares...

Speculate to accumulate and all that!

chompdown · 19-10-2014 8:35pm

Quick Sunday night update of the odds. Big week ahead for Bet 2 and 3.

Rotherham @ 4.33 -> 5.0
Peterborough @ 9.0 -> 9.0
Burton Albion @ 2.3 -> 2.5
PSG @ 1.2 -> 1.07
Besiktas @ 1.44 -> 1.4
Sevilla @ 1.66 -> 1.36
Salzburg @ 1.57 -> 1.67

Odds: 403.65 -> 382.75

Somehow still green, despite Rotherham and Burton Albion odds drifting alot.

chompdown · 24-10-2014 9:06am

A very busy weekend and midweek for the two bets. Anothr mixed bag, with the domestic stuff being poor but the euro stuff good.

I have spotted a cracking bet today, and I'll have to use up the November stake today. Will post more details later in case anyone else wants to get involved before the weekend games.

Anyway here are the latest odds.

Bet 3
Torino @ 1.91 -> 1.5
Dinamo Moscow @ 1.33 -> 1.1
Sevilla @ 1.33 -> 1.3
Dynamo Kyiv @ 1.22 -> 1.53
Zenit to qualify @ 1.53 -> 1.73
Dortmund @ 1.40 -> 1.3
FC Porto @ 1.57 -> 1.57

Total Odds: 13.86 -> 11.59
Potential winnings: €1,386

Bet 2
Rotherham @ 4.33 -> 5.0
Peterborough @ 9.0 -> 11.0
Burton Albion @ 2.3 -> 2.2
PSG @ 1.2 -> 1.02
Besiktas @ 1.44 -> 1.15
Sevilla @ 1.66 -> 1.3
Salzburg @ 1.57 -> 1.57

Odds: 403.65 -> 280.86
Potential winnings: €40,365

chompdown · 24-10-2014 1:52pm

OK, I know it's still October, but I had to put November's accy on today while the prices were available.

Here it is:

Liverpool to finish top 4 @2.0
Cardiff to finish top 6 @3.5
Danny Hylton to be L2 top scorer @26.0 :eek:

Total odds: 182.0
Stake: €120
Potential winnings: €21,840

Hylton currently level at the top with 8 league goals! Get involved!

chompdown · 27-10-2014 8:17pm

Back to the domestic stuff and another mixed bag, with Hylton going top by himself, but most of the other results were sh1te...

Bet 4
Liverpool to finish top 4 @ 2.0 -> 2.25
Cardiff to finish top 6 @ 3.5 -> 5.0
Danny Hylton to be L2 top scorer @ 26.0 -> 12.0

Total odds: 182.0 -> 135.0
Potential winnings: €21,840

Bet 2
Rotherham @ 4.33 -> 5.0
Peterborough @ 9.0 -> 13.0
Burton Albion @ 2.3 -> 2.5
PSG @ 1.2 -> 1.02
Besiktas @ 1.44 -> 1.15
Sevilla @ 1.66 -> 1.3
Salzburg @ 1.57 -> 1.57

Odds: 403.65 -> 389.04
Potential winnings: €40,365

chompdown · 03-11-2014 1:30pm

Another defeat for Peterborough against a team in the relegation zone - that's 5 from 5 I think, means they are miles behind Bristol City and I have given up on that bet. That means Bet 1 and 2 are losers and I'm down to the Europa League accy and the latest one from last week. So to keep the thread clean I will only comment on these from now on.

Well it was a pretty good weekend that started badly. Liverpool were beaten by Newcastle, but in the 3 o clock kick offs Danny Hylton scored again and missed a late peno. He's two clear of the chasing pack in League 2. Cardiff registered a 3-1 win against a rubbish Leeds side - that's three wins from four games for Russel Slade. It was also nice to see Utd lose to City to help the Liverpool selection.

I think Liverpool have badly missed Sturridge, and when he comes back from injury I expect Liverpool to push on into the top 4 positions. Cardiff have a very good squad, but the Championship looks extremely tight this year so it's very hard to know if they'll make top 6. This week there's Championship, Europa League and Champions League to keep us entertained... Here's the odds for the domestic treble:

Bet 4
Liverpool to finish top 4 @ 2.0 -> 3.25
Cardiff to finish top 6 @ 3.5 -> 3.75
Danny Hylton to be L2 top scorer @ 26.0 -> 7.0

Total odds: 182.0 -> 85.3
Potential winnings: €21,840

chompdown · 07-11-2014 9:35am

Good and bad results in the European games this week. 5 out of the 7 teams got positive results, but Zenit and Torino let me down by losing at home to Leverkusen and away to HJK respectively.

Luckily Benfica beat Monaco so both Zenit and Torino still have it in their own hands.

Bet 3
Torino @ 1.91 -> 2.1
Dinamo Moscow @ 1.33 -> 1.02
Sevilla @ 1.33 -> 1.13
Dynamo Kyiv @ 1.22 -> 1.2
Zenit to qualify @ 1.53 -> 3.0
Dortmund @ 1.40 -> 1.05
FC Porto @ 1.57 -> 1.36

Total Odds: 13.86 -> 12.44
Potential winnings: €1,386

So a slight drop in the odds...

chompdown · 10-11-2014 10:53am

A quiet weekend with the FA Cup 1st round being on, so just Championship and Premier League. Cardiff could only draw and Liverpool lost to Chelsea.

I'm looking at the "To Finish Top 4" odds here again. Liverpool are best priced 4.0 and Arsenal are best priced 1.5. I find that extremely ridiculous!

Liverpool have a nice run of fixtures now and I can see that 4.0 price being closer to evens by the time Christmas comes, especially with Sturridge coming back.

Anyway, here are the odds for that bet:

Bet 4
Liverpool to finish top 4 @ 2.0 -> 4.0
Cardiff to finish top 6 @ 3.5 -> 5.0
Danny Hylton to be L2 top scorer @ 26.0 -> 7.0

Total odds: 182.0 -> 140.0
Potential winnings: €21,840

chompdown · 25-11-2014 10:49pm

An important midweek for my European Accy. It has started will with Porto securing first place tonight. Here's how it stands...

Bet 3
Torino @ 1.91 -> 2.25
Dinamo Moscow @ 1.33 -> 1.03
Sevilla @ 1.33 -> 1.17
Dynamo Kyiv @ 1.22 -> 1.3
Zenit to qualify @ 1.53 -> 2.75
Dortmund @ 1.40 -> 1.05
FC Porto WIN

Total Odds: 13.86 -> 10.18
Potential winnings: €1,386

chompdown · 27-11-2014 3:22pm

After a great early win for Zenit, I was hoping to see Leverkusen beat Monaco as predicted, but it was not to be. Monaco got a total smash and grab win, meaning Zenit need to win in France to qualify. Far from impossible, but the alternative of needing a draw or a win would have been nicer.

Dortmund were beaten by Arsenal, but will only need a point at home to Anderlecht to make sure of top spot. Shouldn't be a problem!

Tonight the four Europa team selections play and the biggest game is Torino at home to Brugge which is as close to a must win for this bet as is possible...

chompdown · 30-11-2014 8:27pm

Well the European accy doesn't look like it will come in now after Torino failed to beat Brugge at home. Sevilla lost away to Feyenoord so the odds have drifted significantly. It just shows how hard it is to get a good run for your money. I've realised that my standard approach of one long shot with one or two other shorter odds selections is the best way to go rather than this 7 fold type approach. Trying to find one mispriced long shot is key to a good run with these accumulators.

Danny Hylton at Oxford was one example. That treble is still alive as he is current top scorer of League 2 and Liverpool and Cardiff both picked up 1-0 wins in the league.

I've already identified my December accy and will place the bet tomorrow!

chompdown · 01-12-2014 1:20pm

Here are the updated odds and my December selections:

November
Liverpool to finish top 4 @ 2.0 -> 5.0
Cardiff to finish top 6 @ 3.5 -> 3.5
Danny Hylton to be L2 top scorer @ 26.0 -> 10.0

Total odds: 182.0 -> 175.0
Potential winnings: €21,840

December
Everton to win the Europa League @ 17.0
Watford to finish in Championship top 6 @ 2.37
MK Dons to finish in League 1 top 6 @ 1.25
Luton to win League 2 @ 5.0

Total odds: 251.81
Stake: €104
Potential winnings: €26,188

chompdown · 15-12-2014 11:31am

It's time for an update of the odds but the journey towards odds of 1.0 isn't exactly going to plan. 2 accumulators are already confirmed losers. The latest two from my post above are still alive, but only just. Liverpool have been really poor, and Uts and Arsenal are picking up wins so it looks bleak for that bet.

The other one is a real long shot too, but it's the one I'm most confident in. Here are the odds anyway...

November
Liverpool to finish top 4 @ 2.0 -> 9.0
Cardiff to finish top 6 @ 3.5 -> 4.5
Danny Hylton to be L2 top scorer @ 26.0 -> 11.0

Total odds: 182.0 -> 445.5
Potential winnings: €21,840

December
Everton to win the Europa League @ 17.0
Watford to finish in Championship top 6 @ 2.0
MK Dons to finish in League 1 top 6 @ 1.20
Luton to win League 2 @ 6.0

Total odds: 251.81 -> 244.8
Potential winnings: €26,188

chompdown · 15-12-2014 6:40pm

Well, the Christmas bonus came in so I decided to have add another bet for December! There were quite a few nice selections available so I went for the following split:

Santa Bonus 1
Dundee Utd Scottish Premiership Without Celtic @ 3.25
Marc Richards - Top Goalscorer L2 @ 15.00
MK Dons - League One Winners @ 5.50

€100 @ 268.13 to win €26,813

and

Santa Bonus 2
Marc Richards - Top Goalscorer L2 @ 15.00
PSV - Europa League Winners @ 51.00

€35 @ 765.0 to win €26,775

Lombardo86 · 17-12-2014 9:48am

chompdown wrote: »

Well, the Christmas bonus came in so I decided to have add another bet for December! There were quite a few nice selections available so I went for the following split:

Santa Bonus 1
Dundee Utd Scottish Premiership Without Celtic @ 3.25
Marc Richards - Top Goalscorer L2 @ 15.00
MK Dons - League One Winners @ 5.50

€100 @ 268.13 to win €26,813

and

Santa Bonus 2
Marc Richards - Top Goalscorer L2 @ 15.00
PSV - Europa League Winners @ 51.00

€35 @ 765.0 to win €26,775

Am a bit surprised you would go for Richards for top scorer, i know he is scoring now - but is he likely to be the one at the top of the pile for a team that are currently 16th in the table? Usually top scorer would come from the promotion/playoff teams.

Don't claim to know it all - just seemed like a strange pick

chompdown · 17-12-2014 8:26pm

Hi Lombardo, I also don't claim to know it all, quite the opposite actually... I'll give you a little background info....

I used to be a very successful at this betting game, so much so that I would get my stakes limited at bookies because I was winning nearly all my bets. So my idea was to look through oddschecker to find selections that were similarly priced to Betfair, back them with the bookie and lay them on Betfair, so that I would get more losing bets on my bookie account.

What actually happened was quite strange! The selections that were better priced with the bookies than on Betfair comfortably came out net winners, which made my problem worse

But then I had the idea to pursue this strategy...

So to cut a long story short, I don't tend to pick my selections based on what I actually think will happen, I just try to find these kinds of selections where there is good value - i.e. one bookie has Richards at a much higher price than the others. I am effectively betting on them being wrong, and the others right. That's why I often get a good run for my money (although not so much this season!).

I lost discipline big time, and I was awful at chasing losses, so these kinds of bets keep me away from the long days of chasing losses, and that is the main purpose of them. When they lose, they lose slowly, not like a 2 minute horse race, where the loss is very fresh in your mind, and you want to win back your stake straight away to mask the fact you have just lost.

So, to cut a long story even shorter, I haven't picked Richards because I think he will be top scorer, I have picked him because all the other bookies think he has a better chance of being top scorer compared to my bookie!

Lombardo86 · 18-12-2014 9:29am

chompdown wrote: »

Hi Lombardo, I also don't claim to know it all, quite the opposite actually... I'll give you a little background info....

I used to be a very successful at this betting game, so much so that I would get my stakes limited at bookies because I was winning nearly all my bets. So my idea was to look through oddschecker to find selections that were similarly priced to Betfair, back them with the bookie and lay them on Betfair, so that I would get more losing bets on my bookie account.

What actually happened was quite strange! The selections that were better priced with the bookies than on Betfair comfortably came out net winners, which made my problem worse But then I had the idea to pursue this strategy...

So to cut a long story short, I don't tend to pick my selections based on what I actually think will happen, I just try to find these kinds of selections where there is good value - i.e. one bookie has Richards at a much higher price than the others. I am effectively betting on them being wrong, and the others right. That's why I often get a good run for my money (although not so much this season!).

I lost discipline big time, and I was awful at chasing losses, so these kinds of bets keep me away from the long days of chasing losses, and that is the main purpose of them. When they lose, they lose slowly, not like a 2 minute horse race, where the loss is very fresh in your mind, and you want to win back your stake straight away to mask the fact you have just lost.

So, to cut a long story even shorter, I haven't picked Richards because I think he will be top scorer, I have picked him because all the other bookies think he has a better chance of being top scorer compared to my bookie!

Cheers for the insight - I check regularly to see how you're going. Best of luck

chompdown · 21-12-2014 10:42pm

Well that was the best weekend for any of my accumulators all season. Some really good results for the December bets.

Watford went down to 10 men and still managed to take the lead and win away to Reading. That's three wins on the trot since I backed them.

MK Dons won 7-0 against a pretty decent Oldham side. Swindon and Bristol City both lost! MK Dons will go top if they win their game in hand.

Luton won 3-0 and are two points off top. Their home record is outstanding.

Dundee Utd beat Celtic this morning 2-1 and go second in the league, ahead of Aberdeen on goal difference.

Marc Richards scored a pen for Northampton, although Danny Hylton and Reuben Reid (2) both scored.

Delighted with the results and looking forward to checking the odds tomorrow!

chompdown · 22-12-2014 11:04am

Ok, so not all bookies have updated their odds but here's the situation now anyway...

edit: all prices updated now.

December
Everton to win the Europa League @ 17.0
Watford to finish in Championship top 6 @ 2.37 -> 1.73
MK Dons to finish in League 1 top 6 @ 1.25 -> 1.07
Luton to win League 2 @ 5.0 -> 4.5

Total odds: 251.81 -> 141.61

Santa Bonus 1
Dundee Utd Scottish Premiership Without Celtic @ 3.25 -> 2.75
Marc Richards - Top Goalscorer L2 @ 15.00 -> 11.0
MK Dons - League One Winners @ 5.50 -> 4.0

Total odds: 268.13 -> 121.0

There's a lot of green there... It's looking like it will be an interesting Christmas for these bets. Also, I forgot to mention that Everton got a really nice draw in the Europa League against Young Boys Bern, and there are a couple of ties where the "big guns" will play each other. Quite happy!

chompdown · 30-12-2014 10:05am

A mixed bag over Christmas but delighted that Marc Richards got 2 in 2 as it's getting quite competitive at the top. Would be delighted to see Matt Tubbs join a League 1 side in the transfer window as he is only on loan at Wimbledon.

Watford are looking good for a top six finish over Cardiff. They were beaten earlier by Wolves who looked very good.

MK Dons were hammered at home by Walsall 3-0 but I would be quite confident that was a one-off and they'll be back in business next week.

Luton also failed to win at home on Sunday but Shrewsbury and Wycombe drew with each other so Luton are still in the mix.

I was really disappointed to see Dundee Utd lose away to St Johnstone, after going 1-0 up, following their big win against Celtic. Now they are three points off second. Here are the odds!

December
Everton to win the Europa League @ 17.0
Watford to finish in Championship top 6 @ 2.37 -> 1.73
MK Dons to finish in League 1 top 6 @ 1.25 -> 1.07
Luton to win League 2 @ 5.0 -> 5.5

Total odds: 251.81 -> 173.08

Santa Bonus 1
Dundee Utd Scottish Premiership Without Celtic @ 3.25 -> 3.6
Marc Richards - Top Goalscorer L2 @ 15.00 -> 8.0
MK Dons - League One Winners @ 5.50 -> 4.33

Total odds: 268.13 -> 124.7

chompdown · 02-01-2015 8:15pm

It's time for the January accumulator. Not going to go into much detail about it cos it could already be a loser tonight. I just hope I don't chase if it is a loser... Anyway, here it is:

Dunfermline Scottish League 1 winners @ 2.62

Ghana African Cup of Nations Winners @ 10.00

NAS Predators Central Division winners @ 5.00 (ice hockey)

MK Dons v Chesterfield @ 1.80 (FA Cup Round 2)

Stake: £75 (approx €100)
Odds: 235.8

chompdown · 03-01-2015 12:21pm

Ok, that was a loser. Happy that I didn't chase the loss. Almost feels like a win!

ANXIOUS · 03-01-2015 12:28pm

How come you decided to put a match into this accum?

chompdown · 03-01-2015 4:24pm

I've been looking for value selections for the January accumulator for the last few days and was struggling to find any to be honest.

Maybe I was a bit too bored, impatient and keen to get the accumulator on so just added the MK Dons match to the bet. Bad decision, bad discipline, and totally against the idea of my strategy (long term slow losing bets, rather than quick ones). Didn't chase last night or today, so in the safe zone again

chompdown · 05-01-2015 10:08am

A quiet weekend because of the FA Cup but there were some games in L1, L2 and Scotland. Not all good news though! Nice to see Shrewsbury and Swindon both failing to win, but so did Dundee Utd, while Aberdeen won... again! :(Here are the odds:

December
Everton to win the Europa League @ 17.0
Watford to finish in Championship top 6 @ 2.37 -> 1.73
MK Dons to finish in League 1 top 6 @ 1.25 -> 1.06
Luton to win League 2 @ 5.0 -> 6.0

Total odds: 251.81 -> 187.05

Santa Bonus 1
Dundee Utd Scottish Premiership Without Celtic @ 3.25 -> 4.33
Marc Richards - Top Goalscorer L2 @ 15.00 -> 8.0
MK Dons - League One Winners @ 5.50 -> 4.33

Total odds: 268.13 -> 150.0

chompdown · 12-01-2015 11:16pm

After a weekend packed full of league games, there was a nice mix of highs and lows. Lots of entertainment in the MK Dons match and also watched Dundee Utd win 3-2 tonight away to Hamilton.

Lovely seeing Marc Richards score again, but as we all know, every selection needs to win for these bets to come in!

I was actually doing some very quick calculations... Most of my bets are 250/1 or thereabouts. That obviously means one in every 250 will be a winner. Doing one per month means I'll have a winner on average every 20 years! Shows how tough a task it is to find a winner

With that said, here are the latest odds.

December
Everton to win the Europa League @ 17.0
Watford to finish in Championship top 6 @ 2.37 -> 1.91
MK Dons to finish in League 1 top 6 @ 1.25 -> 1.06
Luton to win League 2 @ 5.0 -> 7.0

Total odds: 251.81 -> 240.93

Santa Bonus 1
Dundee Utd Scottish Premiership Without Celtic @ 3.25 -> 4.5
Marc Richards - Top Goalscorer L2 @ 15.00 -> 5.0
MK Dons - League One Winners @ 5.50 -> 5.0

Total odds: 268.13 -> 112.5

chompdown · 19-01-2015 11:41am

Another pretty good weekend of games. It was important for Luton and MK Dons to win their matches and they both did 1-0. Dundee Utd were in danger of losing ground on Aberdeen, who had not conceded in their last 8 games, winning them all (I think). Gladly, they drew 3-3 and needed 2 late goals to get their point. Marc Richards had a lovely headed goal ruled out for offside, which was a shame. I'm actually quite confident he will be top scorer if he stays fit. Northampton have signed a couple of players and looking a lot better now.

Anyway, the odds dropping nicely, but still a long long way to go, maybe 20 years!

December
Everton to win the Europa League @ 17.0
Watford to finish in Championship top 6 @ 2.37 -> 1.85
MK Dons to finish in League 1 top 6 @ 1.25 -> 1.03
Luton to win League 2 @ 5.0 -> 5.5

Total odds: 251.81 -> 178.16

Santa Bonus 1
Dundee Utd Scottish Premiership Without Celtic @ 3.25 -> 4.5
Marc Richards - Top Goalscorer L2 @ 15.00 -> 5.0
MK Dons - League One Winners @ 5.50 -> 5.0

Total odds: 268.13 -> 112.5

Santa Bonus 2
PSV - Europa League Winners @ 51.0
Marc Richards - Top Goalscorer L2 @ 15.00 -> 5.0

Total odds: 765.0 -> 255.0

chompdown · 26-01-2015 11:10pm

As I calculate the odds after this weekends games I don't know whether they have shorterened or not. A very mixed bad of results, which seems to be the theme at this stage of the season.

This will probably be my last update for about 3 weeks as I go away on holidays for a nice break :)Hopefully I will come back to short odds!

December
Everton to win the Europa League @ 17.0
Watford to finish in Championship top 6 @ 2.37 -> 1.67
MK Dons to finish in League 1 top 6 @ 1.25 -> 1.02
Luton to win League 2 @ 5.0 -> 6.0

Total odds: 251.81 -> 173.8

Santa Bonus 1
Dundee Utd Scottish Premiership Without Celtic @ 3.25 -> 4.33
Marc Richards - Top Goalscorer L2 @ 15.00 -> 6.0
MK Dons - League One Winners @ 5.50 -> 5.0

Total odds: 268.13 -> 129.9

€20,000 treble. the return of the one bet challenge!

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