€20,000 treble. the return of the one bet challenge!

NaiveMelodies · 01-02-2015 11:13pm

chompdown wrote: »

As I calculate the odds after this weekends games I don't know whether they have shorterened or not. A very mixed bad of results, which seems to be the theme at this stage of the season.

Santa Bonus 1
Dundee Utd Scottish Premiership Without Celtic @ 3.25 -> 4.33
Marc Richards - Top Goalscorer L2 @ 15.00 -> 6.0
MK Dons - League One Winners @ 5.50 -> 5.0

Total odds: 268.13 -> 129.9

This santa bonus could be a runner!! Good weekend I see.

chompdown · 13-02-2015 8:58pm

Indeed it was looking good the weekend after I left with Richards getting two, MK Dons winning comfortably, and Dundee Utd beating Aberdeen in the League Cup semi. However, things haven't worked out so well after that. Two of Dundee Ud's best players have left, Aberdeen have gone further ahead, the MK Dons lost to Bradford and Bristol City look to be cruising to the title. Anyway, things change fast in this game, so still hope left.

I split my Feb accummulators into two trebles at £50 each. I wanted to include Coral's best priced top bowler (Mitchell Johnson) and top batsman (David Warner).

Selections are:
Feb 1
Warner top batsman @ 11.0
Nashville Western Coference Winner @ 8.0 (Ice hockey)
Morton Scottish League 1 winners @ 3.6

Feb 2
Johnson top bowler @ 11.0
Liverpool win Europa League @ 15.0
Daryl Murphy Championship top scorer @ 2.5

Will post more detailed update early next week after a bonanza of sport this weekend!

chompdown · 16-02-2015 3:35pm

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

This santa bonus could be a runner!! Good weekend I see.

It shows how quickly things can change... It was indeed a runner two weeks ago, but now it's a total longshot! I will not even include it on the updates anymore after some terrible results for the MK Dons and Dundee Utd. Richards, the long shot of the accumulator is doing fine though!

Anyway, after putting that into the losers section, it's time to look forward to the others still in with a change. Half decent start with one of my new Cricket related bets, and the Europa League starts again this week which should be nice and exciting!

I now have 4 accumulators in play, with one less than a 100/1 shot -> the PSV, Marc Richards double. I will certainly be shouting for PSV against Zenit on Thursday. I cannot understand how PSV are 50/1 to win the Europa League.

Here are the odds...

December
Everton to win the Europa League @ 17.0
Watford to finish in Championship top 6 @ 2.37 -> 1.4
MK Dons to finish in League 1 top 6 @ 1.25 -> 1.03
Luton to win League 2 @ 5.0 -> 6.5

Total odds: 251.81 -> 159.34

Santa Bonus 2
PSV - Europa League Winners @ 51.0
Marc Richards - Top Goalscorer L2 @ 15.00 -> 1.73

Total odds: 765.0 -> 88.23 :eek:

Feb 1
Warner top batsman @ 11.0 -> 17.0
Nashville Western Coference Winner @ 8.0 -> 8.0
Morton Scottish League 1 winners @ 3.6 -> 3.75

Total odds: 316.8 -> 510

Feb 2
Johnson top bowler @ 11.0 -> 10.0
Liverpool win Europa League @ 15.0
Daryl Murphy Championship top scorer @ 2.5 -> 1.67

Total odds: 412.5 -> 275.55

chompdown · 21-02-2015 11:19am

Terrible bad luck today with the Australia v Bangladesh game being called off and no chance to play it another day. That effectively ends the chances of my Feb accummulators coming off. Pissed off now, and will update the odds after this weekend's games...

chompdown · 24-02-2015 8:39pm

Pretty miserable outlook for all the bets right now. I'm surprised the Australian selections for the cricket did not drift further after that match was abandoned...

It was also crazy seeing both of March Richards' closest rivals bag hatricks, although it's not looking like it will effect things.

Added to that, one of the companies I took a punt on drilled for oil, and found nothing, so it was an all round ba week! Thankfully no chasing or panic betting, which makes me happy.

Anyway I'll do a quick update of the odds, and add in my March accummulator. If things don't drastically improve, I may not be back again until April...

Santa Bonus 1
Dundee Utd Scottish Premiership Without Celtic @ 3.25 -> 13.0
Marc Richards - Top Goalscorer L2 @ 15.00 -> 3.0
MK Dons - League One Winners @ 5.50 -> 4.5

Total odds: 268.13 -> 175.5

Santa Bonus 2
PSV - Europa League Winners @ 51.0 -> 100.0
Marc Richards - Top Goalscorer L2 @ 15.00 -> 3.0

Total odds: 765.0 -> 300.0

Feb 1
Warner top batsman @ 11.0 -> 21.0
Nashville Western Coference Winner @ 8.0 -> 6.5
Morton Scottish League 1 winners @ 3.6 -> 3.25

Total odds: 316.8 -> 443.63

Feb 2
Johnson top bowler @ 11.0 -> 17.0
Liverpool win Europa League @ 15.0 -> 12.0
Daryl Murphy Championship top scorer @ 2.5 -> 1.57

Total odds: 412.5 -> 320.28

March
Kohli Top Batsman @ 8.5
Swansea Top 10 @ 1.57
Ipswich Top 6 @ 1.44
Carlisle relegation @ 7.0

Total Odds: 134.5
Stake: €135

chompdown · 28-02-2015 12:22pm

Quick little update to keep a record of which accumulators are actually still open. A good few have died a death already!

In order of best chances first, the outlook is pretty miserable!

March
Kohli Top Batsman @ 8.5 -> 10.0
Swansea Top 10 @ 1.57 -> 1.57
Ipswich Top 6 @ 1.44 -> 1.44
Carlisle relegation @ 7.0 -> 7.0

Total Odds: 134.5 -> 158.2

December
Everton to win the Europa League @ 17.0 -> 13.0
Watford to finish in Championship top 6 @ 2.37 -> 1.4
MK Dons to finish in League 1 top 6 @ 1.25 -> 1.01
Luton to win League 2 @ 5.0 -> 15.0

Total odds: 251.81 -> 275.7

Santa Bonus 1
Dundee Utd Scottish Premiership Without Celtic @ 3.25 -> 17.0
Marc Richards - Top Goalscorer L2 @ 15.00 -> 3.0
MK Dons - League One Winners @ 5.50 -> 5.0

Total odds: 268.13 -> 280.5

Feb 1
Warner top batsman @ 11.0 -> 21.0
Nashville Western Coference Winner @ 8.0 -> 6.5
Morton Scottish League 1 winners @ 3.6 -> 3.0

Total odds: 316.8 -> 409.5

chompdown · 02-03-2015 2:51pm

... and then there were three. Lots of losing bets this year, but plenty to be happy about as my discipline has been very good, and there's still three accumulators in with (decent, slim & remote) chance. Great seeing Luton win, and all of the three teams ahead of them failing to win. They are 6 points off top with a game in hand. The other risky element of that accy is Everton to win the Europa League. They got Dynamo Kiev in the last 16, which is a very winnable tie for a team who expects to lift the cup.

The more realistic chance is for the March accumulator. I was very disappointed to see India lost the toss against the UAE, who decided to bat first. It meant my man Kohli scored 35 not out. The positive is that Dhawan was out early, but Kohli is now third favourite @ 9/1

The other selections are doing fine, with Ipswich still top 6, Carlsisle now in the bottom two and Swansea winning away to Burnley and shortening quite a lot.

The rank outsider accy from Feb is not worth a mention unless Warner (20/1) can smash at least a century in his next game.

March
Kohli Top Batsman @ 8.5 -> 10.0
Swansea Top 10 @ 1.57 -> 1.29
Ipswich Top 6 @ 1.44 -> 1.5
Carlisle relegation @ 7.0 -> 5.0

Total Odds: 134.5 -> 96.75

December
Everton to win the Europa League @ 17.0 -> 13.0
Watford to finish in Championship top 6 @ 2.37 -> 1.25
MK Dons to finish in League 1 top 6 @ 1.25 -> 1.01
Luton to win League 2 @ 5.0 -> 12.0

Total odds: 251.81 -> 197.0

Feb 1
Warner top batsman @ 11.0 -> 21.0
Nashville Western Coference Winner @ 8.0 -> 6.5
Morton Scottish League 1 winners @ 3.6 -> 2.75

Total odds: 316.8 -> 375.4

chompdown · 04-03-2015 1:02pm

A big win 1-0 for Carlisle in the relegation 6 pointer against Cheltenham means that they drift back out to 7.0

Luton lost 1-0, while Shrewsbury won 2-1 with a late goal. Luton's away form is rubbish and despite my optism in the last post, it looks unlikely that they can challenge for the league. I'll stop tracking this accumulator now as and concentrate on the other two that are in with a chance.

So that brings me to the Feb accy. I couldn't believe Afghanistan won the toss this morning and decided to put Australia in to bat. End result; my selection Warner gets 178 runs and sky rockets up the table. He is now @6.5 at the top of a competitive field.

Morton also went top of the Scottish League 1 with a win last night!

Here are the latest odds:

March
Kohli Top Batsman @ 8.5 -> 11.0
Swansea Top 10 @ 1.57 -> 1.25
Ipswich Top 6 @ 1.44 -> 1.73
Carlisle relegation @ 7.0 -> 7.0

Total Odds: 134.5 -> 166.5

Feb 1
Warner top batsman @ 11.0 -> 6.5
Nashville Western Coference Winner @ 8.0 -> 6.5
Morton Scottish League 1 winners @ 3.6 -> 2.62

Total odds: 316.8 -> 110.7

A win tonight for Ipswich away to Leeds would be nice.

chompdown · 09-03-2015 5:15pm

Time for a reply after a less than special weekend. Warner was out for 9 against Sri Lanka, and the new favourite for top batsman, Sangakkara managed a century to go clear at the top. Kohli plays early tomorrow against Ireland.

The football results were pretty mixed, bordering on poor, and the updated odds will probably reflect that, and here they are:

March
Kohli Top Batsman @ 8.5 -> 15.0
Swansea Top 10 @ 1.57 -> 1.25
Ipswich Top 6 @ 1.44 -> 2.1
Carlisle relegation @ 7.0 -> 6.5

Total Odds: 134.5 -> 255.9

Feb
Warner top batsman @ 11.0 -> 9.0
Nashville Western Conference Winner @ 8.0 -> 6.5
Morton Scottish League 1 winners @ 3.6 -> 2.5

Total odds: 316.8 -> 146.2

chompdown · 12-03-2015 10:43pm

Getting ready for a big weekend, with India playing Zimbabwe and Australia up against Scotland. I badly need at least one them to win the toss and bat first.

Sri Lanka and South Africa both won the toss in the last two games and that led to Sangakkara and Du Plessis racking up big runs and going clear at the top. At this point I feel Warner is the best hope as he could get 200 against Scotland if they bat first!

Seems pointless to add the updated odds (because they have drifted!) and the next games are so crucial...

My last accummulator of the season was placed today. Already, many of the antepost bets are very short odds, so hard to find value, but I think I've found a decent fourfold. Here it is:

QPR finish bottom of Prem: @4.0
Burton to win League Two: @2.75
Morton to win Scottish L1: @2.5
Nashville West conf winners: @6.5

Accumulated odds: 178.75
Stake: £95
Potential winnings: €24k

QPR are third last, Burton are top, Morton are top and Nashville are top!

chompdown · 15-03-2015 10:23pm

Well the cricket was a major anti climax. Both India and Australia won the toss, but both decided to bowl first. Shame Sri Lanka and South Africa didn't have the same approach.

Anyway, Aus changed their batting order for the game so Warner is a major long shot now.... Kholi picked up about 30 runs so is still hanging in there.

Like most of my other bets this season, the new accumulator got off to a good start.

QPR are now favourites for bottom place after a miserable defeat to Palace while Burnley and Leicester both picked up points.

Burton stretched their lead at the top, but both Morton and Nashville drifted a bit over the weekend.

Here are the updated odds:

April
QPR finish bottom of Prem: @ 4.0 -> 2.5
Burton to win League Two: @ 2.75 -> 2.2
Morton to win Scottish L1: @ 2.5 -> 2.62
Nashville West conf winners: @ 6.5 -> 7.0

Accumalated odds: 178.75 -> 100.87

March
Kohli Top Batsman @ 8.5 -> 26.0
Swansea Top 10 @ 1.57 -> 1.25
Ipswich Top 6 @ 1.44 -> 2.2
Carlisle relegation @ 7.0 -> 7.0

Total Odds: 134.5 -> 500.0 ! (Clutching at straws!)

chompdown · 19-03-2015 3:30pm

Well... The straws I was clutching on to have been dropped now that Kohli scored a miserable 3 runs early this morning. Awful!

So, barring a miracle from Warner, it leaves me with only one accumulator remaining - the April one (and it isn't even April yet!)

It's got off to a pretty good start although the Nashville Predators are in horrendous form. They need to improve before the playoffs start in April.Nice to see Burton Albion come from 1-0 and a man down to win 2-1 last night.

Here are the latest odds for this last chance saloon. Wish me luck!

April
QPR finish bottom of Prem: @ 4.0 -> 2.5
Burton to win League Two: @ 2.75 -> 1.91
Morton to win Scottish L1: @ 2.5 -> 2.88
Nashville West conf winners: @ 6.5 -> 7.5

Total odds: 178.75 -> 103.14

chompdown · 22-03-2015 10:34pm

This April accumulator is starting to look interesting!

Burton won easily against Tranmere to stay 5 points clear with 8 games to go.

Morton came from 1-0 down to win 2-1 with goals in the 90th and 92nd minutes! That could be a big moment for them, although they were home to the team sitting 2nd bottom.

While Leicester and Burnley both lost, QPR failed to capitalise and lost at home to Everton today too. They are still three points clear of Leicester who have a game in hand, but are favourites to finish bottom.

Nashville picked up their first home win in six with a 3-0 win, and have hopefully ended their bad spell.

Here are the odds

April
QPR finish bottom of Prem: @ 4.0 -> 2.25
Burton to win League Two: @ 2.75 -> 1.73
Morton to win Scottish L1: @ 2.5 -> 2.75
Nashville West conf winners: @ 6.5 -> 7.5

Total odds: 178.75 -> 80.28

That means the odds have more than halved already. This is more like it!

chompdown · 28-03-2015 11:34pm

Pretty good day again!

Nashville are in flying form - they've won 4 in a row with the last three away to top sides.

Morton won 4-0 away although their two main rivals also won. I reckon the league will go down to the last day.

The only blot was Shrewsbury and Wycombe both winning to close the gap on Burton who play on Monday.

April
QPR finish bottom of Prem: @ 4.0 -> 2.25
Burton to win League Two: @ 2.75 -> 1.73
Morton to win Scottish L1: @ 2.5 -> 2.38
Nashville West conf winners: @ 6.5 -> 7.5

Total odds: 178.75 -> 69.48

Getting shorter every week!

chompdown · 06-04-2015 10:21am

Not a great weekend for results. QPR picked up a great win away to WBA, but thankfully Leicester (win) and Burnley (draw) also picked up points.

Burton's lead has gone from 5 points to 1 point and Shrewsbury are in fine form, with probably the easier run in of the two.

Morton lost at home to Brchin and are now 4 points behind the eaders with 4 games to go. This is not good!

Not confident with this bet now at all... Anyway, here are the updated odds.

April
QPR finish bottom of Prem: @ 4.0 -> 2.75
Burton to win League Two: @ 2.75 -> 2.15
Morton to win Scottish L1: @ 2.5 -> 5.5
Nashville West conf winners: @ 6.5 -> 7.5

Total odds: 178.75 -> 243.89

chompdown · 11-04-2015 5:21pm

Interesting day for the bet today. Leicester were 1-0 and 2-1 down away to WBA but scored an injury time winner to win 3-2.

Burton scored with 10 mins to go away to Luton to win 1-0 and stay top by 1 point.

Morton were 2-0 down with 15 mins to go but won 3-2! They are still third but it is tight at the top!

Nashville lost their last 5 games are in horrible form going into the playoffs, but crucially they secured home advantage...

Looking forward to the odds update on Monday even if this is still a big massive longshot!

chompdown · 13-04-2015 8:58am

Another late goal to round off the weekend to an all round positive. Chelsea scoring in the 88th minute against QPR...

Very surprised to see Morton's odds still out at 5.5 despite their win, and the loss for Stranraer.

Nashville lost for the 6th game in a row and are in horrible form going into the playoffs. Still, I may as well follow this bet as it's the last of the season.

April
QPR finish bottom of Prem: @ 4.0 -> 2.1
Burton to win League Two: @ 2.75 -> 1.8
Morton to win Scottish L1: @ 2.5 -> 5.5
Nashville West conf winners: @ 6.5 -> 8.0

Total odds: 178.75 -> 166.32

Lombardo86 · 14-04-2015 8:54am

chompdown wrote: »

Another late goal to round off the weekend to an all round positive. Chelsea scoring in the 88th minute against QPR...

Very surprised to see Morton's odds still out at 5.5 despite their win, and the loss for Stranraer.

Nashville lost for the 6th game in a row and are in horrible form going into the playoffs. Still, I may as well follow this bet as it's the last of the season.

April
QPR finish bottom of Prem: @ 4.0 -> 2.1
Burton to win League Two: @ 2.75 -> 1.8
Morton to win Scottish L1: @ 2.5 -> 5.5
Nashville West conf winners: @ 6.5 -> 8.0

Total odds: 178.75 -> 166.32

Enjoyed following your progress this season - pity they haven't seemed to work out. Am thinking ill set aside some cash to do a couple of these longer term bets next year.

Where do you recommend starting?

chompdown · 14-04-2015 9:42pm

Lombardo86 wrote: »

Enjoyed following your progress this season - pity they haven't seemed to work out. Am thinking ill set aside some cash to do a couple of these longer term bets next year.

Where do you recommend starting?

All I do is check through oddscheker.com for markets I have a fleeting interest in, and pick out selections that are standout price with my bookie Coral, who anyway tend to pretty generous with some selections on some of their long term markets.

I just follow the value prices and nothing else like my own opinion comes into it...

Its great to keep you interested without having to put a bet on every week (or every day as it used to be the case for me).

I think I will do the same next year but perhaps lower the potential winnings. &€20 is a bit ambitious!

chompdown · 15-04-2015 8:17am

Ok, time for a quick update to reflect Shrewsbury and Wycombe both dropping points last night. Burton play Carlisle tonight. Nashville also get their playoffs underway today...

April
QPR finish bottom of Prem: @ 4.0 -> 2.1
Burton to win League Two: @ 2.75 -> 1.4
Morton to win Scottish L1: @ 2.5 -> 5.5
Nashville West conf winners: @ 6.5 -> 8.0

Total odds: 178.75 -> 129.36

Morton are in third, 3 points off the top with three games to play. They are still to play second place away, which is obviously a must win. The team in top has two of their last three games away.

chompdown · 16-04-2015 5:40pm

A truly miserable night for Nashville as they blew a 3-0 lead at home to lose 4-3 in the second period of overtime. That is a truly horrible way to lose, and it will be hard for them to come back from that mentally. They are now 1-0 down. It's best of 7.

Burton needed a 99th minute goal to draw at home to Carlisle. They are now two points clear of Shrewsbury.

Outlook: bleak.

chompdown · 18-04-2015 6:41pm

The highs and lows of this betting game continue... Nashville beat Chicago 6-2 to tie the QF of the Playoffs at 1-1. The next two games will be in Chicago. Great for them to come back and win like that after the miserable 4-3 loss in game 1.

Burton and Shrewsbury both won, so Burton remain 2 points clear with two games to go, but have a poorer goal difference, so two wins will probably be required.

Another team who now have it back in their hands is Morton. After it looking very bad for them a couple of weeks ago, they now know that if they win their last two games they will almost certainly be league winners. The away game to Stranraer is next week and that's massive.

Finally, QPR didn't play today, but Leicester and Burnley did. Leicester won for the third time in a row, while Burnley were beaten away to Everton.

The outlook is defo better after todays games! Will be a very interesting odds update on Sunday evening / Monday morning

chompdown · 15-06-2015 10:07am

Just wanted to give a final update on this thread. This final bet was the closest to coming off. Actually, it was very close

April
QPR finish bottom of Prem: @ 4.0 -> WIN
Burton to win League Two: @ 2.75 -> WIN
Morton to win Scottish L1: @ 2.5 -> WIN
Nashville West conf winners: @ 6.5 -> LOSE

Total odds: 178.75 -> LOSE

Nashvillew ere beaten in the quarter final of the playoffs by Chicago, who went on to win the western conference. They are about to win the Stanley Cup now.The games v Nashville were very close, wth acouple being won in overtime. I reckon, had Nashville beaten Chocago, this bet would have been a winner

Reminder:
Accumulated odds: 178.75
Stake: £95
Potential winnings: €24k

Lombardo86 · 27-07-2015 2:40pm

Will you be having a go this year?

I think you've spurred me to get involved with this type of longer term bet rather than just playing with fire (instant accumulators).

Will start looking at a few samples the weekend.

chompdown · 30-07-2015 9:48pm

Hey Lombardo, yeah I think I will be getting involved again this season.

I've actually just started scanning oddschecker for a few options.

I love the top goalscorer market, especially the lower leagues, but it's hard to know what to go for until the squads are close to being finalised. There are always some strange loan moves.

Im still proud of my Danny Ings bet when he was an unknown in the Championsjip

Will post my bests here, or on a new thread for sure!

Would be good to have some company this year

€20,000 treble. the return of the one bet challenge!

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