Galway West General Election

steelcityblues · 06-02-2011 7:29pm

R28 wrote: »

I doubt it. Firstly the number of votes he has so far (60) out of all the votes isn't enough to generalize to the constituency as a whole and secondly, the O'Cuiv vote in Connamara is severely under represented. The type of people likely to be registered boards.ie users (young, urban based, probably slightly more left leaning) are more likely to be Labour voters then the actual voting population of Galway West, which is quite a conservative area (always returning at least 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 PD/ex-PD and 1 Labour). That's 4 out of 5 seats being right/center right. I don't expect that much of a swing to the left happening.

Even Michael D never topped the poll IIRC, and he was a lot more popular/known then Nolan.

Fair enough - still it is one of the most impressive scores on the site (along with Shane Ross), that it makes me think he won't have much of a struggle to get elected.

R28 · 06-02-2011 7:49pm

steelcityblues wrote: »

Fair enough - still it is one of the most impressive scores on the site (along with Shane Ross), that it makes me think he won't have much of a struggle to get elected.

Well I certainly wish the poll results so far reflected the actual vote (although I'd like to see Eamonn Walsh in there as well) but I doubt it. I'm relatively certain Nolan will get a seat, but he's unlikely to top the poll.

Like I said,Galway West is quite the conservative constituency. People have this image of Galway being a hippy dippy liberal utopia, but that's not reflected in the election results.

johngalway · 06-02-2011 8:20pm

R28 wrote: »

People have this image of Galway being a hippy dippy liberal utopia, but that's not reflected in the election results.

Because most of the hippies are from outta town and go home for the weekend/Summer

Lockstep · 06-02-2011 8:41pm

R28 wrote: »

I would love if I could be more confident of the poll's generalisability. Registered users of boards.ie probably aren't a good random sample of the electorate as a whole. It is a great site though. Was showing it to my parents the other night, and it was the first time they were able to see all of the candidates who were running.

Yeah I completely agree. Most boards users would tend to be youngish, tech savvy and from the ABC1 category, so the poll utterly under-represents the results that the likes of Ó Cuív will get.

I still find it a very interesting tool though.

Lockstep · 06-02-2011 8:48pm

R28 wrote: »

I doubt it. Firstly the number of votes he has so far (60) out of all the votes isn't enough to generalize to the constituency as a whole and secondly, the O'Cuiv vote in Connamara is severely under represented. The type of people likely to be registered boards.ie users (young, urban based, probably slightly more left leaning) are more likely to be Labour voters then the actual voting population of Galway West, which is quite a conservative area (always returning at least 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 PD/ex-PD and 1 Labour). That's 4 out of 5 seats being right/center right. I don't expect that much of a swing to the left happening.

Even Michael D never topped the poll IIRC, and he was a lot more popular/known then Nolan.

Disagree with the idea that Boards users are left-leaning, Boards seems centre/centre right liberals from my experience on it, especially in the Politics forum.

However, strongly disagree with the claim that Galway is a conservative area; in the 2009 elections, Galway West electoral areas elected in 5 Labour Councillors, one Republican Sinn Féin councillor, two left wing independants (Connoly and Ó Cuáig) as well as around 2400 first preferences for Sinn Féin (between Conamara, Oranmore and the City)

Other than that, broadly agree with you.

steelcityblues wrote: »

Could Nolan be a possible poll topper given this poll ?

There must be a fair number of online votes there that come from people who are not his canvassers.

No, the chances of that happening are very, very slim. Nolan is still fairly new to politics and he'll have Connolly and Ó Clochartaigh to siphon votes off further.
He's in with a good chance but I doubt he'll top the poll. Will probably take the 3rd or 4th seat if he gets in.
It's almost impossible to call this election, especially as the PDs are no more, and Higgins/McCormack aren't running so it'll all come down to transfers.

Sponge Bob · 07-02-2011 4:05am

Lockstep wrote: »

It's almost impossible to call this election, especially as the PDs are no more, and Higgins/McCormack aren't running so it'll all come down to transfers.

It is impossible. I'll have a crack

1. O Cuiv Tops Poll, does not have quota , however elected first after a few Connemara eliminations.
2. Nolan Second.
3 Walsh (

Third
4. Grealish Fourth....and while elected possibly on the same count as Grealish will have fewer votes.
5. So Naughton Fifth.

Possible reversal of 3 and 5 !

Eamonn Walsh to cause consternation with very good result ( but not one that gets him elected) and thereby suppresses the Grealish and Healy Eames and Fahey totals over much of the count and Walsh will possibly even be eliminated after Fahey and Crowe so expect lots of screaming and dirt from FFers east of the Corrib and directed particularly at Eamonn Walsh for the next few weeks.

Lockstep · 07-02-2011 3:53pm

Ó Cuív will probably top the poll, although he'll need eliminations to get a quota.

After that, I have no idea.
Nolan, Walsh, Naughton, FHE, Connolly and Grealish are all in line for the 4 seats. Could go any which way.

Sponge Bob · 07-02-2011 4:11pm

Nolan just made the BBBBIIIIIIIIIiiiiiiiGGGGGG mistake of mailshotting the whole constituency including the entire Gaeltacht but ONLY in English. There is but one line in Irish.

He has basically firmed up Catherine Connollys vote by 500-1000 with that classic piece of arrogant and blinkered direct marketing stupidity.

Problem Nolan has is he can't even go on RnaG to apologise cravenly where his direct competitors will get a free rein because they can.

Lockstep · 07-02-2011 4:22pm

It's doubtful many in the Gael Thact will vote for him anyway though. His vote there probably won't change much, if at all. Rural Ireland, especially Galway west isn't known for its support for Labour.
I live there myself and it's Ó Cuív territory, with Connoly getting some support (especially from her endless appearances on RnaG and Ó Cuáig's endorsment of her) and Ó Clochartaigh being there to take the left vote.

Even if Nolan wrote a special policy document as Gaeilge, he'd be unlikely to see much support from the area.

A mistake; probably but I'd see little change from it.

Sponge Bob · 07-02-2011 4:30pm

Lockstep wrote: »

A mistake; probably but I'd see little change from it.

Problem is that there will be a wall of death around 4000 votes in the middle of the count, if you aren't in that bulge you are dead. Pissing off a load of Gaeltacht people with O Clochartaigh likely to be eliminated around that time is the very height of stupidity.

But that is what happens when you let direct marketing people in Dublin 'devise' a 'communications strategy' for you. The Gilmore Gael...what what

bobbytables · 07-02-2011 4:46pm

Never in all my voting years have I felt so determined to conduct my own research in advance of voting.

As a matter of interest to this thread, this was brought to my attention recently, which I found very interesting indeed...
http://www.headfordonline.com/2009/03/330/

I remember hearing a few people talk about about that "development" and that it wasn't what it seemed. Again you have to carry out your own research but "when there's smoke...". I've had enough of questionable dealings associated with people in power in this country.

Can anyone tell me any more about any of the candidates?

Lockstep · 07-02-2011 4:46pm

Conamara folk are very unlikey to be giving transfers to Labour though. Much more likely to be going to FG, FF or Independants.

I see what you're saying but it's far from a catastrophe. I really doubt it will lose him votes or transfers to the extent that it will affect him much.

c_man · 07-02-2011 5:30pm

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Nolan just made the BBBBIIIIIIIIIiiiiiiiGGGGGG mistake of mailshotting the whole constituency including the entire Gaeltacht but ONLY in English. There is but one line in Irish.

Ha! I got a text about this earlier from a Gaeltacht bound Lab. supporter. The boards.ie filter would have a job with it...

I really am looking forward to the results in GW, it will be quite interesting. Whilst a great tool, and excellently designed, I doubt the boards.ie/vote results in GW will reflect reality in any way.

snubbleste · 07-02-2011 6:54pm

I'm going to try and predict the result:

1. Connolly C
2. Walsh B
3. Cuív Ó E
4. Nolan D
5. Healy-Eames F

No one will reach the quota on first count. There's a number of left vote candidates pushing Connolly's transfers up. Grealish seems to be more FF than the FFers themselves. FG running four candiates means they will get two seats.

johngalway · 07-02-2011 6:56pm

Lockstep wrote: »

Conamara folk are very unlikey to be giving transfers to Labour though. Much more likely to be going to FG, FF or Independants.

I see what you're saying but it's far from a catastrophe. I really doubt it will lose him votes or transfers to the extent that it will affect him much.

I'd say that's true enough, also living in Connemara. I remember a bemused Michael D. on TV once wondering why he had so few votes coming out of Connemara.

I'm considering giving Nolan a preference, rather see him in than Connolly, but I'm no fan of a few Labour policies, tough one!

Lockstep · 07-02-2011 7:42pm

johngalway wrote: »

I'd say that's true enough, also living in Connemara. I remember a bemused Michael D. on TV once wondering why he had so few votes coming out of Connemara.

I'm considering giving Nolan a preference, rather see him in than Connolly, but I'm no fan of a few Labour policies, tough one!

Really? Welby was remarking that he hoped to tap into the 1000 votes or so that Michael D got out there. Always assumed this was a Michael D personal vote and not anything to do with Labour.

Know a few people: who are giving Nolan a high preference with the hope of keeping Connolly out.

johngalway · 07-02-2011 7:46pm

The Michael D. thing was a fair while back now in fairness, 90's some time.

Dan_Solo · 07-02-2011 10:14pm

johngalway wrote: »

The Michael D. thing was a fair while back now in fairness, 90's some time.

I'd never vote for that slimebag since the days of the FF/Lab government when he voted out the student dole... while he was a university lecturer. I hope he gets hammered in the Presidential too.
Showing my age there, and how long I bear a grudge!

PomBear · 08-02-2011 2:50am

O'Brolchain just jumped up about 30 votes in the poll there, he'll be lucky to get 30 votes in the actually vote, foulplay methinks

08-02-2011 1:15pm

reposting from the errors thread:

Deleted User wrote: »

In Galway west Éamon Ó Cuiv will show up on the ballot paper as Cuiv, Éamon Ó

I will try to get a photo of some FF election material that shows this.

Does anyone have any flyers to back this up or am I wrong?

Sponge Bob · 08-02-2011 1:53pm

That is correct, The O seems to be part of his forename. Mind you how This lad turned O into Ac always astounded me but it was accepted on the ballot paper

gimmebroadband · 08-02-2011 2:05pm

While walking down the street one day a Politician is tragically hit by a truck and dies. His soul arrives in heaven and is met by St. Peter at the entrance.

"Welcome to heaven," says St. Peter. "Before you settle in, it seems there is a problem. We seldom see a high official around these parts, you see, so we're not sure what to do with you."

"No problem, just let me in," says the man.

"Well, I'd like to but I have orders from higher up. What we'll do is have you spend one day in hell and one in heaven. Then you can choose where to spend eternity."

"Really, I've made up my mind. I want to be in heaven," says the senator.

"I'm sorry but we have our rules." And with that, St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down, down to hell.

The doors open and he finds himself in the middle of a green golf course. In the distance is a club and standing in front of it are all his friends and other politicians who had worked with him. Everyone is very happy and in evening dress.

They run to greet him, shake his hand, and reminisce about the good times they had while getting rich at expense of the people. They play a friendly game of golf and then dine on lobster, caviar and champagne.

Also present is the devil, who really is a very friendly guy who has a good time dancing and telling jokes. They are having such a good time that, before he realizes it, it is time to go. Everyone gives him a hearty farewell and waves while the elevator rises.

The elevator goes up, up, up and the door reopens on heaven where St. Peter is waiting for him.

"Now it's time to visit heaven."

So, 24 hours pass with the head of state joining a group of contented souls moving from cloud to cloud, playing the harp and singing.

They have a good time and, before he realizes it, the 24 hours have gone by and St. Peter returns.

"Well then, you've spent a day in hell and another in heaven. Now choose your eternity."

The Politician reflects for a minute, then he answers: "Well, I would never have said it before, I mean heaven has been delightful, but I think I would be better off in hell."

So St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down, down to hell. Now the doors of the elevator open and he's in the middle of a barren land covered with waste and garbage.

He sees all his friends, dressed in rags, picking up the trash and putting it in black bags. The devil comes over to him and puts his arm around his shoulder.

"I don't understand," stammers the politician. "Yesterday I was here and there was a golf course and club, and we ate lobster and caviar, drank champagne, and danced and had a great time. Now all there is is a wasteland full of garbage and my friends look miserable. What happened?"

The devil looks at him, smiles and says, "Yesterday we were campaigning......Today you voted for us!"

Robbo · 08-02-2011 3:07pm

Deleted User wrote: »

reposting from the errors thread:

Does anyone have any flyers to back this up or am I wrong?

He changed his name a few elections ago for the purposes of appearing further up the ballot sheet. It's nice that he has such respect for the electorate that he thinks they fill out a form in the order it's handed to them. Displays an unwavering pride in his Irish name as well...

c_man · 08-02-2011 5:26pm

Is it too early to name Niall O'Brolchain as the winner in the Smallest Party Logo on Posters competition?

Don't worry, we remember which party that bankrupted the nation you belong to.

snubbleste · 08-02-2011 5:33pm

Anyone see the posters for Mr. Price
They are yellow with red writing, a few on the Newcastle link road.

I presume it is advertising? What's going on?

PomBear · 08-02-2011 9:44pm

snubbleste wrote: »

Anyone see the posters for Mr. Price
They are yellow with red writing, a few on the Newcastle link road.

I presume it is advertising? What's going on?

On the quinsentennial bridge too

08-02-2011 9:46pm

Mr Price is the name of the shop that went where N17 supermarket used to be.

Branddistributi · 08-02-2011 10:12pm

Whoever they are you have to admire them having the initiative to wait until the storm was over and everyone elses posters blown down before they launched their campaign. The competition was blown away before they even started. Mr Price is obviously capable of weathering all storms !!

CavanEcho · 08-02-2011 11:42pm

I just saw a few of these arounnd Cavan too. I heard that they are running candidates around the country and that they have their own party manifesto as well thats being launched this week. They look to be a breath of fresh air. Eamonn O' Cuiv wanted the leadership of FF TO re energise it and fell asleep at the manifesto launch. They bring back Willie O' Dea into communications and the BBC had to put up subtitles when he was interviewed outside court in London after Albert Reynolds court case. I'm looking forward to seeing what Mr Price has to offer.

PomBear · 08-02-2011 11:46pm

Tried check him out on FB as the signs said 'Find us on Facebook', couldn't find him anyways!

Galway West General Election

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