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Second Annual Winter Forecast Contest

2

Comments

  • #52
    MiNdGaM3
    Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    Wish I had the time to make a proper go at this forecast, but it will have to be pure guess work from me this year.

    1. 5.6 2.9 5.6

    2. 125% 81% 120%

    3. 16.1 -8.7

    4. 34

    5. 80


  • #53
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,585 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Under contest rules, entries are now subject to 5 point penalty per day ... "day" runs from 0300h to 0300h ... but entries are still welcome.

    Editing your existing entry after this time will also be subject to 5 point penalty per day.


  • #54
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    1:Dec- 4.5. Jan- -1.0 . Feb- 5.5
    2:110%, 40% , 140%
    3:15.4, -17.6
    4:51cm
    5:80 knts.
    Think its going to be a cold winter! I think these results should be somewhat accurate going by MT.Craniums winter forecast for a very cold january,avg december and mild february!


  • #55
    Danno
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    1. DEC 5.9c JAN 2.9c FEB 4.1c

    2. DEC 150% JAN 85% FEB 60%

    3. 17.3c Max; -9.6c Min

    4. 19cm

    5. 104kt


  • #56
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,585 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Okay, thanks for those, now we move into 10-pt penalty time, to 0300h Monday. As stipulated earlier, that's ten points, not ten per cent of your score.


  • #57
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,585 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Contest is now CLOSED to further entries as we have reached the deadline (and the penalty points would reduce your score to zero anyway, in most cases). We have 43 entries and of those, only two would suffer a 5-pt penalty. I had expected a trickle of later entries which was why there was a penalty concept, but I've decided that if one of the two late entries (Danno and bb1234567 if my memory is working) would win without the penalty, then I will double up the 20-euro prize offer and include that person along with whoever wins under the rules. If they win with the penalty then just the one prize. So it won't affect your chances of winning. No second prize as we are well short of 100 entries.

    In other news, thetonynator has offered to help out with his nifty self-ranking chart feature, something that will make scoring this (and reading my tables of entries) much, much easier. Thanks in advance, Tony.

    We'll have that posted in a few days so you can review the entries. Just a reminder, the seasonal minimum stands at -2.3 C so that's hopefully going to be beaten badly sooner or later, and we go to the bitter end (15 April) for that and snowfall at Casement. Everything else runs 1 Dec to 29 Feb including max wind gust. So we'll have provisional final scoring by early March and I'll then post some idea of how those could change before 15 April.

    Good luck to everyone, you have a 1 in 42 chance of winning since my score will not count. (you would still have a 1 in 42 chance, methinks)

    Anyone who missed this thread before today and now posts a forecast, please note, contest is closed and we won't review or comment on your forecast, but if you want to join in for fun, be my guest. But no hard feelings if you do better than the official entrants, rules were set out clearly enough.

    So, memo to the four winds: BRING IT ON !!!


  • #58
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,585 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Scoring methods can now be revealed since the number of entrants is set at 43. As mentioned earlier, all scoring this year will be by rank order, not absolute error. For any given category, 10 scoring levels will be assigned from max to min of 0.5 or multiple. The three lowest ranked forecasts in each category will get a zero score. From max down to min, groups of four will be placed in each category. Where there are ties, the scoring will be adjusted to reflect the tied scores. Penalties will be assessed at the end to the total scores (of two late entrants).

    Example concerning the ties. Say there are six contestants tied at level 1 (5.0) and three at the next interval then scores would run 5,5,5,5,5,5, 4.5,4.5,4.5 which would leave only three at 4.0 if those were not tied.

    Rank order will be determined by absolute error in all cases. The Met-IE monthly summary will be the source for all final data, statements of highest and lowest temperatures in the summary will take precedence over any conflicting daily reports (as per last year). This allows for quality control from appropriate sources that the contest organizers cannot apply. The same would apply to wind gusts. The Casement snowfalls will be totalled by consulting published daily summaries (thanks in advance to SC). The IMT values will match our monthly forecast contest end-of-month values and so will the monthly precip values.

    Note that seasonal temperature and precip forecasts are calculated by the scorers from your entries, and errors in this category are the errors in the seasonal averages, you could score a lot more than your individual months combined if your errors compensate. Usually you could expect to score high if your individual months score well.

    Persons caught dumping snow at Casement will be disqualified or encouraged .


  • #59
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Scoring methods can now be revealed since the number of entrants is set at 43. As mentioned earlier, all scoring this year will be by rank order, not absolute error. For any given category, 10 scoring levels will be assigned from max to min of 0.5 or multiple. The three lowest ranked forecasts in each category will get a zero score. From max down to min, groups of four will be placed in each category. Where there are ties, the scoring will be adjusted to reflect the tied scores. Penalties will be assessed at the end to the total scores (of two late entrants).

    Example concerning the ties. Say there are six contestants tied at level 1 (5.0) and three at the next interval then scores would run 5,5,5,5,5,5, 4.5,4.5,4.5 which would leave only three at 4.0 if those were not tied.

    Rank order will be determined by absolute error in all cases. The Met-IE monthly summary will be the source for all final data, statements of highest and lowest temperatures in the summary will take precedence over any conflicting daily reports (as per last year). This allows for quality control from appropriate sources that the contest organizers cannot apply. The same would apply to wind gusts. The Casement snowfalls will be totalled by consulting published daily summaries (thanks in advance to SC). The IMT values will match our monthly forecast contest end-of-month values and so will the monthly precip values.

    Note that seasonal temperature and precip forecasts are calculated by the scorers from your entries, and errors in this category are the errors in the seasonal averages, you could score a lot more than your individual months combined if your errors compensate. Usually you could expect to score high if your individual months score well.

    Persons caught dumping snow at Casement will be disqualified or encouraged .


    Having read this three times, I think I'll make the table, but you're free to do the scoring. Maybe in 3 months time I'll have gotten the hang of it!!!:pac:


  • #60
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,178 ✭✭✭pauldry


    what are ya on about the tonynator. what could be simpler?

    only joking my limited brain got sore reading MTs post so skipped on to yours :D


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  • #61
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    pauldry wrote: »
    what are ya on about the tonynator. what could be simpler?

    only joking my limited brain got sore reading MTs post so skipped on to yours :D

    My brain doesn't handle anything more than menial tasks . .:P

    I'm sure if i concentrated on it I'd manage! Anyway, MT has the table and is going to check it for mistakes, should be up this week sometime.


  • #62
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,585 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thanks to "thetonynator" we have this nifty table of entries. You can play around with it to get the forecasts in order, just click on the top of each column to get options. And please check your entries although I have already done so here at Global HQ ... the seasonal values are simply the averages of your three predictions, unweighted (in reality Feb being shorter, these would undergo a slight adjustment, but it's hardly worth the bother).

    Username|DEC IMT|JAN IMT|FEB IMT|SEASON IMT|DEC PRC|JAN PRC|FEB PRC|SEASON PRC|MAX|MIN|SNOW|WIND
    Strasser|5.9|4.5|6.1|5.5|110|91|115|105|17.2|-7.4|20|87
    Rebelbrowser|3.8|2.6|5.6|4.0|95|80|125|100|16.1|-11.6|29|79
    pauldry|6.6|3.7|6.9|5.7|135|99|101|112|17.5|-8.3|17|75
    Iancar29|6.0|4.0|5.0|5.0|90|120|85|98|17.5|-13.0|22|72
    dsmythy|5.3|4.8|5.6|5.2|111|71|137|106|15.4|-8.6|13|67
    nacho libre|5.1|3.9|6.1|5.0|85|125|105|105|15.8|-10.6|25|83
    Mmcd|3.3|1.9|5.4|3.5|85|75|120|93|14.2|-13.7|18|83
    scary|3.5|2.9|5.4|3.9|98|101|85|95|14.4|-11.6|18|79
    flying11|5.1|3.6|4.7|4.5|113|62|85|87|17.1|-9.4|31|76
    Joe Public|5.9|2.7|3.1|3.9|119|79|79|92|14.3|-11.9|22|81
    baraca|2.9|1.7|4.1|2.9|124|75|90|96|15.1|-14.4|51|83
    NIALL D|4.7|2.9|3.5|3.7|110|85|105|100|15.2|-12.7|33|79
    M.T. Cranium|5.2|1.5|6.3|4.3|110|80|70|87|16.0|-18.0|39.4|82
    Rougies|4.4|1.1|5.9|3.8|104|82|85|90|15.8|-16.2|41.8|69
    WolfeIRE|4.9|3.1|4.5|4.2|120|105|95|107|15.0|-17.6|23|79
    redsunset|3.0|0.5|4.9|2.8|80|90|110|93|17.0|-17.8|100|75
    200motels|5.7|4.7|6.3|5.6|146|139|133|139|16.4|-10.5|12|76
    BLIZZARD7|4.9|-0.5|2.4|2.3|98|150|85|111|14.5|-19.0|140|83
    Deep Easterly|4.9|5.3|2.1|4.1|180|240|30|150|15.8|-10.6|34|96
    Wild Bill|5.5|4.2|5.1|4.9|100|105|80|95|16.3|-6.8|8|123
    thetonynator|4.0|1.4|5.1|3.5|90|76|91|86|15.9|-7.2|24|77
    Harps|4.6|3.4|5.3|4.4|110|75|120|102|15.4|-8.5|17|80
    homolumo|5.0|1.7|6.0|4.2|110|85|77|91|15.5|-13.3|9.4|73
    okla|5.0|3.3|4.2|4.2|90|108|80|93|15.5|-10.0|28|75
    snowstreams|5.3|2.5|3.6|3.8|108|85|95|96|16.4|-10.4|33|72
    talkabout|5.9|3.5|3.6|4.3|95|105|104|101|15.4|-9.4|13|68
    jdee99|5.3|2.4|3.1|3.6|112|115|90|106|10.2|-15.6|16|68
    Elmer Blooker|7.2|6.2|5.8|6.4|80|150|120|117|15.8|-5.3|3|72
    oterra|7.5|6.6|6.0|6.7|75|110|120|102|13.7|-12.3|26|78
    Su Campu|5.3|4.9|5.5|5.2|100|95|115|103|13.1|-8.8|9|68
    Sponge Bob|5.5|5.3|5.4|5.4|100|100|100|100|14.7|-11.1|6|69
    karl tyrrell|-0.4|3.5|8.6|3.9|87|94|152|111|14.8|-32.0|74|82
    H2UMrsRobinson|8.1|1.4|4.2|4.6|89|99|109|99|15.6|-15.6|25|78
    cdev|4.1|0.4|4.3|2.9|90|106|115|104|15.5|-17.8|56|79
    kindredspirit|5.5|3.0|5.5|4.7|110|65|95|90|15.8|-7.0|25|75
    John mac|5.3|5.2|5.3|5.3|99|110|95|101|15.8|-9.1|5.3|78
    eskimocat|5.4|4.1|5.8|5.1|100|60|84|81|16.0|-8.0|22|99
    waterways|6.3|4.3|1.5|4.0|168|111|83|121|17.0|-17.0|34|74
    nilhg|5.8|6.1|5.7|5.9|101|115|120|112|15.5|-5.1|12|81
    traecy1|5.6|4.2|4.9|4.9|125|100|80|102|15.2|-6.5|7|80
    MiNdGaM3|5.6|2.9|5.6|4.7|125|81|120|109|16.1|-8.7|34|80
    bb1234567*|4.5|-1.0|5.5|3.0|110|40|140|97|15.4|-17.6|51|80
    Danno*|5.9|2.9|4.1|4.3|150|85|60|98|17.3|-9.6|19|104

    * late entries, 5 pt deduction to total score

    Please see previous posts from me to see some notes on scoring and prize award -- and "ladies and gentlemen, start your engines." (six hours to the start of the race)


  • #63
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    The seasonal values are simply the averages of your three predictions, unweighted (in reality Feb being shorter, these would undergo a slight adjustment, but it's hardly worth the bother).

    What MT means here, is that he would have done it properly, but because I figured out the averages it naturally wasn't done properly! Now M.T. on the other hand would have put it to about 18 decimal places . . .P


  • #64
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,585 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Not really, I would have done it the same way (did last year too). But the official seasonal values will adjust to length of month. It basically means that February counts a little less than the other two months and it might change some of the second decimal places. For an example in monthly temperatures, 4.67 might fall below 4.65 and round off one decimal lower, that sort of thing .... not significant enough for us to worry about it in this contest.

    I really appreciate having the tables so easy to manipulate for scoring, it saves me a lot of work. Now that I see how to format the tables, I may start using them in the monthly contest too. Not sure if that will be less or more work to set up but for scoring it should be a breeze. Tony, is there a function where you can add up the numbers in every part of a row? That would apply to the scoring function not to the entries.


  • #65
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Tony, is there a function where you can add up the numbers in every part of a row? That would apply to the scoring function not to the entries.

    There might be, but I'm no expert! I'll google vbulletin software and have a look.


  • #66
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Golly gosh! If I'd appreciated the knots issue I think I might have gone for a tad less than a max wind speed of 123! :rolleyes:

    123 x 1.87 = a lot of kph

    (work it out for me Sponge)


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  • #67
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Username|DEC IMT|JAN IMT|FEB IMT|SEASON IMT|DEC PRC|JAN PRC|FEB PRC|SEASON PRC|MAX|MIN|SNOW|WIND
    Strasser|5.9|4.5|6.1|5.5|110|91|115|105|17.2|-7.4|20|87
    Rebelbrowser|3.8|2.6|5.6|4.0|95|80|125|100|16.1|-11.6|29|79
    pauldry|6.6|3.7|6.9|5.7|135|99|101|112|17.5|-8.3|17|75
    Iancar29|6.0|4.0|5.0|5.0|90|120|85|98|17.5|-13.0|22|72
    dsmythy|5.3|4.8|5.6|5.2|111|71|137|106|15.4|-8.6|13|67
    nacho libre|5.1|3.9|6.1|5.0|85|125|105|105|15.8|-10.6|25|83
    Mmcd|3.3|1.9|5.4|3.5|85|75|120|93|14.2|-13.7|18|83
    scary|3.5|2.9|5.4|3.9|98|101|85|95|14.4|-11.6|18|79
    flying11|5.1|3.6|4.7|4.5|113|62|85|87|17.1|-9.4|31|76
    Joe Public|5.9|2.7|3.1|3.9|119|79|79|92|14.3|-11.9|22|81
    baraca|2.9|1.7|4.1|2.9|124|75|90|96|15.1|-14.4|51|83
    NIALL D|4.7|2.9|3.5|3.7|110|85|105|100|15.2|-12.7|33|79
    M.T. Cranium|5.2|1.5|6.3|4.3|110|80|70|87|16.0|-18.0|39.4|82
    Rougies|4.4|1.1|5.9|3.8|104|82|85|90|15.8|-16.2|41.8|69
    WolfeIRE|4.9|3.1|4.5|4.2|120|105|95|107|15.0|-17.6|23|79
    redsunset|3.0|0.5|4.9|2.8|80|90|110|93|17.0|-17.8|100|75
    200motels|5.7|4.7|6.3|5.6|146|139|133|139|16.4|-10.5|12|76
    BLIZZARD7|4.9|-0.5|2.4|2.3|98|150|85|111|14.5|-19.0|140|83
    Deep Easterly|4.9|5.3|2.1|4.1|180|240|30|150|15.8|-10.6|34|96
    Wild Bill|5.5|4.2|5.1|4.9|100|105|80|95|16.3|-6.8|8|123
    thetonynator|4.0|1.4|5.1|3.5|90|76|91|86|15.9|-7.2|24|77
    Harps|4.6|3.4|5.3|4.4|110|75|120|102|15.4|-8.5|17|80
    homolumo|5.0|1.7|6.0|4.2|110|85|77|91|15.5|-13.3|9.4|73
    okla|5.0|3.3|4.2|4.2|90|108|80|93|15.5|-10.0|28|75
    snowstreams|5.3|2.5|3.6|3.8|108|85|95|96|16.4|-10.4|33|72
    talkabout|5.9|3.5|3.6|4.3|95|105|104|101|15.4|-9.4|13|68
    jdee99|5.3|2.4|3.1|3.6|112|115|90|106|10.2|-15.6|16|68
    Elmer Blooker|7.2|6.2|5.8|6.4|80|150|120|117|15.8|-5.3|3|72
    oterra|7.5|6.6|6.0|6.7|75|110|120|102|13.7|-12.3|26|78
    Su Campu|5.3|4.9|5.5|5.2|100|95|115|103|13.1|-8.8|9|68
    Sponge Bob|5.5|5.3|5.4|5.4|100|100|100|100|14.7|-11.1|6|69
    karl tyrrell|-0.4|3.5|8.6|3.9|87|94|152|111|14.8|-32.0|74|82
    H2UMrsRobinson|8.1|1.4|4.2|4.6|89|99|109|99|15.6|-15.6|25|78
    cdev|4.1|0.4|4.3|2.9|90|106|115|104|15.5|-17.8|56|79
    kindredspirit|5.5|3.0|5.5|4.7|110|65|95|90|15.8|-7.0|25|75
    John mac|5.3|5.2|5.3|5.3|99|110|95|101|15.8|-9.1|5.3|78
    eskimocat|5.4|4.1|5.8|5.1|100|60|84|81|16.0|-8.0|22|99
    waterways|6.3|4.3|1.5|4.0|168|111|83|121|17.0|-17.0|34|74
    nilhg|5.8|6.1|5.7|5.9|101|115|120|112|15.5|-5.1|12|81
    traecy1|5.6|4.2|4.9|4.9|125|100|80|102|15.2|-6.5|7|80
    MiNdGaM3|5.6|2.9|5.6|4.7|125|81|120|109|16.1|-8.7|34|80
    bb1234567*|4.5|-1.0|5.5|3.0|110|40|140|97|15.4|-17.6|51|80
    Danno*|5.9|2.9|4.1|4.3|150|85|60|98|17.3|-9.6|19|104
    Con Sensus|5.1|3.3|5.0|4.5|105.5|98|97.5|100|15.2|-11.76|29.2|79

    Table with Con Sensus included.


  • #68
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Please let Wild Bill actually score in KT not in KPH because he freely admitted his abject ignorance and deserves a break! :)

    123 kph = 66.4146868 knots


  • #69
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Thanks Sponge.

    But I don't need any special pleading - everyone here knows I'm abjectly ignorant :)


  • #70
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,585 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I would be inclined to allow a change if you're just finding out now about knots and km/hr ... so if contestants agree, thank this post. If you disagree, send me a PM. Tony, hold off changing the number for a while. From what I can see, actual values in the range of 82-90 knots will actually leave you with the same score, so it may not matter if that's the case.

    The way these things normally work, changing down (from 123 to 66) will pretty much guarantee a phenomenal windstorm. :cool:


  • #71
    John mac
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,130 ✭✭✭John mac


    Snow reported in Knock and Belmullet
    FirstSnow2011-1.jpg


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  • #72
    Joe Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,783 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    It's only snow in Casement that counts.


  • #73
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Wild Bill wrote: »
    But I don't need any special pleading -
    You must either admit same to MT by PM like he said or else hope for an Oíche na Gaoithe Móire redux and of course an outright win. :D


  • #74
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Joe Public wrote: »
    It's only snow in Casement that counts.

    And only lying snow there too . . .


  • #75
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    You must either admit same to MT by PM like he said or else hope for an Oíche na Gaoithe Móire redux and of course an outright win. :D

    I voted for myself! Could lead to disqualification :eek:

    Anyways the temperatures are plummeting and Winter has finally arrived - can a hurricane be far behind?


  • #76
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Wild Bill wrote: »
    I voted for myself! Could lead to disqualification :eek:

    Anyways the temperatures are plummeting and Winter has finally arrived - can a hurricane be far behind?

    Given that the hurricane season has ended, and we never get actual hurricanes in Ireland, then yes, it could be a long long way behind!


  • #77
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    thetonynator wrote: »
    And only lying snow there too . . .

    No, it's snowfall that counts, i.e. the total accumulations of snow for each fall. Casement report it every hour in the 931** group of the 333 line of the synop. I'll keep an eye on these and keep a running total throughout the season.


  • #78
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Su Campu wrote: »
    No, it's snowfall that counts, i.e. the total accumulations of snow for each fall. Casement report it every hour in the 931** group of the 333 line of the synop. I'll keep an eye on these and keep a running total throughout the season.

    Sorry, I thought it was measured as snowfall lying at 9 UTC. Obviously got a bit mixed up!


  • #79
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    thetonynator wrote: »
    Sorry, I thought it was measured as snowfall lying at 9 UTC. Obviously got a bit mixed up!

    The term "snowfall" refers to the maximum depth of snow that accumulates in an episode (shower, per hour, etc.), i.e. the depth of newly-fallen fresh snow, excluding what was there already. It is reported in the 931** group of the 333 line of the synop.

    "Snow depth" refers to the total depth of snow (old and new) lying on the ground at a certain time every day, which is actually measured at 06Z in Ireland, but as often as hourly at Casement. It is reported in the 4**** group of the 333 line.


  • #80
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,585 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I received no objections and noted a reasonable number in agreement, so it would be alright to change Wild Bill's wind forecast.


  • #81
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Seeing as nobody changed it yet why don't ye wait till this day next week ....sure it will be a long winter. :D


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  • #82
    John mac
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,130 ✭✭✭John mac


    With the gust of 151MPH in Scotland Wild bill would have been too low!!!!

    151 mph = 131.215413 knots :D:D


  • #83
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    John mac wrote: »
    With the gust of 151MPH in Scotland Wild bill would have been too low!!!!
    Up to 165mph now, at the top of a 4000 foot mountain not in an IMT station.

    I'd say it hit 100KT on top of Errigal this morning too but that does not count. Unless Bill is camped up there with his anenometer that is. :D


  • #84
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    If it sticks on 78 gust for the winter I'll be happy enough. :D


  • #85
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Up to 165mph now, at the top of a 4000 foot mountain not in an IMT station.

    I'd say it hit 100KT on top of Errigal this morning too but that does not count. Unless Bill is camped up there with his anenometer that is. :D

    But even if I was Su Campu would be telling me I needed it 10m above the summit :(


  • #86
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    btw, this just might be an appropriate time and place to mention.......


    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=75794393 ;)


  • #87
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    I am, of course, talking about the Wild Bill Second Anemometer Fund :)


  • #88
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,585 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    You might need more than an anemometer at this rate ... by the way, for whatever reason, the met.ie daily summary gives only 68 knots as the maximum at Malin Head yesterday. Will of course check this if necessary with the monthly summary although the way Tuesday's looking, that should be pushed aside.

    Mildest so far that I've noticed is 12.5 C.


  • #89
    Joe Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,783 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    On the weather forecast last night Evelyn Cusack announced a high gust of 145Km/h at Malin Head for yesterday. That equates to 78.3 Knots or a large multiple of that for Wild Bill:)

    May have been just a typo on the "yesterday's weather" page - 68 instead of 78.


  • #90
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03980&ano=2011&mes=12&day=31&hora=24&min=0&ndays=31

    Still top gust even after this week. 144.1 kph is just under 78 Knots...or whatever Bill is having.


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  • #91
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,585 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The other day, top gusts were reduced again in the daily summary from hourly reports. Just a reminder to all contest participants, the verification of top gust speed will be based only on data shown in the "Monthly Summary" published shortly after each month ends by Met Eireann.

    At the moment the top gust figure in daily reports is 70 knots. But I can't confirm that until the month ends.


  • #92
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Big reduction, Malin scored over 70KT in the hourlys on a number of occasions on the 13th but these have not made it into the daily summeary on Met E but seemingly have on Ogimet. Maybe 70 is a placeholder value pending checks and calibrations.


  • #93
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »

    At the moment the top gust figure in daily reports is 70 knots. But I can't confirm that until the month ends.


    I think that puts me in pole position for windiness :)


  • #94
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    70KT puts ME in pole position Bill, I predicted 69 :D


  • #95
    Joe Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,783 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Joe Public wrote: »
    On the weather forecast last night Evelyn Cusack announced a high gust of 145Km/h at Malin Head for yesterday. ( 8/12/2011 ) That equates to 78.3 Knots or a large multiple of that for Wild Bill:)

    May have been just a typo on the "yesterday's weather" page - 68 instead of 78.


    See attachment:-

    gust-8-12-2011.JPG

    I've just listened to the weather clip from the 8th and she didn't actually say Malin Head but Donegal so maybe it doesn't count towards this contest.

    http://www.rte.ie/news/av/2011/1208/9news.html#


  • #96
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,585 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Yes, I saw the numbers on the hourly reports too, but I have to assume that changes made later are in the interests of quality control for reasons that go unannounced. They could just be clerical errors, but I am in no position to know this. So I decided after several of these episodes just to simplify things and go with whatever they say in the Monthly Summary. Same goes for temperatures at Phoenix Park or any other station, it only counts if the Monthly Summary gives it as an extreme.

    Hopefully there will be a windstorm later that maintains the hourly values in the daily report and solve the problem for us.

    By the way, if the 144h forecast chart had verified, we would now be talking about 90 knots or something. :pac:


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  • #97
    Joe Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,783 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    90 Knots posted by ME for max gust at Malin Head on 3rd Jan.

    Strasser is looking very good with max gust of 87 Knots and already got the Dec IMT 5.9 + precip 110%
    Just a coincidence he is at the top of the table:)


  • #98
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,585 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Here we go with a table of partial scores, with the 90-kt (what happened to that last knot?) gust used provisionally.

    Forecaster .. DEC IMT . DEC PRC . MAX WIND GUST . POINTS SO FAR
    ___________________________________________________________

    Strasser.......... 5.0 ..... 5.0 ..... 10 ............ 20.0
    M.T. Cranium ... 3.0 ..... 5.0 ...... 9 ............ 17.0
    Joe Public ....... 5.0 ..... 3.5 ...... 8 ............ 16.5
    nilhg .............. 4.5 ..... 3.5 ...... 8 ............ 16.0
    traecy1 .......... 4.5 ..... 2.5 ...... 8 ............ 15.0
    MiNdGaM3 ....... 4.5 ..... 2.5 ...... 8 ............ 15.0
    BLIZZARD7 ...... 2.0 ..... 3.0 ..... 10 ............ 15.0
    Harps ............. 1.5 ..... 5.0 ...... 8 ............ 14.5
    bb1234567*..... 1.0 ..... 5.0 ...... 8 ............ 14.0
    eskimocat ....... 3.5 ..... 3.5 ...... 7 ............ 14.0
    nacho libre ...... 2.5 ..... 1.0 ..... 10 ............ 13.5
    NIALL D .......... 1.5 ..... 5.0 ...... 7 ............ 13.5
    kindredspirit ..... 4.0 ..... 5.0 ...... 4 ............ 13.0

    Con Sensus .... 2.5 ..... 3.5 ...... 7 ............ 13.0

    WolfeIRE ........ 2.0 ..... 3.5 ...... 7 ............ 12.5
    baraca .......... 0.0 ..... 2.5 ..... 10 ............ 12.5
    Deep Easterly . 2.0 ..... 0.0 ..... 10 ............ 12.0
    John mac ....... 3.5 ..... 3.0 ...... 5 ............ 11.5
    Mmcd ............. 0.0 ..... 1.0 ..... 10 ........... 11.0
    scary ............. 0.5 ..... 3.0 ...... 7 ............ 10.5
    flying11 .......... 2.5 ..... 4.0 ...... 4 ............ 10.5
    Rebelbrowser ... 0.5 ..... 2.5 ...... 7 ............ 10.0
    karl tyrrell ....... 0.0 ..... 1.0 ...... 9 ............ 10.0
    snowstreams ... 3.5 ..... 4.0 ...... 2 .............. 9.5
    cdev ............. 0.5 ..... 2.0 ...... 7 .............. 9.5
    200motels ...... 4.5 ..... 0.5 ...... 4 .............. 9.0
    homolumo ...... 2.0 ..... 5.0 ...... 2 .............. 9.0
    Danno*.......... 5.0 ..... 0.0 ...... 4 .............. 9.0
    talkabout ....... 5.0 ..... 2.5 ...... 1 .............. 8.5
    jdee99 .......... 3.5 ..... 4.0 ...... 1 .............. 8.5
    Iancar29 ........ 4.5 ..... 2.0 ...... 2 .............. 8.5
    Sponge Bob .... 4.0 ..... 3.5 ...... 1 .............. 8.5
    Su Campu ...... 3.5 ..... 3.5 ...... 1 .............. 8.0
    dsmythy ........ 3.5 ..... 4.5 ...... 0 .............. 8.0
    pauldry .......... 3.0 ..... 1.0 ...... 4 .............. 8.0
    okla .............. 2.0 ..... 2.0 ...... 4 .............. 8.0
    Wild Bill ......... 4.0 ..... 3.5 ...... 0 .............. 7.5
    thetonynator... 0.5 ..... 2.0 ...... 5 .............. 7.5
    H2UMrsRobinson 0.5 .... 1.5 ...... 5 .............. 7.0
    waterways ..... 4.0 ..... 0.0 ...... 3 .............. 7.0
    oterra ........... 1.0 ..... 0.5 ...... 5 .............. 6.5
    Rougies ......... 1.0 ..... 4.0 ...... 1 .............. 6.0
    redsunset ...... 0.0 ..... 0.5 ...... 4 .............. 4.5
    Elmer Blooker .. 1.5 ..... 0.5 ...... 2 .............. 4.0

    Notes: Scoring rules were discussed earlier, basically it's by rank order and ties affect how many score. The wind gust max scores can only change slightly no matter how much higher than 90 kts we go, because there are only three contestants above 90, two of them could improve at the expense of two around 82 kts, everyone else is locked into their scores. Wild Bill was scored zero from his requested revision of 66 kts but at the moment would also score zero for 123 kts (karma). :)


  • #99
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Wild Bill was scored zero from his requested revision of 66 kts but at the moment would also score zero for 123 kts (karma). :)

    There are sooo many ways I can get it wrong! ;)


  • #100
    dsmythy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,520 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Only saw the mini update there. I'd be doing so much better if it wasn't for my gust fail :(


  • #101
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,178 ✭✭✭pauldry


    It makes depressing reading for me too I think ill have to buy scratch cards to get that 20euro


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