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GK selection
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“I played Thibaut for 90 minutes because he was injured and didn’t play last weekend. Petr played two matches in Turkey and the first half against Ferencvaros. Since he arrived Courtois has only played 45 minutes against Werder Bremen, he needs to play. The fact Courtois played 90 minutes wasn’t me saying he’s first choice for Monday, it’s because he didn’t play the last three matches. The players don’t know (who’s first choice). When will I tell them? On Sunday.”
You're some kid Jose, some kid!!
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Right. I had a thorough look at goalkeepers stats over the 11 GWs already played. Now that we’re heading towards the Christmas period it may be interesting to couple that with the fixtures list to try and help choosing the best suitable GK to your team. Mr. P. already posted food for thought on the GK/def selection for this period here so I guess this will complement it. My analysis was only focused on the GKs but I presume some of these data can be used for def.
Since it’ll be a pretty long post, I’m gonna split it in two.- In the first one I’ll have a look at the overall figures. So if you plan on having one good playing GK that’s the stats you want.
- In the second one, I’ll deal with the home/away figures. So if you plan on rotating 2 keepers, that’s the numbers to study
.
I've just made a few comments not to make this already long post a never-ending monster
. Feel free to add in your owns
Table 1: Overall Points & CS (only > 30 points & > or = 3 CS included)
Goalkeepers | played | Pts | | | Goalkeepers | played | CS
Forster | 11 | 51 | | | Forster | 11 | 7
Fabianski | 11 | 45 | | | Fabianski | 11 | 5
Lloris | 11 | 43 | | | Foster | 10 | 4
Heaton | 11 | 40 | | | Heaton | 11 | 4
De Gea | 11 | 40 | | | Guzan | 11 | 4
Hart | 10 | 39 | | | Krul | 11 | 4
Guzan | 11 | 38 | | | Hart | 10 | 3
Krul | 11 | 37 | | | Courtois | 10.3 | 3
Foster | 10 | 36 | | | Szczesny | 11 | 3
Speroni | 10.6 | 35 | | | De Gea | 11 | 3
Courtois | 10.3 | 33 | | | Howard | 11 | 3
Adrián | 11 | 33 | | | Lloris | 11 | 3
Mignolet | 11 | 33
Szczesny | 11 | 33
Green | 10 | 31
Apart from Forster incredible 7 CS out of 11 games, this table shows that the difference between a big club GK and a budget one is very small. Many £8.5m “small” team GK combo performed similar or better than biggies (e.g. Burnley’s Heaton/Gilks, AV’s Guzan/Given, Newcastle’s Krul/Elliot, WB’s Foster/Myhill (add Myhill 2 pts to Foster’s total here) and to a lesser extent QPR’s Green/McCarthy – only Leicester’s Schmeichel/Hamer despite Hamer’s 8 pts were not as prolific). In addition they most have decent fixtures during the Christmas period (just Burnley don’t have a nice run and WBA play 3 away games out of 4 though you’ll see in my next post that Foster’s been doing better away).
It’s also worth noting that some biggies did better overall than the general impression they gave (e.g. De Gea & Hart are only 1 CS away from Fabianski). City fixtures during the Christmas period are extremely favourable (3 home games out of 4 in 10 days, Hart could be a safe option then).
Table 2: Overall saves & pts gotten from saves (only > or = 3 included)
Goalkeepers | played | saves | pts from saves | | | Goalkeepers | played | saves | pts from saves
Green | 10 | 40 | 10 | | | Speroni | 10.6 | 29 | 6
Adrián | 11 | 38 | 9 | | | Krul | 11 | 24 | 5
Heaton | 11 | 33 | 8 | | | De Gea | 11 | 24 | 5
Mannone | 9 | 30 | 8 | | | Hart | 10 | 23 | 5
Fabianski | 11 | 31 | 7 | | | Szczesny | 11 | 26 | 5
Lloris | 11 | 31 | 7 | | | Foster | 10 | 26 | 4
Courtois | 10.3 | 26 | 7 | | | Howard | 11 | 20 | 3
Mignolet | 11 | 29 | 7 | | | Begovic | 11 | 15 | 3
Schmeichel | 10 | 35 | 7 | | | McGregor | 6 | 19 | 3
Guzan | 11 | 34 | 6 | | | Forster | 11 | 18 | 2top 10 ....................................................... 11 -> 20
In terms of saves, don’t count on Forster for that! It seems it’s double or quits with him. It’s either a CS or nothing.
Also we see the downfall of FPL defensive form of Stoke with Begovic bad rank (despite an impressive efficiency with only 6 “wasted” saves). Courtois is even more efficient with only 5 “wasted” saves.
Green impressive return is noteworthy: 1 pt/game from saves on average.
Table 3: Overall goals conceded & pts loss from them (ordered by ascending overall pts loss)
Goalkeepers | played | conceded | -1 | -2 | -3 | -4 | | | Goalkeepers | played | conceded | -1 | -2 | -3 | -4
Forster | 11 | 5 | 1 | | | | | | Foster | 10 | 13 | 6 | | |
Courtois | 10.3 | 11 | 2 | | | | | | Krul | 11 | 15 | 4 | 1 | |
Hart | 10 | 10 | 3 | | | | | | Lloris | 11 | 16 | 4 | 1 | |
Begovic | 11 | 13 | 3 | | | | | | Guzan | 11 | 16 | 6 | | |
Fabiansky | 11 | 11 | 2 | 1 | | | | | Mannone | 9 | 17 | 3 | | | 1
De Gea | 11 | 14 | 2 | 1 | | | | | Howard | 11 | 18 | 4 | | 1 |
Adrián | 11 | 14 | 4 | | | | | | Schmeichel | 10 | 18 | 7 | |
Mignolet | 11 | 15 | 4 | | | | | | Heaton | 11 | 19 | 5 | 1 | |
McGregor | 6 | 11 | 3 | 1 | | | | | Speroni | 10.6 | 19 | 8 | | |
Szczesny | 11 | 13 | 5 | | | | | | Green | 10 | 19 | 5 | 2 | | top 10 ....................................................... 11 -> 20
Here, we see again the impressive form of Southampton’s Forster. Only 1 pt deducted from goals conceded out of 11 games. That could well be a premiere couldn’t it?
As expected big teams keepers are among the top ones (Courtois, Hart, De Gea…). In the end, the fact that they do concede little may turn out to be very profitable FF-wise if they up their form and/or when they’ll face a favourable run of fixtures.
It’s also interesting to see how deceptive the actual pitch result can sometimes be for translating into FF points. e.g. Begovic and Mignolet are among the best defences of the league, but table 1 shows how badly ranked they are overall. The old saying “it’s better to lose once 5-0 than 5 times 1-0“ is particularly true FF-wise
. 0 - In the first one I’ll have a look at the overall figures. So if you plan on having one good playing GK that’s the stats you want.
-
Table 4: Total Points - home/away (top 10 ; top 20 ; and beyond)
Goalkeepers | played | home points | | Goalkeepers | played | away points ||| Goalkeepers | played | home points | | Goalkeepers | played | away points
Forster | 6 | 33 | | Foster | 5 | 25 ||| Mignolet | 6 | 20 | | Courtois | 6 | 16
De Gea | 6 | 27 | | Guzan | 6 | 25 ||| Krul | 5 | 19 | | Heaton | 5 | 15
Fabianski | 6 | 26 | | Lloris | 5 | 21 ||| Courtois | 4.3 | 17 | | Begovic| 6 | 15
Speroni | 5 | 26 | | Fabianski | 5 | 19 ||| Mannone | 5 | 15 | | Howard | 6 | 15
Heaton | 6 | 25 | | Forster | 5 | 18 ||| Szczesny | 5 | 15 | | Mannone | 4 | 14
Adrián | 6 | 24 | | Krul | 6 | 18 ||| Begovic | 5 | 15 | | De Gea | 5 | 13
Green | 5 | 23 | | Szczesny | 6 | 18 ||| Guzan | 5 | 13 | | Mignolet | 5 | 13
Lloris | 6 | 22 | | Hart | 5 | 17 ||| Howard | 5 | 13 | | Schmeichel | 5 | 11
Hart | 5 | 22 | | McGregor | 3 | 17 ||| Foster | 5 | 11 | | Speroni | 5.6 | 9
| | | | | | ||| | | | | | |
| | | | | | ||| Schmeichel | 5 | 9 | | Adrián | 5 | 9
| | | | | | ||| Harper | 1 | 6 | | Jakupovic | 1.5 | 9
| | | | | | ||| Cech | 0.7 | 6 | | Hamer | 1 | 8
| | | | | | ||| McGregor | 3 | 4 | | Green | 5 | 8
| | | | | | ||| Pantilimon | 1 | 4 | | Harper | 1.5 | 4
| | | | | | ||| Jakupovic | 1 | 2 | | Caballero | 1 | 2
| | | | | | ||| Myhill | 1 | 2 | | Pantilimon | 1 | 1
| | | | | | ||| McCarthy | 1 | 2 | | Hennessey | 0.4 | 1
What strikes me at first glance is Green good home form and Foster and Guzan great away form.
For people interested in home/away rotations, this table brings interesting food for thought (e.g. forget about WBA & AV since they’ll get you away big pts while probably on your bench). On the other hand, QPR’s Green, WH’s Adrián and CP’s Speroni are the ones to play at home and to bench away! Interestingly CP/WH rotate perfectly though it’s an expensive enough combo (£10.0m).
Lloris, Krul, Courtois, Szczesny seem to score consistently home and away. The latter is even perfectly bang on 3 pts/game.
Table 5: Clean Sheets - home/away (only > or = 2 included)
Goalkeepers | played | home CS | | Goalkeepers | played | away CS
Forster | 6 | 5 | | Foster | 5 | 3
Courtois | 4.3 | 3 | | Guzan | 6 | 3
Fabianski | 6 | 3 | | Forster | 5 | 2
Heaton | 6 | 3 | | Fabianski | 5 | 2
Speroni | 5 | 2 | | Hart | 5 | 2
Krul | 5 | 2 | | Krul | 6 | 2
Howard | 5 | 2 | | Szczesny | 6 | 2
Green | 5 | 2
De Gea | 6 | 2 |
Lloris | 6 | 2
Adrián | 6 | 2
The home/away CS figures show the same trends than the previous table. e.g. Foster and Guzan scoring much more away than home.
It’s also worth noting that Courtois overall pts are affected by the game he had to pull out from (Cech got the CS pts that day). Overall his home form is better than suggested by Table 4.
Table 6: Saves & pts gotten from saves - home/away (only > or = 3 included)
Goalkeepers | played | home saves | home pts from saves | | Goalkeepers | played | away saves | away pts from saves
Adrián | 6 | 24 | 6 | | Courtois | 6 | 20 | 6
Green | 5 | 19 | 5 | | Schmeichel | 5 | 22 | 5
Mignolet | 6 | 18 | 5 | | Green | 5 | 21 | 5
Guzan | 5 | 17 | 3 | | Heaton | 5 | 20 | 5
Fabianski | 6 | 15 | 3 | | Mannone | 4 | 16 | 5
Szczesny | 5 | 15 | 3 | | Lloris | 5 | 17 | 4
Speroni | 5 | 15 | 3 | | Fabianski | 5 | 16 | 4
Lloris | 6 | 14 | 3 | | Guzan | 6 | 17 | 3
De Gea | 6 | 14 | 3 | | Foster | 5 | 17 | 3
Mannone | 5 | 14 | 3 | | Adrián | 5 | 14 | 3
Krul | 5 | 13 | 3 | | Speroni | 5.6 | 14 | 3
Hart | 5 | 13 | 3 | |
Heaton | 6 | 13 | 3
If you want a GK to make saves, get Green in. 5 pts from them at home. Ditto away. Very consistent.
By coupling with Table 5, you can see scoring pattern for some keepers. e.g. Courtois keeps CS at home and get pts from saves away (remember he scores similarly home and away).
Lloris, Fabiansky, Speroni consistently make saves, no matter whether it’s away or at home i.e. they get FF points from their defence allowing their opponents to take many shots at goal.
Table 7: Goals conceded & pts loss from them - home/away (ordered by ascending overall pts loss)
Goalkeepers | played | conceded at home | -1 | -2 | -3 | -4 | | | Goalkeepers | played | conceded away | -1 | -2 | -3 | -4
Forster | 6 | 1 | | | | | | | Forster | 6 | 4 | 1 | | |
Hart | 5 | 4 | | | | | | | Courtois | 6 | 8 | 1 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Courtois | 4.3 | 3 | 1 | | | | | | McGregor | 3 | 4 | 2 | | |
Fabianski | 6 | 4 | 1 | | | | | | Foster | 5 | 5 | 2 | | |
De Gea | 6 | 5 | 1 | | | | | | Howard | 6 | 7 | 2 | |
Adrián | 6 | 6 | 1 | | | | | | Begovic | 6 | 8 | 2 | | |
Mignolet | 6 | 6 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | |
Begovic | 6 | 5 | 1 | | | | | | Hart | 5 | 6 | 3 | | |
| | | | | | | | | Szczesny | 6 | 7 | 3 | | |
Green | 5 | 5 | 2 | | | | | | Fabiansky | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | |
Szczesny | 5 | 6 | 2 | | | | | | Krul | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | |
Mannone | 5 | 6 | 2 | | | | | | Guzan | 5 | 8 | 3 | | |
Heaton | 6 | 9 | 2 | | | | | | Lloris | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | |
| | | | | | | | | Adrián | 5 | 8 | 3 | | |
Krul | 5 | 7 | 3 | | | | | | De Gea | 5 | 9 | 1 | 1 | |
McGregor | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | | | | | Mignolet | 5 | 9 | 3 | | |
Lloris | 6 | 8 | 3 | | | | | | | | | | | |
Speroni | 5 | 8 | 3 | | | | | | Schmeichel | 5 | 9 | 4 | | |
Schmeichel | 5 | 9 | 3 | | | | | | Speroni | 5.6 | 11 | 4 | | |
Guzan | 5 | 8 | 3 | | | | | | Heaton | 5 | 10 | 2 | 1 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Foster | 5 | 8 | 4 | | | | | | Mannone | 4 | 11 | 1 | | | 1 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Howard | 5 | 11 | 2 | | 1 | | | | Green | 5 | 14 | 3 | 2 |
Again, avoid Green away. Favour him at home.
On the contrary, Foster and Howard perform better away.
Hart at home is worth keeping an eye on. If you could fit him in he could be great over the Christmas period with 3 home games out of 4.
Some deceptive numbers here too. Mignolet and Begovic don’t concede much at home but almost always concede. Ignore them.
Krul, Lloris, Guzan, Heaton concede roughly the same home and away. I guess that makes them nice unique keeper options.
To summarise.
From Mr. P.Christmas period fixtures list I see:- Man City, QPR and AV with favourable runs.
- Hull with a good one
- CP, WB, Newcastle & Everton with decent ones.
Since Guzan’s doing better away than home, Hart and Green seem the 2 best options. Hart could be a great option from GW16 onwards. Green can be paired with CP’s Speroni. They rotate well and perform way better home than away. It may be too dear a pairing though depending on the amount of big guns you may have upfront.
Pairing 2 GKs from Hull could be interesting too, especially from GW17 onwards. Though not the cheapest of options. They rotate perfectly with Burnley but since Hull GKs have performed better away than home a daring gamble could be to rotate them with WB but playing each keeper away
...
In the end, the popular Newcastle combo could well continue to work out decently :rolleyes: :P...0 -
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Yeah. I didn't mention him in my summary since he's gonna play thrice away out of his 4 games around Christmas (Hul (a), AV (H), Liverpool (a) and QPR (a)). But yeah overall he has a cracking run ahead of him notably CP and QPR at home for GWs13-14.The Wild Bunch wrote: »Fabianski has some cracking fixtures going forward 0 -
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Moving this back to the right thread.....Any reason you excluding Fabianski/SSwansea in that 123? His fixtures looking pretty good too me. I know they have 3 of 4 away over the xmas double headers but the aways include Hull and QPR. Spurs (h) and Pool (a) are their toughest games on paper on the next 9.Yeah that's because of this 3 away out of 4 during Christmas. I'd put Fabianski just behind the ones I cited. Think I can remove Hull though. We actually only have partial stats for them (since they used their 3 GKs) and McGregor pts are distorted by his GW1 14 pts. Also their fixtures are pretty good for Christmas but not ideal before.
But yeah Fabianski could be a decent option. And to get 3 pts at the Etihad just proves it.
Just to further this, on your original list my less statistical, more gut approach to the options would be....- Man City, QPR and AV with favourable runs......
Hart I reckon the best if you have the cash, may get him in from GW16 yet.
QPR defending still a bit ropey but Green value at the price and could work out well.
Villa looking tighter at the back tonight but not reliable. I've Hutton so not for me. - Hull with a good one....
No faith in them whatsoever for clean sheets. Bad run on buildup to Xmas. - CP, WB, Newcastle & Everton with decent ones.
CP..not much faith in Palace or Everton for clean sheets. Newcastle a good option, but I have Dummet.
So IMO I'd put Fabianski on form and fixtures second only to Hart, and ahead of Krul or Green but taking the price into it just behind or level.0 - Man City, QPR and AV with favourable runs......
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