Ireland Team Talk/Gossip/Rumour Thread II

Howard Juneau wrote: »

Opinions are neither right nor wrong

What if your opinion is 2+2=5?

What follows is a rambling dossier I've assembled of a Sunday night to allow me to procrastinate from doing some work I promised to do on Friday night. Cheers!

...Thinking a bit harder about the team I'd like to see picked and the way I'd like to see us play, I've been trying to track down the expected Scottish team, without much luck. But I can only imagine they'll be very like last season, and that doesn't really inspire much hope that they'll bring anything remotely interesting to the field. However it also doesn't inspire much hope that they'll be particularly easy to break down, or willing to roll over for us.

My thoughts on the Scottish team in the past few years is that they are high in motivation and work ethic, but low in true talent. There are two types of underdog victory, either through bringing the opposition down to your level or raising yourself above theirs (for Irish reference: Australia 2011 or England 2011). The Scottish certainly seem more likely to pull off the former (which should not by any less impressive, I don't mean it condescendingly, such results are only derived through utter dominance in certain areas).

We know all about their approach, because we embodied it year on year and gained a lot from it. We've also witnessed the weakness of such an approach first hand. It's all about breaking the game down, bringing the opposition into as many 50/50 contests as possible, and then capitalising at that point. Pick a facet of the game you gan gain the upper hand, force the game in that direction, and do it repeatedly, emphasising your strengths and making your weaknesses redundant. When Scotland play well they do exactly that, with a destructive lineout to put pressure on the opposition and an intelligent skillful halfback to ensure it's being done in opposition territory. When they get the ball, they aren't focused on keeping it for 20 phases because they haven't a clue what to do with it past the 5th, and even if they did their pack isn't physical or athletic enough to maintain possession that long anyway. Any dangerous back play comes in the first few phases off a turnover or off a set piece. And if that doesn't come quickly, their talismanic 9 is disposing of possession before it's too late.

So they are very much like an early EOS Ireland team, with (less) talent all in different positions, but in (philosophically) all the same places. So how do you beat a team like that? In my experience, such a team is beaten through a tight, technically superior, strong-willed performance. Which is nonsense psychobabble for doing the basics better than they can hope to. We need to play our basic game well enough that they are unable to spoil it, to bring the standard of the match above their reach. Don't let them turn the breakdown into a 50/50 affair, it can't come down to who wants it more. Don't let them spoil our lineout, we need to keep the set piece simple and secure our own ball. You don't need to be destructive on opposition set-piece ball when you dominate open play, because they will never be able to derive a put-in in your territory. Keep the ball through phases and dominate possession all over the field, and use that possession to slowly pull away. We don't necessarily need to score any tries to be 15 points ahead of this Scottish team at half time. And then when the 2nd half settles down and they are starting to lose touch and tire (from consistently defending all day as we keep them off the ball), we use our depth from the bench to launch an attack and change the tempo of the game on our own terms, spending the final 20 minutes trying to break their defense completely and tear through them with attacking creative play at every opportunity. This is a game plan about strangling them for 60 minutes and then ripping their windpipe out with the rest, crucially silencing any nearby bagpipes in the process.

And so, with THAT in mind and having been said, I can now suggest my own team. It's not the best 15 players available, it's the best 15 players to play the game I've just described in the fashion I've just described.

Cian Healy, Rory Best, Mike Ross, Devin Toner, Paul O'Connell, Rhys Ruddock, Chris Henry, Jamie Heaslip; Conor Murray, Johnny Sexton, Luke Fitzgerald, Gordon D'Arcy, Brian O'Driscoll, Fergus McFadden, Rob Kearney
Sean Cronin, Jack McGrath, Martin Moore, Dan Tuohy, Peter O'Mahoney, Eoin Reddan, Paddy Jackson, Simon Zebo

To go through those, the front row I think is inarguably the best available and will be picked for obvious reasons. From them, all I think we need is an experienced mature performance in the set piece, we just need to win all our own ball, nothing crazy is needed on opposition possession. In open play, Healy and Best will undoubtedly be hugely influential, and I think Healy has a massive role to play to make up for the loss of SOB's carrying threat. He also could be massive after 60 minutes if he lasts it. Mike Ross isn't half the player the others are in the loose, but he doesn't need to be in this game. Jack McGrath and more so Martin Moore are young, athletic and will be able to actually make some form of impact in the 3rd quarter, I doubt they'd be capable of influencing the game meaningfully in the opening half.

In the row, you have the unquestionable and crucial leadership of Paul O'Connell beside an in-form Toner. Toner is there because he gives us our 100% chance in the lineout, he dominated the lineout against that certain Scottish 2nd Row in the H Cup not so long ago and with O'Connell organising things he should be even more effective. The offensive lineout is absolutely crucial, for those wondering why I am highlighting it, because Laidlaw will find touch in our territory, and we cannot give up possession cheaply when he does. The defensive lineout is almost irrelevant, because unless were doing something very wrong they should not be putting the ball into it in dangerous positions (or any positions at all) with regularity. Dan Tuohy on the bench is aggressive, powerful and perfect for when we up the tempo in the 3rd quarter.

The back row will be something a lot of people would be feeling angry about. Purely because of O'Mahoney, and that is absolutely fair enough if you disregard my earlier reasoning. I think he is definitely in the top 3 back row forwards available to us, in fact I think he is better than 2 of the back row forwards I picked above. But if you recall my earlier talk of windpipes and strangulation, Peter O'Mahoney's use in this way is absolutely indicative of what I want to see. Rhys Ruddock can't make nearly the impact in an open attacking game that POM can, but that's not what I think we should be pursuing in the first half, the back row in the first half will be entirely tasked with following possession closely and ruthlessly dispatching the Scots before they can make a dent, and these two flankers are all about exactly that. It's a tiresome process, especially if we do our job and go through 10+ phase possessions with regularity. When we change tempo, it will need to be accompanied with fresh legs, and the introduction of POM could be the turning point IMO. A strong point could be made that Chris Henry is capable of similar and that switch would offer more over the 80 minutes (POM/Ruddock starting with Henry on for Ruddock after 60). But I think POM offers a far more aggressive attacking presence off the bench, which I think could actually be more influential than the individual performances of either of the other two over the first 60. We know what Heaslip brings, he'll be among the best forwards on the park no matter how we set out our stall.

The half backs pick themselves really. Murray and Sexton playing the possession-driven controlling rugby which I think suits both of them perfectly for possibly the first time apart from under Gatland (but that doesn't count... because Howley). Reddan being a crucial addition at the turn with Jackson maybe picking up a consolation cap (he'll be covering injury to the geriatric centers as well so I doubt we'll see much of him regardless of the game plan).

The back line mostly picks itself to my mind. A Schmidt back line has never seemed to be about individual brilliance (which is why we got rid of that Nacewa messer) out wide, but rather about the ability to create space for anyone, the backs serving as conduits for strike runners around them, regardless of the strike runners position. In the context of this game, it's about the ability to combine attacking threat with consistency and reliability in terms of retaining possession, the lack of Bowe giving McFadden a possible chance (I'd like to see Trimble either instead of McFadden, it's really a 50/50 call to me). Zebo is a certainty on the bench for me if he's fully fit now, when we put the foot down it'd be nice to have an absolute flyer to take advantage of all the space we'd hope to create.

The ref will be Craig Joubert, and I think we can make that suit us if we're smart. If we play clean and solid attacking rugby in the first half, I think he'll facilitate us with shots on goal. Last season Craig Joubert officiated over a record-breaking game between Scotland and Wales that saw 18 kicks at goal, so we need to ensure that if he's in that sort of move that it is to our advantage (and we can't give Laidlaw a sniff). As it's a SH ref there should be nothing stopping us dominating the breakdown.

Overall I think we'd be capable of this. I think there's plenty the Scots will throw at us, but if we retain composure, keep to the plan, and play towards the areas where our strengths overlap with their weaknesses then I think we should have enough about ourselves. I think we can win by a good margin and usher in a new era, and I could see it being something like 33-12 at full time.

That's my team, my opinion, my justification for the selection and my prediction. Of course, Scotland might drop Richie Gray, in that case I reckon we're in for a really tight game and I hope we can manage to squeeze a victory out of it.

Swiwi. wrote: »

A few tweaks when the teams are announced, add a table and a prediction - and we have our match preview!

I've been planning to write a table generating script that will do all the hard work for us people who aren't like Molloy and stick it up on a website for us, I just need to find more time to procrastinate later this week!