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Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’

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    #1802
    cookie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 6,794 ✭✭✭cookie1977


    This was pretty depressing to see:
    The wife of discharged bankrupt developer Larry O'Mahony has secured court orders for family living expenses of €9,000 a month out of €1m frozen money.


    Christine Connolly, who claims she owns the money from which the expenses are being paid, had looked for €10,000 a month total living expenses.

    This was to include €3,000-€3,5000 to rent a four-bedroom house in south Dublin and €1,644 school fees and extra-curricular expenses for her three children.
    The bank had opposed the application.
    Its lawyer Cian Ferriter argued that while Ms Connolly and her husband Mr O'Mahony had "lived a Celtic Tiger lifestyle" when they had wealth, they did not have that anymore and should adjust accordingly.

    He said IBRC accepted the law provides for payment of living expenses to fund the lifestyle to which a person was reasonably accustomed.

    However, the bank was conscious that if its claim to the frozen monies was upheld, the expenses were being funded by the Irish taxpayer.

    Senior Counsel for Ms Connolly, Martin Hayden, said the expenses sought were reasonable and his client had reduced the family outgoings.

    IBRC had previously agreed to expenses of some €6,500 a month and Ms Connolly wanted an additional sum of €3,750 a month to cover costs including renting a property for her family who must leave their home on Dublin's Shrewsbury Road shortly as it had been repossessed by NAMA, Mr Hayden said.

    http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/1113/486532-larry-omahony-christine-connolly-court/?noredirection=true


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    #1803
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    Yep thought the same myself its as if the courts are saying the family have to be kept in the same standard of living they were in and. Couldn't possibly be told to rent in a cheaper area,put kids in state schools or even reduce car costs. Its two fingers to the ordinary Irish a really working for a living.


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    #1804
    cookie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 6,794 ✭✭✭cookie1977


    I think what I found depressing was that "average" people are making adjustments to their lives now to go with the decreased income. Dropping health insurance, cutting back expenditure on lifestyle, limiting family size etc... so that by the time an "average" person, god forbid, faced repossession their lifestyle would be a lot cheaper then their pre cut back lifestyle. It seems this person above made no attempt to adjust their lifestyle as their income came under pressure and just ploughed on anyway.

    Now facing the courts they are rewarded for that and get to maintain a very nice lifestyle on 9000 euro a month with no slap on the hand for not adjusting it prior to ending up in the courts. Where is the justice?


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    #1805
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,534 ✭✭✭Villa05


    cookie1977 wrote: »
    This was pretty depressing to see:



    http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/1113/486532-larry-omahony-christine-connolly-court/?noredirection=true

    But these are wealth creators

    F**K them and the system they have created to protect themselves while we fools pay for it all

    The same with property, a few professional classes making a killing while you lot put yourselves in mortgage slavery to fund it

    For Christ sake wake-uip and pay attention to who is scre*ing you and fight back

    Check out the tax changes on accumulation of pensions. The ceiling was changed from 60k to 200k per year. Now who made that change and guess what pension they will be receiving, from your taxes of course. The 60K ceiling would have saved the taxpayer €2,500,000,000

    Free crutches should be handed out


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    #1806
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    Moody's have called the bottom of the Irish property market.... source. .. wait for it... the indo


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    #1807
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,534 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Cookie, a judge set this precedent, a not unimportant person. How many judges have a few btls. Do you see where this is going.


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    #1808
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    handlemaster wrote: »
    Moody's have called the bottom of the Irish property market.... source. .. wait for it... the indo

    Whether they have called the bottom or not- they are still the rating agency who have the lowest rating on Ireland and Irish debt- and they made a specific statement in September regarding the then forthcoming budget and what the various scenarios would mean. Going by their budget statement- there isn't any particular reason to read anything positive into their current statement (presuming the statement isn't a figment of a journalist's overworked imagination- or hasn't been edited beyond all recognition).


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    #1809
    moxin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,203 ✭✭✭moxin


    We know mortgage lending is flat(same as last year) and the recent mini bubble is driven by cash, what's new?

    They kindly omit their analysis as to what happens when the cash runs out. They simply they don't know.
    http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/property-crash-over-as-moodys-insists-market-at-bottom-29753716.html
    "But Moody's analysts don't expect house prices to start rising again any time soon. A boost to house prices in Dublin as a result of cash buyers and shortages of supply in some areas was temporary, they said. "Flat lending activity by the Irish bank and high outstanding household debt across the county will restrict the house price recovery process," Moody's said.

    Instead, house price rises are anticipated to rise relatively slow, and it will be years before the effects of the crash are finally shaken off."


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    #1810
    jmayo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,157 ✭✭✭✭jmayo


    handlemaster wrote: »
    Moody's have called the bottom of the Irish property market.... source. .. wait for it... the indo

    Ehh what was the rating moody's gave to subprime crud again ?


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    #1811
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,534 ✭✭✭Villa05


    They said there are SIGNS of a bottoming out process.

    The indo spun it to suit there agenda


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    #1812
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,534 ✭✭✭Villa05


    IBRC having a Sale
    IT has been billed as the great sell-off. Loans from the former Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide with a par value of some €22bn are up for sale, and they have to be gone by the end of the year if at all possible.

    Maybe they should call this one a more appropiate Project QUICKSAND
    PROJECT SAND

    Sand is very much the runt of the group. Made up of about 13,500 Irish Nationwide mortgages, Sand is considered the lowest rated portfolio by some distance.

    With a par value of €1.8bn, the first phase of the sand process began in October and is expected wrap up this week.

    The second phase – when binding bids are formally handed in – will probably happen next month, but only if there is any interest in the loans.

    That is very much an open question at this stage. Potential bidders have been looking at the loans closely, but for many would-be buyers they will be the definition of "toxic".

    It is understood that there has been some interest expressed in the Irish Nationwide loans but in the market there is scepticism that a buyer will be found for Project Sand.

    Having said that, as any business person will say, it only takes one buyer to make a market.

    Chances of a full sale: 1/5

    If this is sold for say 20c on the €, it could be very good news for the holders of these mortgages.

    http://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/nama-caught-between-rock-and-hard-place-as-selloff-ramps-up-29760483.html


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    #1813
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Villa05 wrote: »
    If this is sold for say 20c on the €, it could be very good news for the holders of these mortgages.

    http://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/nama-caught-between-rock-and-hard-place-as-selloff-ramps-up-29760483.html

    Why?
    In all liklihood- any purchasers will still expect people to pay their mortgages.
    Stated policy from some of the bidders- is to repossess and resell on the open market.
    This could be kick the sector needs to get repossessions on the road........

    Also keep in mind who is reporting this.........


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    #1814
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,534 ✭✭✭Villa05


    When America catches a cold..................
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101192450
    The jokes were flying in October and I'm not talking just about the failed HealthCare.gov debacle, I'm speaking of real estate. The joke is on the naïve crowd who rushed to buy a home this summer as fears of missing the next great housing boom appeared.

    Oops. Looks like housing is a bust, once again.


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    #1815
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,534 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    Why?
    In all liklihood- any purchasers will still expect people to pay their mortgages.
    Stated policy from some of the bidders- is to repossess and resell on the open market.
    This could be kick the sector needs to get repossessions on the road........

    Also keep in mind who is reporting this.........

    More scope for debt forgiveness, unlikely to be sold for that price though. anybody buying could not care less about moral hazard or evictions of course


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    #1816
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    There's a fair few guys on hear decrying about a false uptake on the property market and in particular dublin. I hope they dont come on here in a few years saying thinks like its alright for them they bought in 2012/ 2013 when prices were still low and mortgage rates low.


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    #1817
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Villa05 wrote: »
    More scope for debt forgiveness, unlikely to be sold for that price though. anybody buying could not care less about moral hazard or evictions of course

    Of course they won't care.
    What they'll do- is repossess, sell for whatever the market will take, and then package the residual amounts outstanding and sell the outstanding balances to loan management companies (many of which have vastly expanded their Irish operations over the past 12 months in anticipation of this).
    There is no particular reason for them to give loan forgiveness- indeed, it may be written in the terms of the sales of the property, that its off the cards- as it would set precedents, and have implications for other potential borrowers.

    The little people are not going to get widespread debt forgiveness. Doesn't matter how the Indo write their articles- its not going to be widespread in nature.

    First out of the blocks- BTL mortgages- PPRs thereafter- aka, pick the lower lying fruit first- esp. as it won't be politically awkward to do so- thereafter go for the PPRs in high demand locations- followed by doing some sort of deals in the rural areas/areas of lower demand- where they'd have trouble offloading the property anyway.

    This is a time limited operation- these guys are not here for the long run- they are here to do a clean up exercise that the banks haven't had the balls to do- and at 20c in the Euro- they can afford to be lethal. As they're getting in and out- they're also not going to care about who they offend, political pressure or lobby groups.

    Its a pity that we have to offload them at 20c in the pound to do the tidy up- but seeing as we don't have the guts to do it ourselves- thats the price we're willing to pay.


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    #1818
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,534 ✭✭✭Villa05


    handlemaster wrote: »
    saying thinks like its alright for them they bought in 2012/ 2013 when prices were still low and mortgage rates low.

    Buying when rates are low through the irish system is the worst time to buy. Rates can only go higher and higher rates means lower house prices, increasing arrears, people have less to spend and we go through the cycle again untill people wake up.

    Shocking how little has been learnt.


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    #1819
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Buying when rates are low through the irish system is the worst time to buy. Rates can only go higher and higher rates means lower house prices, increasing arrears, people have less to spend and we go through the cycle again untill people wake up.

    Shocking how little has been learnt.


    Higher rates Dont automatically mean lower prices. Rates will rise to what the market can take. The banks run a business and need to loan out to get income.


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    #1820
    earlyevening
    Registered Users Posts: 1,330 ✭✭✭earlyevening


    handlemaster wrote: »
    Higher rates Dont automatically mean lower prices. Rates will rise to what the market can take. The banks run a business and need to loan out to get income.

    The main determinant of mortgage rates is the cost of finance to the bank, not "what the market can take".

    There WILL come a time where rates have to rise because the interbank rates are rising even though the market cannot take it.

    When the base rate is only .25%, retail rates will almost certainly rise eventually.


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    #1821
    jmayo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,157 ✭✭✭✭jmayo


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    Of course they won't care.
    What they'll do- is repossess, sell for whatever the market will take, and then package the residual amounts outstanding and sell the outstanding balances to loan management companies (many of which have vastly expanded their Irish operations over the past 12 months in anticipation of this).
    There is no particular reason for them to give loan forgiveness- indeed, it may be written in the terms of the sales of the property, that its off the cards- as it would set precedents, and have implications for other potential borrowers.

    One would assume that NAMA/government would try and ensure that they don't engage in debt forgiveness because it could tip the applecart for the rest.
    If one institution was allowed engage in wholesale debt forgiveness then the whole mortgage book of the others would be in danger.
    Future borrowers interest rates would go through the roof.
    Oh and the one foreign bank left would be running for home.

    Then again this is Ireland where it took 8 years for legislation to enable directors of credit unions to be penalised for running amuck. :rolleyes:
    The_Conductor wrote: »
    The little people are not going to get widespread debt forgiveness. Doesn't matter how the Indo write their articles- its not going to be widespread in nature.

    We can but hope.


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    #1822
    Boom__Boom
    Registered Users Posts: 3,106 ✭✭✭Boom__Boom


    Interesting story in Mayo.

    Is this the start of the floodgates of repossessions?

    http://www.mayonews.ie/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=18926:banks-move-on-homeowners&catid=23:news&Itemid=46


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    #1823
    gaius c
    Registered Users Posts: 3,528 ✭✭✭gaius c


    cookie1977 wrote: »
    You now have a new landlord and that does not superced your rights as a tenant. The tenancy was in place prior to repossion so it still stands. Rights and laws must still be upheld and any evictions must fall under the proper procedures.

    That's what it should be but Threshold have said that the circumstance of a bank repossessing a property means that the tenants' rights fall into a legal limbo. They basically don't have any rights at all so any notice they are given is at the discretion of the bank.


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    #1824
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Boom__Boom wrote: »
    Interesting story in Mayo.

    Is this the start of the floodgates of repossessions?

    http://www.mayonews.ie/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=18926:banks-move-on-homeowners&catid=23:news&Itemid=46
    I like the business name picked by 'leading debt-mediation company in the west'
    Barclay and Lloyd has a certain je ne sais quoi about it.


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    #1825
    jmayo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,157 ✭✭✭✭jmayo


    The most insidious part of this article is the comment by the bould michael joe mcgreal.
    McGreal said that ‘short of write-downs’ there was no immediate solution to the looming crisis.
    “If you have a mortgage for €180,000, the market value for the house is probably €60,000 now. A person aged 25 could be paying that off for the rest of their lives,” Michael Joe McGreal continued.
    He suggested that an obvious alternative resolution was for the banks to write off one-third of the shortfall of the debt (ie the difference between the current value and the debt) over ten years; the Government to pay off another one-third, since it had already extracted a plethora of payments (Stamp Duty, Capital Gains Tax, PAYE, VAT etc) from the debtor; and, finally, for the house-owner to pay one-third.

    Well mr mcgreal you can go fook off with that idea.
    Some of those banks having to offer the 1/3 write down would be state owned.
    And where the fook does he think the government gets it's money from, would be the magic money tree that is so favoured by those with their paws out for a handout ?

    Basically he is saying that in a lot of incidents the taxpayers should offer to pay 66% of some people's mortgages.

    I wish to fook these clowns would just stop this crapology about how entities such as the banks and the government should offer this and that, when they really know it is the rest of us poor smucks who are footing the bill.


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    #1826
    Thargor
    Registered Users Posts: 17,895 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    A person aged 25 could be paying that off for the rest of their lives,” Michael Joe McGreal continued.
    And this didnt occur to them when they took the money in the first place? :confused:

    If I sign up for every credit card I can get my hands on and rack up debts that I might be paying off for the rest of my life will he come to arrange a 33-66% bailout for me?


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    #1827
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I wonder who was given a boom time mortgage at the age of 18 or 19?

    The company number listed on his website Reg. in Ireland: 428343 was dissolved Effective Date 18/11/2011 http://www.cro.ie/search/CompanyDetails.aspx?id=428343&type=C


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    #1828
    gaius c
    Registered Users Posts: 3,528 ✭✭✭gaius c


    Thargor wrote: »
    And this didnt occur to them when they took the money in the first place? :confused:

    If I sign up for every credit card I can get my hands on and rack up debts that I might be paying off for the rest of my life will he come to arrange a 33-66% bailout for me?

    Yeah but it's only okay to pay your debts when the value of the asset is increasing. When it drops, it's "inhuman" to expect them to pay the money back and "somebody else" should pay it instead.


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    #1829
    Boom__Boom
    Registered Users Posts: 3,106 ✭✭✭Boom__Boom


    jmayo wrote: »
    The most insidious part of this article is the comment by the bould michael joe mcgreal.



    Well mr mcgreal you can go fook off with that idea.
    Some of those banks having to offer the 1/3 write down would be state owned.
    And where the fook does he think the government gets it's money from, would be the magic money tree that is so favoured by those with their paws out for a handout ?

    Basically he is saying that in a lot of incidents the taxpayers should offer to pay 66% of some people's mortgages.

    I wish to fook these clowns would just stop this crapology about how entities such as the banks and the government should offer this and that, when they really know it is the rest of us poor smucks who are footing the bill.

    Isnt the Google machine great?

    Stuck his name in Google and found this link.
    http://electionsireland.org/8559

    By-Election in Mayo in 75 jogged the memory banks and lo and behold, who did Michael lose to?
    http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=1973B&cons=177%20&ref=98

    I wonder does Michael ever speculate about what might have been.....along the lines of "if I'd have gotten a few more votes,I'd be running the country now."

    He certainly has the astute handle on economics (well the magic Fianna Fail branch of money tree economics) so I'm sure in this alternative universe we'd all be smiling.


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    #1830
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    If it is the same man he never had a chance in that by-election.

    One P Flynn declined to stand for FF that time as he didn't think he would win.


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    #1831
    jmayo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,157 ✭✭✭✭jmayo


    Boom__Boom wrote: »
    Isnt the Google machine great?

    Stuck his name in Google and found this link.
    http://electionsireland.org/8559

    By-Election in Mayo in 75 jogged the memory banks and lo and behold, who did Michael lose to?
    http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=1973B&cons=177%20&ref=98

    I wonder does Michael ever speculate about what might have been.....along the lines of "if I'd have gotten a few more votes,I'd be running the country now."

    He certainly has the astute handle on economics (well the magic Fianna Fail branch of money tree economics) so I'm sure in this alternative universe we'd all be smiling.

    Are you sure it is the same guy?
    There is more than one michael mcgreal in Mayo you know.

    Although then again he did stand for ff, the property party. :rolleyes:


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