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A reasonably reliable method to predict points - Medicine, Pharmacy & DENTAL SCIENCE

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  • 16-08-2012 2:10am
    #1
    partyatmygaff
    Registered Users Posts: 10,992 ✭✭✭✭


    A few of you may remember my fairly successful attempt to estimate the points for undergraduate medicine last year. It kept my mind and a lot of other people's minds off speculation and baseless guessing on boards and in newspapers of points and i'd imagine it was fairly re-assuring for some people. I've decided to run the survey again this year.

    For those wondering why I only chose Medicine and Pharmacy I have two reasons. One, i'm fairly familiar with all eight courses and secondly both Medicine and Pharmacy are easy to work with for a survey like this. Unlike Law for example, medicine and pharmacy in any college has a single course code. Law on the other hand has many course codes for all the available options such as "Law and business" or "Law and French". The same goes for many other course groups like Engineering or Computer courses.

    For those who don't remember or weren't active on this forum last year, i'll quote last year's post as it sums up how this "system" works.
    To begin with, we need to understand how the CAO works. The "Points" of a course published in newspapers are the points of the lowest-scoring candidate that received an offer for the course in question. That is to say that if there are 300 offers made then the offer made to candidate #300 will serve as a cut-off point with regard to the points required for a course.

    Bearing this in mind, it is possible to obtain a somewhat accurate estimation of a course's points providing that a large proportion of applicants for the course in question take part in the "survey".

    Essentially, what this spreadsheet does is take people's points and their first preference (All anonymously) and with this generates highest, lowest, mean and median points for the individual courses. If X is the number of places available on a course, it takes the X highest scores, finds the lowest of them and uses that to generate an estimation. The more people that take part, the more accurate the estimation gets.

    Now, first of all there's one thing people need to understand. This method is not perfect. It may be off. It may be spot on. I don't know but it sure beats random speculation by newspapers and their journalists.

    Needless to say, this survey (Unlike the one I made for the Mock) needs massive participation. It needs to spread to as many candidates as possible so if people could spread the word (Preferably before Monday     biggrin.gif) that would be a great help to the effort. The mass uptake of this survey is absolutely vital to get a good estimation so do your best to spread the word to other applicants further afield than Boards.
    Pharmacy
    Data/Estimation
    http://goo.gl/CPLMh
    Survey
    http://goo.gl/84ukC

    Medicine
    Data/Estimation
    http://goo.gl/fZDv2
    Survey
    http://goo.gl/9Jn4r

    Dental Science / Dentistry
    Data/Estimation
    http://goo.gl/6w3AN
    Survey
    http://goo.gl/W5b9X


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Comments

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    #2
    Taco Chips
    Registered Users Posts: 565 ✭✭✭Taco Chips


    Filled in my details. I'll be really interested to see the results for this. Thanks a million for doing it again!


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    #3
    seriouslysweet
    Registered Users Posts: 566 ✭✭✭seriouslysweet


    Great idea


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    #4
    seriouslysweet
    Registered Users Posts: 566 ✭✭✭seriouslysweet


    It blacked out my results, is that cos I got over 600? I wrote in 563


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    #5
    Just Like Heaven
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,132 ✭✭✭Just Like Heaven


    I reckon the points for med are going to be reasonably similar this year (as in no 10 point jumps), because although hpat scores were slightly higher, the 5 points bonus for maths will push points up, but more importantly see that more people reach 550.


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    #6
    johnnyboy18
    Registered Users Posts: 24 ✭johnnyboy18


    Great work! I'll be constantly checking this!


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    #7
    johnnyboy18
    Registered Users Posts: 24 ✭johnnyboy18


    fewtinsoffroth wrote: »
    I reckon the points for med are going to be reasonably similar this year (as in no 10 point jumps), because although hpat scores were slightly higher, the 5 points bonus for maths will push points up, but more importantly see that more people reach 550.

    This doesn't make sense?


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    #8
    partyatmygaff
    Registered Users Posts: 10,992 ✭✭✭✭partyatmygaff


    seriouslysweet wrote: »
    It blacked out my results, is that cos I got over 600? I wrote in 563
    A lot of the spreadsheet code was carried over from last year where the maximum was 560. It's been changed now to reflect the new maximum of 565.

    (On that note... i've changed one 575 result to 555.)


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    #9
    JamJamJamJam
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭JamJamJamJam


    Somebody got the very same LC and HPAT scores as me... Cool :P

    How long should it take to get estimations?


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    #10
    Just Like Heaven
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,132 ✭✭✭Just Like Heaven


    johnnyboy18 wrote: »
    This doesn't make sense?

    No? Hpat was more difficult this year, so points will go down. But extra points for maths means more people will reach 550, and more people will get more points, therefore pushing them up. So, I reckon it'll be a slight rise, but not as drastic as last year.


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    #11
    johnnyboy18
    Registered Users Posts: 24 ✭johnnyboy18


    fewtinsoffroth wrote: »
    No? Hpat was more difficult this year, so points will go down. But extra points for maths means more people will reach 550, and more people will get more points, therefore pushing them up. So, I reckon it'll be a slight rise, but not as drastic as last year.

    Ok I understand now, thanks.


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    #12
    johnnyboy18
    Registered Users Posts: 24 ✭johnnyboy18


    Do you still have your predictions for last year? Be interesting to see how close you were...


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    #13
    Darksider
    Registered Users Posts: 111 ✭✭Darksider


    fewtinsoffroth wrote: »
    No? Hpat was more difficult this year, so points will go down. But extra points for maths means more people will reach 550, and more people will get more points, therefore pushing them up. So, I reckon it'll be a slight rise, but not as drastic as last year.

    HPAT was more difficult? Where did you hear that? The max score went down by 4 points but the percentile:score scale stayed roughly the same. Those 25 points are going to have a huge effect because a) way more people will be hitting 550 and b) anyone from 2011 who didn't get a place, had a good hpat but 525 points or less, can reapply with a whole +25 to their score.
    Imagine this:

    In 2011, someone got a hpat of 202 and 525 points in the leaving cert. This leaves them with 727 points. Not enough for nuig in 2011, but this year they'll have 550 points and 202 which means their combined score is now 752.


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    #14
    Just Like Heaven
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,132 ✭✭✭Just Like Heaven


    I can't remember the exact figures but I remember looking and say (for example) 181 this year would put you at 84th percentile, whereas last year 84th percentile would have scored you 190 or something.


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    #15
    Darksider
    Registered Users Posts: 111 ✭✭Darksider


    fewtinsoffroth wrote: »
    I can't remember the exact figures but I remember looking and say (for example) 181 this year would put you at 84th percentile, whereas last year 84th percentile would have scored you 190 or something.

    Nope, 181 was around 82-84th percentile in both 2011 and 2012

    194 is roughly 93-95th percentile for both years too.


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    #16
    fleeflyfloflum
    Closed Accounts Posts: 64 ✭✭fleeflyfloflum


    Darksider wrote: »
    HPAT was more difficult? Where did you hear that? The max score went down by 4 points but the percentile:score scale stayed roughly the same. Those 25 points are going to have a huge effect because a) way more people will be hitting 550 and b) anyone from 2011 who didn't get a place, had a good hpat but 525 points or less, can reapply with a whole +25 to their score.
    Imagine this:

    In 2011, someone got a hpat of 202 and 525 points in the leaving cert. This leaves them with 727 points. Not enough for nuig in 2011, but this year they'll have 550 points and 202 which means their combined score is now 752.

    Presuming they have an A1 in maths, for every grade further down the effect decreases.


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    #17
    johnnyboy18
    Registered Users Posts: 24 ✭johnnyboy18


    It's heating up nicely! Here's hoping the big guns got their scores in early!


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    #18
    randylonghorn
    Moderators, Education Moderators Posts: 29,509 Mod ✭✭✭✭randylonghorn


    johnnyboy18 wrote: »
    Do you still have your predictions for last year? Be interesting to see how close you were...
    From what I remember, he was nearer the mark than I expected.

    It does very much rely on getting a good input of *accurate* data though.


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    #19
    partyatmygaff
    Registered Users Posts: 10,992 ✭✭✭✭partyatmygaff


    randylonghorn wrote: »
    From what I remember, he was nearer the mark than I expected.

    It does very much rely on getting a good input of *accurate* data though.
    That's absolutely vital. I need accurate data and a lot of it to be able to have any chance of even vaguely approximating the points.

    Highly accurate or off the mark, it's still a far less worrying exercise than reading speculation and relying on baseless guessing.

    In other news, i've got a few very early preliminary estimations for TCD, UCD and NUIG. With only 88 entries at the time of this post, take them with a pinch of salt. For those interested:

    TCD
    747 points

    UCD
    743 points

    NUIG
    740 points

    My personal opinion (Which may be wrong) is TCD won't be too far off what's currently being estimated. UCD will be a bit higher than current estimations (But not by much) and NUIG may be a tiny bit lower than current estimations. My opinion is based on usual trends in points over the past few years and is even less reliable than the numbers posted above.

    As of yet, there isn't enough data for a preliminary estimation for RCSI, UCC Medicine or TCD, RCSI, UCC Pharmacy.


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    #20
    Taco Chips
    Registered Users Posts: 565 ✭✭✭Taco Chips


    partyatmygaff wrote: »
    TCD
    747 points

    I have repeated the HPAT 3 times and am on 747. I swear to God if this doesn't go my way I will cut a bitch. :)


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    #21
    jos360
    Registered Users Posts: 153 ✭✭jos360


    Ah here, who's the smart fecker getting 800 combined. I mean, is there any need for that? Now me mammy wants to know why I'm in the 740's... :L

    Nah, fair play tho, thats sick man!


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    #22
    Darksider
    Registered Users Posts: 111 ✭✭Darksider


    Entries 49-51 look like duplicates, exact same entry three times in quick succession.


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    #23
    JamJamJamJam
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭JamJamJamJam


    jos360 wrote: »
    Ah here, who's the smart fecker getting 800 combined. I mean, is there any need for that? Now me mammy wants to know why I'm in the 740's... :L

    Nah, fair play tho, thats sick man!

    I saw that :O Must be the first person to break 800?? And look where they're going... UCC! It's obviously the coolest college...


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    #24
    partyatmygaff
    Registered Users Posts: 10,992 ✭✭✭✭partyatmygaff


    Darksider wrote: »
    Entries 49-51 look like duplicates, exact same entry three times in quick succession.
    In Medicine? Rows 49-51 all appear to be different.


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    #25
    InsertAnyName
    Registered Users Posts: 1 ✭InsertAnyName


    partyatmygaff wrote: »
    In Medicine? Rows 49-51 all appear to be different.

    They mean rows 51-53
    Thanks for doing this :)


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    #26
    Darksider
    Registered Users Posts: 111 ✭✭Darksider


    partyatmygaff wrote: »
    Darksider wrote: »
    Entries 49-51 look like duplicates, exact same entry three times in quick succession.
    In Medicine? Rows 49-51 all appear to be different.

    yeah, shows up as nuig and exact same leaving cert and hpat. first entry was

    8/16/2012
    17:40:47

    edit: they're 49-51 for me, directly after the one that says adjusted from 580 to 556. must show up differently for others


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    #27
    partyatmygaff
    Registered Users Posts: 10,992 ✭✭✭✭partyatmygaff


    Removed 52 and 53. Thanks for letting me know.


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    #28
    partyatmygaff
    Registered Users Posts: 10,992 ✭✭✭✭partyatmygaff


    First preliminary estimation for pharmacy is ready.

    TCD Pharmacy
    580 points

    At this very early stage with only 12 entries, take the above estimation with a very big pinch of salt. Remember that the more entries received the more accurate the estimation should be.


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    #29
    jos360
    Registered Users Posts: 153 ✭✭jos360


    Would ya ever be sound and drop your TCD estimation by two points to make me feel better? :)


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    #30
    Derick990
    Registered Users Posts: 48 ✭Derick990


    Hey under your predictions your taking the available places on TCD and NUIG's courses to be 92 and 90 respectively whereas on Qualifax.ie they are both quoted around 120. Is that something you can change or does it even matter?


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    #31
    jos360
    Registered Users Posts: 153 ✭✭jos360


    Derick990 wrote: »
    Hey under your predictions your taking the available places on TCD and NUIG's courses to be 92 and 90 respectively whereas on Qualifax.ie they are both quoted around 120. Is that something you can change or does it even matter?

    If you check the facebook page of 'TCD med class of 2017' theres already about 35 members :) Not all places go to us LC students, the Canadians and Americans snap em up!


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