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Property prices are on the way back up!

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  • 25-06-2012 1:07pm
    #1
    goodie2shoes
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 702 ✭✭✭


    HOUSE prices increased by 0.2pc in May with Dublin up for a third month in a row although year-on-year there was a drop.

    According to the latest figures from the Central Statistics Office, the 0.2pc increase in May compares with a drop of 1.1pc in April and 1.2pc in May of last year.

    National prices fell by 15.3pc in the year ended May.

    And in Dublin, prices were 17.5pc lower than a year ago.

    The price of properties excluding Dublin rose by 0.1pc in May compared with a decline of 2.1pc in May last year.

    Dublin house prices are 55pc lower than at their highest level in 2007.

    Dublin apartment prices are 61pc lower than in February of the same year.

    http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-prices-up-02pc-in-may-but-dublin-climbs-for-third-month-in-row-3149448.html


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Comments

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    #2
    chin_grin
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,808 ✭✭✭✭chin_grin


    67% of statistics are made up on the spot.


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    #3
    I Heart Internet
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,678 ✭✭✭I Heart Internet


    I'm worried.

    I just feel like I need to get on the property ladder now or I'll never be able to afford to buy a place!!


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    #4
    goodie2shoes
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 702 ✭✭✭goodie2shoes


    i have statistics which can prove you wrong.


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    #5
    djk1000
    Closed Accounts Posts: 899 ✭✭✭djk1000


    Dead cat bounce.

    Lots of civil servants taking early retirement are cash buying properties with their lump sums as an investment.

    If Angela Merkal sneezes, prices will drop again.


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    #6
    biko
    Registered Users Posts: 81,223 ✭✭✭✭biko


    From After Hours

    It could be temporary. And what about the rest of the nation?


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    #7
    goodie2shoes
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 702 ✭✭✭goodie2shoes


    biko wrote: »
    From After Hours

    It could be temporary.

    3 months in a row!
    are you mad?


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    #8
    goodie2shoes
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 702 ✭✭✭goodie2shoes


    biko wrote: »
    From After Hours

    And what about the rest of the nation?

    figures for Leitrim were not considered statistically relevant.


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    #9
    seamus
    Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    3rd month in a row for Dublin. First time since properties started the downward trend.

    In general, any upwardness appears to be the house market in Dublin dragging everyone else along kicking and screaming.

    The properly significant figures are the increase in Dublin house prices, while Dublin apartment prices saw a drop again.

    This would indicate that despite all of the scoffing about claims that Dublin is "running out" of properties, demand for properties in the capital appears to be on the up, which would also tie into anecdotal claims of there being large groups of people at weekend viewings, and more people being approved for mortgages.

    Definitely early doors though. The tiny figures involved indicate that it's still a very fragile market.


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    #10
    TheDriver
    Registered Users Posts: 12,423 ✭✭✭✭TheDriver


    better run down and take out 3 more mortgages on the strength of the rise........


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    #11
    daltonmd
    Registered Users Posts: 1,246 ✭✭✭daltonmd


    goodie2shoes wrote: »
    3 months in a row!
    are you mad?

    When this:


    National prices fell by 15.3pc in the year ended May.
    And in Dublin, prices were 17.5pc lower than a year ago.


    Changes to this:


    National prices ROSE by X in the year ended May.
    And in Dublin, prices were X HIGHER than a year ago.


    Then you know house prices are in recovery.


    3 months isn't temporary? So this to you is a definate recovery that is ongoing?





    Ok so.










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    #12
    jimmycrackcorm
    Registered Users Posts: 14,331 ✭✭✭✭jimmycrackcorm


    I Heart Internet wrote: »
    I'm worried.

    I just feel like I need to get on the property ladder now or I'll never be able to afford to buy a place!!

    Don't worry - there'll be a soft landing.


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    #13
    gurramok
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    seamus wrote: »
    3rd month in a row for Dublin. First time since properties started the downward trend.

    In general, any upwardness appears to be the house market in Dublin dragging everyone else along kicking and screaming.

    The properly significant figures are the increase in Dublin house prices, while Dublin apartment prices saw a drop again.

    This would indicate that despite all of the scoffing about claims that Dublin is "running out" of properties, demand for properties in the capital appears to be on the up, which would also tie into anecdotal claims of there being large groups of people at weekend viewings, and more people being approved for mortgages.

    Definitely early doors though. The tiny figures involved indicate that it's still a very fragile market.

    They can't be all in Dublin?:rolleyes: 2630 mortgages issued in Q1 2012 nationwide.

    Mortgage lending continues its downward slide in Q1 2102, the raise(if its true) must be from cash sales? Total drawdowns still decreasing. And definitely from a tiny number of transactions which are down 90%+ from 2007.

    http://www.ibf.ie/Libraries/Research_Statistics/IBFPwC_Mortgage_Market_Profile_Q1_2012.sflb.ashx
    IBF wrote:
    In Q1 2012, 2,630 mortgage loans were issued. This represents a decrease in lending of 19.3%
    compared with Q1 2011 and a decrease of 31.8% compared with the previous quarter


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    #14
    Roxee
    Registered Users Posts: 71 ✭✭Roxee


    Well I have a cousin who's a solicitor and said they've seen a steady rise in conveyancing business in the last 6 months. They're now doing probably 8 times as much as they were at the height of recession.

    That's not a made up statistic, that's the reality for that solicitor's office. So if more people are getting back in the market, it should follow that prices will creep up, no?


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    #15
    Theboinkmaster
    Registered Users Posts: 3,978 ✭✭✭Theboinkmaster


    What happens when interest rates rise from their current historical lows.
    What happens when unemployment rises to above 15% next year.
    What happens when property tax is introduced/increased.
    What happens when taxes are raised again in this December's budget.
    What happens when Narma releases properties to the market.

    Overall prices are only going one way and that's down. Anyone else who begs to differ is either a desparate vested interest or just retarded :rolleyes:


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    #16
    whippet
    Registered Users Posts: 7,674 ✭✭✭whippet


    all this generalization is nonsense.

    The right properties in the right locations will always have demand, now that there are some willing buyers about these prime properties will see slight increases.

    However, the vast majority of properties up for sale in ireland would not be classified as prime properties.

    There are far too many Celtic Tiger McMansions and Generic Bubble time semi-d's for sale which if they can be sold will only be achieving minuscule prices.

    Ignore asking prices on daft and myhome.ie .. they are meaningless, anyone who has either bought or sold in the recent past will say that Asking prices do not reflect anything like the actual selling prices.


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    #17
    Ray Palmer
    Registered Users Posts: 8,367 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    seamus wrote: »
    3rd month in a row for Dublin. First time since properties started the downward trend.

    In general, any upwardness appears to be the house market in Dublin dragging everyone else along kicking and screaming.

    The properly significant figures are the increase in Dublin house prices, while Dublin apartment prices saw a drop again.

    This would indicate that despite all of the scoffing about claims that Dublin is "running out" of properties, demand for properties in the capital appears to be on the up, which would also tie into anecdotal claims of there being large groups of people at weekend viewings, and more people being approved for mortgages.

    Definitely early doors though. The tiny figures involved indicate that it's still a very fragile market.
    The whole running out of property would be displayed like this. The point was that the need will increase and supply wouldn't cope. Price rise would happen first as supply doesn't meet demand.
    Very minor change. I think it is better for everybody if the market stabilised.
    I am still curious what will happen to the larger houses around the city. Lots of 5 + bed houses close to the city. Who will want or be able to afford to keep them? Fuel is not going to get cheaper. The could end up split up like older houses but with so many apartments there won't be any need.


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    #18
    daltonmd
    Registered Users Posts: 1,246 ✭✭✭daltonmd


    Roxee wrote: »
    Well I have a cousin who's a solicitor and said they've seen a steady rise in conveyancing business in the last 6 months. They're now doing probably 8 times as much as they were at the height of recession.

    That's not a made up statistic, that's the reality for that solicitor's office. So if more people are getting back in the market, it should follow that prices will creep up, no?


    8 times more than the height of the boom?????


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    #19
    shopaholic01
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,916 ✭✭✭shopaholic01


    Ask any estate agent and they will tell you that the actual drop is at least 60% from the peak - 70% if you're serious about selling.


    But hell, the first bubble was a fairytale, we might as well have a sequel.


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    #20
    robd
    Registered Users Posts: 951 ✭✭✭robd


    daltonmd wrote: »
    8 times more than the height of the boom?????

    He said 8 times more than the height of the recession. As in they were probably doing 1 house every 2 months now there are doing 4 per month.

    There's a tendency amongst people to quote stats that fit their story.

    Lots of solicitors have gone out of business over the last 4 years due to relying heavily on conveyancing which totally dried up. There were way to many solicitors practices to meet normal non bubble needs. Most that went bust weren't sufficiently diversified. That's the real story.


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    #21
    daltonmd
    Registered Users Posts: 1,246 ✭✭✭daltonmd


    robd wrote: »
    He said 8 times more than the height of the recession. As in they were probably doing 1 house every 2 months now there are doing 4 per month.

    Oh, sorry, just noticed that lol - apologies poster!!

    Thanks robd.


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    #22
    Snakeblood
    Registered Users Posts: 4,466 ✭✭✭Snakeblood


    shopaholic01 wrote: »
    Ask any estate agent and they will tell you that the actual drop is at least 60% from the peak - 70% if you're serious about selling.

    Any estate agent will tell you anything to get you to buy or sell your house to be fair.


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    #23
    christmas2012
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,827 ✭✭✭christmas2012


    I think this is very irresponsible of people to be talking up a property boom,especailly in a recession,where people are still losing their jobs,how do they propose people pay for these prices...

    As far as i can see where i live prices are still down,thats because there is a sort of a property stand off , where people are simply not buying ,there fore prices stay low ,rock bottom.

    What will drive house prices up,talk like this,and people who are stupid and run out and panic buy in their droves..

    Be responsible for your actions and dont panic buy unless you want them to dictate the prices in the housing market again!


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    #24
    shopaholic01
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,916 ✭✭✭shopaholic01


    Snakeblood wrote: »
    Any estate agent will tell you anything to get you to buy or sell your house to be fair.

    True, but it's in their best interest to get as high a price as possible, yet sellers are still told to expect 60-70% off boom prices. Buyers are too cautious, and lack of finance means it is a buyer's market for those who can secure it.


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    #25
    strandroad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,676 ✭✭✭strandroad


    seamus wrote: »
    In general, any upwardness appears to be the house market in Dublin dragging everyone else along kicking and screaming.

    The properly significant figures are the increase in Dublin house prices, while Dublin apartment prices saw a drop again.

    I think that the market has fragmented and the stats go up because of mid-range family houses (3bed+) in Dublin. I am looking for a smaller house and have a number of properties bookmarked to check on regularly, have had for months; they don't seem to be going anywhere and the prices keep ticking down, probably a lot like with apartments - no rush at all. At the same time the supply of larger houses in the same areas is very limited, they are not too many and they seem to disappear much faster if reasonably priced. A house in our street took only 2-3 weeks to sell, and houses nearby don't hang around either unless very overpriced.


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    #26
    robd
    Registered Users Posts: 951 ✭✭✭robd


    daltonmd wrote: »
    When this:


    National prices fell by 15.3pc in the year ended May.
    And in Dublin, prices were 17.5pc lower than a year ago.


    Changes to this:


    National prices ROSE by X in the year ended May.
    And in Dublin, prices were X HIGHER than a year ago.


    Then you know house prices are in recovery.

    Agree 100%.

    Hard to weed though this thread and work out who's just being sarcastic with their favorable comments to this news and who's just doesn't get it.

    The market is too stagnant and Dublin is too small for month and month statistics to be meaningful. Year on year are all that matters. The average YOY reduction has been circa 15% for 4 years now. It peaked at 20% 4 months ago. So far all it has done is return towards the normal over the last 4 years.

    Anything in the 10-20% range YOY is really a non event. It's still going down at a reasonably high rate.

    That's the bit the property VI's don't like to spin.


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    #27
    ABajaninCork
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,411 ✭✭✭ABajaninCork


    Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics...:D


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    #28
    daltonmd
    Registered Users Posts: 1,246 ✭✭✭daltonmd


    robd wrote: »
    Agree 100%.

    Hard to weed though this thread and work out who's just being sarcastic with their favorable comments to this news and who's just doesn't get it.

    The market is too stagnant and Dublin is too small for month and month statistics to be meaningful. Year on year are all that matters. The average YOY reduction has been circa 15% for 4 years now. It peaked at 20% 4 months ago. So far all it has done is return towards the normal over the last 4 years.

    Anything in the 10-20% range YOY is really a non event. It's still going down at a reasonably high rate.

    That's the bit the property VI's don't like to spin.

    What do "increases", "decreases" and "dead cat bounces" all have in common?

    You can only see them for what they really are - after the fact.

    Months/years of increases - Boom
    Months/years of decreases - Bust


    This looks to me like a classical DCB.


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    #29
    Millem
    Registered Users Posts: 7,729 ✭✭✭Millem


    I wouldn't pay any attention to statistics or EA. Asking prices are just that, I would
    love to see sold prices being published. I know someone who bought a house recently a 3 bed with garage semi detached in a lovely area in SCD. The asking price was €450,000 the sold price was €350,000. My neighbour sold their house 18 months ago a 4bed detached with garage in SCD asking price was €650,000 sold price was €565,000. There is a big difference between asking and selling prices.


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    #30
    Gurgle
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,064 ✭✭✭Gurgle


    Theboinkmaster wrote: »
    Overall prices are only going one way and that's down. Anyone else who begs to differ is either a desparate vested interest or just retarded :rolleyes:
    Overall prices will trend with the local, national, continental and global economy, which is rather unstable in the western world at the moment.

    Anyone who claims to know otherwise is either deluded or lying or both.

    :p


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    #31
    Zipppy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,054 ✭✭✭Zipppy


    robd wrote: »
    He said 8 times more than the height of the recession. As in they were probably doing 1 house every 2 months now there are doing 4 per month.

    There's a tendency amongst people to quote stats that fit their story.

    Lots of solicitors have gone out of business over the last 4 years due to relying heavily on conveyancing which totally dried up. There were way to many solicitors practices to meet normal non bubble needs. Most that went bust weren't sufficiently diversified. That's the real story.

    Height of the recession???

    ehhh..we haven't got there yet..

    Wait till PAYE tax increases kick in next year, welafe cuts, property taxes, water rates, cuts to public sector pay, more job losses, more businesses closing down, more house repossessions, bailout no 2, banks needing billions more capital..

    The recession is only started folks :mad:


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