The lotterys fixed?

todolist · 18-11-2010 5:46pm

Seamus,great work on analyzing the Monday millions game.Now I understand why there have been so few winners.Thanks for an excellent post.

Jesus Wept · 21-11-2010 5:47am

seamus wrote: »

Depends on the numbers who play tbh.

The odds of winning an individual Monday millions draw are about 1 in 3.2 million.

So the odds of an individual winning over 41 draws are 41 in 3.2 million or about 1 in 78,000.

Pretty certain this isn't correct.

caseyann · 26-11-2010 12:01pm

I remember one of my professors doing the odds on winning the jackpot in the lotto.They were astronomical.Basically he said that you had better chance of dying

I only play lotto once in blue moon my odds of winning i therefore play them.:p

I used to buy all cash and i won so many times on them,since recession kicked in i have not won a penny on them.That says something.They arent putting as many out with winners on them as they did.

wolfpawnat · 26-11-2010 12:03pm

Am I the only one that notices that when it is won, it is usually in a well off area. Not a rick area but well off. Perfect example. Recently in Donnybrook in D4!!!!

They probably would not like to have us plebs moving into their well off areas!

caseyann · 26-11-2010 12:06pm

wolfpawnat wrote: »

Am I the only one that notices that when it is won, it is usually in a well off area. Not a rick area but well off. Perfect example. Recently in Donnybrook in D4!!!!

They probably would not like to have us plebs moving into their well off areas!

I personally know three families who won in the 3.8 million regions and not well off.Then that one man who had six kids unemployed from Ballymun or the flats who won.
I wonder if you did a thread on it and a poll,see how many people actually know people who won big amounts on the lotto and do a percentage when answered.

wolfpawnat · 26-11-2010 12:08pm

caseyann wrote: »

I personally know three families who won in the 3.8 million regions and not well off.Then that one man who had six kids unemployed from Ballymun or the flats who won.
I wonder if you did a thread on it and a poll,see how many people actually know people who won big amounts on the lotto and do a percentage when answered.

That must have sickened the Lottery lot. They would prefer to keep people like that in slum conditions!!!

caseyann · 26-11-2010 12:17pm

wolfpawnat wrote: »

That must have sickened the Lottery lot. They would prefer to keep people like that in slum conditions!!!

Have a look at this site.They give you the odds on winning in each scratch card.

http://lotto.ie/en/Games1/Scratchcards/All-Cash-Gold1/
One of a family of three, All Cash Gold offers great play value and great prizes and all for only €2!

* Match 3 from 8 amounts to win

* Tickets priced at €2

* Cash prizes from €4 to €10,000

* Free ticket prizes too!

* Win odds of 1: 5.7

All Cash goes Platinum - instantly win up to €50,000! Whats more, your chances are even better with 3 ways to win!

* Game 1: Match 3 Amounts - Win that Amount

* Game 2: Match 2 Amounts - Win that Amount or
Match 2 Amounts and a Money Bag symbol - Double that Amount

* Game 3: Reveal 3, 4, 5 or 6 Platinum Bars to win up to €50,000

* Average 1 in 3 wins cash How much cash though lol :rolleyes:

* Cash Prizes from €5 to €50,000

http://indigo.ie/~gerryq/Lotodds/lotodds.htm

seamus · 26-11-2010 12:38pm

The-Rigger wrote: »

Pretty certain this isn't correct.

Didn't sound right to me either, but calculations please

The idea that the numbers change every draw sounds like it should add extra complexity to the calculation. But I don't think it does. If I play the lotto once a week for 8 million weeks, the odds say that I should probably win once.

caseyann · 26-11-2010 1:29pm

seamus wrote: »

Didn't sound right to me either, but calculations please
The idea that the numbers change every draw sounds like it should add extra complexity to the calculation. But I don't think it does. If I play the lotto once a week for 8 million weeks, the odds say that I should probably win once.

Check the link in bottom of my above post,has odds counter for lotto.

Most Winning Lotto Numbers
The six most frequently occurring numbers in the Main Irish Lotto Draw in order of frequency:
13 39 36 2 3 44
Least Popular Balls
The six least frequently occurring numbers in the Main Lotto Draw are:
41 34 14 16 25 43

My question would be why

seamus · 26-11-2010 3:02pm

caseyann wrote: »

My question would be why

Standard randomness. I wouldn't expect all balls to have come out exactly the same amount of times.

You'd have to look at the exact number of times each ball has appeared and then compare that against the expected average and the standard deviation. Then you can look at the outliers and compare their frequency against the odds of them having appeared so often/rarely and decide if it's a practical impossibility.

Fun....if you like that sort of thing.

Jesus Wept · 26-11-2010 7:19pm

seamus wrote: »

Didn't sound right to me either, but calculations please
The idea that the numbers change every draw sounds like it should add extra complexity to the calculation. But I don't think it does. If I play the lotto once a week for 8 million weeks, the odds say that I should probably win once.

seamus wrote: »

Depends on the numbers who play tbh.

The odds of winning an individual Monday millions draw are about 1 in 3.2 million.

So the odds of an individual winning over 41 draws are 41 in 3.2 million or about 1 in 78,000.

It's 1 in 3.2 million each week over each of the 41 draws, not 3.2 million/41

caseyann wrote: »

I remember one of my professors doing the odds on winning the jackpot in the lotto.They were astronomical.Basically he said that you had better chance of dying
I only play lotto once in blue moon my odds of winning i therefore play them.:p

I used to buy all cash and i won so many times on them,since recession kicked in i have not won a penny on them.That says something.They arent putting as many out with winners on them as they did.

Your chance of dying is 100%, so yes, obviously greater.

seamus · 26-11-2010 10:39pm

The-Rigger wrote: »

It's 1 in 3.2 million each week over each of the 41 draws, not 3.2 million/41

While you're correct in terms of a single draw, there's a cumulative effect when you take multiple exclusive draws into account.

But my maths is wrong, and here's why:
If I was to buy 3.2 million lines this week, the probability of winning is 3.2m/3.2m, i.e. 1; I am definitely going to win.

But if I was to play it every Monday for the next 3.2m Mondays, I am *not* guaranteed to win it. The probably is not 1. That's obvious.

So what is the probability of winning over the 41 week timeframe? Well, it's not 1 in 3.2m, or at least at first glance that seems like the incorrect answer too - if you expand out the above example - there's no way that I could play 3.2m distinct times and the odds of winning at least once would remain astronomical.

If we look at the probability of *not* winning over those 41 weeks:
That's 3,199,999^41/3,200,000^41 or 0.999987187 - i.e. so likely it's almost a certainty. The opposite of this, is the odds of winning in that timeframe - 0.000012813. This is roughly 1 in 78,000.

But I've already shown that my maths is wrong. So I must be missing a formula or a piece of logic here.

caseyann · 26-11-2010 11:12pm

The-Rigger wrote: »

Your chance of dying is 100%, so yes, obviously greater.

By accident or not to hopeful life expectancy :P

odhuill · 26-11-2010 11:31pm

i did the quick pick on two different tickets and 4 of the 6 numbers were the same

Carra23 · 27-11-2010 1:06am

odhuill wrote: »

i did the quick pick on two different tickets and 4 of the 6 numbers were the same

and it will be like that every time you do a quick pick

king dice · 14-12-2010 9:37pm

Does any one know the best day to post three stars in,to give you the best odds of being picked.

Sacksian · 14-12-2010 9:49pm

king dice wrote: »

Does any one know the best day to post three stars in,to give you the best odds of being picked.

Tuesday.

Tuesday mornings, specifically.

Mc Love · 10-03-2011 11:43am

Its definitely fixed - just wait and see - it will be won on Paddys weekend!

F**king joke!

Carra23 · 10-03-2011 3:21pm

Mc Love wrote: »

Its definitely fixed - just wait and see - it will be won on Paddys weekend!

F**king joke![/QUOT

Good shout. See what odds Paddy Power will give on the lotto rolling over till Paddys day and then being won that weekend !

MASTER...of the bra · 11-03-2011 2:27am

Mc Love wrote: »

Its definitely fixed - just wait and see - it will be won on Paddys weekend!

F**king joke!

I'm starting to believe this thread:eek:.

Mc Love · 12-03-2011 3:09am

I think I might carra

scudzilla · 19-03-2011 12:38am

Mc Love wrote: »

Its definitely fixed - just wait and see - it will be won on Paddys weekend!

F**king joke!

This is beginnin to smell fishier than a hookers crack

amacachi · 20-03-2011 12:15am

Not this time.

seamus · 20-03-2011 1:20pm

So now that the assertion that big lotto winners are always around bank holiday/important weekends has been conclusively shown to be false, can we finally put this "fixed lotto" nonsense to bed?

Carra23 · 21-03-2011 1:41pm

seamus wrote: »

So now that the assertion that big lotto winners are always around bank holiday/important weekends has been conclusively shown to be false, can we finally put this "fixed lotto" nonsense to bed?

Maybe 'they' have been reading this thread and decided best not to let it be won Paddys weekend as the game would be up ! I think ' they ' might let some one win it this weekend and then have a few weeks rolling over up to the May bank holiday...........:)

Jesus Wept · 22-03-2011 7:50am

seamus wrote: »

So now that the assertion that big lotto winners are always around bank holiday/important weekends has been conclusively shown to be false, can we finally put this "fixed lotto" nonsense to bed?

Of course not, it can still be fixed.

caseyann · 22-03-2011 8:09pm

seamus wrote: »

So now that the assertion that big lotto winners are always around bank holiday/important weekends has been conclusively shown to be false, can we finally put this "fixed lotto" nonsense to bed?

Before this thread the likely hood of a big win on a holiday,and it not being won for weeks before the holiday was more likely than not.
I believe it is to increase buying of the lotto and they make four times maybe more of what they give out.;)

An Ri rua · 23-03-2011 9:23pm

Like any system, such as political bribes etc, the moneypath is never straightforward.

If you look to scratchcards, there is ample room for malign activity. For instance, sending higher-odds batches to certain outlets to either bolster flagging sales or to feed growing sales. Not likely? This is exactly what a French businessman proved and the french lottery settled out of court !!
The French lottery was clearly shown to have 'gamed' the scratchcard distribution in order to better the results for marketing purposes. See [URL="The French lottery was clearly shown to have 'gamed' the scratchcard distribution in order to better the results for marketing purposes. See http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...icle671085.ece"]http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...icle671085.ece[/URL]

With the draws therefore, if where the prize is won can be decided, then yes, this is VERY good for marketing exec who are trying to drive revenue growth in some regions and maintain it in others. Can it be done? There's always a way!
Are KPMG reputable? Of course they are, in as much as any of us are. What bank, what church, what professional adviser is reputable these days? Where there is money to be made, money will be made.

Thank God there's a big Garda standing over proceedings. They're the poet/warriors of Ireland, unflinching in the face of corruptability.

GoldenBoot · 25-03-2011 7:28pm

your mate is going to have to be 'silenced'.

good logs... · 31-03-2011 9:15pm

the only way it could be fixed is the quick pick.. the same quick pick numbers been givein out all round the country....:eek:

The lotterys fixed?

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