Is 2 euro a litre going to matter?

manwithaplan wrote: »

I suspect the 'per million km travelled' figures still show positive trends year-on-year in Ireland. Over 600 people were killed in some years in the 70s when usage was way below what it is now and the numbers killed did not rise in the 90s and the first half of the noughties when car ownership and use exploded.

Is that not essentially Smeed's Law?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smeed%27s_law
EDIT: Didn't see galwaycyclist's similar post.

galwaycyclist wrote: »

There has been a significant fall in road deaths which suggests the roads may be becoming a progressively safer cycling environment.

There is a direct relationship between indicators like fuel prices or unemployment rates and levels of road deaths.

It gets missed because the RSA and Garda like to claim credit and our national media aren't minded to rock the boat by asking awkward questions.

Interestingly, the recession was invoked to explain the fall in road deaths in Dublin city centre, partly to dismiss the possibility that the 30 zone had had an effect.

To be fair, it was the AA doing the dismissing, rather than the RSA. And again, to be fair, I don't know whether the 30 zone did have that large an effect. The 5-axle band seems more important to me, given the lack of enforcement of the 30 zone, much as I like the 30 zone.

Actually I suspect that even among cycling enthusiasts the bicycle isn't seen as all that it could be. How many people here, for example, would willingly give up their car(s) in favour of relying entirely on their bike(s) (plus public transport where necessary)?

I know that I'd be reluctant to make that choice. I only learned to drive in my mid 30's and I've had a car since then. Up to that point I commuted everywhere by bike, I shopped by bike, holidays were often by bike, etc. Being so dependent on a bike at that age made it hard for people to categorise me - I'd long since stopped being a student, and it wasn't that I couldn't afford a car, so hippy seemed to be the only category I could be slotted into. Since I bought a car I can harp on about how much more practical it is to, for example, do the weekly shopping by car - there's no denying it's easier, but in actual fact if I were to add a trailer to the bike then it would be perfectly feasible to so the same amount of shopping by bike instead. I reckon that a lot of us are clearly happy being cycling hippies, but cycling-with-a-trailer hippy-ism is perhaps a kaftan too far

I'd consider myself very open to the idea of cycling being a core part of daily life, and it is indeed a very important part of my family's life (my wife and I both commute by bike, we have a child trailer, my daughter already has a mini fleet of bikes , etc.), but despite my dim view of motoring culture I can't deny that I've bought into it too to a certain extent. So while I can look at people who commute by car and wonder how they can possibly make that choice where cycling is a viable alternative, I reckon I should also challenge my own perception that I need my car in other situations.

Living a life entirely without a car is really a topic for another discussion but it might perhaps identify misconceptions, prejudice even, even on the part of some of those of us who consider commuting by bicycle to be the logical choice. And those same misconceptions may be at the heart of the dim view of cycling held by many people - maybe trying to explore our own misconceptions would help us understand the misconceptions of others, which may ultimately help us to find ways of addressing that negative view of cycling held by what seems to be a lot of people. Before we know it maybe we'll have convinced a lot of people of the benefits of cycling, and then we'll just have to figure out how to accommodate the increased numbers of fellow cyclists on the roads!

...whew, after such a hippy post I feel the need to go and wax my moustache, man.

doozerie wrote: »

I reckon that a lot of us are clearly happy being cycling hippies, but cycling-with-a-trailer hippy-ism is perhaps a kaftan too far

I have sunk that low.



It may be down to being, shall we say, "careful with money", as Elaine Benes describe George Costanza. I would go to considerable physical effort to save several grand a year. Actually, I also enjoy physical effort more than most, I think.

I also don't enjoy driving, so renting cars a few times a year suits me fine. I know that most people do enjoy driving, at least in some scenarios. I'd rather not in just about every scenario.

manwithaplan wrote: »

Does Smeed's law have no application in reverse? It appears inconsistent to me to talk about fuel prices and unemployment rates (essentially proxies for lower usage) as being the key explanation for reductions in road deaths while discounting higher usage being responsible, all other things being equal, for increases.

I think the lower number of HGVs in a recession may be germane.

I also have a feeling that Smeed's Rule of Thumb might have been a better name.

EDIT: the apparent paradox is discussed here.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056306431&page=4
I have no expertise, and have nothing to add.

tomasrojo wrote:

Mind you, that was years ago. I think cycling is a little more, eh, fashionable now.

I do think there is an element of cycling being fashionable at the moment, which possibly doesn't do it any favours as fashions are so transitory and seen as being a bit whimsical. I wonder how many people basically see cycling as something that people dabble in until they find some other distraction. Slightly derisory phrases like "Middle Aged Men In Lycra", which paints a picture of deluded men exploring something that is somehow comical or unsuitable, seem to have become part of the standard vocabulary of some media commentators when talking about cycling.

I'm not sure what is needed in order for cycling to be taken "seriously", to the extent that, for example, people stop staring in wonderment at the likes of a child trailer attached to the back of a bicycle, but we seem a long way off from that yet.

Similarly, my wife has had several people say very positive things about our child trailer when she has been towing it, and I've encountered such reactions myself too on occasion. The general response has been that child trailers are great things, but on the other hand some of those same people have said that they wouldn't use one themselves despite seeing the clear benefits.

Surprisingly, some elderly women have told my wife that they wished child trailers had existed in their day. I guess it's easy to assume that the older generation are more conservative but it's clearly not always the case.

tomasrojo wrote: »

I have sunk that low.

doozerie wrote: »

Incidentally, some individuals at client sites saw my cycling as being a positive thing but their corporate culture didn't so even if they themselves saw it as a viable alternative for themselves their employer essentially seemed to discourage it. Image, apparently, is more important than many other factors. In my current job the philosophy is very different and many people commute by bike, but in my experience this is the exception.

I used to work for a crowd that seemed to go out of their way to give me hassle about cycling to work. Well maybe not the cycling to work, but the locking of my bike outside my place of work. I would do some night shift work and whenever we be on of an evening the underground carpark would be shut before we got in. Okay, so I tie the bike to a railing out side the office. My co-workers who drove cars would be in a similar situation and they would park in a visitor spot outside the front door of the building.

So far so good, but one day they start 'clamping' my bike with a u-lock, so I stagger out of the building after an 11 or 12 hour nightshift to see my bike stuck.

Many arguments ensued. The car drivers could park wherever the hell they liked because 'where else could they park, they've got a car?' and I got clamped every bloody morning. I'd end up having the same stupid conversation with the same grinning security goon every day I did the night shift. I was causing a serious blockage apparently (locking the bike to a decorative railing in nobodies way). I did have it clarified to me that if I could park in the visitor bays outside the front door in a car shaped and sized cardboard box that would be fine, just don't lock to the railing.

They felt that a lone cyclist was 'weird' enough to victimise in this way. Very disappointing.

€2 a ltr will be a pain in the ass, im living in an area were there`s no public transport, nearest train station is 10klm away, its a 30 odd klm commute to work each way, when i drive with a light foot on the acceleration it costs me avg €8 a day(,i drive leave the car an cycle the last 5klm) cann`t sell the car cause the way market is i wont get anything for it,

id love to do that but you cannt bring your bike on in rush hour,