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Second Annual Winter Forecast Contest

13»

Comments

  • #102
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Here's an update on the winter forecast contest scoring, with January IMT and precip added in. Strasser continues to lead with 28.5 out of a possible 30 points. Met-E very very interested or should be.

    Forecaster .. DEC IMT . DEC PRC . JAN IMT . JAN PRC . MAX WIND GUST . POINTS SO FAR
    ___________________________________________________________

    Strasser.......... 5.0 ..... 5.0 ..... 4.0 ..... 4.5 ..... 10 ........... 28.5
    traecy1 .......... 4.5 ..... 2.5 ..... 4.0 ..... 4.5 ..... 8 ........... 23.5
    nilhg .............. 4.5 ..... 3.5 ..... 5.0 ..... 2.0 ..... 8 ............ 23.0
    Joe Public ....... 5.0 ..... 3.5 ..... 1.5 ..... 2.5 ..... 8 ........... 20.5

    Con Sensus .... 2.5 ..... 3.5 ..... 2.5 ..... 5.0 ..... 7 ............. 20.5

    M.T. Cranium ... 3.0 ..... 5.0 ..... 0.5 ..... 2.5 ..... 9 ........... 20.0
    MiNdGaM3 ....... 4.5 ..... 2.5 ..... 2.0 ..... 3.0 ..... 8 ............ 20.0
    NIALL D .......... 1.5 ..... 5.0 ..... 2.0 ..... 3.5 ..... 7 ........... 19.0
    John mac ........ 3.5 ..... 3.0 ..... 4.5 ..... 3.0 ..... 5 ............ 19.0
    WolfeIRE ......... 2.0 ..... 3.5 ..... 2.5 ..... 4.0 ..... 7 ............ 19.0
    Harps ............. 1.5 ..... 5.0 ..... 2.5 ..... 1.5 ..... 8 ............ 18.5
    eskimocat ....... 3.5 ..... 3.5 ..... 3.5 ..... 0.5 ..... 7 ............ 18.0
    nacho libre ...... 2.5 ..... 1.0 ..... 3.5 ..... 1.0 .... 10 ............ 18.0
    Sponge Bob ..... 4.0 ..... 3.5 ..... 5.0 ..... 4.5 ..... 1 ............ 18.0
    karl tyrrell ....... 0.0 ..... 1.0 ..... 3.0 ..... 5.0 ..... 9 ............ 18.0
    Su Campu ....... 3.5 ..... 3.5 ..... 4.5 ...... 5.0 ..... 1 ........... 17.5
    scary ............. 0.5 ..... 3.0 ..... 2.0 ..... 4.5 ..... 7 ............ 17.0
    Deep Easterly . 2.0 ..... 0.0 ..... 5.0 ..... 0.0 ..... 10 ........... 17.0
    pauldry .......... 3.0 ..... 1.0 ..... 3.0 ..... 5.0 ..... 4 ............ 16.0
    kindredspirit .... 4.0 ..... 5.0 ..... 2.0 ..... 1.0 ..... 4 ............ 16.0
    BLIZZARD7 ...... 2.0 ..... 3.0 ..... 0.0 ..... 0.5 ..... 10 .......... 15.5
    talkabout ....... 5.0 ..... 2.5 ..... 3.0 ..... 4.0 ..... 1 ............ 15.5
    Wild Bill ......... 4.0 ..... 3.5 ..... 4.0 ..... 4.0 ..... 0 ............. 15.5
    baraca .......... 0.0 ..... 2.5 ..... 1.0 ..... 1.5 ..... 10 ........... 15.0
    flying11 ......... 2.5 ..... 4.0 ..... 3.0 ..... 1.0 ..... 4 ............ 14.5
    snowstreams ... 3.5 ..... 4.0 ..... 1.5 ..... 3.5 ..... 2 ........... 14.5
    Danno*........... 5.0 ..... 0.0 ..... 2.0 ..... 3.5 ..... 4 ............ 14.5
    oterra ........... 1.0 ..... 0.5 ..... 5.0 ...... 3.0 ..... 5 ............ 14.5
    bb1234567*..... 1.0 ..... 5.0 ..... 0.0 ..... 0.0 ..... 8 ............ 14.0
    Rebelbrowser ... 0.5 ..... 2.5 ..... 1.5 ..... 2.5 ..... 7 ............ 14.0
    Mmcd ............ 0.0 ..... 1.0 ..... 1.0 ..... 1.5 .... 10 ............ 13.5
    200motels ...... 4.5 ..... 0.5 ..... 4.0 ..... 0.5 ..... 4 ............. 13.5
    Iancar29 ........ 4.5 ..... 2.0 ..... 3.5 ..... 1.5 ..... 2 ............. 13.5
    dsmythy ........ 3.5 ..... 4.5 ..... 4.5 ..... 1.0 ..... 0 ............ 13.5
    okla .............. 2.0 ..... 2.0 ..... 2.5 ..... 3.0 ..... 4 ............. 13.5
    waterways ..... 4.0 ..... 0.0 ..... 4.0 ..... 2.5 ..... 3 ............. 13.5
    homolumo ...... 2.0 ..... 5.0 ..... 1.0 ..... 3.5 ..... 2 ............. 13.5
    cdev ............. 0.5 ..... 2.0 ..... 0.0 ..... 3.5 ..... 7 ............. 13.0
    H2UMrsRobinson 0.5 .... 1.5 ..... 0.5 ..... 5.0 ..... 5 ............. 12.5
    jdee99 .......... 3.5 ..... 4.0 ..... 1.0 ..... 2.0 ..... 1 ............. 11.5
    Rougies ......... 1.0 ..... 4.0 ..... 0.5 ..... 3.0 ..... 1 ............... 9.5
    thetonynator... 0.5 ..... 2.0 ..... 0.0 ..... 2.0 ..... 5 .............. 9.5
    Elmer Blooker .. 1.5 ..... 0.5 ..... 5.0 ..... 0.0 ..... 2 .............. 9.0
    redsunset ...... 0.0 ..... 0.5 ..... 0.0 ..... 4.0 ..... 4 .............. 8.5


    Notes: Scoring rules were discussed earlier, basically it's by rank order and ties affect how many score. The wind gust max scores can only change slightly no matter how much higher than 90 kts we go, because there are only three contestants above 90, two of them could improve at the expense of two around 82 kts, everyone else is locked into their scores.


  • #103
    Strasser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 240 ✭✭Strasser


    Hi, I’m generally a lurker rather than a contributor here and love the weather forum, thanks to all those that make it so interesting, esp. the Mods and of course MT. As I’m in the lead I thought I should say something. Like most of us in here I’m a cold lover, bitterly disappointed this Sibernian high isn’t set to deliver any snow. Only hope remaining now is for a Scandi high to build.
    No secrets or methods in my forecasting skills just an interested amateur observer. I’ve been around a while; I remember the various 80’s snow events with fondness but then lived through the agonies of the many “modern winters” since. Therefore I realised the two most recent cold winters were really the exceptions. I didn’t buy into this view that was around last autumn that we were set for another cold winter, teleconnectics, stratosphere etc were not like in the previous 2 years. Therefore I plumbed for a mild Atlantic dominant winter and unfortunately I was correct, hence my good performance. I went for a mild February as well but I really hope I’m wrong!!


  • #104
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    At this point, with no measured snow yet at Casement, it would take a total seasonal snowfall of greater than 7.5 cms to change the provisional scores that I have added here for snowfall. The four lowest predictions will continue to take the top scores (10 pts) for any snowfalls that fail to exceed 7.5 cms ... until the end of the contest period on 15 April.

    Otherwise, watch for some major updates after 1st of March when the February values and the seasonal values are determined. The seasonal maximum will also be definitely known then (seems likely to be established this coming week), but the seasonal minimum remains open to adjustment through 15 April (as per the rules). Max gust scores can change slightly for a few entrants if 90 kts is surpassed now to 29th Feb. (not very likely)

    Forecaster . DEC IMT/ PRC . JAN IMT/PRC . MAX GUST . SNOW ... POINTS SO FAR
    ___________________________________________________________

    Strasser.......... 5.0 ... 5.0 ... 4.0 ... 4.5 .. 10 ... 6 ........ 34.5
    traecy1 .......... 4.5 ... 2.5 ... 4.0 ... 4.5 ... 8 .. 10 ........ 33.5
    nilhg .............. 4.5 ... 3.5 ... 5.0 ... 2.0 ... 8 ... 9 ......... 32.0
    John mac ....... 3.5 ... 3.0 ... 4.5 ... 3.0 ... 5 .. 10 ......... 29.0
    Sponge Bob .... 4.0 ... 3.5 ... 5.0 ... 4.5 ... 1 .. 10 ........ 28.0
    Joe Public ....... 5.0 ... 3.5 ... 1.5 ... 2.5 ... 8 ... 6 ......... 26.5
    Harps ............. 1.5 ... 5.0 ... 2.5 ... 1.5 ... 8 ... 8 ......... 26.5
    Su Campu ....... 3.5 ... 3.5 ... 4.5 ... 5.0 ... 1 ... 9 ......... 26.5
    Wild Bill .......... 4.0 ... 3.5 ... 4.0 ... 4.0 ... 0 ... 9 .......... 24.5

    Con Sensus .... 2.5 ... 3.5 ... 2.5 ... 5.0 ... 7 ... 4 .......... 24.5

    scary ............. 0.5 ... 3.0 ... 2.0 ... 4.5 ... 7 ... 7 ......... 24.0
    eskimocat ....... 3.5 ... 3.5 ... 3.5 ... 0.5 ... 7 ... 6 ......... 24.0
    WolfeIRE ......... 2.0 ... 3.5 ... 2.5 ... 4.0 ... 7 ... 5 ......... 24.0
    pauldry .......... 3.0 ... 1.0 ... 3.0 ... 5.0 ... 4 ... 8 .......... 24.0
    talkabout ....... 5.0 ... 2.5 ... 3.0 ... 4.0 ... 1 ... 8 .......... 23.5
    MiNdGaM3 ....... 4.5 ... 2.5 ... 2.0 ... 3.0 ... 8 ... 3 ......... 23.0
    nacho libre ...... 2.5 ... 1.0 ... 3.5 ... 1.0 .. 10 ... 5 ........ 23.0
    homolumo ....... 2.0 ... 5.0 ... 1.0 ... 3.5 ... 2 ... 9 ......... 22.5
    200motels ...... 4.5 ... 0.5 ... 4.0 ... 0.5 ... 4 ... 9 .......... 22.5
    M.T. Cranium ... 3.0 ... 5.0 ... 0.5 ... 2.5 ... 9 ... 2 ......... 22.0
    NIALL D .......... 1.5 ... 5.0 ... 2.0 ... 3.5 ... 7 ... 3 ......... 22.0
    dsmythy ........ 3.5 ... 4.5 ... 4.5 ... 1.0 ... 0 ... 8 .......... 21.5
    Danno*........... 5.0 ... 0.0 ... 2.0 ... 3.5 ... 4 ... 7 ......... 21.5
    kindredspirit .... 4.0 ... 5.0 ... 2.0 ... 1.0 ... 4 ... 5 ......... 21.0
    Mmcd ............ 0.0 ... 1.0 ... 1.0 ... 1.5 .. 10 ... 7 ......... 20.5
    Deep Easterly .. 2.0 ... 0.0 ... 5.0 ... 0.0 .. 10 ... 3 ........ 20.0
    Iancar29 ........ 4.5 ... 2.0 ... 3.5 ... 1.5 ... 2 ... 6 .......... 19.5
    jdee99 .......... 3.5 ... 4.0 ... 1.0 ... 2.0 ... 1 ... 8 ........... 19.5
    Elmer Blooker .. 1.5 ... 0.5 ... 5.0 ... 0.0 ... 2 .. 10 ......... 19.0
    karl tyrrell ....... 0.0 ... 1.0 ... 3.0 ... 5.0 ... 9 ... 1 ......... 19.0
    oterra ............ 1.0 ... 0.5 ... 5.0 ... 3.0 ... 5 ... 4 ......... 18.5
    Rebelbrowser ... 0.5 ... 2.5 ... 1.5 ... 2.5 ... 7 ... 4 ......... 18.0
    flying11 ......... 2.5 ... 4.0 ... 3.0 ... 1.0 ... 4 ... 3 .......... 17.5
    snowstreams ... 3.5 ... 4.0 ... 1.5 ... 3.5 ... 2 ... 3 ......... 17.5
    H2UMrsRobinson 0.5 ... 1.5 ... 0.5 ... 5.0 ... 5 ... 5 ......... 17.5
    okla ............... 2.0 ... 2.0 ... 2.5 ... 3.0 ... 4 ... 4 .......... 17.5
    waterways ..... 4.0 ... 0.0 ... 4.0 ... 2.5 ... 3 ... 3 .......... 16.5
    baraca ........... 0.0 ... 2.5 ... 1.0 ... 1.5 .. 10 ... 1 ......... 16.0
    BLIZZARD7 ..... 2.0 ... 3.0 ... 0.0 ... 0.5 .. 10 ... 0 .......... 15.5
    bb1234567*..... 1.0 ... 5.0 ... 0.0 ... 0.0 ... 8 ... 1 .......... 15.0
    cdev ............. 0.5 ... 2.0 ... 0.0 ... 3.5 ... 7 ... 1 ........... 14.0
    thetonynator... 0.5 ... 2.0 ... 0.0 ... 2.0 ... 5 ... 5 ........... 14.5
    Rougies ......... 1.0 ... 4.0 ... 0.5 ... 3.0 ... 1 ... 2 ........... 11.5
    redsunset ...... 0.0 ... 0.5 ... 0.0 ... 4.0 ... 4 ... 0 ............ 8.5


  • #105
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    I'm sticking like a leech to Mr Con Sensus! :D


  • #106
    Joe Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,783 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    I'm thinking of changing my username to Con Census, wouln't it get me in with a fair chance every competition without going through a sh1t load of formulas and mathematical modelling.:D


  • #107
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    sometimes the more you know Joe the worse it goes


  • #108
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Februrary data are now official and they are:

    IMT 7.1 C

    prc 62% of normal

    These give us the seasonal averages of

    IMT 6.5 C

    prc 89% of normal

    The lowest temperature of the month is so far the lowest of the season ... at -6.3 C (Mullingar, 2nd). By the rules, any lower temperature before 15 April will count so this may not be a finished category. Also, no measured snowfall at Casement yet, but same time scale as above.

    The highest temperature in the Monthly Summary was 15.0 C at Phoenix Park. An earlier report of 15.5 C at Moore Park is not confirmed. By the rules we must take the 15.0 as our contest value ... and that period is closed.

    I will update the scoring as a preliminary final score after handling the monthly (February) contest scoring. This may mean some time tomorrow for a report on the scoring.


  • #109
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Provisional final scoring for the winter forecast contest
    _______________________________________________________

    Seasonal minimum temperature (now -6.3 C), Casement snowfall (now at zero cms) are subject to change until the deadline of 15 April. The snowfall can reach 7.5 cms before any scores will change. These scores will be confirmed or adjusted as necessary on 15 April with the winner announced at that time.

    Forecaster . IMT (DJF - s) ........ PRC (DJF - s) ........... MAX . MIN . GUST . SNOW .... POINTS
    ________________________________________________________________________________

    max points..... 5 ... 5 ... 5 ... 15 ...... 5 ... 5 ... 5 ..... 15 .... 10 . 10 .. 10 . 10 ... 100

    traecy1 ........ 4.5 . 4.0 . 2.0 .. 11 .. 2.5 . 4.5 . 4.5 .. 08 .... 10 .. 10 .. 8 .. 10 ... 79.0

    nilhg ............ 4.5 . 5.0 . 4.0 .. 15 .. 3.5 . 2.0 . 1.0 .. 04 .... 08 .. 09 .. 8 ... 9 ... 73.0
    Strasser........ 5.0 . 4.0 . 5.0 .. 14 .. 5.0 . 4.5 . 1.5 .. 06 .... 02 .. 09 .. 10 .. 6 .. 72.0
    Sponge Bob ... 4.0 . 5.0 . 3.0 .. 13 .. 3.5 . 4.5 . 2.5 .. 11 .... 09 .. 05 .. 1 .. 10 .. 71.5
    eskimocat ..... 3.5 . 3.5 . 4.0 .. 12 .. 3.5 . 0.5 . 4.0 .. 12 .... 05 .. 09 .. 7 .. 6 ... 70.0
    John mac ..... 3.5 . 4.5 . 2.5 .. 13 .. 3.0 . 3.0 . 3.0 .. 09 .... 06 .. 07 ... 5 .. 10 .. 69.5
    Wild Bill ........ 4.0 . 4.0 . 2.5 .. 11 .. 3.5 . 4.0 . 4.5 .. 12 .... 04 .. 10 .. 0 ... 9 .... 68.5
    kindredspirit . 4.0 . 2.0 . 3.5 .. 10 .. 5.0 . 1.0 . 3.0 .. 15 .... 06 .. 10 .. 4 ... 5 .... 68.5
    homolumo .... 2.0 . 1.0 . 4.5 .. 08 .. 5.0 . 3.5 . 5.0 .. 15 .... 08 .. 03 .. 2 ... 9 ... 66.0
    Harps ........... 1.5 . 2.5 . 2.5 .. 09 .. 5.0 . 1.5 . 1.0 .. 08 .... 09 .. 08 .. 8 ... 8 ... 64.0
    Joe Public ..... 5.0 . 1.5 . 0.5 .. 06 .. 3.5 . 2.5 . 5.0 .. 14 .... 06 .. 04 .. 8 ... 6 ... 62.0

    Con Sensus .. 2.5 . 2.5 . 2.0 .. 09 .. 3.5 . 5.0 . 2.5 .. 10 .... 10 .. 04 .. 7 ... 4 .... 62.0

    Su Campu ..... 3.5 . 4.5 . 3.5 .. 13 .. 3.5 . 5.0 . 1.5 .. 07 .... 03 .. 07 .. 1 ... 9 .. 61.5
    dsmythy ....... 3.5 . 4.5 . 4.0 .. 13 .. 4.5 . 1.0 . 0.0 .. 06 .... 09 .. 08 .. 0 ... 8 ... 61.5
    scary ........... 0.5 . 2.0 . 3.0 .. 06 .. 3.0 . 4.5 . 4.0 .. 12 .... 07 .. 05 .. 7 ... 7 ... 61.0
    M.T. Cranium 3.0 . 0.5 . 5.0 .. 09 .. 5.0 . 2.5 . 5.0 .. 15 .... 05 ... 00 .. 9 ... 2 ... 61.0
    talkabout ..... 5.0 . 3.0 . 1.0 .. 09 .. 2.5 . 4.0 . 2.0 .. 09 .... 09 .. 07 .. 1 ... 8 .... 60.5
    nacho libre ... 2.5 . 3.5 . 5.0 .. 12 .. 1.0 . 1.0 . 2.0 .. 06 .... 06 .. 05 .. 10 .. 5 ... 59.0
    pauldry ........ 3.0 . 3.0 . 5.0 .. 14 .. 1.0 . 5.0 . 2.5 .. 04 .... 01 .. 08 .. 4 ... 8 .... 58.5
    MiNdGaM3 .... 4.5 . 2.0 . 4.0 .. 10 .. 2.5 . 3.0 . 1.0 .. 05 .... 04 .. 08 .. 8 ... 3 ... 55.0
    okla ............ 2.0 . 2.5 . 1.5 .. 08 .. 2.0 . 3.0 . 4.5 .. 13 .... 08 .. 06 .. 4 ... 4 ... 58.5
    Elmer Blooker. 1.5 . 5.0 . 4.0 .. 15 .. 0.5 . 0.0 . 1.0 .. 03 .... 06 .. 09 .. 2 .. 10 ... 57.0
    flying11 ....... 2.5 . 3.0 . 2.0 .. 09 .. 4.0 . 1.0 . 4.0 .. 15 .... 02 .. 07 .. 4 ... 3 ... 56.5
    oterra ......... 1.0 . 5.0 . 4.5 .. 15 .. 0.5 . 3.0 . 1.0 .. 08 .... 04 .. 04 .. 5 ... 4 ... 55.0
    Danno*........ 5.0 . 2.0 . 1.0 .. 09 .. 0.0 . 3.5 . 5.0 .. 11 .... 01 .. 06 .. 4 .. 7 .... 54.5
    200motels .... 4.5 . 4.0 . 5.0 .. 14 .. 0.5 . 0.5 . 0.5 .. 02 .... 03 .. 06 .. 4 ... 9 ... 53.0
    WolfeIRE ...... 2.0 . 2.5 . 1.5 .. 08 .. 3.5 . 4.0 . 3.0 .. 05 .... 10 .. 01 .. 7 ... 5 ... 52.5
    NIALL D ....... 1.5 . 2.0 . 0.5 .. 04 .. 5.0 . 3.5 . 2.0 .. 10 .... 10 .. 04 .. 7 ... 3 ... 52.5
    thetonynator. 0.5 . 0.0 . 2.5 .. 3.0 .. 2.0 . 2.0 . 3.0 .. 14 .... 05 .. 10 .. 5 ... 5 ... 52.0
    Iancar29 ...... 4.5 . 3.5 . 2.0 .. 12 .. 2.0 . 1.5 . 4.0 .. 10 .... 01 .. 03 .. 2 ... 6 .... 51.5
    H2UMrsRob'n . 0.5 . 0.5 . 1.5 .. 10 .. 1.5 . 5.0 . 2.0 .. 10 .... 07 .. 02 .. 5 ... 5 .. 50.0
    Mmcd ......... 0.0 . 1.0 . 3.0 .. 03 .. 1.0 . 1.5 . 1.0 .. 13 .... 06 .. 03 .. 10 ... 7 ... 49.5
    Rebelbrowser. 0.5 . 1.5 . 4.0 .. 06 .. 2.5 . 2.5 . 0.5 .. 10 .... 04 .. 05 .. 7 ... 4 ... 47.5
    baraca ........ 0.0 . 1.0 . 1.0 .. 02 .. 2.5 . 1.5 . 3.5 .. 12 .... 10 .. 03 .. 10 ... 1 ... 47.5
    Rougies ....... 1.0 . 0.5 . 4.5 .. 04 .. 4.0 . 3.0 . 4.0 .. 15 .... 06 .. 02 .. 1 ... 2 .... 47.0
    snowstreams. 3.5 . 1.5 . 1.0 .. 04 .. 4.0 . 3.5 . 3.0 .. 12 .... 03 .. 06 .. 2 ... 3 .... 46.5
    karl tyrrell .... 0.0 . 3.0 . 4.0 .. 06 .. 1.0 . 5.0 . 0.0 .. 04 .... 10 .. 00 .. 9 ... 1 ... 43.0
    Deep Easterly 2.0 . 5.0 . 0.0 .. 07 .. 0.0 . 0.0 . 3.5 .. 01 .... 06 .. 05 .. 10 .. 3 ... 42.5
    bb1234567*.. 1.0 . 0.0 . 3.5 .. 02 .. 5.0 . 0.0 . 0.0 .. 12 .... 09 .. 01 .. 8 ... 1 .... 42.5
    cdev ........... 0.5 . 0.0 . 1.5 .. 02 .. 2.0 . 3.5 . 1.5 .. 07 .... 08 .. 01 .. 7 ... 1 .... 35.0
    jdee99 ........ 3.5 . 1.0 . 0.5 .. 03 .. 4.0 . 2.0 . 3.5 .. 06 .... 00 .. 02 ... 1 ... 8 ..... 34.5
    waterways ... 4.0 . 4.0 . 0.0 .. 06 .. 0.0 . 2.5 . 4.5 .. 02 .... 03 .. 02 .. 3 ... 3 .... 34.0
    BLIZZARD7 ... 2.0 . 0.0 . 0.0 .. 01 .. 3.0 . 0.5 . 4.0 .. 04 .... 08 .. 00 .. 10 ... 0 .... 31.5
    redsunset .... 0.0 . 0.0 . 2.0 .. 01 .. 0.5 . 4.0 . 1.5 .. 13 .... 03 .. 00 ... 4 ... 0 ..... 28.0

    ______________________________________________

    Looking at predictions, the order of finish among the top three could theoretically change near the top if there is 20-30 cms of snow and a colder temperature than -7.5 C. This would give Strasser a chance to win. Nilhg is boxed in by his similar forecasts to leader traecy1 and appears to have no chance of overtaking the leader. For Sponge Bob in fourth place, his much colder (than top three contestants) prediction of -11.1 C would need to verify, without any heavy snowfalls, to have any chance.

    Anyone else is probably "mathematically eliminated" at this point.

    Please let me know if you find any errors in the totals. I checked the top half rather carefully.

    A final contest announcement will take place on 16 April so we'll hold off on any congratulations at present.


  • #110
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    The two big December storms were 8th and 13th Dec. Max 78Kt holds. The 91Kt biggie was 03 January I think.

    http://www.met.ie/climate/monthlyBulletins/dec11.pdf
    http://www.met.ie/climate/monthlyBulletins/dec11.pdf

    Looks like a late rather than mid April release date for the Jan Bulletin with Winter Bulletin included. Hopefully it won't magic up some Casement snow for Sponge Bob. :D


  • #111
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I've been watching the daily synops and there hasn't been any measurable snow this winter at Casement, contest amount remains "0.0" from traces. The contest is all but done and I can't see any signs in the model runs of conditions that would change the outcome. But will hold off to 16 April to declare a winner.


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  • #112
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    just a minimalist chance on Tuesday maybe MT. If April was December wed have snow.


  • #113
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Also note that we would need more than 7.6 cms of snow to change the scoring since we go by rank and not absolute error. So if 1-3 cms of snow happened to fall at Casement some day next week it would not change any scores. The minimum temperature would also have to fall below -7 C. That would seem very unlikely too. Another "by the way" the scoring is done on the basis of monthly summaries, I expect the later publications (monthly bulletins) to have essentially the same information compiled but if they changed something I would not be inclined to change the scoring on that basis since the rules stated "monthly summary" as scoring source where feasible, and for snowfall we have the daily data that so far has been largely superfluous.


  • #114
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Congratulations to traecy1 for winning the Second Annual Winter Forecast Contest. The points table remains unchanged from the provisional estimates given a few posts back in the thread. Nilhg was second, and Strasser finished third, followed closely by Sponge Bob and eskimocat.

    The only thing missing from our winter forecast contest was winter. Otherwise, thanks for taking part, and traecy1, look for a PM. :)


  • #115
    traecy1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 99 ✭✭traecy1


    Thank you very much MT Cranium for the time and effort you put into these competitions. Never expected to win anything so it was a pleasant surprise to see that I was at the top.


  • #116
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Congratulations Traecy, a clear winner on the end, spend your winnings wisely :D

    A top ten place for me, happy with that considering my consistently bad performance in the monthly comps. Beating Con Sensus is always a bonus as well!

    Thanks to MT goes without saying, great amount of effort as always


  • #117
    nilhg
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,160 ✭✭✭nilhg


    Well done to Traecy1 and many thanks to MT and all the others who give their time and experience to run these competitions.


    Roll on the sommer comp, I'm thinking it's going to be a scorcher (or maybe I'm in Fergie mode trying to psych the opposition out of it):D


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