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March 2012 Boards forecast contest

2

Comments

  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    A lot of high IMT's predicted for the month! Hope I'm not wrong, I forsee daytime temps for most of the month to struggle about 10-12 degrees :P

    Perhaps - but with nighttime temps of 5 degrees that's an ITM of 8C :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After seven days, these were the numbers ...

    IMT ... 6.8 C

    (min of -1.2 C)

    PRC 71% of normal

    SUN 173% of normal


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Yep....so far it's dry, sunny and mild. :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    -1.8 C at Dublin early on the 14th to set a new minimum so far.

    Will update the second week stats later today.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Sunshine % will have drooped a bit since a week ago :(


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Here is the update for week two ... and it was cloudy alright ...

    IMT ... now on 8.0 C after a week at 9.2 C.

    PRC 39% of normal after a dry week (6% of normal over the eleven stations)

    SUN 99% of normal after a dull week (25% of normal).

    The weather basically stopped happening for about five days, now it resumes a rather sluggish pace.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,421 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    whats the current max temp ?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    15.8c at Oak Park on the 9th, I think.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    I'd say Deep Easterly with 0.9 hours will score max points on Sunshine in Shannon tomorrow. :)


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    I'm sticking with my six hours, we've had 30 minutes already and it's getting better.

    And Limerick is much sunnier than Galway - everybody knows that :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    -2.1 at Mullingar (17th) is new lowest for month.

    3.2 hours sunshine at Shannon -- Strasser, John mac and DOCARCH were all right on the money with that, and traecy1 at 3.1h.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,421 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    might have gotten up to the 10 hours on 18th of February. It was gorgeous down in Clare the day after Paddy's! :D


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    might have gotten up to the 10 hours on 18th of February. It was gorgeous down in Clare the day after Paddy's! :D

    I don't think the sun is even above the horizon for over 10 hours on the 18th February :rolleyes:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Something I have been keeping an eye on for a while but it is look increasingly possible that the MSLP mean values for the January - March period this year will finish on a record high (or at least since 1950) in parts of the country.

    Although not complete as of yet, the combined mean sea level pressure value from 3 of the stations used in the IMT index (namely Shannon, Casement & Claremorris) for the Jan-March period this year so far is running at 1023.7 hPa :eek:.(1961-90 average for period is 1012.1 hPa) Although March isn't over yet, it is unlikely that this value will fall before the month is finished which would make it the highest mean value for January-March period period since 1953. A quick chart (whatever a quick chart is! :o) to put what I am trying to say into perspective:

    196980.png
    Data source: ECA&D

    By rights I should have included values from Mullingar & Oak Park in this to get a better scope of the IMT area but unfortunately historic MSLP values not publically available for these stations (also, data from Dublin Airport used from 1950 to 1963 as Casement data only dates back to 1964 but unlikely to affect overall values that much as mean monthly differences between both stations are negligible); but just going by the means of the 3 stations used, its looking like the first 3 months of 2012 will finish on a very high note MSLP wise with high pressure looking to remain close to Ireland for a good while yet:

    196986.png

    Who knows, maybe it will actually bring us some sunshine eventually..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,421 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Wild Bill wrote: »
    I don't think the sun is even above the horizon for over 10 hours on the 18th February :rolleyes:

    haha. nice :D


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Interesting pressure comparison to 1953, both winters featured one major windstorm in January also, a break from the mainly anticyclonic conditions.

    Another similarity exists on a larger scale, many stations in eastern North America are near record low snowfall totals for any winter, and some of these were set in 1952-53. That year continued very warm (in North America) and had an active tropical season.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Here's an update after the third week (15-21 March) ...

    IMT ... now on 7.8 C after a week at 7.4 C.

    PRC 48% of normal after a rather dry week (66% of normal over the eleven stations, Dublin was wetter but isn't one of the eleven stations used anyway.)

    SUN 86% of normal after a rather cloudy week (71% of normal, Belmullet had considerably more than all the rest).

    Trends ... IMT should come up gradually, PRC not likely to increase much, SUN could possibly begin to improve through next week.

    About the same as the overall anomalies for the winter season (which from the contest were about +1.5 temp and -11% PRC, can't recall sunshine in detail but seemed below average).


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    A New high was recorded yesterday. 16.4c. G'wan the Mullet. :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,708 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    A lot of high IMT's predicted for the month! Hope I'm not wrong, I forsee daytime temps for most of the month to struggle about 10-12 degrees :P

    How's that working out for you ;):p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,421 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    A New high was recorded yesterday. 16.4c. G'wan the Mullet. :)

    and I predicted 16.5 ;)


    Sadly thats gonna get blown out of the water this weekend. They predicting up to near 20.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    and I predicted 16.5 ;)


    Sadly thats gonna get blown out of the water this weekend. They predicting up to near 20.

    18.5 predicted here! :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    17.4C in Casement, highest temperature of the month so far.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    MiNdGaM3 wrote: »
    17.4C in Casement, highest temperature of the month so far.


    Snap! Identical max here in Sandyford.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    18.1c today in Finner I think max so far

    I predicted near this but not to worry it will be 19 or 20 Sunday which will prob be the max for the month.

    Reached 18.7c in Sligo today but we dont count.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    pauldry wrote: »
    18.1c today in Finner I think max so far

    I predicted near this but not to worry it will be 19 or 20 Sunday which will prob be the max for the month.

    Reached 18.7c in Sligo today but we dont count.

    Well if you go above 18.5 I hope not! ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    question for Deep Easterly..

    its currently 17c in Casement at midnight.(its 12c in Sligo)

    If the temperature does not go below say 11 in casement tonight it will mean a max of around 19 and min of 11 giving an average daily return of 15c!!!!!

    Is this a record for March, how unusual is it, when did it last happen?

    I know we have got near 21 or 22 in March before but between day and night what is the record?

    Also see the March record for Casement is 18.8c. Surely this will be broken


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    18c at casement already in the 11am. 18.3c in Mullingar was the new high yesterday with Casement and Finner showing 18.1c.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    pauldry wrote: »

    If the temperature does not go below say 11 in casement tonight it will mean a max of around 19 and min of 11 giving an average daily return of 15c!!!!!

    I have no idea about that :o but I reckon it would be up there alright although the mean temp at Casement yesterday was 11.1c (H 18.1c / L 7.0c). It is looking like the mean today will be higher though with 18c already being recorded at 11am.

    Highest recorded March temperature at Casement was 21.3c in 1964.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    19c in Casement in the 12 o clock, meaning 18.6-19.4 and a new high will be set today.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    think my high max temp prediction of 20.2C may already be broken today!


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Gonzo wrote: »
    think my high max temp prediction of 20.2C may already be broken today!

    OK - That puts me about 5th on the highest temp score! :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    i think your on the money gonzo

    it may touch 20c again tomorrow though.

    were any temperature records broken today locally or at met stations

    it got to 19.4c in sligo today.

    very few days last summer were this warm here


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,708 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Gonzo wrote: »
    think my high max temp prediction of 20.2C may already be broken today!

    Bang on the money for Finner, wonder will Phoenix park be used?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Nope. Climatic stations are not used...only these ones. 20.2 in Finner leads the month.

    http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    20.3 G'wan the Mullet


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,551 ✭✭✭SeaFields


    I need a 20.5 tomorrow. C'mon Ireland. You can do it!:D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Another new record if that's verified, previous high was 19.5C


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    20.4 for the Mullet according to the 9 o clock news. A new local record for March and all.

    That'll give you the month Seafield....no need for 22c or anything. :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,783 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    The Mullet is higher today and posting 22C on Met Eireann ATM.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    22c in the mullet!

    we wait a year for some good weather in the West and we get Summer in March.

    I think this will be a roasting year personally.:cool: Could be freezing either :D


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    22.2c in the Mullet today and even more to come tomorrow perhaps. But Seafilelds had the month in the bag yesterday.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 326 ✭✭K_1


    pauldry wrote: »
    22c in the mullet!

    we wait a year for some good weather in the West and we get Summer in March.

    I think this will be a roasting year personally.:cool: Could be freezing either :D

    3 months way above average, I'd be surprised to see it being cold on average! I think you're right, could potentially be record breaking for the year.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    not sure on exact figures but looks like this month will end up with an IMT of more than 8.6c


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Now for an update after the fourth week (22-28 March) ...

    IMT ... now on 8.5 C after a week at 10.5 C.

    PRC 38% of normal after a very dry week (8% of normal over the eleven stations, most were bone dry.)

    SUN 112% of normal after a sunny week (191% of normal, held back by Shannon's sub-160 reading).

    Looks like extensive use of the "minimum progression" scoring rule all over the contest this month, raw scores would be rather grim with these extreme values rolling in (sunshine on the other hand looks set to sink back towards 100% now, precip seems locked into a value below 50%).

    April contest is now open for your entries, bonus is max for Easter Sunday at Dublin.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly



    Although not complete as of yet, the combined mean sea level pressure value from 3 of the stations used in the IMT index (namely Shannon, Casement & Claremorris) for the Jan-March period this year so far is running at 1023.7 hPa :eek:.(1961-90 average for period is 1012.1 hPa)

    Up to today, the 3 station MSLP mean value is standing at 1024.5 hPa.This will make it the highest January-March mean value on record, beating the 1953 Jan-Mar mean value by just over 1.0 hPa. Will be interesting to see if this trend of anomalously high pressure values will continue over the next 3 months :)

    IMT singularities for the 3 month period January-March (based on 4 year period 2009-2012 and on midnight to midnight readings).

    Warmest day: 25th March - Mean = 9.75 °C
    Coldest Day: 7th January - Mean = 0.27 °C
    Wettest Day: 4th February - Mean = 8.06mm
    Driest Day: 28th March - Mean = 0.08mm

    Singularities are not based on any one year but when certain weather events are more likely to occur based on the average of a number of years. I have only been collecting daily data for 4 years which is not enough to get an overall overview of singularities in Ireland but should at least give an idea of recent trends at least. Some interesting singularities that were developed for the UK/European region here.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I will score March tomorrow when the final numbers are available, but already could say that Jerry Seinfeld seems to have done well. Pretty sure that the IMT will finish around 8.7 and that's above all predictions, same with the maximum (22.4 at least) and also the rainfall is below all predictions (but Jerry came closest at 70%). Have a look in Monday evening for the scoring and I may then start up an annual scoring thread.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Final figures for March:

    IMT 8.6 C

    max 22.2 (27th Belmullet)

    min -2.1 (17th Mullingar)

    prec 36% of normal :)

    sun 124% of normal

    bonus: 3.2 hrs sun on 17th

    scoring will appear in about an hour.

    (The sunshine data crept up above my estimates, could be faulty estimates on missing stations earlier, because the last three days seemed rather cloudy on the average).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Scoring for March contest

    Forecaster ............ IMT .. MAX .. MIN .. PRC .. SUN .. sun-17 .. TOTAL
    _______________________________________________________________

    Actual values............ 8.6 . 22.2 . -2.1 . 124 . 036 . 3.2

    K_1 ......................... 14 ... 14* . 19 ... 12* . 03 ... 09 ... 71
    SeaFields ................. 14 ... 18* . 19 ... 00 ... 01 ... 05 ... 57
    Jerry Seinfeld ............ 15 ... 12* . 02 ... 14* . 04 ... 08 ... 55
    Gonzo ...................... 12 ... 16* . 18 ... 00 ... 02 ... 07 ... 55
    rameire .................... 12 ... 05* . 15 ... 13* . 01 ... 07 ... 53
    waterways ............... 24 ... 02* . 14 ... 00 ... 05 ... 08 ... 53
    Strasser ................... 13 ... 00 ... 20 ... 04* . 05 ... 10 ... 52
    Sponge Bob .............. 21 ... 00 ... 10 ... 08* . 07 ... 04 ... 50
    jd ........................... 10 ... 05* . 19 ... 02* . 04 ... 07 ... 47
    pauldry .................... 20 ... 06* . 11 ... 00 ... 04 ... 04 ... 45
    Steopo .................... 05 ... 00 ... 13 ... 10* . 07 ... 09 ... 44
    kindredspirit .............. 18 ... 00 ... 11 ... 02* . 04 ... 04 ... 39
    H2UMrsRobinson ........ 07 ... 00 ... 17 ... 08* . 01 ... 05 ... 38
    mickger844posts ........ 00 ... 00 ... 09 ... 11* . 09 ... 09 ... 38
    lostinashford ............. 03 ... 11* . 16 ... 01* . 04 ... 02 ... 37
    Rebelbrowser* .......... 10 ... 00 ... 16 ... 00 ... 04 ... 06 ... 36
    alfa beta .................. 11 ... 00 ... 18 ... 00 ... 04 ... 01 ... 34
    nilhg ........................ 10 ... 00 ... 10 ... 00 ... 06 ... 07 ... 33
    traecy1 .................... 04 ... 00 ... 13 ... 00 ... 06 ... 10 ... 33
    Wild Bill .................... 10 ... 11* . 00 ... 07* . 03 ... 01 ... 32
    DOCARCH .................. 00 ... 00 ... 09 ... 09* . 04 ... 10 ... 32
    MiNdGaM3* ............... 09 ... 00 ... 11 ... 00 ... 03 ... 08 ... 31
    Tae laidir .................. 09 ... 00 ... 09 ... 07* . 03 ... 03 ... 31
    okla ......................... 03 ... 05* . 00 ... 07* . 07 ... 09 ... 31

    Con Sensus .............. 09 ... 00 ... 09 ... 02* . 04 ... 07 ... 31

    Rickylovesuall ............ 18 ... 00 ... 01 ... 04* . 07 ... 00 ... 30
    NIALL D .................... 08 ... 00 ... 07 ... 00 ... 05 ... 08 ... 28
    Lumi ........................ 10 ... 00 ... 07 ... 04* . 05 ... 02 ... 28
    snowstreams ............. 02 ... 01* . 09 ... 02* . 07 ... 07 ... 28
    John mac ................. 10 ... 00 ... 00 ... 00 ... 06 ... 10 ... 26
    Iancar29 .................. 00 ... 11* . 00 ... 07* . 07 ... 01 ... 26
    homolumo* ............... 07 ... 01* . 08 ... 00 ... 05 ... 03 ... 24
    jambofc ................... 10 ... 00 ... 02 ... 00 ... 07 ... 03 ... 22
    Hammer Archer .......... 04 ... 01* . 07 ... 00 ... 03 ... 07 ... 22
    Deep Easterly ............ 02 ... 00 ... 10 ... 00 ... 07 ... 03 ... 22
    M.T. Cranium ............ 10 ... 00 ... 00 ... 00 ... 06 ... 05 ... 21
    talkabout .................. 02 ... 07* . 00 ... 04* . 06 ... 01 ... 20
    Harps ....................... 03 ... 00 ... 00 ... 02* . 07 ... 06 ... 18
    200motels ................. 02 ... 08* . 02 ... 00 ... 04 ... 02 ... 18
    dacogawa ................. 03 ... 00 ... 01 ... 01* . 07 ... 05 ... 17
    dasa29 ..................... 00 ... 00 ... 11 ... 00 ... 04 ... 01 ... 16
    delw ........................ 04 ... 00 ... 01 ... 04* . 03 ... 03 ... 15
    redsunset ................. 00 ... 00 ... 00 ... 07* . 05 ... 00 ... 12
    cherryghost ............... 01 ... 00 ... 00 ... 00 ... 04 ... 06 ... 11
    Joe Public ................. 00 ... 00 ... 00 ... 00 ... 03 ... 05 ... 08
    ________________________________

    * beside names, late penalty could apply (but was not needed)

    * beside scores for max temp and precip, "minimum progression" rule applied.

    Congrats to K_1, SeaFields, Jerry Seinfeld and Gonzo for doing much better than most in this difficult month (Con Sensus struggled too).

    I won't start an annual scoring thread for a while yet, we will just keep track of that in the monthly threads until perhaps August or so. Therefore, look for another post later on the annual scoring race -- probably around midnight as I have some errands to run now.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,150 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Thanks as always MT.

    Thought I was screwed but didn't do as bad as I had expected! :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,551 ✭✭✭SeaFields


    Ahhh second place....it was worth the sunburn :cool::pac:

    Thanks MT


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