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March 2012 Boards forecast contest
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cherryghost wrote: »A lot of high IMT's predicted for the month! Hope I'm not wrong, I forsee daytime temps for most of the month to struggle about 10-12 degrees :P
Perhaps - but with nighttime temps of 5 degrees that's an ITM of 8C
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Rickylovesuall wrote: »might have gotten up to the 10 hours on 18th of February. It was gorgeous down in Clare the day after Paddy's!
I don't think the sun is even above the horizon for over 10 hours on the 18th February :rolleyes:0 -
Something I have been keeping an eye on for a while but it is look increasingly possible that the MSLP mean values for the January - March period this year will finish on a record high (or at least since 1950) in parts of the country.
Although not complete as of yet, the combined mean sea level pressure value from 3 of the stations used in the IMT index (namely Shannon, Casement & Claremorris) for the Jan-March period this year so far is running at 1023.7 hPa :eek:.(1961-90 average for period is 1012.1 hPa) Although March isn't over yet, it is unlikely that this value will fall before the month is finished which would make it the highest mean value for January-March period period since 1953. A quick chart (whatever a quick chart is!
) to put what I am trying to say into perspective:
Data source: ECA&D
By rights I should have included values from Mullingar & Oak Park in this to get a better scope of the IMT area but unfortunately historic MSLP values not publically available for these stations (also, data from Dublin Airport used from 1950 to 1963 as Casement data only dates back to 1964 but unlikely to affect overall values that much as mean monthly differences between both stations are negligible); but just going by the means of the 3 stations used, its looking like the first 3 months of 2012 will finish on a very high note MSLP wise with high pressure looking to remain close to Ireland for a good while yet:
Who knows, maybe it will actually bring us some sunshine eventually..0 -
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cherryghost wrote: »A lot of high IMT's predicted for the month! Hope I'm not wrong, I forsee daytime temps for most of the month to struggle about 10-12 degrees :P
How's that working out for you
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Sponge Bob wrote: »A New high was recorded yesterday. 16.4c. G'wan the Mullet.
and I predicted 16.5
Sadly thats gonna get blown out of the water this weekend. They predicting up to near 20.0 -
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Rickylovesuall wrote: »and I predicted 16.5
Sadly thats gonna get blown out of the water this weekend. They predicting up to near 20.
18.5 predicted here! 0 -
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If the temperature does not go below say 11 in casement tonight it will mean a max of around 19 and min of 11 giving an average daily return of 15c!!!!!
I have no idea about that but I reckon it would be up there alright although the mean temp at Casement yesterday was 11.1c (H 18.1c / L 7.0c). It is looking like the mean today will be higher though with 18c already being recorded at 11am.
Highest recorded March temperature at Casement was 21.3c in 1964.0 -
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22c in the mullet!
we wait a year for some good weather in the West and we get Summer in March.
I think this will be a roasting year personally.:cool: Could be freezing either
3 months way above average, I'd be surprised to see it being cold on average! I think you're right, could potentially be record breaking for the year.0 -
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Deep Easterly wrote: »
Although not complete as of yet, the combined mean sea level pressure value from 3 of the stations used in the IMT index (namely Shannon, Casement & Claremorris) for the Jan-March period this year so far is running at 1023.7 hPa :eek:.(1961-90 average for period is 1012.1 hPa)
Up to today, the 3 station MSLP mean value is standing at 1024.5 hPa.This will make it the highest January-March mean value on record, beating the 1953 Jan-Mar mean value by just over 1.0 hPa. Will be interesting to see if this trend of anomalously high pressure values will continue over the next 3 months
IMT singularities for the 3 month period January-March (based on 4 year period 2009-2012 and on midnight to midnight readings).
Warmest day: 25th March - Mean = 9.75 °C
Coldest Day: 7th January - Mean = 0.27 °C
Wettest Day: 4th February - Mean = 8.06mm
Driest Day: 28th March - Mean = 0.08mm
Singularities are not based on any one year but when certain weather events are more likely to occur based on the average of a number of years. I have only been collecting daily data for 4 years which is not enough to get an overall overview of singularities in Ireland but should at least give an idea of recent trends at least. Some interesting singularities that were developed for the UK/European region here.0 -
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Final figures for March:
IMT 8.6 C
max 22.2 (27th Belmullet)
min -2.1 (17th Mullingar)
prec 36% of normal
sun 124% of normal
bonus: 3.2 hrs sun on 17th
scoring will appear in about an hour.
(The sunshine data crept up above my estimates, could be faulty estimates on missing stations earlier, because the last three days seemed rather cloudy on the average).0 -
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