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Seven years later [Zombie thread split]
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05-03-2012 4:36am#1
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And the Graph for the UK http://www.firsttimebuyerhelp.co.uk/images/youarehere.gif
ignore the fact that prices dropped 50% after the other two peaks, That was only for erm, several years, property prices do not go down!
August '05.
Well done.0 -
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DublinWriter wrote: »...and there's the essential flaw in your plan.
No offense to you dude, but that's a real 'head in the sand' attitude.
The first flaw in your arguement is that the cost of property, in the long economic term, only goes in one direction - up.
If you think the same apartment will cost you the exact same in five years time then you're out of your mind.
I'll bet you anything that the apt that cost you 400,000 today will cost you 600,000 in 2010.
The second flaw in your arguement is that you're assuming that interest rates will stay at their current historic low over the next five years. Oil prices hit an all time high today and the trend looks like it will continue, driving up inflation and interest rates in the long term.
There's only been one good time to buy property and that time is now.
Can we get Dublinwriter back in the thread please....I've a few questions for him!!
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Woo blast from the past! I never did buy and am still renting!
It is an interesting thread to go back over alright!
In reality 3 of my 4 points did not come into it in the end of it all! It looks like it really all just boils down to how much money banks are willing/able to lend!
As for now I think we have probably seen about 75% of the drop we are going to see with about 50% (very roughly) taken off the top prices. If you find a place you like and can fund it with a 20 year mortgage on a single salary then I think it may be time for you to buy a place. Making "Cheeky offers" may help with this.
In reality until the banks are in a position to start lending again I don't see prices stopping falling any time soon. But the rate of fall will probably slow down.
In summary. There seems to be no downside to waiting a bit longer, but if you find a place you can afford (20 year mortgage on 1 salary) and you want now you won't be doing too bad either.
J0 -
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Woo blast from the past! I never did buy and am still renting!
It is an interesting thread to go back over alright!
In reality 3 of my 4 points did not come into it in the end of it all! It looks like it really all just boils down to how much money banks are willing/able to lend!
As for now I think we have probably seen about 75% of the drop we are going to see with about 50% (very roughly) taken off the top prices. If you find a place you like and can fund it with a 20 year mortgage on a single salary then I think it may be time for you to buy a place. Making "Cheeky offers" may help with this.
In reality until the banks are in a position to start lending again I don't see prices stopping falling any time soon. But the rate of fall will probably slow down.
In summary. There seems to be no downside to waiting a bit longer, but if you find a place you can afford (20 year mortgage on 1 salary) and you want now you won't be doing too bad either.
J
Wow you played a blinder WB, (tips hat), although I think by your posts that even you couldn't envision us being where we are now!!0 -
Wow you played a blinder WB, (tips hat), although I think by your posts that even you couldn't envision us being where we are now!!
100% agree! If someone told me then the state we would be in now I would have thought them a complete nut job! Turns out I was too optimistic
If nothing else I hope these threads caused at least one or two people to question the popular beliefs and make their own decisions!0 -
100% agree! If someone told me then the state we would be in now I would have thought them a complete nut job! Turns out I was too optimistic
If nothing else I hope these threads caused at least one or two people to question the popular beliefs and make their own decisions!
I found the thread interesting for a lot of reasons, my main one though relates to the government in power - the posts on this thread were, I believe, following the government/VI's line and spin.
The biggest scariest thing in this thread is that none of those who disagreed with you attempted to work out a "what if" property prices fall or "what if" interest rates rise - or even "what if" I lose my job.
The thought of any of these three scenarios just didn't come into it at all. We can blame the government for so much (and I do) but when it's your neck on the line the only person you can depend on is you and that being the case do your sums, factor in mortgage interest rises/illness/job loss. If you can't buy a property comfortably then don't.
I regularly have EA's/mortgage brokers contact me about properties/mortgages - I ask them for a guarantee that if I can't pay that "little" mortgage for the property that is "great value" in 2 years from now, that they will take it over and pay it?
Needless to say I'm still waiting!!0 -
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A fair few people were of the mindset that if they couldn't buy in Dublin then head out to the sticks and buy.
Why did they feel they had to buy, no matter where ?
Because from every direction, that is what people were hearing.Then they reckoned they could in a few years move back to the capital.
Hell they did not even register their cars in the counties they were living in, but registered them in Dublin.
I know a few people that actually managed to make it back to Dublin, but their mortgages must be a millstone around their necks for years to come.
Yes - that was the aim for many. It's no different to investors/developers/bankers/government ministers who were doing the same thing. People did make a lot of money out of property and that fed the frenzy.I think I remembered that ad as well.
Then again i didn't run out and buy because I knew property was a bad investment, whether I wanted to rent it or live in it.
Neither did I - but plenty did. Mainly in their 20's and if you look at this demographic of society, they were brought up in remarkably affluent times, they never saw a recession, never drew the dole, probably didn't even know anyone on the dole.A lot of people believed some of the awful sh**e that was being pedalled.
They felt they had to get on the ladder, but everything would be alright and their shoebox would be worth 100,000 more and then they could trade up.
Either they were somewhat greedy and only saw the gains their friends had made or they were idiots ?
It was being pedalled by the people who were supposed to be in charge, all people could see for years in a row was property going up in price and further from their reach.You see your argument would hold more sway if a lot of the ones who are in trouble had not taken out 100% or near enough to 100% mortgages, thus meaning they affectively had no savings to put towards a house purchase.
Also how many of these purchasers moved into houses with little or no furniture or God forbid second hand furniture ?
How many of them also appeared to be driving new cars ?
By virtue of the fact that 1000's are in serious trouble, more are in NE , my argument proves itself. While there will always be stupid people and greedy people, you can't say that all those who bought during the boom were.
Many were/are decent hardworking people/families who simply wanted a home.So was that stupidity or was it because they wanted their slice of the pie now and they would not contenance anything that blew that bubble ?
You know this them and you argument infers that you and others who think like you DID NOT benefit from the boom, you did. You paid very little tax, had great tax breaks, pay rises. All of this was from wealth created by the property bubble and the "fools" who bought.So do you suggest a bailout for mortgage holders ?
If you do then this discussion is over.
I am not going to support the bail out, sorry firing my current and future taxes, at any more people who made bad economic dicisions.
So if I have a different point of view you refuse to discuss? Defeats the purpose of a discussion forum now doesn't it?
There will have to be a debt write-down (not a bailout for mortgage holders) on those who will never be able to pay, there will have to be a write-down for those in serious trouble. We have a section of the workforce trapped all around the country. They cannot sell, cannot find work to pay the mortgage, cannot move for work.
It astonishes me that people are so dead against this - even though we bailed out bondholders who had no right to such a deal - yet despite the banks already having being bailed out, with money provided to cover mortgage losses, they are STILL getting money off hard pressed people - it is a second bailout, this is money that won't go back to our economy.
Also, keeping these people on the SW is dragging the economy further - not to mention the dead property market - it will happen.
By design or accident there will be a write - down of debt.So the price of property finds a correct market level and banks have more right offs ?
Should people get to keep something they have not paid for ?
Should I pay for someone elses home as well as one for my family ?
It won't find the correct market level because a lot of property on the market is still at elevated prices - because of NE.
No - people should not get to keep what they have not paid for. If someone is living in a 5 bed in Cabinteely then they should not keep that house - if they can't afford it with some kind of write - down then they lose it.
This is not about rewarding bad behaviour - it is about freeing up the labour market, freeing up cash that is going to banks and allowing people to start again with a more manageable debt.
This isn't anything new - it's been done on an hourly basis in the States. We have to look at the bigger picture.Sorry to be harsh but sh** happens.
When we lived in caves some people were reckless, stupid and sometimes maybe a bit unlucky and got eaten by wild animals.
Without some of us being maybe a bit smarter, more conservative and a bit luckier we might not exist as a human race today.
Christ jmayo - people made a mistake - if they murdered someone their sentence would be lighter. In not giving a write-down it's those left working who are suffering.0 -
Because from every direction, that is what people were hearing.
There is such a thing as personal responsibility.Neither did I - but plenty did. Mainly in their 20's and if you look at this demographic of society, they were brought up in remarkably affluent times, they never saw a recession, never drew the dole, probably didn't even know anyone on the dole.
Yes these would be the same ones who "wanted it all and now".
Except now a lot of these same people want someone else to pay for their spending.
Well feck them, the BMW they rode in and the donkey they will ride out on.It was being pedalled by the people who were supposed to be in charge, all people could see for years in a row was property going up in price and further from their reach.
And I will say this as I said in another thread, there were enough people out there saying it will crash.
Of course they were lambasted and labelled as cranks.
There was enough history to show that it was an unsustainable bubble and they always result in a crash.
Hell how many Irish people had seen relatives get burnt in the property bubble of the UK in the late 80s ?
Of course the naysayers were countered with the BS about how "Ireland was different" and as the poster on this original thread trotted out "property prices always go up ... and have never gone down in Ireland".By virtue of the fact that 1000's are in serious trouble, more are in NE , my argument proves itself. While there will always be stupid people and greedy people, you can't say that all those who bought during the boom were.
Many were/are decent hardworking people/families who simply wanted a home.
I am not saying everyone was greedy or stupid, but a hell of an amount were.
FFS you had 21 year olds buying property and a lot of the time as investments because they still wanted to live with mammy.
You had eejits buying anywhere just to get on the ladder, and they never appeared to notice what type of unwanted property in some unwanted location they were buying.You know this them and you argument infers that you and others who think like you DID NOT benefit from the boom, you did. You paid very little tax, had great tax breaks, pay rises. All of this was from wealth created by the property bubble and the "fools" who bought.
Now you are beginning to sound like a ffer.
Yeah we are all to blame and we all benefitted. :rolleyes:
My salary jumped a lot up until 2001, when I became a casualty of the dot com bubble burst.
Then I had to start again.
During the construciton bubble, I did not have great pay rises as I did not work in the public sector or in construction.
As for all the benefits I saw a fair few disadvantages like more traffic snarl ups trying to get to work and a general increase in the cost of living.
Oh and having to listen to all the muppets lecturing me how I was an idioit because I didn't own a few investment pads and how women would see me as a loser since I was driving an old car. :rolleyes:So if I have a different point of view you refuse to discuss? Defeats the purpose of a discussion forum now doesn't it?
No I find discussing how my taxes are going to be wasted rather infuriating.There will have to be a debt write-down (not a bailout for mortgage holders) on those who will never be able to pay, there will have to be a write-down for those in serious trouble. We have a section of the workforce trapped all around the country. They cannot sell, cannot find work to pay the mortgage, cannot move for work.
So what exactly do you mean by a debt write-down ?
So these ones that cannot sell, cannot repay the mortgage, cannot move, will they get to keep their properties and enjoy a debt write down ?It astonishes me that people are so dead against this - even though we bailed out bondholders who had no right to such a deal - yet despite the banks already having being bailed out, with money provided to cover mortgage losses, they are STILL getting money off hard pressed people - it is a second bailout, this is money that won't go back to our economy.
If you bother reading my posts you will find I was one of the most ardent opposers of NAMA, bank bailouts for the likes of Anglo/INBS and would most certainly have asset stripped every one of the developers and their sprogs.
The banks are STILL getting money off hard pressed people, because those people STILL OWE money.
Fecks sake you would swear that the banks are acting like a Mafia loanshark and that the people are been chased for no reason.
The people signed up for loans and mortgages and the banks are trying to get repayment.
The money allocated for mortgage debts should not be used if people can continue to pay for their mortgages in some fashion.
BTW that money allocated to banks for mortgage losses is funded by the taxpayers and if some of it can be recouped without being used then it is all the better for the taxpayers.Also, keeping these people on the SW is dragging the economy further - not to mention the dead property market - it will happen.
By design or accident there will be a write - down of debt.
It won't find the correct market level because a lot of property on the market is still at elevated prices - because of NE.
No - people should not get to keep what they have not paid for. If someone is living in a 5 bed in Cabinteely then they should not keep that house - if they can't afford it with some kind of write - down then they lose it.
If by the debt writedown you mean they enter a form of bankruptcy then fine, but there should be no debt write down where they can walk away, dumping their debts on the rest of us and immediately be allowed start again.
That is a slap in the face to those who didn't go overboard and those who are doing their best to meet their debts.
There has to be some form of economic punishment for dumping your debts.
And being forced to give up your property should only be part of it.Christ jmayo - people made a mistake - if they murdered someone their sentence would be lighter. In not giving a write-down it's those left working who are suffering.
Jaysus don't get me started on the criminal system. :mad:
I would have life meaning life and none of this out in less than 10 with remission for good behaviour sh**e. :mad:I am not allowed discuss …
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Again because they were fed the line and the credit from the banks - if bankers who are paid to assess risk didn't see anything wrong with that how could you expect people who weren't experts to know better?
If a car salesman tells you that a car is a great buy, do you believe him without checking out the car ?
Fecks sake people spent more time and effort on buying a car than a property.So why shouldn't others be allowed to start again? And with respect there were a lot of warnings about the dot.com bubble - what were you? Stupid? Greedy? No disrespect intended but it's the same thing.
So in your world it is ok to run up massive debts, then if times get hard you walk away from them, leaving others to cover those debts and you get to start again the next day ?
Good luck with that. :rolleyes:
And comparing the housing bubble with the dot com buble is like comparing apples with spuds.
It is not the same bloody thing.
I did not demand someone else pay for any losses I encurred after the company I worked for collapsed.
I chose to work for a dot com involved company.
I could leave at anytime, I could go elsewhere.
If you buy a house you are signing up for a 20 to 40 year committment.
You are signing a contract that you will repay someone the money you borrowed.
The only way my job with a dot com would compare would be if I signed up as an indentured servant with a committment to pay my employer over 20 years.But you had a job? You benefited from low taxes did you not? Your job was maybe created or your company profited from the boom did it not?
Why not just say that everyone who lived here owes those that made bad economic decisions ?
Sure my kids can help pay for those decisions as well. :mad:
It is bad enough they are already going to be paying for banks, regulators, government you now wnat them to pay for every eejit who thought a 100% mortgage with their credit card debt rolled in was a mighty idea. :mad:I pay taxes as well and I can tell you I'd rather see people - not institutions both Irish and European bailed out with my taxes and if we allowed people to start again and take up employment wouldn't it lessen the burden on the rest of us?
If it means them getting off SW and working and paying taxes - why not?
Take up what employment ?
Do you think that what is holding back the country is the fact some people are in negative equity and can't move somewhere else to jobs ?What about the shareholders or pension investments - these people can't demand repayment of their money - they were wiped out because of bad investments yet the banks who made the same bad investments. As did the bondholders. These can and are still carrying on.
You do know that making more bad decisions doesn't cancel out existing bad decisions ?
BTW my pension lost money so where is my bailout ? :rolleyes:That money was borrowed - we won't see a cent of it back and while we're cutting budgets to facilitate these loans the banks are raising interest rates and still chasing money from people who don't have it.
Ehh we have to cut budgets not because the banks were bailed out but becuase we were overspending !!!!
You do realise that our expenditure was about 20 billion more than our tax take and that is before we ever factor in the bank bailout costs.It's already dumped on us. Again why shouldn't people be allowed to start again> Do you really see the logic in condemning the 21 year old who bought an investment property to a debt he'll carry around his neck for life? Forcing him out of this country or on the dole?
Why would he be forced on the dole by paying his debts ?
WTF ?
By start again what do you mean ?
Do you think that the person who went out and made a reckless borrowing committment, did not repay it and dumped it on the rest of us should immediately be allowed just walk away without any financial implications ?These are the people who we need to be working.
They should be fooking working anyway.
What the hell is it with this thing about people who are in debt are not capable of working ?No, no we reserve that right for foreign investors/bondholders and the banks - for the plebs it's pay it all back.
Basically everyone deserves a bailout in your world.
Sweet if you are the one getting the bailout, not so nice if you are one paying for it. :rolleyes:We'll have to agree to disagree. But I don't focus on "individuals" that's narrow minded - I look at the drag the having people in major debt - debt that at some stage will become unsustainable is having on our economy.
Yes it is bad that some people are over burdened with debt, but deciding to dump all that on others is not fair and will have a knock on affect.
What do you think the additional costs others will have to bear will do to their spending power ?We'll let these people rot in the sticks where there are no jobs, we'll continue to pay our taxes to pay for the SW that they receive or we'll watch them leave this country to work elsewhere.
So do you think if we bailout all those who as you put it bought in the sticks and let them move that they will magically find jobs and everything will be hunky dory ?
Sorry to burst your little bubble but there aren't the jobs anywhere in this country.
Most of those who are stuck in the sticks worked in construction related jobs and there aren't any of those in Ireland.
Ah but shure we will bail them out so that they can emigrate with a clean slate.BTW, the same naysayers are now saying that mortgage debt write down is essential to the recovery - ironic really as they got it all right so far - I guess they must be wrong and this government must be right. What a turnaround eh....
Hmmm I wonder if some of those naysayers leading this little crusade have large mortgages hangin over their heads and are hoping to benefit from such bailouts ? :rolleyes:
I am out of this discussion because you appear to think that
a) walking away from your debts with no financial implications is ok
b) all our problems are due to bank debts and bank bailouts
c) that bailing out those in debt has no costs for the rest of us and would in fact make everything alright again
c) and that there is a mythical chunk of jobs out there somewhere that would solve everything if people were only allowed move to them by being bailed out of their debt
I surrender.
I am not allowed discuss …
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So in your world it is ok to run up massive debts, then if times get hard you walk away from them, leaving others to cover those debts and you get to start again the next day ?
Good luck with that. :rolleyes:
Never said that. But we'll end up covering them or do you think that they will ever pay them of - for the most part anyway.And comparing the housing bubble with the dot com buble is like comparing apples with spuds.
It is not the same bloody thing.
But the warnings were the same were they not?If you buy a house you are signing up for a 20 to 40 year committment.
You are signing a contract that you will repay someone the money you borrowed.
Only applicable if you have the promise of a 40 year ever increasing income with no cuts.Why not just say that everyone who lived here owes those that made bad economic decisions ?
Sure my kids can help pay for those decisions as well. :mad:
It is bad enough they are already going to be paying for banks, regulators, government you now wnat them to pay for every eejit who thought a 100% mortgage with their credit card debt rolled in was a mighty idea. :mad:
Your kids (and mine are on the hook) do you not see that getting these people back to work and paying their taxes might alleviate the problem.
There are some jobs - the problem is that people are now on the SW and afraid to take them as the wages are lower and they lose benefits, such as RA, medical cards etc,.Take up what employment ?
Do you think that what is holding back the country is the fact some people are in negative equity and can't move somewhere else to jobs ?You do know that making more bad decisions doesn't cancel out existing bad decisions ?
BTW my pension lost money so where is my bailout ? :rolleyes:
The same place a lot of peoples deposits (yes some got 100% mortgages, not a whole lot though), the same place as a lot of peoples repayments on mortgages for homes that are now worth 50% less than what they paid. Gone.Ehh we have to cut budgets not because the banks were bailed out but becuase we were overspending !!!!
You do realise that our expenditure was about 20 billion more than our tax take and that is before we ever factor in the bank bailout costs.
And how do we do this? It's not all about cutting - it's about growth, it's about raising the tax income - how do we do that if people can't come off the SW? How do we do this if the demand on SW isn't curtailed? How do we get growth? How do we create demand when those who can still pay haven't a bean to buy in the shops?Why would he be forced on the dole by paying his debts ?
WTF ?
By start again what do you mean ?
Because he's being supported by the SW who are paying his MIS. If he tried to get a job at the newer, more realistic rates, then he won't be able to repay the debt. He'll opt for bankruptcy when the law changes - and that means he won't pay any of it back, he may then leave and not contribute to this society.Do you think that the person who went out and made a reckless borrowing committment, did not repay it and dumped it on the rest of us should immediately be allowed just walk away without any financial implications ?
What about the banks who made a reckless borrowing commitment - why the different treatment for them?
In order for the banks to start again they had to write down their own debt - it's the same for the man on the street - he will not be able to start again if he is forced to repay a debt that he took out when he was working.
And yes people are stuck in the commuter belt away from where a lot of jobs are available, they cannot sell, they cannot afford to commute, they cannot rent out their properties. It is a problem.They should be fooking working anyway.
What the hell is it with this thing about people who are in debt are not capable of working ?
Who said that? the biggest obstacle for a lot of people is that they are now in the SW trap. I know a couple relocating back to Ireland and both have gotten jobs paying 24k - they've rented an apartment for 600pm and can manage ok on that money - ask someone on the dole, claiming RA, medical card if it would pay them to work for that money> I can tell you the answer.Basically everyone deserves a bailout in your world.
Sweet if you are the one getting the bailout, not so nice if you are one paying for it. :rolleyes:
Don't be trite - that's not what I mean. We are paying for it - between people staying longer on SW/people leaving this country and those left paying higher taxes/rising cost of living - what do you foresee?Yes it is bad that some people are over burdened with debt, but deciding to dump all that on others is not fair and will have a knock on affect.
What do you think the additional costs others will have to bear will do to their spending power ?
it will be dumped on us sooner or later - either by defaulters, bankruptcy, write downs that are already happening on a small scale - we are paying the price already.So do you think if we bailout all those who as you put it bought in the sticks and let them move that they will magically find jobs and everything will be hunky dory ?
Sorry to burst your little bubble but there aren't the jobs anywhere in this country.
Most of those who are stuck in the sticks worked in construction related jobs and there aren't any of those in Ireland.
Ah but shure we will bail them out so that they can emigrate with a clean slate.
Ans sorry to burst yours but there are - they just can't compete with out SW system.Hmmm I wonder if some of those naysayers leading this little crusade have large mortgages hangin over their heads and are hoping to benefit from such bailouts ? :rolleyes:
And that makes them wrong - please.I am out of this discussion because you appear to think that
a) walking away from your debts with no financial implications is ok
b) all our problems are due to bank debts and bank bailouts
c) that bailing out those in debt has no costs for the rest of us and would in fact make everything alright again
c) and that there is a mythical chunk of jobs out there somewhere that would solve everything if people were only allowed move to them by being bailed out of their debt
I surrender.
A) I never said that - that's your narrow-minded assessment.
I never said that either. We have a deficit - how do you suppose we'll cut it with no growth?
C)Never said that either. I have explained my reasons to you, if you don't want to hear then fine.
D) The myth is that there are NO jobs.
Off you toddle jmayo - I'm sure this discussion will arise again, probably when the real mortgage problem rears it's head and people are defaulting left right and center - of course like the last government they'll screw it up by going into crisis mode and making knee-jerk decisions.
We got everything else wrong - why break the habit of a lifetime eh....0 -
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