Official Free Money Betting Superthread 2011/12

thomond2006 · 02-09-2011 10:05am #1

New season, new beginning, more opportunities to finance the bookmakers!

6034073

Odds for Outright Winner of World Cup.

France could well be the value there, they're in form after the warmups and certainties to make it out of their pool. As we discovered in 07, they can beat anyone anytime when they decide to turn up. Might be worth a sly fiver as an outsider bet.

Won't touch the ABs at those odds so I might back Australia to win also.

This weekend I'm backing Munster -10 at 10/11 at home to Dragons.

Judgement Day · 02-09-2011 12:42pm

How about Ospreys vs Leinster tonight. Looks like a lethal Leinster backline and I reckon Leinster to win at 10/11 is easy money.

02-09-2011 12:57pm

Don't like the HC bet on Munster, and don't like the win bet on Leinster either.

Gl though!

theboss80 · 02-09-2011 1:03pm

Judgement Day wrote: »

How about Ospreys vs Leinster tonight. Looks like a lethal Leinster backline and I reckon Leinster to win at 10/11 is easy money.

Leinster -9 @ 11/4 to make it exciting

Podge_irl · 02-09-2011 3:54pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

France could well be the value there, they're in form after the warmups and certainties to make it out of their pool. .

France are likely to meet England in the QF though aren't they? I'd fancy England to take that game tbh.

thomond2006 · 02-09-2011 3:55pm

Podge_irl wrote: »

France are likely to meet England in the QF though aren't they? I'd fancy England to take that game tbh.

Good point, that's why I would keep a bet on France to a fiver.

tolosenc · 02-09-2011 4:43pm

Got a tenner on Oz at 6/1 nearly a year ago. *smug*

Alternative handicap accums on PP for me in the early stages of the WC, with the €130 I won on Leinster winning the Heineken Cup.

Have a fiver on the the following accum for this weekend: Munster -4, Ulster -6, Leinster -5, Scarlets -6. As well as the customary couple of quid on Dave Kearney to score a try.

Judgement Day · 02-09-2011 4:44pm

Ulster vs Glasgow. Weather cloudy and dry.
More than 17.5 points in 1st half @ 5/6

Ospreys vs Leinster. Weather sunny/cloudy and dry.
More than 19.5 points in the 1st half @ 5/6
Leinster to win - evens.
Leinster to win by more than 8 @ 11/4
Isa Nacewa a try @ 16/5
Fionn Carr a try @ 23/10

God loves a tryer!

Now what odds on finding a pub that will be showing the Leinster game instead of 'dirt' football as my local barman refers to it.

Podge_irl · 02-09-2011 4:45pm

Judgement Day wrote: »

Now what odds on finding a pub that will be showing the Leinster game instead of 'dirt' football as my local barman refers to it.

Sounds like your local would be a good bet :P

Gracelessly Tom · 02-09-2011 5:39pm

I'll put my ante post RWC bets up here for good measure.....

Samoa to reach the quarters @ 7/1
Samoa to reach the semi's @35/1
Ireland to win RWC @ 25/1 (got it before the two home warm ups)
Ireland to reach the final @9/1

Will have a few more before next Friday, wouldn't be a world cup without a top scorer and tryscorer bet!

Gracelessly Tom · 02-09-2011 5:42pm

For tonight I've gone with Leinster -5 @ 2/1. C'mon Leinster....

New season off and running!

sock puppet · 02-09-2011 5:54pm

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

Will have a few more before next Friday, wouldn't be a world cup without a top scorer and tryscorer bet!

The two New Zealand wingers are favourites but it doesn't seem right to me. Neither have a great try scoring record.

Gracelessly Tom · 02-09-2011 5:55pm

sock puppet wrote: »

The two New Zealand wingers are favourites but it doesn't seem right to me. Neither have a great try scoring record.

I know what you mean. I think you're better off going for a sub winger for NZ or Aus as they could run in 4 or 5 tries against a group minnow. Ashley-Cooper v Russia for example.

Cill Dara Abu · 02-09-2011 5:58pm

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

I know what you mean. I think you're better off going for a sub winger for NZ or Aus as they could run in 4 or 5 tries against a group minnow. Ashley-Cooper v Russia for example.

The problem with this is that Adam Ashley Cooper probably won't play against the likes of Russia, they will be rested for the bigger games.

Gracelessly Tom · 02-09-2011 6:01pm

Just went on to Paddy Power to check the top tryscorer odds and Alesana Tuilagi is 500/1!! With 4 places he's got to be e/w value. If Samoa do manage to get through he could easily score a few tries and grab a place.

Am I missing something (is he injured) or are they actually crazy odds?

Gracelessly Tom · 02-09-2011 6:03pm

Cill Dara Abu wrote: »

The problem with this is that Adam Ashley Cooper probably won't play against the likes of Russia, they will be rested for the bigger games.

I think he could play against them, I'd imagine they'll go with O'Connor and Ioane on the wings. He is so versatile that he could be benched for the big games and play the smaller ones.

sock puppet · 02-09-2011 6:03pm

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

I know what you mean. I think you're better off going for a sub winger for NZ or Aus as they could run in 4 or 5 tries against a group minnow. Ashley-Cooper v Russia for example.

Maybe. With only 3 wingers in the squad he's likely to play there a bit. The other issue is Mitchell. I think he's played a bit of club rugby since his return but I doubt he can have done enough to get his starting spot back. But he could easily be starting come the knockout stages.

PhatPiggins · 02-09-2011 6:10pm

tolosenc wrote: »

Got a tenner on Oz at 6/1 nearly a year ago. *smug*

.

Oz were a minimum of 10/1 a year ago in most places.

Leinster +3 are Dragons +12 are my bets in the Celtic Magners Rabo Direct Pro12 for the weekend.

How soon before we can just call it the Pro12?

PhatPiggins · 02-09-2011 6:12pm

sock puppet wrote: »

Maybe. With only 3 wingers in the squad he's likely to play there a bit. The other issue is Mitchell. I think he's played a bit of club rugby since his return but I doubt he can have done enough to get his starting spot back. But he could easily be starting come the knockout stages.

I hope he is. I think Mitchell is a cracking player, often under rated but he's like Keith Earls with a brain.

duckysauce · 02-09-2011 6:21pm

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

Just went on to Paddy Power to check the top tryscorer odds and Alesana Tuilagi is 500/1!! With 4 places he's got to be e/w value. If Samoa do manage to get through he could easily score a few tries and grab a place.

Am I missing something (is he injured) or are they actually crazy odds?

those odds are mad, i backed him last month for same bet he and was 50/1 ??
have heard nothing about him being injured

duckysauce · 02-09-2011 6:24pm

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

I'll put my ante post RWC bets up here for good measure.....

Samoa to reach the quarters @ 7/1
Samoa to reach the semi's @35/1
Ireland to win RWC @ 25/1 (got it before the two home warm ups)
Ireland to reach the final @9/1

Will have a few more before next Friday, wouldn't be a world cup without a top scorer and tryscorer bet!

very like me i have a fairly large amount on soma to reach q/fs at 7/1 , was very upset to see wales playing well recently and SA playing crap.

Also went for ireland 25/1 frogs 16/1 and aussies at 5/1

only a week to go

Gracelessly Tom · 02-09-2011 6:28pm

duckysauce wrote: »

those odds are mad, i backed them last month for same bet he and was 50/1 ??
have heard nothing about him being injured

I threw a fiver each way on it @ 500/1. If he's injured so be it but couldn't refuse those odds!:D

Gracelessly Tom · 02-09-2011 6:42pm

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

Just went on to Paddy Power to check the top tryscorer odds and Alesana Tuilagi is 500/1!! With 4 places he's got to be e/w value. If Samoa do manage to get through he could easily score a few tries and grab a place.

Am I missing something (is he injured) or are they actually crazy odds?

Hahaha, he's now 80/1!

MungBean · 02-09-2011 6:52pm

On PP so odds could be better elsewhere.

Name the 8 quarter finalists.

New Zealand, France, England, Argentina, Australia, Ireland, South Africa & Wales @ 13/8

Name the quarter finals.

Australia vs Wales, England vs France, South Africa vs Ireland, & New Zealand vs Argentina @ 9/2

Be very surprised the quarters looked any different than that.

PhatPiggins · 02-09-2011 6:53pm

duckysauce wrote: »

very like me i have a fairly large amount on soma to reach q/fs at 7/1 , was very upset to see wales playing well recently and SA playing crap.

Also went for ireland 25/1 frogs 16/1 and aussies at 5/1

only a week to go

I'm going to take a stab and say you only bet with Paddy?

duckysauce · 02-09-2011 7:00pm

PhatPiggins wrote: »

I'm going to take a stab and say you only bet with Paddy?

lol yeah i know i should look around but am a lazy sod

duckysauce · 02-09-2011 7:03pm

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

Hahaha, he's now 80/1!

got him before it changed owe you a beer if he comes in.

PhatPiggins · 02-09-2011 7:04pm

duckysauce wrote: »

lol yeah i know i should look around but am a lazy sod

Ireland 50/1 on Betfair, sorry to be the rubbing salt in the wounds guy

duckysauce · 02-09-2011 7:11pm

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Ireland 50/1 on Betfair, sorry to be the rubbing salt in the wounds guy

yep they are out to 40/1 with pp now , backed them end of July before their bizarre performances in August.

Judgement Day · 02-09-2011 9:37pm

Judgement Day wrote: »

Ulster vs Glasgow. Weather cloudy and dry.
More than 17.5 points in 1st half @ 5/6 15-11 HT then it rained..:D

Ospreys vs Leinster. Weather sunny/cloudy and dry.
More than 19.5 points in the 1st half @ 5/6 27-3 HT
Leinster to win - evens. 27-3 FT
Leinster to win by more than 8 @ 11/4
Isa Nacewa a try @ 16/5
Fionn Carr a try @ 23/10

God loves a tryer!

Now what odds on finding a pub that will be showing the Leinster game instead of 'dirt' football as my local barman refers to it.

Plus I had to abandon my usual local for the 'dirt' football just before half time and the #2 pub only had BBC NI - Ulster vs Glasgow - which was obviously a damn sight more exciting than the Leinster debacle. Only €4 down and there's tomorrow to come.

profitius · 03-09-2011 12:04am

How about Connacht @ 2/1? They have almost a full team against Treviso who are missing 12 players.

thomond2006 · 03-09-2011 12:06am

profitius wrote: »

How about Connacht @ 2/1? They have almost a full team against Treviso who are missing 12 players.

Stuck a few on Connacht at 9/5 on PP.

Gracelessly Tom · 03-09-2011 1:39am

duckysauce wrote: »

got him before it changed owe you a beer if he comes in.

I'll hold you to that! Mind you if he does finish top I reckon we owe ourselves a serious night out!

Judgement Day · 03-09-2011 10:21am

thomond2006 wrote: »

Stuck a few on Connacht at 9/5 on PP.

Are Connacht not a spent force now having lost some of their key players like Keatley and Carr? Still my luck can only improve so I might give them a lash - sorry lads.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 03-09-2011 11:00am

Judgement Day wrote: »

Are Connacht not a spent force now having lost some of their key players like Keatley and Carr? Still my luck can only improve so I might give them a lash - sorry lads.

12 Treviso players at the RWC. Its enough for most people to be willing to give it a lash. I'm not going to try it because Connacht made a huge amount of changes to the squad and I'm not sure they will be familiar enough wih each other to succeed.

duckysauce · 03-09-2011 11:22am

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

I'll hold you to that! Mind you if he does finish top I reckon we owe ourselves a serious night out!

if he comes in I will buy you your own keg

Podge_irl · 03-09-2011 2:38pm

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

I threw a fiver each way on it @ 500/1. If he's injured so be it but couldn't refuse those odds!:D

Likewise. Really ridiculous odds. I'l buy you a nice bottle of whiskey!

PhatPiggins · 03-09-2011 2:51pm

Podge_irl wrote: »

Likewise. Really ridiculous odds. I'l buy you a nice bottle of whiskey!

Would you not be afraid PaddyPower will quote the "palpable error" rule?

As its PP I say they'd honour it, they do PR very well.

Gracelessly Tom · 03-09-2011 2:54pm

There'll be some shouting in at least three homes during the Samoa games so!:D

Gracelessly Tom · 03-09-2011 2:58pm

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Would you not be afraid PaddyPower will quote the "palpable error" rule?

As its PP I say they'd honour it, they do PR very well.

Yeah, it is a slight worry but the fact they have taken the bet and not been in touch to say there is a problem is good... I hope.

They must have copped it very quickly as the odds changed. Reckon if it's a small risk they'll leave it be. As you say, they're genius with the auld PR stuff.

Podge_irl · 03-09-2011 2:58pm

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Would you not be afraid PaddyPower will quote the "palpable error" rule?

As its PP I say they'd honour it, they do PR very well.

Little bit, but I'm not so sure bringing something in from 500/1 to 80/1 really counts as a palpable error. It's not like they made the odds 20/1 instead of 1/20 or anything like that. Anyway, I don't really expect the bet to come in!

Gracelessly Tom · 03-09-2011 3:00pm

Podge_irl wrote: »

Little bit, but I'm not so sure bringing something in from 500/1 to 80/1 really counts as a palpable error. It's not like they made the odds 20/1 instead of 1/20 or anything like that. Anyway, I don't really expect the bet to come in!

Yeah, realistically we're on the each way chance. Never know, he could get 4 tries and nick a top 4 spot. Chances of him being top scorer are slim to be honest.

03-09-2011 3:08pm

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

Yeah, realistically we're on the each way chance. Never know, he could get 4 tries and nick a top 4 spot. Chances of him being top scorer are slim to be honest.

Or you can hope that he's in the primary group of big try scorers after the group stages, his price comes down to 25/1 and you can lay some gtd profit on betfair against him...

MungBean · 03-09-2011 3:40pm

Hope none of you win a cent because I missed it by a minute or two and I'm a jealous begrudging bastard. :mad:

Not really though

But yeah a little bit

duckysauce · 03-09-2011 6:09pm

its odd he was 50/1 when i backed him on 17 july then he goes to 500/1

, they can stick palpable error up their hole as he is an outsider , COME on SAMOA

thomond2006 · 03-09-2011 6:13pm

duckysauce wrote: »

its odd he was 50/1 when i backed him on 17 july then he goes to 500/1 , they can stick palpable error up their hole as he is an outsider , COME on SAMOA

Where is Tuilagi available at 500/1?

In other news, 9/5 on Connacht.

Gracelessly Tom · 03-09-2011 6:31pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

Where is Tuilagi available at 500/1?

In other news, 9/5 on Connacht.

He was 500/1 for a while last night with PP. A few of us managed to get on him before they put him into 80/1.

03-09-2011 9:30pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

This weekend I'm backing Munster -10 at 10/11 at home to Dragons.

Judgement Day wrote: »

How about Ospreys vs Leinster tonight. Looks like a lethal Leinster backline and I reckon Leinster to win at 10/11 is easy money.

Deleted User wrote: »

Don't like the HC bet on Munster, and don't like the win bet on Leinster either.

Gl though!

Ship, Ship.

Sorry boys!

thomond2006 · 03-09-2011 9:43pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Ship, Ship.

Sorry boys!

........

Judgement Day · 03-09-2011 10:05pm

Good Munster performance tonight saw me 'only' :rolleyes: €40 down - will I ever learn.

duckysauce · 03-09-2011 10:17pm

Judgement Day wrote: »

Good Munster performance tonight saw me 'only' :rolleyes: €40 down - will I ever learn.

nope

me neither lost money i made on connaught

Official Free Money Betting Superthread 2011/12

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