Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Hmm, document created 19/10/2012 . I see what you mean.

http://willcooperweather.weebly.com/uploads/1/0/8/3/10837558/full_uk_winter_forecast_2011-12.pdf

I can find no google references to it before that date. He had another blog for about a week during the summer, FWIW.

Hi there, it's Will Cooper here, founder of WC Weather.
The reason the document created date shows the 19th October, is because I transferred the document from my old website to my current one. I also made a blog in the Summer, but deleted it due to poor interest at the time.
I can reassure you, that the document was originally created on the 1st December 2011.
The updated parts (in RED text) are where I've inserted evidence of the events in the forecast occuring, which many of them did, most notably the Scottish storm of January 2012. The reason it shows it updated, is because that's when I put the evidence of the forecast success into the forecast, so I could put the forecast into archive (which I done 19th Oct), so people could view it's accuracy, where it went right, and where it went wrong. Last year's forecast went pretty well overall, and hopefully this year's goes down similar routes. If it goes wrong, I'll put my hands up and take it on the chin, afterall I'm only human, and mistakes happen... I'll learn from them.

Hope that helps to make ait a little clearer? Hope all is well?

Thanks for your feedback, much appreciated

Will Cooper

Su Campu wrote: »

An amateur would mean a qualified meteorologist but who makes his living at something else. A Hobby Meteorologist would be more apt term, and the German Weather Service have a section on their site for them.

Thanks for the feedback, I've changed it to a Hooby Meteorologist.


Feedback is much appreciated.

Hope all is well?

Have a great weekend!

Will

Su Campu wrote: »

Not sure what a Hooby is, I'd recommend Hobby!:pac:

Hahaha, my mistake... slip of the finger
Corrected

Photo taken in Cobh tonight, not my pic I seen it on another site

WCWeather wrote: »

Hahaha, my mistake... slip of the finger
Corrected

I'm afraid I have some issues with your forecast and claims of being an expert and professional.

• You demonstrate little of knowledge of the major teleconnections you use in your forecasts. For example, the PDO was defined through principal component analysis, not by simply looking at Pacific SSTs north of 20N.
  
• You merely attempted descriptions the teleconnections (and got them wrong several times), but never showed the physical link between them and your forecast of a cold winter.
  
• You claim a +ve AO causes colder weather for Europe.
  
• You post an ENSO forecast graph from 2009 as though it is current, claim current El Nino forecasts by major groups are being influenced by global warming and then go on to predict a stronger +ve ENSO than even the NOAA currently are!
  
• Current mainstream predictions are going with ENSO neutral conditions for the winter, which ruins your 65/66 and 76/77 comparisons, nevermind that 76/77 was a +ve PDO winter.
  
• You claim that 2 of the CFS charts you posted show temperature anomalies, when in fact they clearly show sea level pressure anomalies.
  
• You appear to mix up sea level pressure anomalies and geopotential height. using the very same charts you thought were temperature anomalies.

These are just some of the mistakes, mis-understanding and misrepresentations in your forecast. But that's far from being the worst part.

In an attempt to appear knowledgeable, every part of the "reasoning" and your teleconnective information for your wild, cold winter forecast has been ripped from elsewhere on the internet, from different predictions and from different years and all without acknowledgement, which explains why the dates on your graphs are wrong and why your reasoning seems so muddled.
For example, your section on the PDO and ENSO has clearly been stolen, word for word, image for image, from a third the way down on this website
http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?a=186
The part on the AO is robbed from the NSIDC here but with your own mistakes added in.
Your data on solar activity stolen directly from Lanscheidts page http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/270

And so on, and so on.

At the very least, it's extremely poor form and far from being up to the level of responsibility and respect of a professional forecaster.

Hang your head in shame sir.

nice snowy scene on this webcam from krakow, http://www.krakow.pl/multimedialny_krakow/1849,artykul,wawel_i_zakole_wisly_.html

This is from Met Eireann....looking good from thursday onwards:D


THURSDAY: A cold and blustery day, with bright or sunny spells, but passing heavy showers also, chiefly affecting Atlantic counties (risk of hail and thunder). Highest temperatures just 6 to 8 degrees Celsius, with fresh and gusty westerly winds. There is the risk of wintry precipitation over mountains.

icesnowfrost wrote: »

that the glen of imaal id say u get snow there every winter

Not every year but on a couple of occasions got stuck in the glen, car stuck that is, and just out on the main road, there was nothing!!
honestly if you saw the size of the glen you would laugh, however it does create my own little microclimate...

It went down to -5.4 °C in Katesbridge yesterday.
Its 3c here at the moment and seen some very small flakes falling. Nice.

There was a hail shower here in Down on Friday lunchtime. Its fairly typical at this time of year. The last hail showers were in April, about four or five over a few days. Hail is to be expected at anytime over the next 6 months regardless of the weather forecast.

It always snows every year in this part of the world, it is guaranteed during the November to early March period. That is the difference I think between the Ulster region and the areas further south. There is always weeks or months of it on the hills and mountains, no matter how mild the year it has never not snowed up there. There is normally snow at christmas time, Slieve Donard, which can be seen from many miles away, often looks like a christmas pudding with cream on it!

Snow amounts are variable if you are near the coast. There you may not have much, or in some cases if you are right on the sea, may not have any snow lying in a given year, even when the interior has had heavy snowfalls, the lakes have all frozen and it is hitting -15C! 2009 is a good example of this when there was no snow and amazingly no sub zero temperatures in areas of the coast. But there will always be a few flakes falling sometimes and it is common enough at the coast to have light snow showers between dusk and dawn which don't lie and give people the idea there has been no snow. You only see this if you are driving at night though it can be disconcerting as it tends to be very fine flakes that can lead to a temporary white out where you can only see a few meters ahead.

The good thing about guaranteed snow, apart from not have to worry if it will arrive (!), is that when there is a lot of snow people are used to it, they can drive properly in bad conditions, all the shops open, the vast majority of public transport runs, and the airports keep flights operating (though flights to closed airports are delayed).

The gritters are on 24 hour call out from October to April and have already started their season according to UTV. The gritting crews work long 12 hour shifts in bad weather and do a great job of keeping the main routes clear. The black ice season is longer than the snow season which is why they operate for so long. In some places and in colder years black ice can form from September onwards and hang on till early May. Except for the Glenshane Pass which can have snow anytime out of summer, and has been known to have very rare 'freak' snowfalls and heavy hail within the summer period, of course they are light and do not last for long.

jeltz wrote: »

There was a hail shower here in Down on Friday lunchtime. Its fairly typical at this time of year. The last hail showers were in April, about four or five over a few days. Hail is to be expected at anytime over the next 6 months regardless of the weather forecast.

It always snows every year in this part of the world, it is guaranteed during the November to early March period. That is the difference I think between the Ulster region and the areas further south. There is always weeks or months of it on the hills and mountains, no matter how mild the year it has never not snowed up there. There is normally snow at christmas time, Slieve Donard, which can be seen from many miles away, often looks like a christmas pudding with cream on it!

Snow amounts are variable if you are near the coast. There you may not have much, or in some cases if you are right on the sea, may not have any snow lying in a given year, even when the interior has had heavy snowfalls, the lakes have all frozen and it is hitting -15C! 2009 is a good example of this when there was no snow and amazingly no sub zero temperatures in areas of the coast. But there will always be a few flakes falling sometimes and it is common enough at the coast to have light snow showers between dusk and dawn which don't lie and give people the idea there has been no snow. You only see this if you are driving at night though it can be disconcerting as it tends to be very fine flakes that can lead to a temporary white out where you can only see a few meters ahead.

The good thing about guaranteed snow, apart from not have to worry if it will arrive (!), is that when there is a lot of snow people are used to it, they can drive properly in bad conditions, all the shops open, the vast majority of public transport runs, and the airports keep flights operating (though flights to closed airports are delayed).

The gritters are on 24 hour call out from October to April and have already started their season according to UTV. The gritting crews work long 12 hour shifts in bad weather and do a great job of keeping the main routes clear. The black ice season is longer than the snow season which is why they operate for so long. In some places and in colder years black ice can form from September onwards and hang on till early May. Except for the Glenshane Pass which can have snow anytime out of summer, and has been known to have very rare 'freak' snowfalls and heavy hail within the summer period, of course they are light and do not last for long.

Hi Jeltz, what part of Canada did you say you lived in ? I have been there a number of times and have to admit I am impressed with the way they handle public transport etc when it snows. Although we don't get much snow in Britain and Ireland (some years we get none unless you are on top of mountain!!), we could do with learning from the Canadians if our winters get more severe into the future

D

Dafyduck wrote: »

Snow for uk and ire in the next week so joe basterdi says on his tweet ,he also is going for 1947 type winter

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/262721121399492608/photo/1?

I almost gave up on a cold winter this year,bring on snowfest 2012!!!