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Housing bubble starting to pop?

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Comments

  • #552
    Pa ElGrande
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,634 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    swords_96oodstreet.jpg

    Only asking €550,000

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • #553
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Pa ElGrande wrote:
    swords_96oodstreet.jpg

    Only asking €550,000


    for which the house or the car


  • #554
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    You could finance this home from...
    €2615 pm*
    With First Active

    *92% Mortgage for 25 years @ 3.8% APR Var


    Worth EVERY penny


  • #555
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    actually Im starting to get angry again
    these houses worth half a million are being bought up by people who can avail of interest only mortgages etc and then are being sold later at higher prices
    this has been going on for years and its about time it stopped
    ITS DISGUSTING
    People should be hung for this
    We killed and fought the British over land and now we do it to ourselves
    Any one else agree with a call for blood? goddamn my head is starting to melt at the thoughts of people gettin rich on others misery


  • #556
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    oh did I mention I want blood?


  • #557
    Sizzler
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,430 ✭✭✭Sizzler


    Pa ElGrande wrote:
    swords_96oodstreet.jpg

    Only asking €550,000

    Its in Malahide roysh, focking major potential roysh !

    Someone will buy that, gut it and have it back on the market in 12 mths for 700K and will get it :eek:


  • #558
    Shane™
    Closed Accounts Posts: 132 ✭✭Shane™


    faceman wrote:
    im still waiting on someone to actually tell me when (even closest year will do) property prices in dublin will go down, see my post from a few days ago.

    Sorry to quote myself, but your answer is in my post from a few days ago.
    me wrote:
    A) When did the bubble start?
    The seed was planted with the Celtic tiger

    B) When did you genuinely believe there was a bubble?
    March 06, outbid third time in a row by investors, looked like a pyramid scheme TBO

    C) When did you start to believe it will burst? (Honestly!)
    After the first SSIA's came out, went form a trong to just me, outbid by 30k to me offering the asking price with only the auctioneer bidding against me (property still on market)

    D) When is it going to 'pop'?
    After the SSIA's have drained from the market (August 07)

    E) Provide a definition of your understanding of the word 'pop' please..
    Lots of heartache for lots of people, basically a lapse in confidence followed by about a year of uncertainty, then outbidding in the opposite direction.
    faceman wrote:
    inflated prices in property, yeah no secret. house price inflation starting to slow. yep no secrets there. negative equity for most homeowners on the cards. me thinks not. Interest rates expected to rise for years to come? Nope, some speculate that a decrease could be on the cards as early as late '07. Its all swings and roundabouts and maggie thatcher's not running the country. Im sure no one disagrees that the price of petrol is well overinflated too. Maybe i shud buy a petrol station?

    now leave me alone im off to invest in polish call centres!!

    Do you want to back up any of your arguments?

    From what I can see the people here who refute a correction in the property market cannot make a single argument for their beliefs, (sizzler and belly especially!) there were a few bulls a couple of months back with good arguments but from the last comments I read from those guys they had changed their minds.

    I wonder do any of these bulls own more than one property?


  • #559
    Captain Trips
    Closed Accounts Posts: 944 ✭✭✭Captain Trips


    I've seen several places even a year ago that had price drops from the original asking prices, just to get people interested.

    Good locations will always be good locations - if you insist on having a three bed house over a one bed flat, than location *will* have a major effect, crash or no crash. Malahide will always be a good area, and attract high prices, as will Blackrock, or anywhere on the N11 "corridor" of Donnybrook, Mount Merrion, Booterstown, Stillorgan, etc., .

    Three bed in Athlone, gateway to Dublin, will be risky.

    The properties I've seen reduced though werein IFSC and Temple Bar.


  • #560
    SimpleSam06
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,048 ✭✭✭SimpleSam06


    Deleted User wrote:
    Any one else agree with a call for blood? goddamn my head is starting to melt at the thoughts of people gettin rich on others misery
    Well I don't know about blood, but I think the ignorance of the merely fortunate should not go unanswered. Well, maybe we could bleed a few bankers. And I've had my eye on a couple of politicians for a while now. Not to mention those twisted estate agents. Brown envelope deveopers. Flippers and specuvestors next. :D

    Those muppets one and all have flushed this country's mid term future down the swanny, and are sniffing coke off the proverbial lady of easy virtue's mammaries as we speak. Still, on a more positive note, we will at least serve as a cautionary tale to other developing countries, so its not all bad.


  • #561
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Sizzler wrote:

    For those of you not from the Galway area Doughiska is probably one of the biggest skips the city has known in many a year and the reason people cant sell their houses in that area is simply because the area has acclaimed a reputation now for being an out and out sh1thole.

    There are areas like this in every Irish city, its like me saying...Theres 5 gaffs up for sale in Darndale in Dublin that have for sale signs on them for the past 6 mths....or theres 3 gaffs in St.Mary's Park in Limerick etc etc.

    Its more like Lucan than Darndale , there is almost no public housing but its the first high density private housing area built (all post 2000) .

    Its also , being post 2000, full of flippers and empties owned by flippers :D
    Faceman wrote:
    Also to prove you wrong i rang some galway auctioneers today with a pretend address in doughiksa and my business was not refused. I invite anyone else to try.

    I rang up 2 long established auctioneers in Galway. Lets call them OJ !

    1st I named an address in Shantalla and I had to bate them away, they were going to hop in the car and come straight out to me but I eventually calmed them down.

    2nd call to each I named an address in Doughiska (southern end not Castle Park end) . In each case the response was 'come in to discuss it'.

    The lack of enthusiasm for the task of selling in Doughiska was duly noted.

    Each has a few out there on there lists already.


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  • #562
    dochasach
    Registered Users Posts: 180 ✭✭dochasach


    Sizzler wrote:
    Its in Malahide roysh, focking major potential roysh !

    Someone will buy that, gut it and have it back on the market in 12 mths for 700K and will get it :eek:

    "What's wrong with that house?" That's what a 3-year-old said when walking past that boarded up derelict house, as men were clearing it out with shovels.

    She obviously has more sense than adult investors around here.

    Anyone planning on "fixing" this up for 500k and selling it for 700k had better start hunting for a greater fool now. There are decent homes in Malahide in the 500s which have been for sale for a while now. This one was on the market long (4 months?) before it appeared on the web. BTW to whoever mentioned the financing options which would give a payment of 2400, keep in mind that on a good day your rent yield would be -50% every month.
    (O.K. I'm misusing the term 'rent yield', basically rent would only cover about half your outlay, not including maintenance. Of course it doesn't look like this house would require any maintenance. ;-)


  • #563
    faceman
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,649 CMod ✭✭✭✭faceman


    Shane&#8482 wrote:

    Do you want to back up any of your arguments?

    From what I can see the people here who refute a correction in the property market cannot make a single argument for their beliefs, (sizzler and belly especially!) there were a few bulls a couple of months back with good arguments but from the last comments I read from those guys they had changed their minds.

    I wonder do any of these bulls own more than one property?

    chief, myself and even some of my debating adverseries have been reading the newspapers and news online. If you read the business section and the FULL articles on inflation rates rather than the first paragraph, there are plenty of recent examples where comments about future decreases in interest rates are made. Im not quoting any, you'll find them quite easily in the recent rte news archives.

    with regards to comments on bulls providing arguments on why we dont see a correction in the property market, you obviously havent been reading the thread. again even my adverseries will agree. whether you chose to agree with the comments is an entirely different story.

    just for the record, here is my theory (which is all any of us have at the end of the day). House price inflation will slowly correct itself (note, assuming the government does nothing in the budget to hinder property investment) but will not get in a position of negative growth in most of the main business areas in ireland. i.e. dublin, cork, galway. in a few years time i expect house price inflation to be at a level of 1-3% p.a. I dont predict doom and gloom that others predict. What is my theory based on? In summary (and its already been debated before and no one won so dont start again)

    * high demand for property in dublin due to it being ireland's only CBD (Central business district). Its not like if people get pissed off with high property prices that they will move to cavan for better paid jobs...(in comparision the uk has a number of CBD's)
    * only so much land in the country and even less people willing to zone land without a brown envelope...
    * high immigration and low emmigration
    * low unemployment
    * baby boom generation will last for another few years
    * property will always be a long term investment
    * interest rates will always flucuate up and down.
    * banks are greedy and will always have attractive mortgage packages
    * without the use of hyberbole - owning your own house is a million times better than renting. Its your own place etc.
    * paying rent is "dead money"

    I wouldnt be surprised if the government increases stamp duty threshold for FTB's either this year or next which is good for FTB's.

    PS. i nearly fell off my chair when i read some of yesterday's posts. was it just me or did Sizzler and Pa ElGrande almost agree on something yesterday? Surely not? :eek:


  • #564
    JimmySmith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 556 ✭✭✭JimmySmith


    Sponge Bob wrote:
    If you ring around some of the big auctioneers in Galway today and say you are thinking of selling in Doughiska they will refuse your bizniess because they have a 'pipeline' of their mates gaffs to sell first.

    By the time they get 'around' to you ...next year..... it will be too late.

    So they refused then.
    Sponge Bob wrote:
    IIn each case the response was 'come in to discuss it'.

    So they didnt refuse then?

    Which is it?


  • #565
    SimpleSam06
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,048 ✭✭✭SimpleSam06


    Well fair play to you, this is the first cogent list of bullish reasons I have seen so far in this entire debate. Now if you can back them up with links to trustworthy sources, we have a debate.
    faceman wrote:
    * high demand for property in dublin due to it being ireland's only CBD (Central business district). Its not like if people get pissed off with high property prices that they will move to cavan for better paid jobs...(in comparision the uk has a number of CBD's)
    The traditional response was, I believe, to emigrate.
    faceman wrote:
    * only so much land in the country and even less people willing to zone land without a brown envelope...
    96% of Ireland's land is not used for residential property purposes. We aren't running out of land, and we will almost certainly never run out of land.
    faceman wrote:
    * high immigration and low emmigration
    Immigrants, as discussed exhaustively in this thread, are not buying houses here for the most part. You buy a house somewhere you mean to stay for a good while. Why in the name of god would they want to chain themselves to a 35 year mortgage, in a place where their native language isn't spoken? This is just more EA bollocks intended to push the wheezing horse another few feet up the hill.
    faceman wrote:
    * low unemployment
    We have two major employers closing soon in the Galway region alone; one is well known the other not so much. American corporations are going elsewhere now their tax breaks are drying up. Intel, Dell, Microsoft.
    faceman wrote:
    * baby boom generation will last for another few years
    Before what, they die?
    faceman wrote:
    * property will always be a long term investment
    That assumes you can hold on to it in the face of rising interest rates. And even then, it doesn't make it a good long term investment. And thats just in financial terms; frankly I find the purchase of residential property as a vehicle for profit to be ethically dubious at best, and a serious menace to society at worst.
    faceman wrote:
    * interest rates will always flucuate up and down.
    Yes, and when they go down, banks like to leap in and offer huge sums for a low repayment price. When they go up, people lose their homes and go bankrupt.
    faceman wrote:
    * banks are greedy and will always have attractive mortgage packages
    Well that can't be denied. Thats why we have regulators to keep them under control. After this house of cards comes crashing down, I believe they will be getting a rap on the knuckles they will be a long, long time forgetting.
    faceman wrote:
    * without the use of hyberbole - owning your own house is a million times better than renting. Its your own place etc.
    True, but it has nothing to do with the massive price increases over the last 5 years.
    faceman wrote:
    * paying rent is "dead money"
    So is paying interest on a house. And right now, rent for nearly everywhere is less than interest repayments, and this is in a low interest rate period. You have to pay even more if you want to reduce your mortgage.


  • #566
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    JimmySmith wrote:
    So they refused then.

    Yes. They refused to come out to see it so they did not really want it on their books. Had they wanted it on their books they would have offered to come out to see it.


  • #567
    Sizzler
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,430 ✭✭✭Sizzler


    Sponge Bob wrote:
    Yes. They refused to come out to see it so they did not really want it on their books. Had they wanted it on their books they would have offered to come out to see it.
    Yeah but Jimmy already said he called an estate agents and they at no time refuse to engage in selling his property, so obviously some agents are fussier than others ;)


  • #568
    Sizzler
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,430 ✭✭✭Sizzler


    Shane&#8482 wrote:

    From what I can see the people here who refute a correction in the property market cannot make a single argument for their beliefs, (sizzler and belly especially!) there were a few bulls a couple of months back with good arguments but from the last comments I read from those guys they had changed their minds.

    I wonder do any of these bulls own more than one property?

    Erm, I have never said there won't be a correction on the property market, what I have done is tried to tease out peoples understanding of what they believe a 'correction' is. Predicting price crashes of 30-40% on the average 3 bed semi is BS, so you can use whatever graphs and stats you like because ultimately it wont happen and you will never be able to back it up because like Ive said many times before the likes of the PR dudes from Ulster Bank / BOI etc constantly find themselves backtracking but they persist as they have to get it right sometime ;) They and you are ultimately guessing....its like backing horses, the form book is there to back it up but more often than not it doesnt work out the way you think.


  • #569
    gamer
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,227 ✭✭✭gamer


    if prices go down by 20percent,it wont really affect people who have a mortgage,just the professional investors,cos if you wanna move or buy a house they will be cheaper,houses in small areas like dalkey ,donnybrook,will always be expensive ,because demand is high and supply is limited in certain areas,and theres no new houses being built apart from apartment.if the price of a 500k house in dalkey go,s down to 450 k, it doesnt affect the average person just looking for somewhere to live.


  • #570
    gamer
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,227 ✭✭✭gamer


    you can lose your home without going bankrupt,ie just sell it and pay off mortgage ,if you think the mortgage is too expensive.you have the rental option.


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  • #571
    faceman
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,649 CMod ✭✭✭✭faceman


    See my responses below in chief. Btw, why not outline your theory rather than using metaphors. What exactly do you predict will happen in the irish property market and when? It would help if we knew your stance.
    SimpleSam06 wrote:
    Well fair play to you, this is the first cogent list of bullish reasons I have seen so far in this entire debate. Now if you can back them up with links to trustworthy sources, we have a debate.

    I get most of my info from the daily newspapers, estate agents, my financial advisor and my solicitor. Plus my own education.
    SimpleSam06 wrote:
    The traditional response was, I believe, to emigrate.

    We dont have the same level of emmigration as we did decades ago thanks to Charlie and the growth in the job market. CSO has stats on emmigration rates which back this up. I think we are still considered to have a "full" employment rate in econmic terms.
    SimpleSam06 wrote:
    96% of Ireland's land is not used for residential property purposes. We aren't running out of land, and we will almost certainly never run out of land.

    ok so, why isnt another housing estate being built in my back field? Oh yeah, zoning and brown envelopes.
    SimpleSam06 wrote:
    Immigrants, as discussed exhaustively in this thread, are not buying houses here for the most part. You buy a house somewhere you mean to stay for a good while. Why in the name of god would they want to chain themselves to a 35 year mortgage, in a place where their native language isn't spoken? This is just more EA bollocks intended to push the wheezing horse another few feet up the hill.

    Tell that the multicultural society that is the UK. 20% of FTB's in Ireland are non national and that figure is growing and we all know how ireland is more and more becoming a multicultural society where foreign nationals are moving to ireland to make a living. Considering that recent newspaper articles showed that alot of foreign nationals send money home to family, however what the articles did state is that its actually tax deductable. Its naive to think that most foreign nationals are here for a overlong working holiday.
    SimpleSam06 wrote:
    We have two major employers closing soon in the Galway region alone; one is well known the other not so much. American corporations are going elsewhere now their tax breaks are drying up. Intel, Dell, Microsoft.

    Which employers are closing? How many people do they employ? How many job opportunties are due to be created in galway in the next 12 months? Job losses hit the headlines, job opportunities are not as big news stories.
    SimpleSam06 wrote:
    Before what, they die?

    I presume by your smart answer you concede on this point.
    SimpleSam06 wrote:
    That assumes you can hold on to it in the face of rising interest rates. And even then, it doesn't make it a good long term investment. And thats just in financial terms; frankly I find the purchase of residential property as a vehicle for profit to be ethically dubious at best, and a serious menace to society at worst.

    Considering as a long term investment you can live in it, or rent it out (which covers most of your recurring monthly investment cost) its a darn good investment. I take it you will never buy property or indeed own your own home?
    SimpleSam06 wrote:
    Yes, and when they go down, banks like to leap in and offer huge sums for a low repayment price. When they go up, people lose their homes and go bankrupt.

    Back this statement up with sources please, its tosh. How many people were declared bankrupt in ireland in the last 12 months? less than 10 as far as i remember.
    SimpleSam06 wrote:
    Well that can't be denied. Thats why we have regulators to keep them under control. After this house of cards comes crashing down, I believe they will be getting a rap on the knuckles they will be a long, long time forgetting.

    What do you mean "house of cards comes crashing down?"
    SimpleSam06 wrote:
    True, but it has nothing to do with the massive price increases over the last 5 years.

    Whats your argument here?
    SimpleSam06 wrote:
    So is paying interest on a house. And right now, rent for nearly everywhere is less than interest repayments, and this is in a low interest rate period. You have to pay even more if you want to reduce your mortgage.

    Of course but when the demand for rent goes up rents go up. No different than house price inflation!

    Oh My God, my good friend SimpleSam06 has unknowingly discovered an inverted bubble in the rental market. With the impending doom in the property market, this will push people in the rental market thus pushing up rent!!! How long will the good times last renting???? Better warn those students!! we shall call it the ticking rental timebomb! When will it go off??


  • #572
    faceman
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,649 CMod ✭✭✭✭faceman


    gamer wrote:
    you can lose your home without going bankrupt,ie just sell it and pay off mortgage ,if you think the mortgage is too expensive.you have the rental option.

    you can also avail of rent a room schemes or consolidate your debts.


  • #573
    SimpleSam06
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,048 ✭✭✭SimpleSam06


    gamer wrote:
    you can lose your home without going bankrupt,ie just sell it and pay off mortgage ,if you think the mortgage is too expensive.you have the rental option.
    Hey, guess what? If you have a mortgage for 300k, and you can't sell your house for more than 200k, thats 100k you owe the bank, plus interest. And you have no house. This is the third damn time I've posted this in this thread, will people just read the entire thread before lepping in with their drawers around their ankles.


  • #574
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    SimpleSam06 wrote:
    Hey, guess what? If you have a mortgage for 300k, and you can't sell your house for more than 200k, thats 100k you owe the bank, plus interest. And you have no house. This is the third damn time I've posted this in this thread, will people just read the entire thread before lepping in with their drawers around their ankles.


    and as demographics change we are going to have a massive surplus of apartments as people have families etc
    unless we can somehow turn around our competitiveness


  • #575
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    oh and we are seriously not gonna run out of land here
    farming here is in reality uneconomic only kept going by trade laws
    how could we compete with countries such as Thailand whose climate allow them to have FOUR harvests a year
    Remember Geldof and Bono are campaigning for Free Trade
    and after all we are artificially keeping these countries poor for our gain

    No land Shortage here
    the population was 8million plus in the past


  • #576
    SimpleSam06
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,048 ✭✭✭SimpleSam06


    faceman wrote:
    I get most of my info from the daily newspapers, estate agents, my financial advisor and my solicitor. Plus my own education.
    Well when you have a link to one of their websites, do put it up, otherwise you are just dropping anecdotes and opinions all over the place, which are worse than useless. This thread is rife with bearish links but not a bullish link in sight, which makes me believe the bearish arguments more. I try to keep an open mind on everything; if I feel your arguments hold water, I will adjust my outlook on the situation accordingly.
    faceman wrote:
    We dont have the same level of emmigration as we did decades ago thanks to Charlie and the growth in the job market. CSO has stats on emmigration rates which back this up. I think we are still considered to have a "full" employment rate in econmic terms.
    Yes that accurately describes the situation in Ireland today. It does not, however, accurately describe it in the future, which is what I thought we were talking about here.
    faceman wrote:
    ok so, why isnt another housing estate being built in my back field? Oh yeah, zoning and brown envelopes.
    Want to see how fast that changes if the public gets it into their heads that they want it to? There is no logical, physical, logistical reason why most of that land couldn't be used for housing. The rest is just red tape.
    faceman wrote:
    Tell that the multicultural society that is the UK. 20% of FTB's in Ireland are non national and that figure is growing and we all know how ireland is more and more becoming a multicultural society where foreign nationals are moving to ireland to make a living.
    Okay you obviously missed the bulletin about the source of that 20% figure. See what happens when you don't read the entire thread? And why on earth are you comparing us to the UK? They are the heart of what was a global empire for several hundred years, their situation is COMPLETELY different.
    faceman wrote:
    Considering that recent newspaper articles showed that alot of foreign nationals send money home to family, however what the articles did state is that its actually tax deductable. Its naive to think that most foreign nationals are here for a overlong working holiday.
    I've never heard of any tax deduction like that, and I'm fairly sure it doesn't exist. If they are sending money home, they will sooner or later follow it. Anything else is dreaming.
    faceman wrote:
    Which employers are closing? How many people do they employ? How many job opportunties are due to be created in galway in the next 12 months? Job losses hit the headlines, job opportunities are not as big news stories.
    Medtronic for one, and another one I know of but which I am not allowed to talk about, but which is significantly larger.
    faceman wrote:
    I presume by your smart answer you concede on this point.
    You can presume that if you like, but it still doesn't change that I was unclear what your original point was.
    faceman wrote:
    Considering as a long term investment you can live in it, or rent it out (which covers most of your recurring monthly investment cost) its a darn good investment. I take it you will never buy property or indeed own your own home?
    Renting it out doesn't cover your monthly costs these days; it doesn't even cover the interest portion of most mortgages. I think its a very good idea to buy and own a house. I think investing in property for financial gain is both unwise economically (except in certain boom situations) and ethically foul.
    faceman wrote:
    Back this statement up with sources please, its tosh. How many people were declared bankrupt in ireland in the last 12 months? less than 10 as far as i remember.
    Not too many thats true. But then again we aren't talking about the last 12 months are we. We are talking about the coming years.
    faceman wrote:
    What do you mean "house of cards comes crashing down?"
    Fundamentals. These are important. Things like supply, demand. They are dependable and don't change much, or change slowly. If your fundamentals are good, you aren't too badly off. 6 years ago, the fundamentals of the property market in Ireland were good. Easy credit due to low interest rates, speculation and sentiment. These are what the market here is currently built on, and any one of those elements could change very rapidly indeed. So the fundamentals are not solid. Its a house of cards.
    faceman wrote:
    Whats your argument here?
    The joy of owning your own house is not the reason the property market has spiralled out of control in this country. The reasons for that are outlined above.
    faceman wrote:
    Of course but when the demand for rent goes up rents go up. No different than house price inflation!
    If you are having trouble keeping up the payments on your mortgage, you might decide that its not too much trouble to take in renters after all. 275,000 + houses sitting empty. There is already an oversupply in properties for rent. This oversupply leads to lower rental prices, not higher.
    faceman wrote:
    Oh My God, my good friend SimpleSam06 has unknowingly discovered an inverted bubble in the rental market. With the impending doom in the property market, this will push people in the rental market thus pushing up rent!!! How long will the good times last renting???? Better warn those students!! we shall call it the ticking rental timebomb! When will it go off??
    See, thats not helping your position at all.


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  • #577
    gamer
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,227 ✭✭✭gamer


    the average person buys house ,stays there for at least ten years be4 selling ,its best to think of a house as somewhere to live ,not as an investment.If house prices just went up by 5percent a year it would be better for the economy,there are to many tax reliefs in place to encourage investors,i think.


  • #578
    bounty
    Closed Accounts Posts: 978 ✭✭✭bounty


    if these weasel investors had their way, there would be a water or electricity price bubble next

    those inside track seminars are full of those weasel types


  • #579
    Amazotheamazing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,048 ✭✭✭Amazotheamazing


    SimpleSam06 wrote:
    Medtronic for one, and another one I know of but which I am not allowed to talk about, but which is significantly larger.


    .


    Woah, woah ,woah, where did you hear Medtronic are closing? Please PM me if you can't say it publicly.

    That would be a ****ing disaster for Galway.


  • #580
    SimpleSam06
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,048 ✭✭✭SimpleSam06


    Amazotheamazing wrote:
    Woah, woah ,woah, where did you hear Medtronic are closing? Please PM me if you can't say it publicly.

    That would be a ****ing disaster for Galway.
    Err on this thread, just go back a few pages. Take it with a pinch of salt if you like. The other one is bigger though, and I'm not PMing anyone about it.


  • #581
    Amazotheamazing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,048 ✭✭✭Amazotheamazing


    SimpleSam06 wrote:
    Err on this thread, just go back a few pages. Take it with a pinch of salt if you like. The other one is bigger though, and I'm not PMing anyone about it.

    Fair enough, just happened on this thread through the active topics screen, will read back and find out more. Thanks.


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  • #582
    chump
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,807 ✭✭✭chump


    gamer wrote:
    the average person buys house ,stays there for at least ten years be4 selling ,its best to think of a house as somewhere to live ,not as an investment.If house prices just went up by 5percent a year it would be better for the economy,there are to many tax reliefs in place to encourage investors,i think.

    I don't think anyone would disagree with you with this, but unfortunately this is not the case and is borne out by stats again and again. Investors/speculators have had a hugeee impact on the market - and if they run scared there will be trouble. They are the people who will shape the market.


  • #583
    faceman
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,649 CMod ✭✭✭✭faceman


    Simplesam not going to start another thread of debate with you but im still unclear on your house of cards analogy. What EXACTLY is your theory and beliefs on the property market? Your counter debates to mine dont summarise it. You actually have correct some "bears" too on the thread so im a tad confused. Also you're the first person on this thread to agree with my original comments that you cant compare ireland to the uk! Thanks! Altho multicultural ireland is here to stay. Without given my personal details and background, altho i dont always provide links to all statements i make, i dont make them up. whether you chose to believe is your own choice. As henry rollins says, "know your enemy". Most of my statements can be investigated quite easily online.

    YOu are correct on a point above that people seem to forget. Its not financially viable to jump ship if house prices go into negative equity.
    Blindjustice, as simplesam says what would the point of selling a 300k house for 200k owing the bank 100k and then having to pay rent too??? There wont be a surplus of properties to the degree some predict.

    Re my comments about foreign nationals claiming tax relief on funds they send oversear, i dont have link. It was on the radio as part of the Revenues new policy of letting everyone know their rights. Some of you may not know that you can claim tax relief on money you give your parents if you live at home and it can be backdated a number of years. My mate actually did it after hearing it on the radio. Got about 2k backdated. Anyone who doubts me can ring the tax office and confirm.

    OK a bit cheeky of me commenting on your discovery of an inverted rental bubble but it is a new discussion point not really brought up before. For those of you interested i posted a thread and poll in Accommodation forum on how house price inflation will impact rents.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054988720#

    would be interested in getting some of your opinions.


  • #584
    SimpleSam06
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,048 ✭✭✭SimpleSam06


    faceman wrote:
    Most of my statements can be investigated quite easily online.
    Well generally speaking, the burden of proof is on the person making the claims, not those disputing them. If you claim something its not up to us to discover its veracity. It is, however, our prerogative to dismiss it out of hand since there is no third party evidence. As to my overall position, I have to admit I'm not sure what you mean here. The indicators and evidence seem to point largely to a serious drop in property value in Ireland in the near future. If the evidence pointed towards a soft landing or increasing house prices for the next few years, thats the position I would have to take.
    faceman wrote:
    YOu are correct on a point above that people seem to forget. Its not financially viable to jump ship if house prices go into negative equity.
    Yes but another point people seem to miss is that it might not be financially viable to hold on to property, what with IO mortgages and rising interest rates. A lot of people may be forced to jump ship whether they want to or not, and take the damage that comes with that.
    faceman wrote:
    Got about 2k backdated. Anyone who doubts me can ring the tax office and confirm.
    Burden of proof again; I did some googling there, and the only things I could find were tax deductions for charity. Why the taxman would allow deductions for cash flowing out of the country, for what is at the end of the day personal use, just doesn't make sense. The only way you could justify that would be if you claimed you were investing in a business back home or something, and that would be fraud. Otherwise I could just send all my income to some of the people I know abroad, and have them western union it back to me, the easiest money laundering scheme in history.


  • #585
    faceman
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,649 CMod ✭✭✭✭faceman


    SimpleSam06 wrote:
    Burden of proof again; I did some googling there, and the only things I could find were tax deductions for charity. Why the taxman would allow deductions for cash flowing out of the country, for what is at the end of the day personal use, just doesn't make sense. The only way you could justify that would be if you claimed you were investing in a business back home or something, and that would be fraud. Otherwise I could just send all my income to some of the people I know abroad, and have them western union it back to me, the easiest money laundering scheme in history.

    Ring the tax office. Im not making it up! If you prove me wrong you can shame me online (and sizzler) and i will never post again!
    :cool:


  • #586
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    In census 2002 there were 170,000 empties
    In census 2006 there were 275,000 empties

    In the intervening five years and despite huge immigration we spent over a whole year simply simply building and then buying empties . Are we not great :D


  • #587
    SimpleSam06
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,048 ✭✭✭SimpleSam06


    faceman wrote:
    Ring the tax office. Im not making it up! If you prove me wrong you can shame me online (and sizzler) and i will never post again!
    :cool:
    Well burden of proof means you have to prove yourself right. Until then I'm afraid I have to discard your comments as hearsay. And in any case, most immigrants aren't buying houses, which is the whole point of this discussion. Since we're raising the stakes however, you give me one link not from the IMC or from groups reporting the IMC "findings" to state they are buying houses, and I'll give you three links to state they are not.


  • #588
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Very firm , all checked a few times and then marked empty, not on holidays or away somewhere , there were 25000 of them too.

    Many were holiday homes or tax scheme houses in Leitrim, lets say 20000, we still built 80000 houese that are not tax designated (and empty for a reason) but simply empty, one whole years worth of building in five just to keep them empty.


  • #589
    Pa ElGrande
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,634 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    Sponge Bob wrote:
    Very firm , all checked a few times and then marked empty, not on holidays or away somewhere , there were 25000 of them too.

    Many were holiday homes or tax scheme houses in Leitrim, lets say 20000, we still built 80000 houese that are not tax designated (and empty for a reason) but simply empty, one whole years worth of building in five just to keep them empty.

    According to the IBF/PwC report there were 67,588 first time buyers and residential investment mortages drawn down in the last 4 quarters and the department of enviroment statistics would indicate approx. 89,549 new units were built in that same time period. You can't say this indicates oversupply 100%, since not all factors governing house purchases can be measured easily.

    The PwC report also shows a decline in the number of FTB's taking mortgages for the first 2 quarters of this year, this downward trend is likely to continue unless the SSIA money acts as a cushion, the government extends the stamp duty band as requested by the banks or house prices start reducing to reflect the increased supply.

    IBF/PwC Mortgage Market Profile - New Lending - Quarterly Report
    http://www.ibf.ie/pdfs/ibf_pwc_mortgage.pdf

    Housing Statistics
    http://www.environ.ie/DOEI/DOEIPub.nsf/wvNavView/RegularPublications?OpenDocument&Lang=en#I2

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • #590
    the butcher
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 591 ✭✭✭the butcher


    http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060910/RE/609100315/1076


  • #591
    Pa ElGrande
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,634 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    the butcher wrote:
    http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060910/RE/609100315/1076

    HERNDON, Va. — For years, real estate brokers and home builders promised that the soaring property market eventually would glide to a soft landing. These optimists predicted that home prices, which had more than doubled in parts of the country between 2000 and 2005, would continue to rise, but at a more normal pace of 5 percent or 6 percent a year

    The economists (Ireland's new high priest's) are predicting between 3% and 7% growth next year and a soft landing after that.
    Then mortgage rates began rising and surging inventories of homes for sale finally caught up with demand. Though economists had been predicting a slowdown in housing for years, many homeowners and builders were surprised by how fast the market changed.

    "It's just like somebody flipped a switch," says Lynn Gardner, a real estate auctioneer who works in Northern Virginia    .

    "It would be difficult to characterize the position of home builders as other than in a hard landing," says Robert Toll, chief executive of luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc., which reported last week that net income fell 19 percent in the third quarter ended July 31.

    In his 40 years as a home builder, Toll says, he has never seen a slump unfold like the current one. "I've never seen a downturn in housing without a downturn in employment or ... some macroeconomic nasty condition that took housing down along with other elements of the economy," he said. "This time, you've got low unemployment, you've got job creation, you've got a stable stock market and relatively low interest rates."

    A couple of things have combined to make this happened, since 2000 the average income has not kept pace with house price inflation, and they have borrowed against "perceived" increase in value of their homes, so called "mortgage equity withdrawal" or top-up mortgages in Irish bank speak to the extent they've been in negative savings for the past few months. Post 2001 when interest rates were dropped to historic lows and oil prices were lower, house prices took off mainly in coastal cities. American lending instituitions loosened their lending criteria and introduced new products like adjustable rate mortgages (ARM's), like 100% io mortages here in Ireland. Most jobs growth in the US over the past few years has come from construction.
    There is also a massive keeping ahead of the Jones culture there (It's here too), which means it your neighbour buys a Sports Utility Vechicle (SUV), you got to have one as well and this has driven the American auto industry combined with easy finance deals.
    Its 2006, interest rates have risen 17 times in quick order (still low by historic standards) and petrol prices have become really expensive by American experience. The introductory low interest rates on ARM's have expired.
    Remember their income has not really grown in the last 5 years, all these factors have combined to create the current situation.

    Question: Ireland is different how?
    • Longest running boom ever recorded by the OECD
    • Heavy involvement of speculators in the property market
    • Obsession with foreign property, failing to take into account local economic conditions and prospects.
      We are leveraging our own property in Ireland to fund these adventures and projecting Irish growth rates to this.
    • Large number of unoccupied units across the country.
    • Construction and public sector have been the jobs engine for the last five years.
    • A record 90,000+ units due for completion this year.
    • Migration of manufacturing eastwards, with some major employers lining up to move.
    • Construction sector funded by debt.
    • Government revenue growth dependent of construction.
    • Lack of growth in income tax receipts despite more people that ever working that ever before (i.e. wages are not growing fast)
    • Average of 10% per annum house price inflation
    • Banks getting creative with their lending criteria (35 year and even 40 year mortgages, 100%, i/o mortgages)
    • Banks securitising loans
    • Record personal debt levels that continue to increase.
    • Ireland rated just behind Azerbaijan as country most vulnerable to sudden economic shocks.

    We've all been sold the idea of a soft landing (house prices growth will remain flat or grow at levels in line with income growth) and most of our chief priest's repeat the same mantra, to the extent that it has become an article of faith among the believers, and any non believer is attacked and derided in the same manner that religion is defended.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



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  • #592
    faceman
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,649 CMod ✭✭✭✭faceman


    SimpleSam06 wrote:
    Well burden of proof means you have to prove yourself right. Until then I'm afraid I have to discard your comments as hearsay. And in any case, most immigrants aren't buying houses, which is the whole point of this discussion. Since we're raising the stakes however, you give me one link not from the IMC or from groups reporting the IMC "findings" to state they are buying houses, and I'll give you three links to state they are not.

    Eh its not Primetime we're on mate. Believe what you want i dont give a toss. You STILL havent said what your belief on the property market is. Do you even have one? Are you waiting to see what happens and then say "i told you so"?


  • #593
    faceman
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,649 CMod ✭✭✭✭faceman


    Sponge Bob wrote:
    Very firm , all checked a few times and then marked empty, not on holidays or away somewhere , there were 25000 of them too.

    Many were holiday homes or tax scheme houses in Leitrim, lets say 20000, we still built 80000 houese that are not tax designated (and empty for a reason) but simply empty, one whole years worth of building in five just to keep them empty.

    Did you get these stats from the same auctioneers will only sell their mate's houses in galway so everyone else is screwed next year? lol


  • #594
    faceman
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,649 CMod ✭✭✭✭faceman


    Pa ElGrande wrote:
    According to the IBF/PwC report there were 67,588 first time buyers and residential investment mortages drawn down in the last 4 quarters and the department of enviroment statistics would indicate approx. 89,549 new units were built in that same time period. You can't say this indicates oversupply 100%, since not all factors governing house purchases can be measured easily.

    FTB's are not the only purchasers of new properties.


  • #595
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Pa ElGrande wrote:
    We've all been sold the idea of a soft landing (house prices growth will remain flat or grow at levels in line with income growth) and most of our chief priest's repeat the same mantra, to the extent that it has become an article of faith among the believers, and any non believer is attacked and derided in the same manner that religion is defended.

    Some areas will have a soft landing, redbrick Dublin for example . Other areas will simply implode with massive collapses in value of 50% or possibly more and chronic illiquidity.

    The most 'at risk' areas are ultra commuter belt places like Bunclody and Mountmellick and Castlepollard etc where the house prices bear no relationship to the local economy or local incomes but are cheap 'Dublin' houses in effect .

    The slump that will be felt 50 or 60 miles from Dublin will equally be felt 30-40 miles from Cork City and 20-30 miles from Galway and Limerick as their ultra commuter belts evaporate to all intents and purposes .

    This slump will lessen progressively as one gets closer to where the jobs really are and thats why it will be noticed least in D4 and places near a large selection of potential employers.
    faceman wrote:
    Did you get these stats from the same auctioneers

    The stats on empties (checked empties) come from the Central Statistics office .


  • #596
    faceman
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,649 CMod ✭✭✭✭faceman


    Sponge Bob wrote:
    Some areas will have a soft landing, redbrick Dublin for example . Other areas will simply implode with massive collapses in value of 50% or possibly more and chronic illiquidity.

    The most 'at risk' areas are ultra commuter belt places like Bunclody and Mountmellick and Castlepollard etc where the house prices bear no relationship to the local economy or local incomes but are cheap 'Dublin' houses in effect .

    The slump that will be felt 50 or 60 miles from Dublin will equally be felt 30-40 miles from Cork City and 20-30 miles from Galway and Limerick as their ultra commuter belts evaporate to all intents and purposes .

    This slump will lessen progressively as one gets closer to where the jobs really are and thats why it will be noticed least in D4 and places near a large selection of potential employers.



    The stats on empties (checked empties) come from the Central Statistics office .

    post links to your sources, otherwise this will be dismissed as hearsay. id love to know where you got your 50% drop from! (those same auctioneers again in galway??)


  • #597
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    faceman wrote:
    post links to your sources, otherwise this will be dismissed as hearsay.

    which bit of what I said , you are not exactly link central yourself :D
    id love to know where you got your 50% drop from! (those same auctioneers again in galway??)

    I'm a betting man and I am making the 50% prediction for selected areas based on my own observations of extreme commuter belt activity and demographic. The extreme commuter belt is extreme pyramid territory

    The incomes in the Midlands where much of this extreme commuter belt is are the lowest in Ireland, source the CSO again , not that I'm bothering linking it for you faceman :p .

    If I do link my sources will you either simply shut up or else link to your sources which are most likely property economists of some sort and therefore highly suspect.


  • #598
    SimpleSam06
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,048 ✭✭✭SimpleSam06


    faceman wrote:
    Eh its not Primetime we're on mate. Believe what you want i dont give a toss.
    Not unlike the market's feelings towards property investors, then? Saying that you don't care doesn't change reality, and sooner or later reality always catches up.
    faceman wrote:
    You STILL havent said what your belief on the property market is. Do you even have one? Are you waiting to see what happens and then say "i told you so"?
    You seem to have a semi-mystical approach here, the mysterious gods of the property market will keep you safe if your faith is strong enough sort of thing. I have already told you in very clear terms what my position is, and why I hold it. I don't believe, trust, or have faith in the property market, I analyse it from a financial perspective and from a social perspective, and draw my conclusions from that.


  • #599
    SimpleSam06
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,048 ✭✭✭SimpleSam06


    faceman wrote:
    post links to your sources, otherwise this will be dismissed as hearsay.

    I'll do the honours, so. Heres the Irish Independent story on it, which states that the CSO workers found 275,000 confirmed empties and a further 30,000 possible empties. I'm fairly sure this was already linked in this thread. You'll need to log in to see that, but you probably won't so here are the highlights:

    “Enumerators delivering and collecting the census forms were unable to contact the inhabitants. Following inquiries among neighbours, postmen and women and apartment block management companies, the vast majority of those dwellings - some 275,000 - were identified as being vacant. In a further 30,000 cases, there was nobody at home when census officials called on various occasions.”


  • #600
    antoinolachtnai
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,814 ✭✭✭antoinolachtnai


    So this is in the country overall? The vacancy rate is nothing like that in Dublin 2 where I live, or in Dublin 6, which I also know pretty well.


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  • #601
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    antoinolachtnai wrote:
    So this is in the country overall? The vacancy rate is nothing like that in Dublin 2 where I live, or in Dublin 6, which I also know pretty well.
    The closer you get to Dublin City Centre, the less vacancies you have. A lot of people bought/buy properties in the Dublin suburbs and the commuter belt as investments. They're also declared as owner-occupied, as this has all sorts of financial perks, and no-one bothers to check.
    I know of one apartment block in Knocklyon where four apartments are declared owner-occupied, but no-one lives there.


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