Weds 2nd Sept: Vuelta 2015 stage 11: Andorra la Vella – Cortals d’Encamp 138km

Inquitus · 31-08-2015 9:00pm #1

Going to put this up early because this stage has the potential to be a true epic. It packs in 5 climbs for a total of 5200m of ascent over just 138km which gives an average gradient of 3.8% even when you include the downhills!

It's by far the best chance for the pure climbers to gain the time they need to get through the lengthy TT in the final week. Froome, Dumoulin and Valverde just need to hold wheels here, the Quintana's, Aru's and Purito's of this world need to gain serious time.

I can't remember a stage as brutal as this at a GT, add into the mix the weather is supposed to be poor with thunderstorms forecast for the afternoon, and we should be in for quite a show. You'd think the time gaps could be huge here especially if they race some of the earlier climbs hard.

Froome has blown hot and cold, in the race and with the bookies, drifting out to 10/1 after he dropped time on the long climb up to La Alpujarras, the stage 7 summit finish, and rapidly came back in to 5/2 yesterday after besting all bar Dumoulin on the short super steep climb to Cumbre del Sol.

Quintana hasn't shown much to date bar stretching his legs on stage 2 before getting dropped by Roche, Chaves and Dumoulin. Based on his tour tactics if he has the form to win this race he'll have his team ride hard from the off and attack early on the final climb looking for a decisive gap.

If Dumoulin can get through Weds close to the main protagonists he will emerge as a potential victor, its hard to see it, but then it was also hard to see how he could ride away from the pure climbers on yesterdays ramp, so who knows what is possible. He does have previous on the big climbs this season, finishing the climb of the Rettenbachferner close enough to the climbers to show the long climbs are not beyond him.

Hard to see how Valverde can win the race as he hasn't featured prominently on the short, steep uphill finishes that play to his strength, even finishing behind Quintana yesterday, but he does TT better than some of his rivals so if he can stay in touch he remains a threat.

Aru looked strong on the climb to La Alpujarras, but is another poor TT'er so will need to find more time on stages like this to feature for overall victory.

GC odds as at today.

Winner
Nairo Quintana 2
Chris Froome 5/2
Fabio Aru 9/2
Alejandro Valverde 11
Tom Dumoulin 14

themandan6611 · 31-08-2015 9:46pm

EPIC stage awaits

dastardly00 · 31-08-2015 9:49pm

Anybody who has a bad rest day is completely fúcked for this stage.

retalivity · 31-08-2015 10:13pm

Sky generally come out flying after rest days...can see froome taking this, burning off any aspirations that roche, nieve and henao had...

Inquitus · 31-08-2015 10:17pm

retalivity wrote: »

Sky generally come out flying after rest days...can see froome taking this, burning off any aspirations that roche, nieve and henao had...

If Froome takes this he will win the race you'd think. I have my lingering doubts, his frailty on the stage 7 finale, which ordinarily plays to his strengths, leads me to believe his form is not as good as it might be. Unless he's improved alot between then and now he runs the risk of being dropped before the final ascent and shipping buckets of time.

MPFGLB · 31-08-2015 10:22pm

Nico Roche usually not good after a rest day ...He is also suffering from 2 crashes and hurts all over and because of his size and muscles the altitude will work against him.

But on the other hand SKY usually come out after the rest day and floor the opposition.

The speed and incline of this stage will be an issue but its the altitude that will make the difference IMO. Therefore should suit Quintana or Chaves . And of course Purito because he stage was partially designed for him (or at least with him in mind) and he trains on these roads

If a breakaway wins then team Columbia or Caja Rural could provide the rider

godtabh · 31-08-2015 10:24pm

MPFGLB wrote: »

Nico Roche usually not good after a rest day ...He is also suffering from 2 crashes and hurts all over and because of his size and muscles the altitude will work against him.

But on the other hand SKY usually come out after the rest day and floor the opposition.

The speed and incline of this sate will be an issue but its the altitude that will make the difference IMO. Therefore should suit Quintana or Chaves . And of course Purito because he stage was partially designed for him (or at least with him in mind) and he trains on these roads

If a breakaway wins then team Columbia or Caja Rural could provide the rider

Sky also didnt have to transfer for 6 hours on a bus today

MPFGLB · 31-08-2015 10:48pm

Another factor that could amke all the difference is the weather. Don't want to be the harbinger of doom and gloom but it was into Andorra in 2013 the Roche lost all that time as the weather changed from hot to cold.
But SKY probably have the situation all under control

GetWithIt · 31-08-2015 10:48pm

Nico looks the skinniest I've ever seen him. Can anyone say how his weight compares to previous Vuelta? I reckon he'll be ok.

In fact I'm calling it now.

Nico

F

T

W

Melodeon · 31-08-2015 10:50pm

Thanks to Inquitus for the preview!

Here are the VeloViewer 3D graphics of the climbs:

Km 9.8 - Collada de Beixalis, PM 1ª (Category 1)

Km 32.3 - Coll d'Ordino (Category 1)

Km 72.0 - Puerto de la Rabassa (Category 1)

Km 98.7 - Coll de la Gallina (Category H)

Km 119.6 - Alto de la Comella (Category 2)

Km 138.0 - Cortals de Encamp (Category 1)

And the GC following Stage 10:

I had all these already prepared, so I'm posting them whether ye like it or not!

dastardly00 · 31-08-2015 10:51pm

GetWithIt wrote: »

Nico looks the skinniest I've ever seen him. Can anyone say how his weight compares to previous Vuelta? I reckon he'll be ok.

Sky got him to put on weight for the TdF so I'd be surprised of he is at his lightest weight at the moment.

I think the 2013 Vuelta was the skinniest I have seen him.

Inquitus · 31-08-2015 10:55pm

Melodeon wrote: »

snip

Just looks like a truly brutal day in the saddle, seriously steep ramps in most of those climbs, with average gradients high as well, going to be riders all over the road, time limit has to be a factor, there will be guys out the back on the first climb you'd think.

godtabh · 31-08-2015 10:59pm

dastardly00 wrote: »

Sky got him to put on weight for the TdF so I'd be surprised of he is at his lightest weight at the moment.

I think the 2013 Vuelta was the skinniest I have seen him.

Why would sky ask him to put on weight?

MPFGLB · 31-08-2015 11:03pm

dastardly00 wrote: »

Sky got him to put on weight for the TdF so I'd be surprised of he is at his lightest weight at the moment.

I think the 2013 Vuelta was the skinniest I have seen him.

Yes lightest in 2013 ...I'd say he is about 68/69Kg

I think he is same as Dumoulin who is alot taller than him as Dumoulin lost 3kgs before the Vuelta

MPFGLB · 31-08-2015 11:10pm

godtabh wrote: »

Why would sky ask him to put on weight?

Because they wanted to use him on the flat and hillier stages and not in the mountians.

This was probably for an number of reasons
1. He had lost alot of weight at beginning of year but he had gotten sick before the Dauphine and earlier in spring at the lower weight and it didn't make his performance better
2.His contract probably stipulated Tour selection
3. Ss SKY probably thought best to use him as a rouler and on the flat section in the first 10 days rather than asa mountain dom of which they had many. I think he has more power with more weight on the flat /hills. As is the case for most. Dumoulin however was saying he lost 3kg but lost no power

pelevin · 31-08-2015 11:53pm

godtabh wrote: »

Sky also didnt have to transfer for 6 hours on a bus today

It's great how the super-rich 'corporation' sports teams can gain advantages over their rivals. Gives one a warm fuzzy feeling inside when one thinks of the plebs in their buses.

MPFGLB · 31-08-2015 11:56pm

Katusha have always had chopper transfers in the Vuelta and wouldn't be surprised if Movistar have as well

pelevin · 01-09-2015 12:06am

MPFGLB wrote: »

Katusha have always had chopper transfers in the Vuelta and wouldn't be surprised if Movistar have as well

They all give me fuzzy feelings when I think of the plebs below!

Edit: On CyclingQuotes, according to Valverde they were travelling by road.

dastardly00 · 01-09-2015 9:33am

Rory Sutherland tweeted that he (so I presume Movistar) were travelling by road.

Daroxtar · 01-09-2015 10:00am

Caja rural guys had to make their own way over
stock-photo-24963537-cyclist-in-trouble-hitchhiking.jpg

Inquitus · 01-09-2015 10:03am

pelevin wrote: »

They all give me fuzzy feelings when I think of the plebs below!

Edit: On CyclingQuotes, according to Valverde they were travelling by road.

The cost of hiring a charter helicopter and eliminating a 6 hour road transfer in a Grand Tour shouldn't be marginal gains, it should just be common sense, especially for those team with GC ambitions, its not like Astana, Movistar, Saxo etcs budgets are that much smaller than Sky's.

Melodeon · 01-09-2015 10:08am

Inquitus wrote: »

The cost of hiring a charter helicopter and eliminating a 6 hour road transfer in a Grand Tour shouldn't be marginal gains, it should just be common sense, especially for those team with GC ambitions, its not like Astana, Movistar, Saxo etcs budgets are that much smaller than Sky's.

Whatever about the rest of them, you'd imagine that Oleg wouldn't have too much trouble laying his hands on a few helicopters.

pelevin · 01-09-2015 10:16am

Inquitus wrote: »

The cost of hiring a charter helicopter and eliminating a 6 hour road transfer in a Grand Tour shouldn't be marginal gains, it should just be common sense, especially for those team with GC ambitions, its not like Astana, Movistar, Saxo etcs budgets are that much smaller than Sky's.

Maybe to a degree but it reminds me a bit of Marc Madiot's piece in CN, Motorhome go home, http://www.cyclingnews.com/blogs/marc-madiot/marc-madiot-blog-motorhome-go-home/:

"It’s a question of equity. Not all the teams are rich enough to buy more and more vehicles. Bretagne-Séché Environnement at the Tour de France, Bardiani-CSF at the Giro d’Italia or Caja Rural at the Vuelta a España, their budget is about one tenth of the biggest teams’. The charm of our sport is that they still have a chance to win a stage or something. Everyone has the right to dream. If we keep increasing the gap between the rich and the poor, we’ll lose one recipe for our success.
The economy of cycling is fragile, everyone knows that. Races are partly and greatly financed by provinces, town councils, tourism offices. If we tell these people that their hospitality is not good enough and we don’t want to stay in their hotels, will they continue to use cycling to promote tourism?
Hypobaric chambers are forbidden in Italy. A motorhome could be used for that. After controlling the cyclists and their bikes, will the UCI have to control the motorhomes too? And what after the motorhomes? Helicopters to go to starts and finishes? Private jets? Maybe Team Sky is rich enough for all that but the cycling community isn’t."

Chaves was in red before the last stage, whatever about winning, I'm sure he's hoping to do as well as he can. Did OGE travel by helicopter? Dumoulin the same? Or those hoping as Madiot alludes to, just to try & win a stage. The questions btw aren't rhetotrical, for all I know OGE & Giant did travel by helicopter.

Edit: Just checked OGE site which quotes Chaves saying, “Today was a really fast stage, all day 50/45km per hour. It was really humid, like Colombia, which for me is good but for sure the other riders were suffering a lot.”

“More difficult today is the next stage. Five hours in the bus, eat in the bus."

fat bloke · 01-09-2015 10:24am

In fairness, they're not using Bus Eireann!. Their buses are pretty darn swish! I'm not sure I'd rather a nerve wracking noisy chopper over my nice first class, air conditioned, air suspension, fully catered, leather recliner!

Inquitus · 01-09-2015 10:26am

pelevin wrote: »

Maybe to a degree but it reminds me a bit of Marc Madiot's piece in CN, Motorhome go home, http://www.cyclingnews.com/blogs/marc-madiot/marc-madiot-blog-motorhome-go-home/:

"It’s a question of equity. Not all the teams are rich enough to buy more and more vehicles. Bretagne-Séché Environnement at the Tour de France, Bardiani-CSF at the Giro d’Italia or Caja Rural at the Vuelta a España, their budget is about one tenth of the biggest teams’. The charm of our sport is that they still have a chance to win a stage or something. Everyone has the right to dream. If we keep increasing the gap between the rich and the poor, we’ll lose one recipe for our success.
The economy of cycling is fragile, everyone knows that. Races are partly and greatly financed by provinces, town councils, tourism offices. If we tell these people that their hospitality is not good enough and we don’t want to stay in their hotels, will they continue to use cycling to promote tourism?
Hypobaric chambers are forbidden in Italy. A motorhome could be used for that. After controlling the cyclists and their bikes, will the UCI have to control the motorhomes too? And what after the motorhomes? Helicopters to go to starts and finishes? Private jets? Maybe Team Sky is rich enough for all that but the cycling community isn’t."

Chaves was in red before the last stage, whatever about winning, I'm sure he's hoping to do as well as he can. Did OGE travel by helicopter? Dumoulin the same? Or those hoping as Madiot alludes to, just to try & win a stage. The questions btw aren't rhetotrical, for all I know OGE & Giant did travel by helicopter.

Big teams get the best kit, the best support vehicles, and the best riders. Having Nico, Richie and G as Super Doms in the TDF is a far bigger advantage than a helicopter transfer. Its not a level playing field, nor will it ever be, I think the motorhome was more borne out of the crappy hotels they are required by ASO to stay in than anything else, and if it was allowed all the big teams would copy it anyways. Take the mobile kitchens and chefs for example, this was instituted by Sky and then copied by alot of the top teams, and will always be way beyond the means of some teams.

No professional sport is a level playing field, money talks, and any notion it could be any different is purely romantic.

pelevin · 01-09-2015 10:37am

Inquitus wrote: »

No professional sport is a level playing field, money talks, and any notion it could be any different is purely romantic.

And when the power of money in sport gets to really build up a head of steam, one ends up with something as repugnant as modern soccer. But any notion things could be any different than that vile, insulting fiasco is apparently purely romantic.
You can have your realism.

Inquitus · 01-09-2015 10:49am

pelevin wrote: »

And when the power of money in sport gets to really build up a head of steam, one ends up with something as repugnant as modern soccer. But any notion things could be any different than that vile, insulting fiasco is apparently purely romantic.
You can have your realism.

I don't see how it could be changed, take all team sports from GAA to F1 to Soccer to Rugby. Money is the decisive factor in success, even in the amateur sport of the GAA, the Dubs practice their own version of Marginal Gains due to their vast budget in comparison to the other counties, and that's an amateur sport.

Salary/Budget caps would be the only way to achieve some sort of level playing field, but that brings its own minefield of issues.

pelevin · 01-09-2015 11:03am

Inquitus wrote: »

I don't see how it could be changed, take all team sports from GAA to F1 to Soccer to Rugby. Money is the decisive factor in success, even in the amateur sport of the GAA, the Dubs practice their own version of Marginal Gains due to their vast budget in comparison to the other counties, and that's an amateur sport.

Salary/Budget caps would be the only way to achieve some sort of level playing field, but that brings its own minefield of issues.

Well, one of the attractions to me is at least many or even most sports are relatively unsullied compared to the likes of soccer where money is absolutely triumphant. I'm certainly not going to lose sleep or get too excited about the occasional helicopter transfer but in terms of what can be done to prevent money in cycling obliterating the degree of the level playing field, the UCI forbidding the motorhomes was to me a good move.

Not that this could be regulated but it would help if the individuals on the teams stepped back a little from their individual concerns of what advantages can we gain with our huge budgets, & tried to see a bigger picture that Madiot refers to.

It's off-topic really but interesting that even in the heart of capitalism, the US, where in their big sports their sportsmen get obscenely huge wages, they do genuinely try to balance things & impose checks, balances & advantages on teams so that money doesn't simply determine all in the way soccer now more or less does.

Inquitus · 01-09-2015 11:16am

pelevin wrote: »

Well, one of the attractions to me is at least many or even most sports are relatively unsullied compared to the likes of soccer where money is absolutely triumphant. I'm certainly not going to lose sleep or get too excited about the occasional helicopter transfer but in terms of what can be done to prevent money in cycling obliterating the degree of the level playing field, the UCI forbidding the motorhomes was to me a good move.

Not that this could be regulated but it would help if the individuals on the teams stepped back a little from their individual concerns of what advantages can we gain with our huge budgets, & tried to see a bigger picture that Madiot refers to.

It's off-topic really but interesting that even in the heart of capitalism, the US, where in their big sports their sportsmen get obscenely huge wages, they do genuinely try to balance things & impose checks, balances & advantages on teams so that money doesn't simply determine all in the way soccer now more or less does.

A pro cycling draft would be interesting!

MPFGLB · 01-09-2015 12:40pm

Its on Eurosport tomorrow from 12.15pm GMT

The biggest advantage /disadvantage for me is a few teams having all the best riders/climbers

We will see this for Chaves & Dumoulin in the the next 6 stages....they will have no one to help them in the mountains

MPFGLB · 01-09-2015 12:49pm

Nico letting his feelings about the stage be known on twitter

nicholas roche ‏@nicholasroche -Encamp, Andorra
"After doing some recon i can say @PuritoRodriguez i hate you. And i can garenty that 178 others will tomorrow night"

Weds 2nd Sept: Vuelta 2015 stage 11: Andorra la Vella – Cortals d’Encamp 138km

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