Big Bet Tomorrow, Help Needed.

Y2KBOS86 · 14-06-2014 12:40am #1

Hi All.

I am on my last game in a 10 game accumulator tomorrow.

Need Uruguay to beat Costa Rica and I win 7000 euro, from a 14 euro bet.

Now I have came this far, don't want to be left empty handed and going to cover my bases.

I am thinking of putting 1000 euro on a draw @ 4.3/1 and 500 euro on Costa Rica to win @ 9/1

If Uruguay win I take home 5500

If it's a draw I take home 3300

If Costa Rica win I take home 3500

Anyone have any better idea?

I have a Paddy Power online account, mate at work said I should set up a Betfair account and Lay Uruguay, not sure still if that will work.

Appreciate any help here, this is big money for me, normally don't do any gambling.

artanevilla · 14-06-2014 12:42am

I'd just ride it out and hope Uruguay beat Costa Rica. Just remember you're losing 14 not 7000.

jantheman91 · 14-06-2014 12:46am

artanevilla wrote: »

I'd just ride it out and hope Uruguay beat Costa Rica. Just remember you're losing 14 not 7000.

Why would you do that when he can guarantee himself 3,000?

OP, do what you said you were going to do, it's idiot proof.

Y2KBOS86 · 14-06-2014 12:47am

artanevilla wrote: »

I'd just ride it out and hope Uruguay beat Costa Rica. Just remember you're losing 14 not 7000.

I was thinking like that as well, but I would be kicking myself If I won nothing.

I can win money on all scenario's If I cover myself.

Y2KBOS86 · 14-06-2014 12:48am

jantheman91 wrote: »

Why would you do that when he can guarantee himself 3,000?

OP, do what you said you were going to do, it's idiot proof.

Am I doing it right though?

Is there any easier way of doing.

I am reading about lay betting now, but still can't get my around it.

Kop On · 14-06-2014 12:53am

artanevilla wrote: »

I'd just ride it out and hope Uruguay beat Costa Rica. Just remember you're losing 14 not 7000.

Bonkers strategy! .... By covering the bets the OP can't lose.

OP - what you've suggested looks good. Fair play, nice bet!

sburn · 14-06-2014 1:01am

Agree on covering the bet, just an edit would the draw not leave you with €3,800.

Y2KBOS86 · 14-06-2014 1:11am

sburn wrote: »

Agree on covering the bet, just an edit would the draw not leave you with €3,800.

Draw odds are 4.33/1

I would put on a thousand euro to win 4330 - my 1000.

I am going to cover the bet, but not sure how to maximise my winnings with the 3 scenarios win,lose,draw.

If I put on 1200 to draw at 4.33/1 I will come out with 5200 winnings - 1200 for bet

4000 for draw.

Put 500 on Costa Rica win at 9/1 I will come out with 4500 winnings - 500 for bet.

4000 for Costa Rica win

Uruguay win I come out with 6900 winnings - 1700 on losing bets .

5200 for Uruguay win

I think that looks good.

Guaranteed 4000 euro.

jantheman91 · 14-06-2014 1:12am

Y2KBOS86 wrote: »

Draw odds are 4.33/1

I would put on a thousand euro to win 4330 - my 1000.

I am going to cover the bet, but not sure how to maximise my winnings with the 3 scenarios win,lose,draw.

If I put on 1200 to draw at 4.33/1 I will come out with 5200 winnings - 1200 for bet

4000 for draw.

Put 500 on Costa Rica win at 9/1 I will come out with 4500 winnings - 500 for bet.

4000 for Costa Rica win

Uruguay win I come out with 6900 winnings - 1700 on losing bets .

5200 for Uruguay win

I think that looks good.

Guaranteed 4000 euro.

Sounds like a plan!

Enjoy the money. :cool:

Y2KBOS86 · 14-06-2014 1:13am

Must say thanks very much lads for your help, my mind is at ease now, been thinking about this all day.

Brazil to beat Croatia was my 9th bet on the accumulator, I got very lucky there.

NewApproach · 14-06-2014 1:13am

I never understand wishing to lay off at this juncture. OP, when you placed the bet, why did you include the last team in it if you will only be looking to hedge should you be lucky enough for the first seven teams to win? You are costing yourself money in EV terms by laying off, as you're being hit with margin twice.

Y2KBOS86 · 14-06-2014 1:24am

NewApproach wrote: »

I never understand wishing to lay off at this juncture. OP, when you placed the bet, why did you include the last team in it if you will only be looking to hedge should you be lucky enough for the first seven teams to win? You are costing yourself money in EV terms by laying off, as you're being hit with margin twice.

Hi NewApproach, could you explain this to me again.

I'm not sure I totally understand.

Appreciate your advice

NewApproach · 14-06-2014 1:35am

Y2KBOS86 wrote: »

Hi NewApproach, could you explain this to me again.

I'm not sure I totally understand.

Appreciate your advice

Every selection in your accumulator has implied overround for the booker. By lumping them all in together, the bookmakers overround is compounded. Let's say your long term expected return on a single selection is 96% (I.e. 4% profit to bookmaker). If you are doing a 10 team accumulator, your expected return is only c.66%, so the bookies margin is far higher.

So by including additional selections in a high margin bet, and then looking to manage your position later by betting into the same market on the other side on the final selection, you are effectively backing every selection is a 105% or whatever market. As such you'd have been better off not including the final selection at all, or given you already have, the EV call is probably to let it ride.

Tl;dr: don't do accumulators.

the whole year inn · 14-06-2014 1:45am

First of fair play!!

It's there no cash out option for this?

How about you take costa Rica +1 Asain handicap 3.5k on @ 2.050
So if Uruguay wins by more than 1 you win 3.5k,if they win by just 1 you win 7k and if they draw you win 3.6k?
That's assuming you can get 3.5k on.

AndonHandon · 14-06-2014 1:51am

OP, I would stick to your OP plan. See it this way; €14.00 initial stake and at least €3,500.00 take home. All it was was a 10-team acca and a relatively low stake. Take your significant returns while you can now and look to the next €14.00, 10-team acca.

jantheman91 · 14-06-2014 1:52am

the whole year inn wrote: »

First of fair play!!

It's there no cash out option for this?

How about you take costa Rica +1 Asain handicap 3.5k on @ 2.050
So if Uruguay wins by more than 1 you win 3.5k,if they win by just 1 you win 7k and if they draw you win 3.6k?
That's assuming you can get 3.5k on.

That's not much different to what he was doing, and is less complicated as he already knows what to do.

My advice to him is to just do what he was going to do.

Kyro · 14-06-2014 1:52am

If that was me I'd let it ride. Go hard or go home. Especially since I think Uruguay will win tomorrow.

But I can understand you wanting to guarantee yourself money.

Good luck either way.

the whole year inn · 14-06-2014 1:52am

Can we get a snapshot of the bet slip Aswell

fuzzydunlop85 · 14-06-2014 1:53am

Nice bet man, congrats !

the whole year inn · 14-06-2014 1:54am

jantheman91 wrote: »

That's not much different to what he was doing, and is less complicated as he already knows what to do.

My advice to him is to just do what he was going to do.

There an extra 1.5k for him if it's a draw for a little bit of work.if he can get the cash on the only problem.

fuzzydunlop85 · 14-06-2014 1:55am

What were the games just out curiosity, must have been some random ones in there as the WC has just started! Not doubting btw, just curious about the teams!

Y2KBOS86 · 14-06-2014 3:31am

fuzzydunlop85 wrote: »

What were the games just out curiosity, must have been some random ones in there as the WC has just started! Not doubting btw, just curious about the teams!

Would be winning 48k if not for the Void bet ( Horse never ran )

the whole year inn · 14-06-2014 3:46am

I think the best way to do this is by the double chance market .
Back costa Rica or draw @ 7/4 ,you bet 2k and if Uruguay wins then you are up 5k , if it's a draw or costa Rica win your up 3.5k.

If I was you I'd put 500 on double chance you guaranteed your self profit and stand to win 6.5k with a VERY good chance of it coming in.
It's up to your self of course.

Kyro · 14-06-2014 3:49am

Strange how you put in two matches that were 3 months away :pac:

Best of luck though, good bet.

Y2KBOS86 · 14-06-2014 4:09am

the whole year inn wrote: »

I think the best way to do this is by the double chance market .
Back costa Rica or draw @ 7/4 ,you bet 2k and if Uruguay wins then you are up 5k , if it's a draw or costa Rica win your up 3.5k.

If I was you I'd put 500 on double chance you guaranteed your self profit and stand to win 6.5k with a VERY good chance of it coming in.
It's up to your self of course.

Do you have a link for that double chance market

So far this is what I am going with.

1350 @ 4.33/1 for draw = 5845 winnings - 1350 bet = 4495 take home

550 @ 9/1 for Costa Rica to win = 4950 winnings - 550 bet = 4400 take home

Uruguay to win = 6900 winngs - 1900 bet = take 5000 take home

At least this way I am guaranteed between 4400 - 5000 euro.

bradlente · 14-06-2014 4:31am

the whole year inn wrote: »

I think the best way to do this is by the double chance market .
Back costa Rica or draw @ 7/4 ,you bet 2k and if Uruguay wins then you are up 5k , if it's a draw or costa Rica win your up 3.5k.

If I was you I'd put 500 on double chance you guaranteed your self profit and stand to win 6.5k with a VERY good chance of it coming in.
It's up to your self of course.

Would go for this too,you could set some of the 6.5 aside for if Uruguay go ahead too and back the double chance again at bigger odds,meaning you would win either 1-2k if Costa Rica draw/win,4.5-5.5k if Uruguay win or 10k+ if Uruguay go ahead early and you back the double chance again at big odds and Costa Rica come back,that'd be the most unlikely outcome but it'd give you a massive win.
What you plan to do is pretty much bang on anyway,be careful where you do it though.If you're backing the double chance with Powers there's a good chance they'll close your account after the win,they won't like you trying to guarantee profit.

JONJO THE MISER · 14-06-2014 4:47am

Remember this is football and there is no such team as a cert its too low scoring and unpredictable.
Lay off your bet and you will still be ahead whatever the outcome.

Whosthis · 14-06-2014 5:04am

Y2KBOS86 wrote: »

Do you have a link for that double chance market

So far this is what I am going with.

1350 @ 4.33/1 for draw = 5845 winnings - 1350 bet = 4495 take home

550 @ 9/1 for Costa Rica to win = 4950 winnings - 550 bet = 4400 take home

Uruguay to win = 6900 winngs - 1900 bet = take 5000 take home

At least this way I am guaranteed between 4400 - 5000 euro.

Here's an oddschecker link for the double chance market http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/uruguay-v-costa-rica/double-chance , I'd personally go with the Costa Rica or Draw option. Another piece of advice is do not place the bet with Paddy Power. You placed your original bet with them and they may try and weasel out of paying up if you arb with them. The next best odds on offer that have a bricks and mortar presence in Ireland is with Ladbrokes (they're offering 2.8 or 9/5). You're best off placing the bet in a Ladbrokes shop, with cash.

the whole year inn · 14-06-2014 5:10am

Y2KBOS86 wrote: »

Do you have a link for that double chance market

So far this is what I am going with.

1350 @ 4.33/1 for draw = 5845 winnings - 1350 bet = 4495 take home

550 @ 9/1 for Costa Rica to win = 4950 winnings - 550 bet = 4400 take home

Uruguay to win = 6900 winngs - 1900 bet = take 5000 take home

At least this way I am guaranteed between 4400 - 5000 euro.

You forgot to minus the 1350 off the costa Rica win so that 4400 -1350=3050

And you have to do the same thing for a draw market 4495 -500= 3900

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/uruguay-v-costa-rica/double-chance

Maybe of you checked in shop you might find slightly better odds!

clickerquicklic · 14-06-2014 8:59am

Good bet well done
Lay 4930 to take 4669 either way assuming 5% comission you will need 2316 in Betfair

Y2KBOS86 · 14-06-2014 11:05am

the whole year inn wrote: »

You forgot to minus the 1350 off the costa Rica win so that 4400 -1350=3050

And you have to do the same thing for a draw market 4495 -500= 3900

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/uruguay-v-costa-rica/double-chance

Maybe of you checked in shop you might find slightly better odds!

Thanks, shocking mistake on my part.

Doesn't look as good now.

Big Bet Tomorrow, Help Needed.

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