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HEC SF: Clermont Auvergne vs Leinster; Sunday 29 April, KO 1600(CET); Live Sky Sports

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    #32
    Gracelessly Tom
    Registered Users Posts: 1,053 ✭✭✭Gracelessly Tom


    ionadnapokot wrote: »
    Interesting. Para kicked when they played in Dec '10. James kicks ahead of Para in Top 14?

    That was in the December group games, not sure if it had something to do with the Q final crumble James suffered in April that year.

    James kicked them to victory against Sarries in the Q final so he'll be kicking on Sunday. Or at least until he gets the yips again and starts missing them (please, please, please....)


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    #33
    molloyjh
    Registered Users Posts: 24,745 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    Gracelessly Tom wrote: »
    While it is an away semi the fact it is not being played in a ground Clermont are regulars in will negate some of the home semi factor.

    I'm not convinced by this at all. Yes it's not their home ground, but the Stade Marcel-Michelin only holds 18k. If the game were to be there then there would be about 1-2k Leinster fans meaning only about 16-17k Clermont fans. With a capacity of 34k in Bordeaux, and only about 1-2k Leinster fans travelling, that means (neutral support aside) the rest will be Clermont fans. Probably around 30k of them. If anything that amplifies the home advantage. And having been in the Stade Marcel Michelin before that thought frightens me more than the thought of Barnes and co officiating.

    I still think we can scrape a win, but if we do it will only be by a couple of points. For as much as it's the 2 best teams in the tournament it could still be a dog fight and probably not the prettiest of games. I expect to be puckered from start to finish and screaming at Johnny to drop back into the pocket at about 78 mins. :(


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    #34
    fitz
    Hosted Moderators Posts: 7,947 ✭✭✭fitz


    molloyjh wrote: »
    I'm not convinced by this at all. Yes it's not their home ground, but the Stade Marcel-Michelin only holds 18k. If the game were to be there then there would be about 1-2k Leinster fans meaning only about 16-17k Clermont fans. With a capacity of 34k in Bordeaux, and only about 1-2k Leinster fans travelling, that means (neutral support aside) the rest will be Clermont fans. Probably around 30k of them. If anything that amplifies the home advantage. And having been in the Stade Marcel Michelin before that thought frightens me more than the thought of Barnes and co officiating.

    I still think we can scrape a win, but if we do it will only be by a couple of points. For as much as it's the 2 best teams in the tournament it could still be a dog fight and probably not the prettiest of games. I expect to be puckered from start to finish and screaming at Johnny to drop back into the pocket at about 78 mins. :(

    It's not going to be good for the blood pressure, that's for sure....


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    #35
    .ak
    Registered Users Posts: 30,308 Mod ✭✭✭✭.ak


    fitz wrote: »
    It's not going to be good for the blood pressure, that's for sure....

    I think I'll be standing for the match....


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    #36
    Gracelessly Tom
    Registered Users Posts: 1,053 ✭✭✭Gracelessly Tom


    molloyjh wrote: »
    I'm not convinced by this at all. Yes it's not their home ground, but the Stade Marcel-Michelin only holds 18k. If the game were to be there then there would be about 1-2k Leinster fans meaning only about 16-17k Clermont fans. With a capacity of 34k in Bordeaux, and only about 1-2k Leinster fans travelling, that means (neutral support aside) the rest will be Clermont fans. Probably around 30k of them. If anything that amplifies the home advantage. And having been in the Stade Marcel Michelin before that thought frightens me more than the thought of Barnes and co officiating.

    I can see your argument alright, and there is the fact that the stadium is bigger so more fans can get in. However, and I stand to be corrected, I can't see it being a straight split between Leinster and Clermont fans. You mention the neutral fans but I think there will be quite a few of these and also, don't forget the thousands of Irish expats living in France and Europe who will have bought tickets through France and will make the trip as well.


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    #37
    ionadnapokot
    Registered Users Posts: 4,732 ✭✭✭ionadnapokot


    Gracelessly Tom wrote: »
    That was in the December group games, not sure if it had something to do with the Q final crumble James suffered in April that year.

    James kicked them to victory against Sarries in the Q final so he'll be kicking on Sunday. Or at least until he gets the yips again and starts missing them (please, please, please....)

    it would be strange if Clermont put James in that position again. esp with a kicker of Para's calibre on the pitch.
    Here hoping your right and James tees it up on Sunday.


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    #38
    .ak
    Registered Users Posts: 30,308 Mod ✭✭✭✭.ak


    James has been kicking great in the T14, and did a number on the Sarries with his boot. He'll be kicking.

    Doesn't matter who's kicking, we should be thinking of NOT conceding penalties...


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    #39
    Gracelessly Tom
    Registered Users Posts: 1,053 ✭✭✭Gracelessly Tom


    ionadnapokot wrote: »
    it would be strange if Clermont put James in that position again. esp with a kicker of Para's calibre on the pitch.
    Here hoping your right and James tees it up on Sunday.

    Not really that strange seeing as he's their regular kicker and was MotM against Sarries in the last round due to his kicking display.


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    #40
    Gracelessly Tom
    Registered Users Posts: 1,053 ✭✭✭Gracelessly Tom


    .ak wrote: »
    James has been kicking great in the T14, and did a number on the Sarries with his boot. He'll be kicking.

    Doesn't matter who's kicking, we should be thinking of NOT conceding penalties...

    Barnes is the ref don't forget......;)


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    #41
    d-gal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,787 ✭✭✭d-gal


    Praying Leinster win for Connacht's HC participation next year but I can't see past Clermont practically at home. They are just so physical with genius backs out wide.
    Team selection is vital but no matter what it looks like Clermont have the stronger bench and that is crazy depth since Leinster are now so well known for their impact of the bench.

    The only chance I give Leinster is : Brad Thorn. If he dominates Cudmore and Hines then Clermont are in trouble. The man is a machine and seems to be doing more work around the park than any backrower. Amazing for his age


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    #42
    molloyjh
    Registered Users Posts: 24,745 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    Gracelessly Tom wrote: »
    I can see your argument alright, and there is the fact that the stadium is bigger so more fans can get in. However, and I stand to be corrected, I can't see it being a straight split between Leinster and Clermont fans. You mention the neutral fans but I think there will be quite a few of these and also, don't forget the thousands of Irish expats living in France and Europe who will have bought tickets through France and will make the trip as well.

    Clermont sold their 15k allocation in a couple of hours and even at that some where trying to buy Leinster allocated tickets. Add to that a good few numbers buying public sale and I can see there being 25k easily enough. Part of me is loving the thought cos it'll be a great spectacle, but I also realise that they will drown us out most likely too. I do hope I'm wrong though....


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    #43
    brash_piano
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3 ✭brash_piano


    I agree that this game is the sort of challenge this Leinster team will be looking for at this stage in their evolution. It's a fair enough point to say that Leinster haven't been tested this season (apart from first game away to Montpellier) but the bloodless nature of their campaign so far bodes well for the kind of mindset the squad has at the moment. I would look to the away victories at munster and ulster also for evidence of this. I get the feeling that when this squad is pushed they'll have the ability increase speed and accuracy to levels that other teams in hcup won't be able to deal with.

    I think Clermont are a quality side no doubt and semi-finals are volatile, one-off fixtures. I think home advantage and the ref are huge issues. If we think back to Leinster's bonus point loss at Stade MM last season and Ulster's this year, both those games hinged on poor referring decisions. That also tells us something about Clermont. They've been beaten away from home by Ulster already this year, almost beaten at home by Ulster.

    Sure you can argue that Leinster haven't been tested. But having said that, for the knockout stages Leinster have been able to introduce two of the best players in world rugby at the moment in O'Driscoll and Thorn. I think Leinster are the better team by a considerable distance. Whether home advantage and the ref neutralize this is the big question for me.


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    #44
    Gracelessly Tom
    Registered Users Posts: 1,053 ✭✭✭Gracelessly Tom


    d-gal wrote: »
    Praying Leinster win for Connacht's HC participation next year but I can't see past Clermont practically at home. They are just so physical with genius backs out wide.
    Team selection is vital but no matter what it looks like Clermont have the stronger bench and that is crazy depth since Leinster are now so well known for their impact of the bench.

    The only chance I give Leinster is : Brad Thorn. If he dominates Cudmore and Hines then Clermont are in trouble. The man is a machine and seems to be doing more work around the park than any backrower. Amazing for his age

    As are Leinster!

    Really? Totally disagree with you there going on the 1/4 final selections. Also impossible to call as the squads aren't announced yet!

    So it's all down to Brad Thorn? You honestly think that none of the other battles on the pitch will make a difference? Sexton v James? 6,7,8 V 6,7,8?


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    #45
    totallegend
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭totallegend


    d-gal wrote: »
    Praying Leinster win for Connacht's HC participation next year but I can't see past Clermont practically at home. They are just so physical with genius backs out wide.
    Team selection is vital but no matter what it looks like Clermont have the stronger bench and that is crazy depth since Leinster are now so well known for their impact of the bench.

    The only chance I give Leinster is : Brad Thorn. If he dominates Cudmore and Hines then Clermont are in trouble. The man is a machine and seems to be doing more work around the park than any backrower. Amazing for his age

    Likely benches:
    Clermont: Paulo, Debaty, Kotze, Pierre, Bardy, Radoslavejic (sp?), King, Buttin
    Leinster: Cronin, van der Merwe, White, Toner, Jennings, Boss, Madigan, McFadden

    I don't see a huge difference there tbh. That Kotze guy is a bit of a beast alright but I won't be panicking if Clermont start emptying the bench. They also lack a recognised out-half on the bench...


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    #46
    .ak
    Registered Users Posts: 30,308 Mod ✭✭✭✭.ak


    One thing is for sure, the noise levels will be something else. The Clermont fans will be at their usual best, and we [the Leinster fans] will be making noise whenever they are not, so it'll be pure noise for 80 minutes!


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    #47
    fitz
    Hosted Moderators Posts: 7,947 ✭✭✭fitz


    .ak wrote: »
    I think I'll be standing for the match....

    I'm sure I'll have a seat, but much like the final last year, I can't see myself staying in it for very long. Will probably be up and down like a yoyo roaring at the screen... :p


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    #48
    GerM
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,592 ✭✭✭GerM


    totallegend wrote: »
    They also lack a recognised out-half on the bench...

    Their recognised back up outhalf is playing at 9. Any issue, Parra has more than enough experience to slot in there.

    Would agree that there's no difference in the benches. Most would argue that Leinster even have the upper hand in that department. A lot more big game experience on the predicted Leinster bench.


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    #49
    d-gal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,787 ✭✭✭d-gal


    totallegend wrote: »
    d-gal wrote: »
    Praying Leinster win for Connacht's HC participation next year but I can't see past Clermont practically at home. They are just so physical with genius backs out wide.
    Team selection is vital but no matter what it looks like Clermont have the stronger bench and that is crazy depth since Leinster are now so well known for their impact of the bench.

    The only chance I give Leinster is : Brad Thorn. If he dominates Cudmore and Hines then Clermont are in trouble. The man is a machine and seems to be doing more work around the park than any backrower. Amazing for his age

    Likely benches:
    Clermont: Paulo, Debaty, Kotze, Pierre, Bardy, Radoslavejic (sp?), King, Buttin
    Leinster: Cronin, van der Merwe, White, Toner, Jennings, Boss, Madigan, McFadden

    I don't see a huge difference there tbh. That Kotze guy is a bit of a beast alright but I won't be panicking if Clermont start emptying the bench. They also lack a recognised out-half on the bench...

    Parra replacement outhalf.
    The bench is just so bloody big and physical, its scary and I just think that crazy home vocal support adds to it. If its an open game Leinster have a great chance due to more flair and dynamism of the bench.
    But it should be all about who is on top in the forwards


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    #50
    Tox56
    Registered Users Posts: 11,636 ✭✭✭✭Tox56


    d-gal wrote: »
    Parra replacement outhalf.
    The bench is just so bloody big and physical, its scary and I just think that crazy home vocal support adds to it. If its an open game Leinster have a great chance due to more flair and dynamism of the bench.
    But it should be all about who is on top in the forwards

    Having 7 Heineken Cup winners on your bench is significant. There is also a mix of experience with Boss, Jennings, VdM, and McFadden, combined with the youth and flair of Cronin, Toner, Madigan.

    Although, I don't know how confident I would be seeing Madigan coming on before the game is won.


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    #51
    conf101
    Registered Users Posts: 1,037 ✭✭✭conf101


    Tox56 wrote: »
    Although, I don't know how confident I would be seeing Madigan coming on before the game is won.

    I wonder would a lot of people have said the very same thing about Sexton in '09?


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    #52
    Tox56
    Registered Users Posts: 11,636 ✭✭✭✭Tox56


    conf101 wrote: »
    I wonder would a lot of people have said the very same thing about Sexton in '09?

    That actually came into my head while I was writing it, but it's more that Sexton is too good to lose, than Madigan is too bad to come on.


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    #53
    durkadurka
    Registered Users Posts: 6,207 ✭✭✭durkadurka


    Ii wasn't as worried about sexton then. He was a lot more 'seasoned' by then, had played a good few HEC games, had been a big part of the league winning magners team the season before.
    I watched him start against Toulouse in 08 I think for example.

    Madigan has only really come through this year.


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    #54
    d-gal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,787 ✭✭✭d-gal


    Tox56 wrote: »
    d-gal wrote: »
    Parra replacement outhalf.
    The bench is just so bloody big and physical, its scary and I just think that crazy home vocal support adds to it. If its an open game Leinster have a great chance due to more flair and dynamism of the bench.
    But it should be all about who is on top in the forwards

    Having 7 Heineken Cup winners on your bench is significant. There is also a mix of experience with Boss, Jennings, VdM, and McFadden, combined with the youth and flair of Cronin, Toner, Madigan.

    Although, I don't know how confident I would be seeing Madigan coming on before the game is won.

    I'd have plenty of confidence in Madigan, think he is a big game player


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    #55
    Legion2008
    Registered Users Posts: 223 ✭✭Legion2008


    can someone fix the typo in the title .... it's bugging me ....

    When are the teams announced?


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    #56
    profitius
    Registered Users Posts: 3,976 ✭✭✭profitius


    People are talking about the size of the Clermont pack. Its big alright, typical for a French team. The bigger the pack the less mobile it is generally. If Leinster play at their high tempo most big packs will struggle to keep up.

    The main problem for Leinster (and what turned me off backing them) is the clown with the whistle. He tends to favour the home team.


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    #57
    totallegend
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭totallegend


    GerM wrote: »
    Their recognised back up outhalf is playing at 9. Any issue, Parra has more than enough experience to slot in there.

    Would agree that there's no difference in the benches. Most would argue that Leinster even have the upper hand in that department. A lot more big game experience on the predicted Leinster bench.

    Yeah, but if the argument is that Clermont have a better bench, if the respective out-halves get injured, a Reddan-Madigan axis is a lot better than a Rado-Parra combo.

    Leinster bench is well ahead in terms of experience, the only edge Clermont have is in ball-carrying, bringing Paulo and Kotze off the game against a tiring Leinster team and punching holes in the defensive line could cause problems.


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    #58
    Quint2010
    Registered Users Posts: 5,178 ✭✭✭Quint2010


    profitius wrote: »
    People are talking about the size of the Clermont pack. Its big alright, typical for a French team. The bigger the pack the less mobile it is generally. If Leinster play at their high tempo most big packs will struggle to keep up.

    The main problem for Leinster (and what turned me off backing them) is the clown with the whistle. He tends to favour the home team.

    On that-to what extent does each team have access to the referee before the game? And what way does an away team normally play this with the ref prior to the game?


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    #59
    Tox56
    Registered Users Posts: 11,636 ✭✭✭✭Tox56


    totallegend wrote: »
    Yeah, but if the argument is that Clermont have a better bench, if the respective out-halves get injured, a Reddan-Madigan axis is a lot better than a Rado-Parra combo.

    Leinster bench is well ahead in terms of experience, the only edge Clermont have is in ball-carrying, bringing Paulo and Kotze off the game against a tiring Leinster team and punching holes in the defensive line could cause problems.

    In fairness, that's what Cronin was born to do.


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    #60
    molloyjh
    Registered Users Posts: 24,745 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    Great article from Quinny yesterday.....

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2012/0425/1224315146927.html


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    #61
    LEIN
    Moderators Posts: 9,936 ✭✭✭LEIN


    .ak wrote: »
    One thing is for sure, the noise levels will be something else. The Clermont fans will be at their usual best, and we [the Leinster fans] will be making noise whenever they are not, so it'll be pure noise for 80 minutes!

    Not if the Leinster team can silence them early. ;)


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