General Election 2011 - Dublin Central thread

Travel is good · 27-01-2011 2:49pm #1

I just wanted to start this thread as I want to be very careful who I vote for.

So far the candidates that I know of are:

Mary Fitzpatrick (FF)
Cyprian Brady (FF)
Paschal Donohoe (FG)
Joe Costello (Labour)
Mary Lou McDonald (SF)
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind)
Christy Burke (Ind)

Does anyone else know who will be putting themselves forward for election?

I know we will get the government that we deserve, that's why I will be very careful in examining each candidate's policies.

cancercowboy · 27-01-2011 2:58pm

I would feel sorry for any Fianna Fáil candidate knocking on doors in that constituency. Let me give you a quote I heard last night "if Fianna Fáil knock on my door looking for a vote, they'll get a bullet."

I think there is one more labour candidate for Dublin Central, a woman. I don't know her name.

LeixlipRed · 27-01-2011 3:13pm

One chap told in Lucan last night told me he had a bucket of piss out the back for FF canvassers. Exagerating I'm sure but I quickly explained I was not a FF canvasser and slowly backed away

d'Oracle · 27-01-2011 3:16pm

Cllr. Aine Clancy

steof1984 · 27-01-2011 3:17pm

Aine Clancy is also running, she is the second labour candidate

Travel is good · 27-01-2011 3:19pm

cancercowboy wrote: »

I would feel sorry for any Fianna Fáil candidate knocking on doors in that constituency. Let me give you a quote I heard last night "if Fianna Fáil knock on my door looking for a vote, they'll get a bullet."

I think there is one more labour candidate for Dublin Central, a woman. I don't know her name.

Thanks for that. I wasn't sure if there was a second Labour candidate. I think it might be Aine Clancy, she is a Dublin City councillor at present.

I think you're right about the FF candidates. If they are wise, they will not canvas door to door, just do a leaflet drop and run! On second thoughts, they shouldn't even waste their money printing off leaflets as there probably won't be any point.

So who are the alternatives then? I'm not inspired at the moment by any of the remaining candidates.

Edit: Thanks for the info. about Aine Clancy, I must have been posting at the same time!

Badabing · 27-01-2011 3:55pm

1FF depends if Bertie machine roll behind Brady but deffo 1 FF, 1Lab 1 FG 1 IND. Mary Lou to lose out again due to Burke and O'Suillivan taking her votes.

Travel is good · 28-01-2011 10:54am

Good prediction, that's pretty accurate. Though I think there might be a possibility of a
2nd Labour candidate getting elected.

Mary lou McDonald didn't do so well the last time she ran in this constituency, so I'm not sure of her chances now.

We got the 1st election letter from Paschal Donohoe yesterday.

ArmaniJeanss · 28-01-2011 12:10pm

Badabing wrote: »

deffo 1 FF, 1Lab 1 FG 1 IND.

I don't think theres a definite seat here for FF, theres potentially a very hard fought Seat no 4 here for them if they battle for every vote and transfer and put whats left of the party machine behind one candidate.

Shoe-ins. Costello, Donohue, O'Sullivan.
4th seat a tight battle between the two Marys and possibly Aine Clancy depending how well Costello transfers. Cyprian is dead in the water.

Bit of a bell weather constituency for FF, if they can sneak the 4th seat in constituencies like this they can overcome their predicted low percentage first prefence vote and retain 40+ seats. If they fail then the sub30, sub25 mark becomes a possibility.

Travel is good · 31-01-2011 2:33pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Shoe-ins. Costello, Donohue, O'Sullivan.
4th seat a tight battle between the two Marys and possibly Aine Clancy depending how well Costello transfers. Cyprian is dead in the water.

I agree with you regarding FF, I don't think Cyprian will get elected. I predict Mary Fitzpatrick will, she has been more active in the area anyway. Didn't she get more votes than Cyprian in the last election? Labour might do well this time, with the possibility of a second seat.

mikemac · 31-01-2011 2:39pm

1 Costello
2 O'Sullivan
3 Donohue after two narrow failures
4 Brady or Fitzpatrick? I reckon Cyprian Brady, FF will take one seat for sure
5 Clancy as Joe Costello's running mate

Bottle_of_Smoke · 31-01-2011 3:52pm

Think its possible FF won't get a seat. The Bertie factor was a fairly big thing last time.

I think it will be Costello, Donaghoe, Clancy & O'Sullivan

If Burke wasn't running I think Mary Lou would have gotten in but they'll just split each other's votes. Perhaps an outside chance Burke could take some of O'Sullivan's votes though.
Very hard constituency to call.

mikemac · 31-01-2011 4:13pm

Yep, Burke and Fitzpatrick are over in west side, Cabra direction.

Christy Burke has a profile.
But when I lived in Dublin Central it was a big issue that Mary Lou didn't even live in the area! Maybe it should not matter for national elections but it does to voters.

And now Christy Burke and Mary Lou might wipe each other out, cannibalize I think is the term.

I definitely think FF will take a seat in Dublin Central. But there was a time when taking just one seat in a five seater was seen as a failure for FF

Travel is good · 31-01-2011 4:23pm

There's only 4 seats in this constituency though, so that's why the final seat will be a tough one for candidates.

I'm still not convinced about Cyprian Brady, although I hear he is very experienced, from working with the Bertie machine. Not sure if that is a good thing though, at least Mary Fitzpatrick hasn't been tainted by Bertiegate so far.

I think Paschal Donohoe will be a strong candidate, though I hope FG have good people on the finance/economics side, as this country is going to need it.

I have the feeling Labour will do well also. I presume at least one Independent will be elected, possibly Maureen O'Sullivan.

I can see a bitter battle ahead!

mikemac · 31-01-2011 4:27pm

Travel is good wrote: »

There's only 4 seats in this constituency though,

I'm happy to be corrected but is it not a five seater?

Travel is good · 31-01-2011 4:38pm

My apologies, feelingstressed, I didn't mean to correct you!

I took the information from Wikipedia that it was a 4 seater constituency. I know, I shouldn't always trust the info. there.

Anyway guys, have a look at this, I found it when I was trying to verify whether or not Dublin Central is a 4 seater:

http://www.politicalworld.org/showthread.php?t=6641

It makes for interesting reading. I hadn't realised how close Paschal Donohoe was in the last GE 2007. I know Cyprian Brady got the 2nd preference & others from Bertie Ahern, so that was how he got elected in the end.

So it's looking much better for Paschal now.

I'd love if some of the candidates came on here & talked to us!

mikemac · 31-01-2011 4:47pm

Actually you may be correct, I assumed it was a five seater and now I don't know

As I posted before, I'm happy to be corrected

Is it 4 seats or 5 seats?

Travel is good · 31-01-2011 5:05pm

OK, feelingstressed, I'm trying to find a more official sources this time:

http://www.oireachtas.ie/members-hist/default.asp?housetype=0&HouseNum=30&ConstID=73&disp=mem

According to this website, Dublin Central was a 4 seater for the 2007 General Election anyway. Maureen O'Sullivan replaced Tony Gregory, so that's why you see 5 names.

Usually the number of candidates is based on the population numbers in the constituency. The population in Dublin Central has dropped slightly, so that is why we went back to being a 4 seater constituency. It may well have been a 5 seater in recent years. But as far as I know, for the purpose of the 2011 election, it is a 4 seater.

Can anyone else verify that is the case, as I'm beginning to doubt myself now?

mikemac · 31-01-2011 5:07pm

Travel is good wrote: »

as I'm beginning to doubt myself now?

Me too

I'd be very happy to have this resolved

Magi11 · 31-01-2011 5:28pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I don't think theres a definite seat here for FF, theres potentially a very hard fought Seat no 4 here for them if they battle for every vote and transfer and put whats left of the party machine behind one candidate.

Shoe-ins. Costello, Donohue, O'Sullivan.
4th seat a tight battle between the two Marys and possibly Aine Clancy depending how well Costello transfers. Cyprian is dead in the water.

Bit of a bell weather constituency for FF, if they can sneak the 4th seat in constituencies like this they can overcome their predicted low percentage first prefence vote and retain 40+ seats. If they fail then the sub30, sub25 mark becomes a possibility.

All will depend on whether Bertie's 12k first pref votes from 2007 were a personal vote or for FF. As I suspect the former, FF will not be in contention for the last seat. But it is as stated one of the indicators for the election.

Sir Oxman · 31-01-2011 5:54pm

It's a 4-seater.

Costello (Lab) definite
Donohoe (FG) definite

I have a sneaky feeling Fitzpatrick (FF) will grab the fourth, she increased her vote last year in the locals and is very much on the anti-Ahern wing of FF. Funnily enough, Fitzpatrick, although only a Cllr, has been named FF Spokesperson on Housing & Urban Development as part of their new front bench today - so we can see which way that wind is blowing in DubCentral in regards to who out of FF, is persona non-grata and perhaps the importance FF are attaching to getting a seat here.

I think SF's MLMcD has a good chance of a seat, she's a resident and very strong in the Cabra end (with AFAIK, Nicky Kehoe's support base behind her) and her HQ is in the Ballybough end. I think she'll squeeze Clancy Lab (Cabra end) for the second leftwing seat here.

I've heard the O Sullivan/Gregory bandwagon is nearly all out of steam? and Burke has nothing behind him.

So, I think:

Lab 1
FG 1
SF 1
FF 1 unfortunately (though it could be O Sullivan, hard to call)

mikemac · 31-01-2011 5:59pm

4 seater so? I'll revise my predictions

Costello
O'Sullivan
Donohue
An almighty scrap between Clancy/Fitzpatrick and Brady for the 4th seat.
I see either Aine Clancy or Cyprian Brandy taking it

Mary Lou not a factor

Travel is good · 31-01-2011 6:45pm

gambiaman wrote: »

I think SF's MLMcD has a good chance of a seat, she's a resident and very strong in the Cabra end (with AFAIK, Nicky Kehoe's support base behind her) and her HQ is in the Ballybough end. I think she'll squeeze Clancy Lab (Cabra end) for the second leftwing seat here.

Oh, I didn't realise Mary Lou was a Dublin Central resident, I was wondering why they were parachuting her in. In previous elections Nicky Kehoe was a strong contender, so SF are going all out with a high profile candidate. Though seriously, I don't think (& hope) she won't get elected.

Interesting news about Mary F and the FF front bench.

Glad to see a good selection of female candidates.

So the battle is on.....

mikemac · 31-01-2011 6:49pm

gambiaman wrote: »

I think SF's MLMcD has a good chance of a seat, she's a resident and very strong in the Cabra end

You sure? As she was a parachute candidate last time. And Irish people don't take kindly to that

Sir Oxman · 31-01-2011 7:02pm

Travel is good wrote: »

Oh, I didn't realise Mary Lou was a Dublin Central resident, I was wondering why they were parachuting her in. In previous elections Nicky Kehoe was a strong contender, so SF are going all out with a high profile candidate. Though seriously, I don't think (& hope) she won't get elected.

feelingstressed wrote: »

You sure? As she was a parachute candidate last time. And Irish people don't take kindly to that

She lives in Cabra...since the by-election result

I think the fact she has the Nicky Keogh support base behind her and the swing in votes to the left gives her a very, very good shot at a seat here.

Maj Malfunction · 01-02-2011 12:06pm

I think Dublin Central will end up as follows

1. Paschal Donohoe (FG)
2. Joe Costello (Labour)
3. Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind)
4. Mary Fitzpatrick (FF) / Aine Clancy (Labour) / Christy Burke (Ind)

If I was to bet on the 4th seat? Clancy on transfers??

Cyprian Brady (FF) - Not a hope!
Mary Lou McDonald (SF) - Not a hope!

I didn't think Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind) was going to stand again in the election. Is there an official candidate list somewhere on the interweb?

outandabout · 01-02-2011 12:20pm

Mary Fitzpatrick will get a boost following her selection on the Fianna Fail front bench.

the groutch · 01-02-2011 12:31pm

costello, o sullivan & donohue are all certs imo

gonna be a shootout between Fitzpatrick & McDonald with Mary Lou to just about edge it with transfers from Burke & Clancy

Bottle_of_Smoke · 01-02-2011 3:10pm

the groutch wrote: »

costello, o sullivan & donohue are all certs imo

gonna be a shootout between Fitzpatrick & McDonald with Mary Lou to just about edge it with transfers from Burke & Clancy

Interesting that.
Suppose makes sense in that she got elected as a FF counciller in the locals. Probably the right move from a FF point of view.

I'm not so sure about Maureen O'Sullivan as a dead cert. Tony Gregory was basically universally loved and his death was mourned locally and nationally. Even northern politicians were saying good things about him. She was seen as coming from the same angle as him. I'm not sure all that momentum will carry for this election.

FreudianSlippers · 01-02-2011 4:20pm

What are the political leanings of the 2 independent candidates?

Travel is good · 01-02-2011 8:12pm

Christy Burke is ex SF. I'm not sure about Maureen O'Sullivan, that's an interesting question & would make a difference to us voters. I'm just a bit wary of SF, as I'm old enough to remember all of the atrocities.

I'm very surprised to hear Mary Lou now lives in the constituency, as I thought she was living in Rathmines for the last election. I've never heard anything about her working locally, though she may well have been active around the Ballybough area. I'm still not rating her chances though.

It's a pity Mary Fitz is a member of FF, one wonders whether that party will ever change. Of the Marys, I'd prefer to vote for her rather than Mary Lou as I don't agree with SF policies, and that's my choice.

Over the next few weeks I'm going to examine closely all of the parties' policies. I don't think any of us can afford to make any mistakes in who we vote in for the next government!

General Election 2011 - Dublin Central thread

Comments