Article: Government to outline €39.4bn capital plan

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Thats just Dempsey protecting his seat because this project is in his constituency. He says the project will go ahead once the railway order is granted. It is unlikely he will be Minister for Transport when it is granted (mainly because it is very unlikely FF will be in government) and a Minister for Transport from anywhere other than Meath (be they FF or not) will axe this project straight away, not that they will have to because as it currently stands the project is already axed.

spacetweek wrote: »

I remember us talking about that but I thought it turned out there were underbridges for the railway at Cannistown. So are there or aren't there?

OPINION: The Government is putting too many of its transport investment eggs in the wrong basket, writes FRANK McDONALD

SKEWED NOTIONS permeate the transport section of the Government’s revised public capital investment priorities, published this week. But it is clear that Fianna Fáil and the Green Party is putting nearly all of its public transport eggs into a basket containing two major rail projects – Metro North and Dart Underground.

“Having successfully focused on the delivery of major roads infrastructure over the past decade or so,” says the document from the Department of Finance (by building motorways to beat the band), “the focus of investment in transport infrastructure will increasingly shift towards public transport” between now and 2016.

In their renewed Programme for government last October, Fianna Fáil and the Greens pledged that sustainability and climate change would be “at the heart of our plan for national recovery”, as expressed in their revised public capital investment priorities – published on Monday by the Department of Finance.

But the 115-page document mentions climate change only in the context of forestry’s usefulness to Ireland as a carbon sink for offsetting our emissions. Its evaluation criteria merely includes a question about whether any proposed investment would “contribute to the development of the Green and/or smart economy”.

This rather nebulous goal would apparently be advanced by the two big-ticket public transport projects: Dart Underground, a twin-bore tunnel linking Heuston Station with the docklands, with intervening stations at the Civic Offices, St Stephen’s Green and Pearse Station; and Metro North, linking Swords with St Stephen’s Green. As planned by the Railway Procurement Agency, Metro North was to be the first phase of a metro system for Dublin. But the only other line proposed, Metro West (an orbital route linking Tallaght, Clondalkin, Blanchardstown and Ballymun), has now been put on the back-burner. So all we’re left with is a single 18km line.

This would run from little-known and virtually unpopulated Bellinstown, north of Swords, underground through Dublin airport and then via Ballymun, Dublin City University, the Mater hospital, Parnell Square and O’Connell Bridge, terminating at St Stephen’s Green. Most of it would be in a twin-bore tunnel, with the rest running overground. Given that these two projects would obviously consume the lion’s share of €5.7 billion allocated for public transport investment over the next six years, it is quite extraordinary that no rationale for going ahead with them – as opposed to street-level Luas lines, for example – is given by the Department of Finance.

All it says is that “the Renewed Programme for Government commits to the advancement of Metro North and Dart Underground projects and, accordingly, the reprioritised envelope set out for the Department of Transport also includes the upfront exchequer funding for these projects”. In other words, they’re “done deals” – and that’s it.

There is no mention in the document of the strategic importance of Dart Underground in terms of integrating the disparate collection of suburban rail services and turning them into a network. Neither is there any reference to the still-unpublished cost/benefit analysis of Metro North or to the number of passengers it is likely to carry. By contrast, the Department of Finance enthuses about the billions of euro spent on motorways over the past 10 years, saying “there is strong evidence of a high economic return on this investment”. Not only that. It also says that “the provision of roads needs to be understood as a public utility that requires ongoing State investment”.

With a further €6 billion to be spent on motorways and other roads, the “significant” benefits would include reduced journey times on all major inter-urban routes, such as just two hours from Dublin to Belfast (M1), Dublin to Galway (N4/N6) and Dublin to Limerick (N7), two hours 30 minutes from Dublin to Cork, and 50 minutes from Cork to Limerick.

In every case, these journey times are faster than train services, even though there has been considerable investment in upgrading track and rolling stock on all the main lines. For example, it takes two hours 10 minutes from Dublin to Belfast, two hours 50 minutes from Dublin to Cork, and two hours 40 minutes from Dublin to Galway.

It is no wonder, as the document notes, that rail passenger numbers fell in 2008 and again in 2009. Given that the substantial investment in mainline rail has not been matched by more patronage, it says investment should now focus on maintaining infrastructure, removing speed restrictions and carrying out essential safety-related work.

Passenger numbers are also in decline on Luas, falling by one million in 2008 and by nearly two million in 2009. This has given the excuse for saying: “It is therefore reasonable to conclude that no new expansion of capacity on the existing Luas lines should take place in the medium-term as existing capacity will be sufficient to cater for demand.”

That kills off until at least 2016 further consideration of advanced plans to connect the Tallaght and Sandyford lines in the city centre, a new line from Lucan into town and an extension of the Sandyford line beyond Cherrywood to Bray; along with Metro West, these will only be built “when economic circumstances allow and demand necessitates”.

The document is equally gloomy about buses. With passenger numbers down by 4 per cent in 2008 and 10 per cent in 2009, it says: “The contribution of the private sector to providing bus-based transport should be fully explored before any consideration is given to further investment in increasing capacity on the publicly-owned bus fleet.”

Curiously, there is no reference whatever to falling traffic levels on the motorways. The NRA is so embarrassed by the relatively few drivers using the new M3 (cost: €900 million) that it hasn’t published a count. On the N20 (Cork-Limerick) and N21 (Limerick-Kerry) roads, figures show that traffic has dropped by 8 to 10 per cent since 2008.

The decline in public transport (and road) use is a direct result of the recession, of course. As the document says: “A significant fall in house completions and a reduction in numbers of people commuting owing to increasing unemployment will serve to dampen demand for public transport infrastructure in the short to medium term.”

Yet the Government is preparing to take a complete stab in the dark with Metro North, which would be the most expensive public transport project in the history of the State (its estimated price-tag in 2005 was €4.58 billion) – subject to making a final decision after it clears the hurdle of An Bord Pleanála and, presumably, vetting the tenders.

Whatever economic rationale underpins Metro North, this was a project conceived during the boom and based on population (and, therefore, patronage) projections for its corridor that are now wildly unrealistic. Indeed, with so many people now emigrating, it would be prudent to wait for the census next April before making a final decision.

westtip wrote: »

Dempsey should be sacked for his utterances yesterday