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BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

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    #1472
    Dude240502
    Registered Users Posts: 227 ✭✭Dude240502


    It's up to 1.80 do you think you should buy now?


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    #1473
    Didi888
    Closed Accounts Posts: 19 ✭Didi888


    Dude240502 wrote: »
    It's up to 1.80 do you think you should buy now?
    I'm not sure,if the sp is continue going upward, i'm afaird will loose the opportunity. I'm quite confused to buy it now or wait after the right issue.


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    #1474
    Dude240502
    Registered Users Posts: 227 ✭✭Dude240502


    Will shares be diluted in the next few weeks with the rights issue or does this just affect price?


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    #1475
    WooPeeA
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,136 ✭✭✭WooPeeA


    Don't listen to your emotions - listen to your brain. Don't buy when it's rising..


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    #1476
    Didi888
    Closed Accounts Posts: 19 ✭Didi888


    WooPeeA wrote: »
    Don't listen to your emotions - listen to your brain. Don't buy when it's rising..
    any particular reasons? how abt if it is rising and will never stopped?


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    #1477
    Rookster
    Closed Accounts Posts: 331 ✭✭Rookster


    WooPeeA wrote: »
    Don't listen to your emotions - listen to your brain. Don't buy when it's rising..[/
    QUOTE]

    What! Are you mad! You should only buy when they are rising. You should never buy when they are falling.


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    #1478
    Dabhach
    Closed Accounts Posts: 34 ✭Dabhach


    It really all depends on what it is you're after. If you're looking to make a quick buck, then it's just pot luck: buy, don't buy, but don't complain if you get singed. If, on the other hand, you're thinking about a long term, strategic buy in, then now's as good a time as any. Yes, there is a rights issue coming down the line, and how well that's taken up will say a lot about whether or not the bank has stabalized, but if it does well (and I think it will) then the fact that the share price will drop in the wake of the issue should not be of great concern. Even allowing for that, the share price at the moment leaves a huge scope for long term profit. A lot of the problems on stock markets over the past two or three decades has come from the glut of spotty oiks in red braces and stripy shirts who think that spouting a lot of Friedmanite guff about the 'free market' will make them millionaires in six months; what's happened over the last year or two should show you just how bogus that nonsense is. The people who make money on the markets are the ones who are prepared to be patient and who enter with realistic expectations.


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    #1479
    WooPeeA
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,136 ✭✭✭WooPeeA


    Didi888 wrote: »
    any particular reasons? how abt if it is rising and will never stopped?
    It never happened. Even Berkshire Hathaway doesn't rise all the time.
    Didi888 wrote: »
    What! Are you mad! You should only buy when they are rising. You should never buy when they are falling.
    I usually buy shares that are undervalued. They just have to rise some day and they usually do.. Sometimes it takes few weeks sometimes 4 years but they always rise. Patience is your friend.


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    #1480
    WooPeeA
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,136 ✭✭✭WooPeeA


    Yes, there is a rights issue coming down the line, and how well that's taken up will say a lot about whether or not the bank has stabalized, but if it does well (and I think it will) then the fact that the share price will drop in the wake of the issue should not be of great concern.
    I don't think that BOI has such a good perspectives for the long term. Probably better than AIB but still, I think there are better places to invest..

    The problem might be that even though the real estate prices have fallen down a little bit recently the government still tries to keep them higher than they should naturally be..


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    #1481
    neil.p.b
    Registered Users Posts: 926 ✭✭✭neil.p.b


    http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/boi-targeting-83643bn-in-new-capital-to-buy-state-warrants-2132732.html

    "BoI targeting €3bn in new capital to buy state warrants

    By Joe Brennan

    Saturday April 10 2010

    Bank of Ireland (BoI) is planning to raise a higher-than-expected €3bn-plus as it seeks to buy out the Government's right to take a quarter stake in the group in four years' time, the Irish Independent has learned.

    It marks an increase from the €2.7bn signalled by Finance Minister Brian Lenihan last week in his watershed speech on the future of the banking sector.

    As previously reported by the Irish Independent, the largest and most complicated capital-raising deal in Irish corporate history would involve three strands.

    These include a €1.5bn-plus rights issue, fully guaranteed by four investment banks; a conversion of up to €1bn of the State's €3.5bn of preference shares in BoI into ordinary shares; and a €500m debt-for-equity swap involving some of the group's riskier bonds.

    The group, headed by Richie Boucher, plans to use some of the proceeds to buy back the Government's warrants -- entitling it to acquire 335m shares, or a 25pc stake, in 2014.

    Unusually, negotiations with the Department of Finance currently centre on paying market prices for the warrants, rather than also considering how the value of the shares might rise over the next four years.

    Derivatives

    This would normally be calculated under the so-called Black-Scholes model for pricing derivatives.

    According to current market prices, the payment could end up between €450m and €500m.

    This is based on the difference between the price at which the State would be entitled to buy the shares, at an average of 37c-apiece, and the current trading price, at about €1.75.

    This part of the deal is likely to raise objections from opposition parties, who could argue that BoI could end up taking out the warrants on the cheap.

    However, it is countered by the fact that the State would be allowed to convert its preference shares into ordinary stock at a deep discount to current trading prices, according to sources.

    And, crucially, market players say BoI would not have been able to attract investment banks to underwrite a rights issue if it had not been able to demonstrate how it can avoid majority state ownership.

    "A failed rights issue would lead to the Government having to pump further billions into Bank of Ireland. Whereas, as things stand, Bank of Ireland currently is the only lender in the country that stands a chance of returning some money any time soon," said a senior Dublin-based fund manager.

    Observers believe announcements during the week on BoI's plans to deal with the group's €1.6bn pension deficit and raise mortgage rates were carefully timed to show shareholders that the bank is getting its house in order before going cap-in-hand to shareholders.

    Meanwhile, BoI is awaiting the all-important outcome of its EU state-aid restructuring plan.

    People familiar with the situation have said that Brussels has hardened its stance in recent months, pressing BoI to agree to the sale of the group's UK business bank and broker-sourced mortgage book.

    There are also concerns that the European Commission may spring a few surprises on BoI as negotiations enter the final stages over the next weeks.

    Market players are concerned, in particular, about the future of the bank's life and pensions operations.

    - Joe Brennan

    Irish Independent
    "


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    #1482
    Dude240502
    Registered Users Posts: 227 ✭✭Dude240502


    Why do you expect share prices to fall after the announcement of the rights issue?


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    #1483
    Blackjack
    Registered Users Posts: 3,593 ✭✭✭Blackjack


    Dude240502 wrote: »
    Why do you expect share prices to fall after the announcement of the rights issue?

    Dilution.


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    #1484
    Dude240502
    Registered Users Posts: 227 ✭✭Dude240502


    Do you think it would mean immediate dilution or just announcement of what is to come?


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    #1485
    Blackjack
    Registered Users Posts: 3,593 ✭✭✭Blackjack


    price wish, it would be fairly immediate as the rights issue gets "priced in".


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    #1486
    Dude240502
    Registered Users Posts: 227 ✭✭Dude240502


    Does anyone still see the share price rising before this announcement?


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    #1487
    Dude240502
    Registered Users Posts: 227 ✭✭Dude240502


    neil.p.b wrote: »
    http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/boi-targeting-83643bn-in-new-capital-to-buy-state-warrants-2132732.html

    "BoI targeting €3bn in new capital to buy state warrants

    By Joe Brennan

    Saturday April 10 2010

    Bank of Ireland (BoI) is planning to raise a higher-than-expected €3bn-plus as it seeks to buy out the Government's right to take a quarter stake in the group in four years' time, the Irish Independent has learned.

    It marks an increase from the €2.7bn signalled by Finance Minister Brian Lenihan last week in his watershed speech on the future of the banking sector.

    As previously reported by the Irish Independent, the largest and most complicated capital-raising deal in Irish corporate history would involve three strands.

    These include a €1.5bn-plus rights issue, fully guaranteed by four investment banks; a conversion of up to €1bn of the State's €3.5bn of preference shares in BoI into ordinary shares; and a €500m debt-for-equity swap involving some of the group's riskier bonds.

    The group, headed by Richie Boucher, plans to use some of the proceeds to buy back the Government's warrants -- entitling it to acquire 335m shares, or a 25pc stake, in 2014.

    Unusually, negotiations with the Department of Finance currently centre on paying market prices for the warrants, rather than also considering how the value of the shares might rise over the next four years.

    Derivatives

    This would normally be calculated under the so-called Black-Scholes model for pricing derivatives.

    According to current market prices, the payment could end up between €450m and €500m.

    This is based on the difference between the price at which the State would be entitled to buy the shares, at an average of 37c-apiece, and the current trading price, at about €1.75.

    This part of the deal is likely to raise objections from opposition parties, who could argue that BoI could end up taking out the warrants on the cheap.

    However, it is countered by the fact that the State would be allowed to convert its preference shares into ordinary stock at a deep discount to current trading prices, according to sources.

    And, crucially, market players say BoI would not have been able to attract investment banks to underwrite a rights issue if it had not been able to demonstrate how it can avoid majority state ownership.

    "A failed rights issue would lead to the Government having to pump further billions into Bank of Ireland. Whereas, as things stand, Bank of Ireland currently is the only lender in the country that stands a chance of returning some money any time soon," said a senior Dublin-based fund manager.

    Observers believe announcements during the week on BoI's plans to deal with the group's €1.6bn pension deficit and raise mortgage rates were carefully timed to show shareholders that the bank is getting its house in order before going cap-in-hand to shareholders.

    Meanwhile, BoI is awaiting the all-important outcome of its EU state-aid restructuring plan.

    People familiar with the situation have said that Brussels has hardened its stance in recent months, pressing BoI to agree to the sale of the group's UK business bank and broker-sourced mortgage book.

    There are also concerns that the European Commission may spring a few surprises on BoI as negotiations enter the final stages over the next weeks.

    Market players are concerned, in particular, about the future of the bank's life and pensions operations.

    - Joe Brennan

    Irish Independent
    "


    Do you think this will affect share prices either way on Monday?


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    #1488
    ranger4
    Registered Users Posts: 1,368 ✭✭✭ranger4


    With possitive news that bkir wants to raise enough capital to reduce gov stake in bank along with good news of EU agreement of Actual economic plan for greece i feel we could see nice bounce in morning and with no negitive news could see bkir break 1.90 this week.


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    #1489
    Dude240502
    Registered Users Posts: 227 ✭✭Dude240502


    Does anyone else think this?


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    #1490
    Dude240502
    Registered Users Posts: 227 ✭✭Dude240502


    Apart from the article in the Independent on Saturday, was there anything else in the news that would be a reason for BOI to rise or fall?


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    #1491
    Idu
    Registered Users Posts: 1,152 ✭✭✭Idu


    Are you trying to ask the same question in as many different ways as possible or something?


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    #1492
    RoadKillTs
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,710 ✭✭✭RoadKillTs


    was there anything else in the news that would be a reason for BOI to rise or fall?

    Eh ya actually there was ya. A big write up in the SBP about how BOI havent a chance in raising the required captial. I predict a 8% fall this week and there is a good chance it will be sunny tomorrow.
    Does anyone else think this?

    Would you seriously base your investing decisions based on what you read on an internet forum?


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    #1493
    Dude240502
    Registered Users Posts: 227 ✭✭Dude240502


    Would you seriously base your investing decisions based on what you read on an internet forum?[/QUOTE]

    No, but I'd still like to hear other people thoughts


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    #1494
    Dabhach
    Closed Accounts Posts: 34 ✭Dabhach


    Unfortunately, most internet forums are about showing how achingly smart you are, rather than addressing the issue the board is nominally about. Personally, I don't see anything wrong with enquiring about other people's thoughts on an issue. Most supposedly 'professional' financial advisors are merely agents for various finance houses, so after a fashion, it actually makes some sense to use an internet forum where there is no financial incentive to advise one way or the other.


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    #1495
    pocketdooz
    Registered Users Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭pocketdooz


    No offense Dude but you have 45 posts and between 30 - 40 of them are variations of the question - "which way are BOI shares going today and tomorrow". these questions are monotonous, serve no purpose because nobody knows (all here are just guessing wildly), take up space, discourage others from reading this Board thread and will not help you learn anything about investing .... in the last month you've posted the Q 23 times

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/search.php?searchid=11559948

    it just gets boring, distracting and pointless, I think that is what the above posters are getting at.

    why not read up on the Company yourself or ask some constructive questions to help you learn ?

    Anything you want can be posted here and people will try and answer if they know but you should try and learn from this forum and not just treat as a crystal ball which is it isn't (IMO of course, best of luck, I hope you make money etc etc)

    .


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    #1496
    Raskolnikov
    Registered Users Posts: 10,148 ✭✭✭✭Raskolnikov


    pocketdooz wrote: »
    it just gets boring, distracting and pointless, I think that is what the above posters are getting at.

    why not read up on the Company yourself or ask some constructive questions to help you learn ?
    Par for the course around these parts these days!

    I've no problem with beginners coming on here looking for advice or wanting to learn, but the sheer number of idiots who post here looking for something for nothing, without wanting to do any work is really getting tiresome. These are the kind of people who think an annual report is a brochure they get from the travel agents to pick their holidays, and a discounted cash flow is just another name for a bank overdraft.

    We need to see some serious moderation here.


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    #1497
    Raskolnikov
    Registered Users Posts: 10,148 ✭✭✭✭Raskolnikov


    Dabhach wrote: »
    Unfortunately, most internet forums are about showing how achingly smart you are, rather than addressing the issue the board is nominally about. Personally, I don't see anything wrong with enquiring about other people's thoughts on an issue. Most supposedly 'professional' financial advisors are merely agents for various finance houses, so after a fashion, it actually makes some sense to use an internet forum where there is no financial incentive to advise one way or the other.
    There are 50 pages on this tread, but I have yet to see a single independent post that has a proper, bottom-up analysis on why Bank of Ireland would be worth buying.


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    #1498
    alexlyons
    Registered Users Posts: 2,182 ✭✭✭alexlyons


    Well i bought them at 1.11 in december 08 or there abouts, they doubled that a while ago, late last year or so, i sold half of them, so now i'm looking at pure profit rising nicely... reason enough to have bought them, nobody can predict the future though...


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    #1499
    rugbyman
    Registered Users Posts: 1,783 ✭✭✭rugbyman


    with respect Raskolnikov

    you suggest
    "We need to see some serious moderation here. "

    some serious contributions might be better.

    By the way ,in that regard, is there/are there any other Irish based discussion forums where I might find any debate worth reading and perhaps learning from.
    I have looked at askabout money, perhaps not enough, but it did not appear any better?
    Rugbyman


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    #1500
    displaced dub
    Registered Users Posts: 766 ✭✭✭displaced dub


    rugbyman wrote: »
    with respect Raskolnikov

    you suggest
    "We need to see some serious moderation here. "

    some serious contributions might be better.

    By the way ,in that regard, is there/are there any other Irish based discussion forums where I might find any debate worth reading and perhaps learning from.
    I have looked at askabout money, perhaps not enough, but it did not appear any better?
    Rugbyman

    i agree its gone a bit quite here... last year there were excellent posts not so much in the last few months though.


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    #1501
    displaced dub
    Registered Users Posts: 766 ✭✭✭displaced dub


    Dude240502 wrote: »
    Does anyone still see the share price rising before this announcement?

    Dude grow a pair of balls and roll the dice instead of asking the same question over and over and over again.... Bank shares a currently a gamble so go on roll the dice and stop talking about it.


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