Won't ever own a house !!

MarinoMark · 30-05-2006 12:36pm #1

Just listened to news at one, house prices have shot up quicker this Quarter then any time in the last 6 years. by the years end average gaff in Dublin will be 400k. Fcuk that ,Rent forever, have been saving and saving, its like being up the mountains, seeing the top, getting there, and seeing another higher mountain just as you reach the peak !! Thinking of (A)...handing in my notice and emigrate with my 35k savings.....(B)..Buy a nice car, and start going out again...my sex life might improve...(C)..keep saving and hope prices will drop.....oh look.... a flying pig !....(A) is favorite at the moment.....:(

hmmm · 30-05-2006 12:37pm

Why are you so desperate to own a house?

podgewalsh · 30-05-2006 12:38pm

Would you consider commuting like may others do to get on the property ladder ?

MarinoMark · 30-05-2006 12:40pm

dont want to have to come up with monthly rent in my 70s..want a family...want a home for them...Its nice to have a home etc...Need any more reasons ??:eek:

base2 · 30-05-2006 12:43pm

But you don't have a family now so why the need to own?

Personally I'd go with the first choice. Irelands houses are overpriced and I pity of the sad people who commute from the back of Kildare in their ****ty little semis. What life do they have?

ambro25 · 30-05-2006 12:45pm

MarinoMark wrote:

Its nice to have a home etc

Where are you living now? Under a bridge? :rolleyes: It's not because the pad you're in now isn't yours that you can't make it 'homely'... The same goes for as and when you have a family, if you don't own a house by then. You'd think it was more important for some people to get on the property ladder than having a family and enjoying their lives

bringitdown · 30-05-2006 12:58pm

LEMMINGS! ... Just consider the quality of life you have now - would adding a house, mortgage, etc. etc. improve your current situation?

jobless · 30-05-2006 1:01pm

MarinoMark wrote:

Just listened to news at one, house prices have shot up quicker this Quarter then any time in the last 6 years. by the years end average gaff in Dublin will be 400k. Fcuk that ,Rent forever, have been saving and saving, its like being up the mountains, seeing the top, getting there, and seeing another higher mountain just as you reach the peak !! Thinking of (A)...handing in my notice and emigrate with my 35k savings.....(B)..Buy a nice car, and start going out again...my sex life might improve...(C)..keep saving and hope prices will drop.....oh look.... a flying pig !....(A) is favorite at the moment.....:(

Although i never thought of emigrating before i've been thinking about it more regularly. The price of houses in this country have become a bad joke and thoughts (as a first time buyer) of having to pay a mortgage for 35 (even 40) years is a very daunting prospect. You could still be paying your mortgage when your past retirement age!, if you live that long.....

Are there any other people thinking the same?......

bringitdown · 30-05-2006 1:07pm

jobless wrote:

Are there any other people thinking the same?......

Yup! I don't *want* to leave Ireland but I cannot believe a 3 bed semi in the arsehole of nowhere is worth my money and the lack of long term rental options is a farce. So I can see it happening at some stage.

FillSpectre · 30-05-2006 2:36pm

I still don't get this.

If you are trying to buy a 3 bed house on your own for "future" plans you are mad.

People aren't getting married and seatling down and haven't been for a while. I am 32 out of my school friends I am in touch with the general picture I get is 60% are seatled down with a partner. Thaat mean the other 40% are not and don't need a 3 bed house. I am not over the hill but if you haven't got somebody at this age it is less likely you will, not impossible just difficult. Kids become a distant hope quickly after that.

Our parents genration were gaurenteed to marry and have kids that is no longer the case. I would say a 20 year old now is less likely to get married and have kids than I was 12 years ago.

Society has moved on why are people trying to live their lives like their parents when they live in a different culture with different expectations in life.

Travel and meet people and maybe you will realise that elsewhere in the world people are not trying to buy a 3 bed house for themself in the hope they will meet somebody and have kids. The reality is you aren't likely to get there.

A friend of mine is now a desperate 30 something woman trying to meet a father for a child she wants while she spent the last 10 years trying to prove she is as good as any man and sacrificed her personal life to do it. She has a house though. The difficult thing to find is the person not the house

THe objective in life is to be happy and content not to own a house.

Idleater · 30-05-2006 2:41pm

To the opinion that houses are very expensive, there are 5 pages of properties on myhome.ie in "dublin city and county" that have a maximum price of €250k.

Granted im sure there are some "sites" but it shows that you can get property in dublin for less than the €400k average.

L.

Saruman · 30-05-2006 2:47pm

podgewalsh wrote:

Would you consider commuting like may others do to get on the property ladder ?

buy in westmeath! I get home quicker than a lot of Dubliners since i moved there

Oh and i work in Dublin!!

last year 3 bed DETACHED bungalow was 190k (1080 sq ft)

base2 · 30-05-2006 2:50pm

Do you not think there is something wrong in living so far away from the place you work?

Lex Luthor · 30-05-2006 3:01pm

nereid wrote:

To the opinion that houses are very expensive, there are 5 pages of properties on myhome.ie in "dublin city and county" that have a maximum price of €250k.

Granted im sure there are some "sites" but it shows that you can get property in dublin for less than the €400k average.

L.

I'd have to agree here....the avg price quoted is for a 3 bed semi....

are you in a relationship? do you need a 3 bed semi right now?

could you not afford a 3 bed semi right now and rent out the 2 rooms and use that income to help pay the mortgage? You have good savings so I would say you are not yet outpriced in buying something.

FillSpectre · 30-05-2006 3:02pm

base2 wrote:

Do you not think there is something wrong in living so far away from the place you work?

Sod work how about stuff to do, friends, family and hospitals. Buy a 3 bed house far out and have a sick kid and see what your hour drive feels like when you are trying to get to a hospital.

jobless · 30-05-2006 3:02pm

FillSpectre wrote:

I still don't get this.

If you are trying to buy a 3 bed house on your own for "future" plans you are mad.

People aren't getting married and seatling down and haven't been for a while. I am 32 out of my school friends I am in touch with the general picture I get is 60% are seatled down with a partner. Thaat mean the other 40% are not and don't need a 3 bed house. I am not over the hill but if you haven't got somebody at this age it is less likely you will, not impossible just difficult. Kids become a distant hope quickly after that.

Our parents genration were gaurenteed to marry and have kids that is no longer the case. I would say a 20 year old now is less likely to get married and have kids than I was 12 years ago.

Society has moved on why are people trying to live their lives like their parents when they live in a different culture with different expectations in life.

Travel and meet people and maybe you will realise that elsewhere in the world people are not trying to buy a 3 bed house for themself in the hope they will meet somebody and have kids. The reality is you aren't likely to get there.

A friend of mine is now a desperate 30 something woman trying to meet a father for a child she wants while she spent the last 10 years trying to prove she is as good as any man and sacrificed her personal life to do it. She has a house though. The difficult thing to find is the person not the house

THe objective in life is to be happy and content not to own a house.

Who said he was trying to buy a three bedroomed house?.......apartment prices are almost as bad and there doesnt seem to be any let up......

Why do you think you will be less likely to meet some when your in your thirties?.....after all by your reckoning there are 40% of people still out there unattached.....as for kids......women of all ages seem to be having them these days!

bill_ashmount · 30-05-2006 4:17pm

FillSpectre wrote:

I am not over the hill but if you haven't got somebody at this age it is less likely you will, not impossible just difficult.

What planet are you living on :rolleyes:

Lex Luthor · 30-05-2006 5:15pm

jobless wrote:

Who said he was trying to buy a three bedroomed house?.......apartment prices are almost as bad and there doesnt seem to be any let up......

Why do you think you will be less likely to meet some when your in your thirties?.....after all by your reckoning there are 40% of people still out there unattached.....as for kids......women of all ages seem to be having them these days!

I think it was based on a report out today that the avg house price in Dublin which is based on a 3 bed semi is almost 400k.

MrPudding · 30-05-2006 6:42pm

nereid wrote:

Granted im sure there are some "sites" but it shows that you can get property in dublin for less than the €400k average.

L.

I hate to point out the obvious but if the average is 400k then of course there will be some for less than 400k, or else that wouldn't be the average.

All he is saying is that he would like to buy a decent house in a decent area and not pay through the nose for it. I want the same. I want to own a house and be able to work on it and make it my own.

I do not want to rent a house for the rest of my life and not do the thing I want to it cos at the end of the day it ain't mine.

Some of you are happy to rent forever, fine. Some of us want to buy.

MrP

DublinWriter · 30-05-2006 7:24pm

MarinoMark wrote:

handing in my notice and emigrate with my 35k savings

As one of the posters said, buy in West/Meath.

I bought a 100 Sq. Metre 4 bed-semi D in a small town just outside Asbourne 2 years ago fof €235K. Had it valued recently at €350K.

It takes me 40 mins to hit Dublin City Centre if I go the M1 or an hour if I go via the N2.

Plus it has IMHO one of the best take-out pizzarias outside of Italy!

There's lots of bargains to be had in Meath/West Meath if you look carefully and lots of new apartments in Ashbourne.

I'd be a bit leary anywhere out Kildare way. The RedCow is already a car-park and Adamstown will just compound the problem.

Personally I think you'll be in la-la-denial-land if you think that they'll be a dramatic crash here anytime soon. I was thinking the same when I got back here from London in 2001 and I held off a bit too long.

whizzbang · 31-05-2006 3:18am

I think the current surge in house prices is the last crazyness before it all falls apart. Add to this increasing interest rates and fewer and fewer people ebing able to afford their first property I reckon we will see a turnaround in 12 to 18 months.

Don't believe anyone who says there will be a soft landing, no property market has ever had a soft landing after such an increase as ours.

FillSpectre · 31-05-2006 7:03am

jobless wrote:

Who said he was trying to buy a three bedroomed house?.......apartment prices are almost as bad and there doesnt seem to be any let up......

Well he quoted the figure of a average 3 bed semi. People were talking about 3 bed semis so I spoke about what was being spoken about.
Appartment can cost as much as houses but they are consideribly cheaper as a general rule and aren't "almost as bad".

jobless wrote:

Why do you think you will be less likely to meet some when your in your thirties?.....after all by your reckoning there are 40% of people still out there unattached.....as for kids......women of all ages seem to be having them these days!

Well when you are in your 30s and single maybe you can tell me how difficult it is. All my single friends keep telling me how hard it is. A big factor is when your friends seatle down they don't go out as much or socialise in the same way. A simple way to look at it is at what age do the majority of people get married and have children. If there are less in their 30s my point is proved but I am sure you would accept that less people in their 40s get married and have kids why so hard to see that it doesn't just happen at 40 it is a progressive thing.

You can have kids up at any age up to 63 as proved the reality is however that you are less likely to be able to ave children unassisted. IVF and the like are very very expensive.

You want to believe you have the same chances in life as you get older fine for you that is not the reality. The richer a country gets the less children are born this is a reality some of it is down to samller family sizes but also down to less couples. Certain lifestyles are now accepted so more single people. Single parents, gay people, serial monogomy etc... all have an effect on chances of meeting somebody. THe odds have changed and many people are trying to get through life on the odds that their parents had. In fact they are expecting the same property as their parents and childhood home regardless of their situation IMHO. The lack of imagination and desire is quite sad.

whizzbang · 31-05-2006 7:11am

FillSpectre wrote:

The richer a country gets the less children are born this is a reality some of it is down to samller family sizes but also down to less couples. Certain lifestyles are now accepted so more single people. Single parents, gay people, serial monogomy etc... all have an effect on chances of meeting somebody.

I'm afraid we are not following this trend in Ireland, there is currently a baby boom on. http://www.cso.ie/statistics/popnbyage2002.htm

cee_jay · 31-05-2006 7:18am

FillSpectre wrote:

Sod work how about stuff to do, friends, family and hospitals. Buy a 3 bed house far out and have a sick kid and see what your hour drive feels like when you are trying to get to a hospital.

There is stuff outside Dublin you know - its not as if as soon as you cross over the border there is no more shops, pubs, hospitals etc! :rolleyes:

As a previous poster said, the 400k is just an average price - you can get cheaper than this - but you do have to compromise - and its up to each individual how much they will compromise by, if that means buying something smaller than you wanted, living in an area they wouldn't have considered before, communting from Meath etc.

FillSpectre · 31-05-2006 8:55am

whizzbang wrote:

I'm afraid we are not following this trend in Ireland, there is currently a baby boom on. http://www.cso.ie/statistics/popnbyage2002.htm

The correct thing to check is birth ratio of child baring age adults to birth rate. You don't have to believe me but if you are going to challange the view with stats use the correct ones. Birth ratio is down AFAIK. The increse in imigration has apparently effected birth rates as certain cultures value children so much. In italy where the birth rate doesn't match the needed replenishment rate imigration is acknowledged as the key reason the figure isn't worse.
The culture has changed yet some people want to have the same housing that suited the last generation, that is iimpracticle unsustainable and futile as far I can see. Marriage are down and single parents are up over the last 50 years why do people want 3 bed houses? They don't need them.

cAr0l wrote:

There is stuff outside Dublin you know - its not as if as soon as you cross over the border there is no more shops, pubs, hospitals etc!

Yes but around Dublin most things are more centralised as the idea is people can travel to Dublin. Your friends and family however don't suddenly move when you move. Selection is greatly reduced the further from the main cities and very noticably further from Dublin. The selection and choice is simple better in cities especially capital ones. Long commutes to everything has a cost in time let alone when car usage gets more expensive.

whizzbang · 31-05-2006 9:09am

FillSpectre wrote:

The correct thing to check is birth ratio of child baring age adults to birth rate. You don't have to believe me but if you are going to challange the view with stats use the correct ones. Birth ratio is down AFAIK.

I'm not sure I get the difference, you are saying that even though we have more babies than 10 year olds, the birthrate it down? And that is all accounted for by immigrents bringing their kids in?

FillSpectre · 31-05-2006 9:41am

whizzbang wrote:

I'm not sure I get the difference, you are saying that even though we have more babies than 10 year olds, the birthrate it down? And that is all accounted for by immigrents bringing their kids in?

What I am saying is there are more adults about now hence there are more babies, the total is bigger yes. The number of babies per child baring adults however is down.
You don't even need figures as such just think about it.

60 years ago people were getting married more and having bigger families. Just look at your own family and thoses you know. My gran had 10 kids, my mum had 3, I have none, my brother has none and never will and my sister has 2. A huge drop in birth ratio. THere are exceptions but it is obvious families are smaller now or do you think people are having more kids now?

The richer a country gets the birth ratio drops, increased imigration has increased our population and also our birth rate and therfore effects the birth ratio but it is still lower than 60 years ago. Money brings birth control, eduction, lower child mortality rates etc... all intun reduce family size.

Idleater · 31-05-2006 10:19am

MrPudding wrote:

I hate to point out the obvious but if the average is 400k then of course there will be some for less than 400k, or else that wouldn't be the average.

You are absolutely correct - that is the way averages work.

I could also argue that because 73% of statistics are made up on the spot, the €400k figure is completely inaccurate because it generalises figures across dublin (including highly inflated markets such as Ballsbridge etc).

The Average price of €400k will not buy much in some places, but it will certainly buy a lot in others.

I therefore stand by my original comments. There are properties available at an attainable price. Just because people want to have everything a la:

MrPudding wrote:

...would like to buy a decent house in a decent area... /quote]

instead of buying what they actually currently need and or can afford.

What is more a pertinant question to the OP is why do people in society want to have everything in one go? Why not live in a city apartment when they are single/partnered with no children? What is wrong with buying in a council estate, in a not so popular area and putting their own stamp on the property? Why do they need a 06 car? Why do they need to eat out for lunch and dinner every night? Why the 42" plasma tv? It is this attidude of needing everything perfect in one go that is causing the grossly inflated prices in some areas.

It is a property ladder, which means that you can climb it rung by rung. To continue the analagy, the more people try to skip steps, the greater the risk of falling and hurting themselves.

L.

hmmm · 31-05-2006 6:58pm

nereid wrote:

What is wrong with buying in a council estate, in a not so popular area and putting their own stamp on the property? Why do they need a 06 car?

It is a property ladder, which means that you can climb it rung by rung. To continue the analagy, the more people try to skip steps, the greater the risk of falling and hurting themselves.
L.

As we are heading into the inevitable house price fall, people should be careful about where they buy. If you are in a position of negative equity, you will be all but prevented from selling your house and moving elsewhere. People who are being fed this bull about "property ladder" and are buying houses in places they hate will be in trouble.

In the UK, they were the first group to hand back the keys to the mortgage lenders and accept a life of crippling debt.

garred · 31-05-2006 7:27pm

hmmm wrote:

As we are heading into the inevitable house price fall

DublinWriter · 31-05-2006 7:27pm

hmmm wrote:

As we are heading into the inevitable house price fall

Says who exactly?

hmmm wrote:

In the UK, they were the first group to hand back the keys to the mortgage lenders and accept a life of crippling debt.

Do you know any of the circumstances around the 1990 Sterling crash? George Soros? Interest rates going up 4 times in one day?

Probably not, because if you did you'd realise that those who managed to weather that storm are now sitting on some seriously valuable property.

Crash or no crash, anything you buy now will be worth seriously more in 25/30 years time.

Bottom line: you never lose money on bricks and mortar in the long run.

Sarn · 31-05-2006 7:50pm

I have currently given up looking (and I was only looking for a 1 bed apartment). The amount of debt I would be in for a property that I would only be buying out of desperation (and stretching myself for), coupled with a massive decrease in my quality of life has made me decide that renting is the option for the short term.

With interest rates set to rise by .25 or .5% next week and further hikes on the way, renting in a great location for a lot less appeals to me more. Recent investors who aren't covering their repayments with rent and find themselves having to cover it more and more themselves are going to start finding it tough.

Basically I'm taking a wait and see attitude, yes, I know there are people who have been waiting for years for things to turn around. But the recent past has had historically low interest rates which are currently changing. Ultimately I'd rather a reasonable quality of life over a shoebox/massive commute without the fear of worrying about making my next mortgage repayment.

hmmm · 31-05-2006 11:22pm

DublinWriter wrote:

Crash or no crash, anything you buy now will be worth seriously more in 25/30 years time.Bottom line: you never lose money on bricks and mortar in the long run.

Because of inflation you will never lose nominal money on anything over 25/30 years, all you can do is compare returns on investment types over that period. In the past 25/30 years, the return on equities has exceeded the return on property. I appreciate you are perhaps one of these new breed of property investors who believe that what we have seen over the past 5 years will continue indefinately, if so good luck to you.

Also, I'm afraid you are mixing up your ERM history with the UK house price crash of the 1990s. Please try and do some basic research before you start trying to patronise people.

DublinWriter · 31-05-2006 11:43pm

hmmm wrote:

Because of inflation you will never lose nominal money on anything over 25/30 years,

Wrong. Worse case scenario is that property prices just *match* inflation.

Go look at property prices 25/30 years ago and see what you could have won.

Go find me an equity that would have matched that growth and I'll get you a Blue Peter badge.

hmmm wrote:

Also, I'm afraid you are mixing up your ERM history with the UK house price crash of the 1990s. Please try and do some basic research before you start trying to patronise people.

Yawn. Google it yourself. Geroge Soros dumps huges amounts of Sterling on the International Currency markets in a 24 hour period....Sterling gets devalued.....LaMont has to put up interest rates 4 times in one day to keep Sterling in the ECU band....as he said himself, it was a 'Blip', but a blip that knocked many mortage owners right out of the market in the short term...and the long term effect was that property in London has suddenly became so affordable these days!...........not.

Unfortunately, a lot of people are waiting for the same 'blip' here in Ireland these days.

Dream on.

Lex Luthor · 01-06-2006 6:09am

hmmm wrote:

As we are heading into the inevitable house price fall

I hardly think so....maybe a slow down...people feeling a bit in the pocket from interest rate hikes, but they thought the recent rate hikes would slow things down and it hasn't, so it will take interest rates to hit 7-8% maybe more before house prices will get hit

The_Conductor · 01-06-2006 7:01am

DublinWriter wrote:

Wrong. Worse case scenario is that property prices just *match* inflation.

Go look at property prices 25/30 years ago and see what you could have won.

Go find me an equity that would have matched that growth and I'll get you a Blue Peter badge.

An equity that not only matched that growth, but over doubled it and is still ontrack for a 7.5-8% return on CAR increases of 2% over the next 10 years is forestry. Over the last 200 years forestry has returned an average of 5% over the rate of inflation in the northern hemisphere. There are equities out there that do consistently achieve..... Better get battering away there on the Blue Peter badge..... I have to admit an interest in forestry- I did my undergrad degree in it 10 years ago.

DublinWriter wrote:

hmmm wrote:

As we are heading into the inevitable house price fall
Says who exactly?

That would be the OECD. We are currently considered the third most likely market in the world for property to collapse (Denmark is considered 100% likely to collapse- we will not be in a similar position unless interest rates rise by 1%, a not unrealistic expectation). The OECD published an exhaustive report on this about 10 days ago. I will try to find a link to it for you.

hmmm wrote:

Because of inflation you will never lose nominal money on anything over 25/30 years, all you can do is compare returns on investment types over that period. In the past 25/30 years, the return on equities has exceeded the return on property. I appreciate you are perhaps one of these new breed of property investors who believe that what we have seen over the past 5 years will continue indefinately, if so good luck to you.

In most cases true, but not always. There are a number of markets which have suffered from massive deflationary pressures, particularly over the last 15 years. The obvious candidate for this is Japan. Real asset prices dropped by over 90% in places. Consumption collapsed- why would people buy property or indeed any consumer goods, when it would cost so much less in the very near future. This did have a few unintended consequences- including the spawning of the Freecycle movement. Government initiatives to inject massive amounts of liquidity into the market had worse than zero effect- they simply substituted local products for imports, raising unemployment levels, and further depressing the local market.

Lex Luthor wrote:

I hardly think so....maybe a slow down...people feeling a bit in the pocket from interest rate hikes, but they thought the recent rate hikes would slow things down and it hasn't, so it will take interest rates to hit 7-8% maybe more before house prices will get hit

Once again- according to the OECD, the tipping point for the Irish housing market is considered to be one ECB percentage point rise above current levels. This is now expected to be reached possibly by the end of the year or early next spring. This translates into mortgage interest rates of about
4.25-4.5%, not 7 or 8%. Time will tell of course.

With interest rates set to rise by .25 or .5% next week and further hikes on the way, renting in a great location for a lot less appeals to me more. Recent investors who aren't covering their repayments with rent and find themselves having to cover it more and more themselves are going to start finding it tough.

Sarn wrote:

Basically I'm taking a wait and see attitude, yes, I know there are people who have been waiting for years for things to turn around. But the recent past has had historically low interest rates which are currently changing. Ultimately I'd rather a reasonable quality of life over a shoebox/massive commute without the fear of worrying about making my next mortgage repayment.

It is now fundamentally cheaper to rent than to buy. My mortgage is not excessive, but the interest component of it is now about 20% greater than the rental income potential (next door, an identical property is rented out- it was bought 2 years ago, and the landlord is not meeting his mortgage payments by over 250 a month). If I rented I would have perhaps 500 Euro a month in higher disposable income than I have at present. The AIB advertisements for 100% mortgages with the byline "Yes, you can have a mortgage and a life......" are plain crazy. There is no such thing as money for nothing. Why do people not get this into their heads.

I give up.

Ps- SSIA is not money for nothing. Its bribery by the government to try and ingratiate themselves with the electorate and distract us from their incompetence. Its not free money either- its tax payers money- that is money from you and me. The government does not give us anything- it takes money from us and decides how to distribute it. Nothing is free, ever.

FillSpectre · 01-06-2006 8:58am

Smccarick

OCEB have been continuely wrong on the subject so becasue they say it doesn't make it happen. It is speculation that they do get wrong. I do think a change is likely but of the people to trust they don't have my faith. THe focus of the change on price alone is flawed IMHO.

There are more adults living at home now AFAIK. I think that is a reserve likely to keep prices from plumeting. Loads of people are waiting for a turn so they can buy. Do you know any adults living with their parents who don't want to buy a place of their own?

SSIAs were an investment scheme funded by the government. Anything you are stating about it is your personal political view. I know nobody who is saying they will vote them back in becasue of SSIAs. For it to be bribery people will have to do something for it, as I have an SSIA and don't plan to vote them back in it isn't a bribe.

whizzbang · 01-06-2006 9:15am

FillSpectre wrote:

There are more adults living at home now AFAIK. I think that is a reserve likely to keep prices from plumeting. Loads of people are waiting for a turn so they can buy. Do you know any adults living with their parents who don't want to buy a place of their own?

I know a few, they cant afford them, if prices were to level off they still couldn't afford them, if prices went down to were they coudl afford them they would wait a bit longer to see if they could get one even cheaper.

I find it hard to believe many people would buy property in a falling market if all the odds were that the price would be significantly cheaper in a year. No matter how sick they living at home they were.

DublinWriter · 01-06-2006 9:19am

It is now fundamentally cheaper to rent than to buy.

Yes, but after 25 years of renting you have what exactly?

whizzbang · 01-06-2006 9:24am

DublinWriter wrote:

Yes, but after 25 years of renting you have what exactly?

you have had a higher standard of living and possibly multiple opportunities to buy property after a reduction in house prices

The_Conductor · 01-06-2006 9:25am

FillSpectre wrote:

Smccarick

OCEB have been continuely wrong on the subject so becasue they say it doesn't make it happen. It is speculation that they do get wrong. I do think a change is likely but of the people to trust they don't have my faith. THe focus of the change on price alone is flawed IMHO.

There are more adults living at home now AFAIK. I think that is a reserve likely to keep prices from plumeting. Loads of people are waiting for a turn so they can buy. Do you know any adults living with their parents who don't want to buy a place of their own?

SSIAs were an investment scheme funded by the government. Anything you are stating about it is your personal political view. I know nobody who is saying they will vote them back in becasue of SSIAs. For it to be bribery people will have to do something for it, as I have an SSIA and don't plan to vote them back in it isn't a bribe.

I know of a lot of adults living at home, certainly. In a lot of cases its a lifestyle choice though- who wouldn't live at home if they could get away without paying a mortgage, having hot meals as required, laundry service etc The only thing they don't have is the privacy of their own property (in so far as privacy exists these days). While Price is a factor- the whole convenience thing is massive too. Parents are worse for letting kids get away with it. I know of one person who is on a salary of over 70k and in his late 30s still living at home because it suits him.

Certainly the OECD have been wrong about many things in the past. The fact that they are part of a cacophony on voices all shrilling the same thing is irrelevant too. What they are saying is from an affordability perspective the average couple will not be able to service the average mortgage on the average house if interest rates go up 1%. This is worrying. Even if it does not immediately impact on house prices, it will on mortgage defaults and repossessions- a slippery slope. This is of course speculation. I'd be more than happy to sit down over a beer in say 2 years time and see what time tells us.

SSIAs were/are an investment scheme funded by the taxpayer. The government funds nothing. The government spends taxpayers money as it sees fit. The idea behind the scheme was to take money out of the economy to prevent it overheating (inflation was in the region of 4% at the time if my memory serves me right and with negative returns on equity in the banks (interest rates below the rate of inflation) no-one was interested in saving. They worked to a certain extent- however we now have inflation rates of 3.6% and those are expected to rise to possibly 4.5% by summer '07. So- in essence they moved the problem into the future rather than dealing with it in the present. Vis-a-vis it being a bribe- it has been described by Bertie as a mechanism to improve consumer confidence going into an election. That in my eyes is an admission of it being at very least a type of bribe- an attempt to influence the public by shovelling money at them (the fact that it is their own money- money collected through higher stealth taxes, seems to have gotten lost in the static somewhere).

Officially I am not allowed to have a political opinion. I too have an SSIA, and I too will not be voting for the current incumbents (on an number of grounds)- so I have not been bribed, akin to yourself. Unfortunately we are not the general public. If we were told the scheme would be renewed for another 5 years if the government was re-elected- hell, that would probably decide it for most of the country (but for the fact that they seem incapable of following through on election manifestos.....)

We have an interesting time ahead of us. It would be good to look back in 2 or 3 years time and see what comes to pass.

DublinWriter · 01-06-2006 9:28am

whizzbang wrote:

after a reduction in house prices

Keep dreaming.

whizzbang · 01-06-2006 9:35am

DublinWriter wrote:

Keep dreaming.

I will do, in my lovely rented appartment that costs far less to rent than it would be to buy

DublinWriter · 01-06-2006 9:41am

whizzbang wrote:

I will do, in my lovely rented appartment that costs far less to rent than it would be to buy

Only in the short term.

Personally, I rather be paying my own mortgage than someone elses.

whizzbang · 01-06-2006 9:45am

DublinWriter wrote:

Only in the short term.

Personally, I rather be paying my own mortgage than someone elses.

I've no problem paying for a service while reducing my person risk.

If you rather expose yourself to an over heating property market, be my guest.

The_Conductor · 01-06-2006 9:49am

DublinWriter wrote:

Only in the short term.

Personally, I rather be paying my own mortgage than someone elses.

If you are not even covering the interest component of what a 100% mortgage on the property would cost, you are automatically better off renting than buying (particularly if asset price increases look extremely uncertain).

We have this preoccupation with owning property here in this country- renting is seen as a dirty word, as money wasted.

The economic rent on a property may well be far higher than the actual rent you are paying- which means the rent foregone is a cost to the landlord which is not being met.

Just because you are renting property does not make you a bad person

- it can a legitimate economic choice

I'd be thrilled to have a couple of hundred extra a month in disposable income and still get to live in a nice house. At the end of the day the government are probably going to find someway to tax any goodness out of my property anyway.....

FillSpectre · 01-06-2006 9:50am

smccarrick wrote:

I know of a lot of adults living at home, certainly. In a lot of cases its a lifestyle choice though- who wouldn't live at home if they could get away without paying a mortgage, etc...

Not my expereince, no adult I know wants to be at home with their parents. Maybe the younger generation below their 30s is making this choice but then who is complaining about not being able to afford a place???;)

smccarrick wrote:

Certainly the OECD have been wrong about many things in the past. The fact that they are part of a cacophony on voices all shrilling the same thing is irrelevant too. etc...

For over 5 years thay have been specifically wrong about house prices under all the diffenerent "reasons" for the change to happen. They will eventually be right but that is just playing the law of ineveitablity where something will change.

smccarrick wrote:

Officially I am not allowed to have a political opinion.

smccarrick wrote:

but for the fact that they seem incapable of following through on election manifestos.....)

Well maybe you should stop expressing one then. You are completely bias in what you just said. THe governemnt could have been right to pospone inflation. It may instill saving in people and you don't know it will increase inflation.

smccarrick wrote:

I too have an SSIA, and I too will not be voting for the current incumbents (on an number of grounds)- so I have not been bribed, akin to yourself.

Well I like your mind reading ability to know that everybody else has been bribed.

Seriously stop going off on political rants in the place you are a mod. It is irritating and your postition does not give you the right to use this as a soap box.

jdivision · 01-06-2006 9:53am

MarinoMark wrote:

Just listened to news at one, house prices have shot up quicker this Quarter then any time in the last 6 years. by the years end average gaff in Dublin will be 400k. Fcuk that ,Rent forever, have been saving and saving, its like being up the mountains, seeing the top, getting there, and seeing another higher mountain just as you reach the peak !! Thinking of (A)...handing in my notice and emigrate with my 35k savings.....(B)..Buy a nice car, and start going out again...my sex life might improve...(C)..keep saving and hope prices will drop.....oh look.... a flying pig !....(A) is favorite at the moment.....:(

Why don't you buy via the affordable housing scheme. Income limit in Dublin City Council area is e52,000, there's no limit in Dun Laoghaire Rathdown as such but list is currently closed, SDCC limit is e40k and Fingal's is e40k. I got mine at a discount of e65k and couldn't be happier.

empirix · 01-06-2006 9:56am

OP: Take option 1 dude, emigrate, i am just back from OZa nd tbh i made a big mistake coming back, if you have a decent work backround etc, you'll land a decent job in OZ and everything is more or less half price, a motor that costs €30,000 over here will be the equivalent there but in AU$, that is a huge saving, same with houses, except of course uyour looking to buy in a top notch area, then its top dollar, yes its a long way from home, yes you will miss some things, but hey the weather better, theres more to do, you'll have a better standard of life and theres always plenty of Irish clubs/pubs to go if your feeling hoime sick, the only thing you'll really miss is family and friends, but hey sacrifices have to be made and many a man has made such sacrifices to find a better life. Also as some posters think here, in OZ(and everywhere else) your dating/sex life doesn't stop if you are over 30.
Another side note: there are some seriously hot babes in OZ(just a side note but a good one)

I am just taking OZ as an example cause i have lives there, i am sure other counties such as the States etc are the same, Ireland has gone crazy(financially) and thats a fact, i am currently in the process of applying for a migration visa and hope to be out of here after Xmas, travelling back and forth out to Navan every day in the pissings of rain/dreary weather and getting ripped off in pubs/clubs/supermarkets etc is not my idea of a good life. I will miss the Irish sense of humour though as i do firmly believe we are right up there as a great people with a great sense of humour and just damn right helpful and great, did i mention great

DublinWriter · 01-06-2006 9:57am

whizzbang wrote:

If you rather expose yourself to an over heating property market, be my guest.

Even if there is a crash in the next few years (which I don't think will be the case), are you seriously trying to tell me that you'd eventually lose money in 25 years time?

The case of the UK proves this.

empirix · 01-06-2006 9:58am

excuse the spelling!

Won't ever own a house !!

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