Go-Ahead Win 10% of Dublin Bus routes for tender

_Kaiser_ · 10-08-2017 4:13pm

devnull wrote: »

But Dublin Bus will also bid no?

They might or might not.

I think the next 5 years will tell a lot in terms of the viability of this concept in Ireland - there's no reason it shouldn't work of course, but history shows that we never quite manage to copy other examples properly and often completely defeat the original intent in the process.

By the time we get to re-tendering, DB may have decided that it's not worth the effort to try and win these routes back, or GA may decide that the costs/conditions are too prohibitive to reapply, or a change in Government (and policy) may change the ground rules again.

It'll be interesting to see how it all works out, and whether there really WILL be any changes beyond new paint jobs and operator logos.

XPS_Zero · 10-08-2017 4:13pm

http://img.pixady.com/2017/08/125669_integrated_bus_stops.png

This is what the new integrated bus stops will look like (sorry, try as I might I could not find a way to embed it here or even thumbnail without it making the page 7 times bigger)

Just imagine underneath Bus Eireann a second block with DUBLIN BUS a third block with AIRCOACH etc all with their route numbers underneath. 02j3

dfx- · 10-08-2017 4:15pm

devnull wrote: »

But Dublin Bus will also bid no?

And the winner will just be the slightly lesser bid, say 95% of the higher bid. The winning bid could be much much higher, but as long as it slightly less than the other, they should win.

People will very quickly work out what to bid and what the contract is really worth and the bids will converge.

XPS_Zero · 10-08-2017 4:16pm

end of the road wrote: »

nope. nobody is jesus and nobody is perfect.

it really doesn't though. if CIE built any facilities with money gained from some of the commercial interests it has had over the years then no amount of ministers with balls will be able to change the possibility that any transfer of assets from CIE can't be done without compensating the company.

the competition technically hasn't showed it would do a better job then dublin bus, they aren't running the routes yet. they have only won the tender which is only the starting point. also, the NTA are deciding everything, so that is a huge factor which means a blanket statement such as yours can't truely be judged to be accurate (or even inaccurate)

Bits of CIE might make a profit, like Expressway a zillion years ago, but overall it does not make a profit, and ESB having commercial profitable water projects in the middle east did not stop us telling them what to do.

If it's owned by the state it takes orders from the government, end of. That is the entire point of having something in public ownership (though our recent experience with the banks might make people think the thing the state owns is in charge rather than the other way around)

devnull · 10-08-2017 4:18pm

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

They might or might not.

They might not bid, but other bidders who did not bid this time might bid next time.

This bag of routes isn't so operationally easy as it's a bunch of orbital routes which makes planning and working it out more complicated than if it had a bunch of radial routes, I've no doubt that scared off bidders since wherever you build a depot it's not going to be ideal. If you had a bunch of routes to or from the city center it makes it a lot easier.

This is pretty much what was bore out when the NTA held a consultation with companies and interested parties in the past, pretty much all of those private sector bidders interested in bidding said that the orbital nature and fairly low frequency of all of the routes made it less attractive to bid on than if it had at least some radial routes.

devnull · 10-08-2017 4:21pm

dfx- wrote: »

And the winner will just be the slightly lesser bid, say 95% of the higher bid. The winning bid could be much much higher, but as long as it slightly less than the other, they should win.

They could all be much much lower as well, but at the end of the day it's a game of what ifs in this situation that can be twisted either way depending on your viewpoint and which side of the argument that you are on.

What is the main takeaway here though is that an operator can seemingly build a depot and run a service for less than Dublin Bus can just run a service, I was very surprised at that to be honest.

People will very quickly work out what to bid and what the contract is really worth and the bids will converge.

That's called getting complacent, and generally in this country companies in the transport sector that have become complacent with their offering have been overtook by new entrants or other companies, this is generally how it always works in the commercial world.

jimmycrackcorm · 10-08-2017 4:22pm

dfx- wrote:

Which is at the moment to reduce wage costs 'by tender'.

That's not the case. Their objective is to stop unions blackmailing the pubic into paying unjustified wages.

end of the road · 10-08-2017 4:29pm

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

That's not the case. Their objective is to stop unions blackmailing the pubic into paying unjustified wages.

it is the case that the government want to drive down wages by tender. it's unlikely to work but time will tell.
nobody is blackmailing anyone in to paying unjustified wages. if the wages are unjustified they wouldn't be paid.

LeinsterDub · 10-08-2017 4:36pm

end of the road wrote: »

it is the case that the government want to drive down wages by tender. it's unlikely to work but time will tell.
nobody is blackmailing anyone in to paying unjustified wages. if the wages are unjustified they wouldn't be paid.

Wages don't have to go down to if new operators are able to cut the bloat such as excessive back office and OT. Wages for drivers could actually rise. I'm not saying they will just that it's possible.

TallGlass · 10-08-2017 4:41pm

XPS_Zero wrote: »

The NTA owns the Luas depot don't see why there can't be an NTA BUS depot.

You gotta love the people saying "DB won't share their toys", they're a public owned company, all it takes is a minister with some balls to say "yeh - we own you, were not asking permission were just informing you".

The mere fact that anyone could imagine a public company saying no to the executive branch of the state shows how these companies and their unions have been allowed runaway power.

It might be better for went DB are on strike for them to have their own depot, to avoid any of that not passing the picket line type of crack.

Stephen15 · 10-08-2017 4:46pm

end of the road wrote: »

london's bus services have unions, dispite being all privately run. some of them ran by go ahead funnily enough. if the union could get themselves into transdev then they will likely be in go ahead as well.

And if theres a bus strike theres still buses running in London so their unions are pretty much irrelevant.

StreetLight · 10-08-2017 4:54pm

Stephen15 wrote: »

And if theres a bus strike theres still buses running in London so their unions are pretty much irrelevant.

A union's remit to represent its members does not become irrelevant during a strike.

Stephen15 · 10-08-2017 5:00pm

LXFlyer wrote: »

I would imagine that few if any DB drivers will transfer.

They have been guaranteed by the Government that DB retained services will increase to compensate for the loss of these routes, and that no redundancies will take place.

The NTA will continue to set fares and schedules - the new operator will simply be that - an operator.

I wouldn't be suprised if Go Ahead have to give out good contracts in order to lure DB drivers especially those coming towards to the end of their career who would be entitled to pensions from DB anyway. I'd imagine they might have some difficulty getting staff considering when DB were looking for the staff they had to open up the recruitment drive to people without a bus licence.

seamus · 10-08-2017 5:03pm

StreetLight wrote: »

A union's remit to represent its members does not become irrelevant during a strike.

True, but unions in Ireland especially have forgotten that strikes are not the only tool in their box. They've forgotten the purpose of unionisation is to allow negotiations between workers and employers to take place on an equal and unprejudiced footing, without fear of sanction or reprisal. Instead they've placed themselves as a combatant, ready to strike at the mere sniff that the employer may make a change.

Unions should represent the workers in partnership with the employer to ensure that both the welfare of the business and the welfare of the workers are well balanced. i.e. that one is not given priority over the other. That seems to have been forgotten and unions are willing to collapse a business to protect unsustainable wages or working practices.

_Kaiser_ · 10-08-2017 5:10pm

Stephen15 wrote: »

I wouldn't be suprised if Go Ahead have to give out good contracts in order to lure DB drivers especially those coming towards to the end of their career who would be entitled to pensions from DB anyway. I'd imagine they might have some difficulty getting staff considering when DB were looking for the staff they had to open up the recruitment drive to people without a bus licence.

GA have over a year now to get their plans and staff in place. Plenty of time for recruiting and training - wouldn't surprise me if they sent drivers to the UK for this.

Hollister11 · 10-08-2017 5:27pm

When does Go Ahead start operating these routes?

Will they still use Dublin Bus branded buses.

Stephen15 · 10-08-2017 5:31pm

I saw a Wright Streetlite bus today in Blackrock Villlage the branding was going on about how the bus was a hybrid bus. It had UK reg plates. I was wondering is this a bus that the NTA are test driving to give to Go-Ahead.

devnull · 10-08-2017 5:32pm

Hollister11 wrote: »

When does Go Ahead start operating these routes?

From November 2018, some routes will not transfer until February 2019 however.

Will they still use Dublin Bus branded buses.

There will be an overarching brand (likely Transport for Ireland Bus) for all PSO bus services with a small space for a logo showing who operates it, all operators will wear the same livery.

Stephen15 · 10-08-2017 5:41pm

Whats the story with these BE routes that were meant to be tendered also.

120 Dublin–Edenderry–Tullamore
123 Dublin–Naas
124 Dublin–Naas–Portlaoise
126 Dublin–Naas
130 Dublin–Naas–Athy

dfx- · 10-08-2017 5:43pm

devnull wrote: »

They could all be much much lower as well, but at the end of the day it's a game of what ifs in this situation that can be twisted either way depending on your viewpoint and which side of the argument that you are on.

What is the main takeaway here though is that an operator can seemingly build a depot and run a service for less than Dublin Bus can just run a service, I was very surprised at that to be honest.

Yes, they *could* be much lower with lot of interested parties, but in the real world they won't be. There isn't the interest.

The main takeaway is that nobody else committed to a bid than DB and Go Ahead after all this effort, promotion and time put into tendering as an end goal.

devnull wrote: »

That's called getting complacent, and generally in this country companies in the transport sector that have become complacent with their offering have been overtook by new entrants or other companies, this is generally how it always works in the commercial world.

Though the lack of interest betrays the fact they can be complacent. It wasn't just that Go Ahead was the lowest of the private companies, it was the only private company and Dublin Bus were still in second place. Go Ahead can massively or incrementally increase their bid next time just under DB and there's no other private alternative interested.

thomasj · 10-08-2017 5:48pm

Stephen15 wrote: »

I saw a Wright Streetlite bus today in Blackrock Villlage the branding was going on about how the bus was a hybrid bus. It had UK reg plates. I was wondering is this a bus that the NTA are test driving to give to Go-Ahead.

Its meant to replace the single decker buses that are based in Donnybrook (ie for the 44B)

So based on go-ahead taking the 44B route i would say yes

devnull · 10-08-2017 6:03pm

dfx- wrote: »

Yes, they *could* be much lower with lot of interested parties, but in the real world they won't be. There isn't the interest.

There were six companies who were interested in this tender despite the fact that it's a fairly unattractive tender to be honest, because of the spread out nature of the routes, if you read the NTA's market consultation and the responses from operators they say pretty much the same thing, that the spread out nature of these routes makes them less attractive than bundles of routes that contain radial routes and those that serve the city center.

Since this tender contains all of the local and orbital routes the next tender if there is one is likely to include routes that are in bundles by geographical area, which will make it far more attractive for companies to bid on.

The main takeaway is that nobody else committed to a bid than DB and Go Ahead after all this effort, promotion and time put into tendering as an end goal.

Though the lack of interest betrays the fact they can be complacent. It wasn't just that Go Ahead was the lowest of the private companies, it was the only private company and Dublin Bus were still in second place. Go Ahead can massively or incrementally increase their bid next time just under DB and there's no other private alternative interested.

But even in this situation, which I don't believe is the case, the public still are better off, even if only two operators are competing with each other, than just handing the contract to a company automatically like has happened in the past with Dublin Bus. Direct awards never give the best results as there is no incentive to provide value for money or be cost efficient.

This is one bundle of routes in a logistically awkward tender because of the geographical spread of them and the fact an incoming company doesn't have access to depots pre-built spread across the city that Dublin Bus does, which of course will make it less attractive to bidders because the up-front costs will be far more than a bundle of routes that are based in a smaller spread area.

This is not something that I just believe to be the case, it is something that the operators have told the NTA themselves when they went to do a consultation on the tendering process, that the spread of the routes make it harder to run the services in the most cost efficient manner.

The real story here is that Dublin Bus, with over half a dozen depots across the city to work their routes out of, still cost more to operate a service than a company who most likely needs to factor in operating from one depot and also factor in the cost of building such depot. That to me is astonishing.

Stephen15 wrote: »

Whats the story with these BE routes that were meant to be tendered also.

120 Dublin–Edenderry–Tullamore
123 Dublin–Naas
124 Dublin–Naas–Portlaoise
126 Dublin–Naas
130 Dublin–Naas–Athy

That tender is still in progress.

StreetLight · 10-08-2017 6:03pm

thomasj wrote: »

Its meant to replace the single decker buses that are based in Donnybrook (ie for the 44B)

So based on go-ahead taking the 44B route i would say yes

I also saw that bus at the Liffey Valley shopping centre today.

Stephen15 · 10-08-2017 6:08pm

thomasj wrote: »

Its meant to replace the single decker buses that are based in Donnybrook (ie for the 44B)

So based on go-ahead taking the 44B route i would say yes

Yes but these buses did not have any trace of DB livery and driver or the other person on the bus was not in DB uniform. There were no passengers on it.

I read earlier that the NTA were planning on ordering some new single deckers for the tendered out DB routes.

Also the 44b is not going to be tendered out. DB have already placed an order for wright streetlite sds.

devnull · 10-08-2017 6:10pm

The branding and livery is going to go out to a public consultation.

Confirmed by the NTA this evening.

tabbey · 10-08-2017 6:10pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The NTA are more than happy to reply to letters

I got a lengthy reply once, lots of waffle, but the essential issue ignored.

TallGlass · 10-08-2017 6:30pm

devnull wrote: »

The branding and livery is going to go out to a public consultation.

Confirmed by the NTA this evening.

Is it not in everyones interests to keep the DB branding, DB having to re-brand the fleet will cost a few €€€

Stephen15 · 10-08-2017 6:31pm

TallGlass wrote: »

Is it not in everyones interests to keep the DB branding, DB having to re-brand the fleet will cost a few €€€

Not nessecarily DB's buses are resprayed every three years anyway.

devnull · 10-08-2017 6:35pm

TallGlass wrote: »

Is it not in everyones interests to keep the DB branding, DB having to re-brand the fleet will cost a few €€€

Needs to be an integrated over-arching brand if you ask me, the system needs to become more important than the operator, which unfortunately isn't the case now and is a symptom of a system that for a long time has acted as individual parts rather than a Transport for London style organisation.

This will be the NTA's biggest challenge, for the Transport for Ireland brand to become the main brand and encompass everything Transport for London style rather than having operators all doing their own thing in many areas, but I can't see DB for instance simply rolling over and agreeing to that very easily.

In an ideal world the operators would operate the buses and everything else will be left to TFI when it comes to information, apps, maps, journey planning, timetabling, ticketing etc, we need to stop this nonsense where companies do something that TFI have already done merely to have their own brand on something and control of something.

In London bus routes change over all of the time between operators but it makes no difference to the public because they just see it as a London Bus, it makes no difference in terms of information, timetables, apps etc because all of that is done through TFL as a full integrated system, mot people probably don't even know or even care who operates their routes.

tabbey · 10-08-2017 6:37pm

LXFlyer wrote: »

I don't see the 17, 17a, 18, 33a, 45a, 75, 76, 175 etc as "joke routes". They all carry large numbers of passengers.

There are some community routes parcelled in with them but the bundle of routes are far from being irrelevant.

I agree some of them carry large numbers of passengers, and they would carry much larger numbers if the routes were simplified to make them more rapid and reliable, the 75 is the classic example.

The 18 is a bus I used to like, but the traffic is so appalling that neither Dublin Bus, the NTA or anyone else can achieve much, using current road traffic policies. When I used use it sometimes a few years ago, it frequently indicated the destination Donnybrook, whether this was by design or by the driver running over his scheduled hours, or needing a comfort break, I do not know.

The 17 is so indirect that it appears to be a route deliberately created so that certain places can be said to have a service. In reality, people will not use them when they realise how slow it is from A toB.

The 63 is another route created to placate local interests. It could be operated more easily with a minibus, which at least would be easier to manouvre through Monkstown Farm.

The 76 was also another service unreliable due to tortuous routing, although since retirement I cannot claim to have any knowledge of it. Perhaps others may give their experiences.

175? Is this a proposed route or an existing one ?. I am not familiar with it.

The Skerries buses, I cannot comment either, but I fail to understand how an operator can be expected to run buses in Skerries and Ballywaltrim out of one depot.

Go-Ahead Win 10% of Dublin Bus routes for tender

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